AFGHANISTAN'S POLITICAL FUTURE (CORRECTED COPY)

C O N F I D E N T I A L STATE 176819 E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/10/11 TAGS: PREL AF PK SUBJECT: AFGHANISTAN'S POLITICAL FUTURE (CORRECTED COPY) REF: (A)STATE 175414 (NOTAL),(B)ISLAMABAD 5601 (U) CLASSIFIED BY: CHRISTINA B. ROCCA, ASSISTANT SECRETARY FOR SOUTH ASIAN AFFAIRS; REASON: 1.5 (B AND D). (U) THIS IS A CORRECTED COPY OF CABLE PREVIOUSLY SENT WITH SAME SUBJECT. (MRN NOT AVAILABLE) ¶1. (C) ACTION ADDRESSEES SHOULD DRAW FROM POINTS BELOW IN DISCUSSIONS WITH HOST GOVERNMENTS REGARDING U.S. VIEWS ON THE POLITICAL FUTURE OF AFGHANISTAN. NOTING SPECIFICALLY THAT THESE ARE PRELIMINARY THOUGHTS, ACTION ADDRESSEES SHOULD REQUEST HOST COUNTRY INPUT. EMBASSY ISLAMABAD HAS MADE A SIMILAR APPROACH (REF A) TO THE GOP BUT MAY USE THESE EXPANDED POINTS TO AMPLIFY ITS DISCUSSION. ¶2. (C) BACKGROUND: -- AFGHANISTAN'S STABILITY IS PREDICATED UPON HAVING A GOVERNMENT WITHOUT TERRORIST TIES, FRIENDLY TO ITS NEIGHBORS, ABLE TO GOVERN, AND ENGAGED IN OVERALL REGIONAL COOPERATION AND ECONOMIC REHABILITATION. A FUTURE GOVERNMENT WILL LIKELY EMERGE FROM THE SUPREME COUNCIL UNDER FORMER KING ZAHIR SHAH'S SYMBOLIC LEADERSHIP WITH NORTHERN ALLIANCE, MAJOR ETHNIC, PARTICULARLY PASHTUN, AND SECTARIAN GROUPS. AFGHANISTAN WILL NEED INTERNATIONAL ASSISTANCE WITH A SECURITY ARRANGEMENT THAT WOULD PROVIDE STABILITY FOR POLITICAL, ECONOMIC, AND SOCIAL RECOVERY, INCLUDING HOLDING KABUL AND OTHER URBAN AREAS, AND PROTECT THE GOVERNMENT AND INTERNATIONAL ASSISTANCE WORKERS FROM THOSE THAT SEEK TO CONTINUE THE CONFLICT. -- AFGHANS WILL NEED HELP TO FORM A GOVERNMENT THAT IN COOPERATION WITH THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY CAN CLOSE DOWN TERRORISTS' OPERATIONS, ADHERES TO INTERNATIONAL NORMS AND PRACTICES, PARTICULARLY HUMAN RIGHTS AND ISSUES CONCERNING WOMEN, AND FACILITATES SAFE DELIVERY OF HUMANITARIAN AND ECONOMIC ASSISTANCE. CONSULTATIONS WITH COALITION PARTNERS, PARTICULARLY ISLAMIC COUNTRIES AND REGIONAL STATES, WILL BE IMPORTANT IN DETERMINING AND IMPLEMENTING A SECURITY ARRANGEMENT THAT WOULD BE WELCOMED BY THE SUPREME COUNCIL AND A FUTURE AFGHAN GOVERNMENT. ¶3. (C) TALKING POINTS: -- WITH EVENTS MOVING RAPIDLY, WE BELIEVE IT IMPERATIVE TO DISCUSS THE POLITICAL FUTURE OF AFGHANISTAN. WE ANTICIPATE MANY FUTURE, DETAILED EXCHANGES OF VIEWS ON THIS IMPORTANT TOPIC AS EVENTS PROCEED. -- WE WOULD LIKE TO MAKE IT VERY CLEAR THAT WE DO NOT INTEND TO, NOR DO WE BELIEVE WE COULD, DETERMINE THIS FUTURE. -- AS YOU KNOW WE ARE PROVIDING HUMANITARIAN