C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 001068

SIPDIS


RIYADH FOR RUSS HANKS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/27/2027
TAGS: PINS PGOV KDEM PHUM PINR NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA,S OBASANJO IN TROUBLE IN THE NORTH


REF: ABUJA 829


Classified by Ambassador Howard F. Jeter. Reason: 1.5(b)



1. (U) Summary: President Olusegun Obasanjo's probable
re-election bid faces deep opposition in the North, but
he seems to have a strategy for recovery. Nigeria's
leader benefits from a lack of credible opponents and
the apparent readiness of some Northern elites to join
his government, if the enticement is right. All the
same, growing numbers of Northerners are praying for new
blood. A recent pronouncement by Sokoto Governor
Bafarawa highlighted northern unhappiness. End summary.



2. (SBU) During a recent trip to Kano and Kaduna, DCM spoke
with 15 northern political and business figures, only one of
whom holds a remunerative position in the GON. Just one (not
the one receiving GON money) felt President Obasanjo's
popularity had grown during the preceding six months. The
other 14 saw varying degrees of decline.



3. (C) Recurring themes in the conversations included
interlocutors' strongly-expressed hopes that the U.S. would
"do something" to convince Obasanjo that he was on the wrong
path and to discourage him from seeking a second term. Fear
of violence associated with campaigning was pervasive. More
general concerns about insecurity were also often expressed.
(One businessman commented that the area where he resides had
experienced four armed robberies in 11 years, three of them
in the past two years.) GON failure to address corruption
effectively was also a key theme. VP Atiku Abubakar's
reported interest in Kabo Air came up several times; Kabo
once again won the largest share of the Hajj airlift contract
and once again stranded some pilgrims in Saudi Arabia for
nearly a month after Eid el-Adha.



4. (C) Those who had never liked Obasanjo unsurprisingly
were the most critical. The Obasanjo Administration's lack
of support for agriculture was a particular sore point in
this agriculture-dependent part of the country. However,
even Obasanjo's supporters were showing doubts. Dr. Liman
Ciroma, a highl

y influential northern elder, said he found
himself increasingly isolated when expressing the view that
the North should accept another four years with Obasanjo at
the helm. Indeed, the bill of particulars against the Head
of State was powerful, Ciroma conceded, particularly when
measured against the hopes and aspirations of Northerners.



5. (C) Ciroma is holding his fire in public, while erstwhile
Obasanjo supporter Sokoto Governor Attahiru Bafarawa
delivered a blistering indictment of the Obasanjo
Administration on the closing day of a seminar on peace and
harmony in the North. Ambassador heard from the Chairman of
the Northern Governors' Conference that Bafarawa's speech was
formulated at a Conference meeting and had the endorsement of
all Northern Governors. Held in Kaduna March 27-28, under
the auspices of the Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF), the
seminar brought together many of the best-known Northern
elites. Bafawara blasted Obasanjo and the GON for alleged
anti-Northern biases and failure to deliver on even his most
basic campaign promises. In an effort to blunt the expected
attack and to cast doubt on ACF's claim to speak for the
entire North (not just Hausas, Fulanis and assimilated ethnic
groups), Obasanjo loyalists arranged for pro-OO political
figures from the Middle Belt to announce their support for
the President almost simultaneously. Few of these
individuals pack much political punch, and press play has
focused on interpreting and dissecting Bafarawa's attack to
the near exclusion of reporting the Middle Belters'
encomiums.



6. (C) Ciroma said he and some other northern leaders were
now actively searching for alternatives to Obasanjo. One
option under consideration was former Head of State Yakubu
Gowon; another was former Commonwealth Secretary-General
Emeka Anyaoku. Ciroma admitted that Gowon was past his prime
and that his accomplishments as Head of State were less than
stellar. However, he would likely bring most of the Middle
Belt along, as well as a measure of stability. Anyaoku would
rally Igbo votes while being acceptable to most Northerners,
Ciroma thought. In our view, neither Gowon nor Anyaoku would
inspire many voters; it would take tremendous resources to
make them viable alternatives to current contenders.



7. (C) While Ciroma and many others look to tried and true
political players, younger Northerners (and some of their
elders) grow restless and seek generational change. They
dislike the choices they see before them now: Obasanjo,
Babangida or Atiku. Few have any name to offer; most say
they are praying for divine intervention and express hope
that the USG will "do something" to convince Obasanjo to
"adopt the Mandela option."



8. (C) Though some believe Obasanjo ultimately will not run,
all indications today point to him seeking a second term.
The parade of sycophants calling on him to stay thickens
daily, a sure sign of his own current thinking. Moreover,
some around him (notably Works and Housing Minister Anenih)
are recruiting for the Cabinet, not just for the final year
of this term, but for the next as well. According to one
young Northerner, Anenih's plan is to bring a few old
Northern warhorses, such as Lawal Kaita and Umaru Shinkafi,
out of the stables for the run-up to the 2003 elections in
the belief that their presence will foil efforts to bring
forth a unified Northern challenge. Additional credence is
given to this story by recent generally positive comments on
GON performance and Obasanjo from Kaita ("Tell") and Shinkafi
("Trust"). After the election, Obasanjo would replace the
old warhorses with younger steeds, Anenih is said to be
telling potential younger steeds (in order to keep them from
bucking this strategy). Meanwhile, Obasanjo himself
reportedly told media on April 1 that he was beginning a
14-day fast, in order to obtain proper guidance from God and
the Nigerian people. At the fast's end, he would announce
his intentions for 2003. Thirteen days and counting.
Jeter