AID TO COMBAT THE PRESENT CRISIS. WE ARE ALSO LOOKING AT HOW THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY COULD WORK TO REBUILD THE ECONOMY IN A FUTURE AFGHANISTAN. -- USG WELCOMES APPOINTMENT OF AMBASSADOR LAKHDAR BRAHIMI AS SECRETARY GENERAL'S SPECIAL ENVOY FOR AFGHANISTAN AND LOOKS FORWARD TO WORKING WITH HIM. WE EXPECT TO ENGAGE IN DISCUSSIONS WITH HIM IN THE NEAR FUTURE REGARDING HIS ROLE. WE ENCOURAGE OTHERS TO BE IN CONTACT WITH HIM AS WELL. -- WE BELIEVE YOUR GOVERNMENT HAS A KEY ROLE TO PLAY IN SOLVING THE PROBLEMS OF AFGHANISTAN. WE WELCOME INCREASED DIALOGUE WITH THE FORMER KING AND BROADENED CONTACTS WITH AFGHANS TO ENCOURAGE ANTI-TALIBAN UNITY. -- WE HAVE ALSO BEEN IN CONTACT WITH THE FORMER KING AT A HIGH LEVEL AND EXPECT TO BE ENGAGING IN SIMILAR DISCUSSIONS WITH BOTH THE NORTHERN ALLIANCE AND OTHER INDEPENDENT AFGHANS, PARTICULARLY PASHTUNS, INSIDE AND OUTSIDE AFGHANISTAN. WE WELCOME THE FORMATION OF A SUPREME COUNCIL FOR NATIONAL UNITY OF AFGHANISTAN COMBINING THE ROME GROUP WITH THE NORTHERN ALLIANCE AND OTHER AFGHAN GROUPS. -- WE ARE LOOKING AT PROVIDING FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE TO THE ROME GROUP TO DEFRAY IMMEDIATE ADMINISTRATIVE EXPENSES. -- ULTIMATELY, IT IS UP TO THE PEOPLE OF AFGHANISTAN TO DETERMINE THEIR OWN FUTURE. THAT SAID, WE BELIEVE THAT THERE ARE CERTAIN GENERALLY ACCEPTED INTERNATIONAL PRINCIPLES WHICH ANY GOVERNMENT WILL NEED TO ADHERE TO. IT WILL NEED TO BE BROAD-BASED, MULTI-ETHNIC, AND GENERALLY REPRESENTATIVE, RESPECT HUMAN RIGHTS, END ALL SUPPORT FOR TERRORISM, AND FOLLOW ACCEPTED STANDARDS OF INTERNATIONAL BEHAVIOR. -- BY DEFINITION, ANY TRANSITION OR FUTURE GOVERNMENT COULD NOT BE COMPOSED OF JUST ONE AFGHAN FACTION. TO BE SPECIFIC, WE DO NOT BELIEVE THE NORTHERN ALLIANCE (COMPOSED LARGELY OF TAJIKS AND UZBEKS) ALONE COULD OR SHOULD RULE AFGHANISTAN GIVEN ITS LIMITED ETHNIC COMPOSITION. THE NA WILL, OF COURSE, HAVE A ROLE IN ANY FUTURE GOVERNMENT, AS SHOULD OTHER SIGNIFICANT ELEMENTS OF AFGHAN SOCIETY. -- WE ALSO UNDERSTAND THAT AFGHANISTAN'S NEIGHBORS HAVE LEGITIMATE NATIONAL INTERESTS RELATING TO AFGHANISTAN. WE BELIEVE THAT ANY FUTURE GOVERNMENT SHOULD TAKE THOSE INTERESTS INTO ACCOUNT. PAKISTAN DOES NOT WANT TO BE FACED WITH A HOSTILE AFGHANISTAN WITH TERRITORIAL CLAIMS. IRAN WANTS THE SHI'A PROTECTED AND NO DRUGS. PAKISTAN AND IRAN WANT REFUGEES TO RETURN HOME. UZBEKISTAN, TURKMENISTAN, AND TAJIKISTAN WANT PEACEFUL BORDERS. -- WE WOULD NOTE, HOWEVER, THAT OTHER NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES ALSO HAVE LEGITIMATE INTERESTS IN THE FUTURE POLITICAL SETUP IN AFGHANISTAN. WE DO NOT SEE ANY IRRECONCILABLE CONFLICT AMONG THESE INTERESTS AS LONG AS AFGHANS AND OUTSIDE INTERESTS ARE FLEXIBLE. -- WE HAVE MADE THESE POINTS TO OUR AFGHAN CONTACTS. -- YOUR COOPERATION IS VITAL AND WELCOMED ON ALL FRONTS. WE EXPECT TO BE IN FREQUENT CONTACT WITH YOU ON THIS TOPIC AND WELCOME YOUR VIEWS. ¶4. (C) BELOW ADDRESSEES SHOULD ADD THE FOLLOWING POINTS: FOR SIX PLUS TWO MEMBERS: -- YOUR COUNTRY, ALONG WITH AFGHANISTAN'S OTHER NEIGHBORS, HAS LEGITIMATE NATIONAL INTERESTS RELATING TO AFGHANISTAN THAT NEED TO BE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT. YOUR COOPERATION IS VITAL TO THE EMERGENCE OF A FUTURE PEACEFUL, STABLE AFGHANISTAN. -- WE ARE CONSIDERING WHEN AND AT WHAT LEVEL THE SIX PLUS TWO MIGHT MEET TO DISCUSS THESE ISSUES. FOR EMBASSY NEW DELHI: -- INDIA HAS A LONG HISTORY WITH AFGHANISTAN AS WELL AS KEY INTERESTS THAT NEED TO BE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT. INDIA, LIKE PAKISTAN, SHOULD NOT BE FACED WITH A HOSTILE AFGHANISTAN. -- INDIA'S COOPERATION IS VITAL AND WELCOMED. WE ANTICIPATE A DIALOGUE WITH INDIA ON REGIONAL IMPLICATIONS OF THIS TOPIC AS THE SITUATION DEVELOPS. FOR EMBASSY TOKYO: -- VERY MUCH APPRECIATE YOUR STRONG INTEREST IN THE ECONOMIC, POLITICAL, AND SOCIAL FUTURE OF AFGHANISTAN. -- WE VALUE OUR BILATERAL EXCHANGES ON THIS ISSUE, BOTH IN TOKYO AND IN WASHINGTON, AS WELL AS ON THE MARGINS OF RECENT MEETINGS IN BERLIN AND GENEVA. -- WE ALSO THINK YOUR SUPPORT FOR PAKISTAN AS IT GRAPPLES WITH ITS ECONOMIC NEEDS IS VERY HELPFUL, ESPECIALLY AS PRESIDENT MUSHARRAF HAS BEEN TAKING RISKS DOMESTICALLY BY JOINING OUR INTERNATIONAL COALITION AGAINST TERRORISM. -- WE VIEW YOU AS AN INTEGRAL PARTNER AS WE FOCUS ON AN ASSISTANCE AND POLITICAL/ECONOMIC RECOVERY PLAN FOR A FUTURE AFGHANISTAN. FOR EMBASSY PARIS: -- WE WERE DELIGHTED TO SEE THAT, IN YOUR EXCELLENT PLAN FOR ASSISTING AFGHANISTAN, YOU ARE CONCENTRATING ON THE SAME AREAS OUR OWN THINKING ENCOMPASSES. FRENCH LEADERSHIP ON THHIS ISSUE WILL ASSURE THAT THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY ADDRESSES THESE URGENT TASKS EFFICIENTLY AND WELL. WE SHOULD STAY IN CLOSE TOUCH ON THE WAY FORWARD. -- WE SHARE YOUR PARTICULAR CONCERNS REGARDING ERADICATION OF OPIUM POPPY CULTIVATION. --WE BELIEVE FRANCE AND OTHER MEMBERS OF THE EU HAVE AN IMPORTANT ROLE TO PLAY IN PROVIDING A BETTER FUTURE FOR THE AFGHAN PEOPLE AND WELCOME THE EU'S EXPERTISE IN DEVISING A RECONSTRUCTION PROGRAMME. ¶5. (U) DUSHANBE MINIMIZE CONSIDERED. POWELL