CHINESE QUIETLY SUPPORT REFORM?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 001171 SIPDIS CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 RANGOO 01171 01 OF 02 282145Z CINCPAC FOR AMBASSADOR TWINING USUN FOR PIPER CAMPBELL E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/26/11 TAGS: PREL PHUM PGOV CH PHUM PGOV CH BM BM PREL SUBJECT: CHINESE QUIETLY SUPPORT REFORM? REF: A) RANGOON 00617 B) KUALA LUMPUR 01573 CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE D'AFFAIRES PRISCILLA A. CLAPP, REASON: 1.5(D) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. THE CHINESE DCM TOLD US THE PRC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE ONGOING POLITICAL DIALOGUE, AND BELIEVES THE MILITARY REGIME IS SINCERE IN ITS DEALINGS WITH AUNG SAN SUU KYI (ASSK). WHILE HE STATED HIS BELIEF THAT OUTSIDE PRESSURE IS COUNTER- PRODUCTIVE, HE GAVE SOME REASON TO BELIEVE BEIJING MIGHT PROVIDE DISCREET SUPPORT FOR RAZALI'S INITIATIVE. END SUMMARY. THE DIALOGUE -------------- ¶2. (C) CHINESE DCM TANG YING TOLD DCM ON 26 JULY THAT CHINA CLOSELY FOLLOWS POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS IN BURMA AND HAS BEEN CONCERNED FOR SOME TIME ABOUT POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC STABILITY IN THIS COUNTRY (REF A). ACCORDING TO TANG, THE PRC SEES BURMA'S FUNDAMENTAL PROBLEM AS POLITICAL. CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 RANGOO 01171 01 OF 02 282145Z ¶3. (C) TANG NOTED THAT BEIJING WELCOMES THE DIALOGUE BETWEEN ASSK AND THE RULING STATE PEACE AND DEVELOPMENT COUNCIL (SPDC) AND HOPES THAT IT WILL, OVER TIME, LEAD TO A MORE STABLE POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT WHICH WILL PERMIT BURMA TO DEVELOP MORE RAPIDLY ECONOMICALLY. HIS GOVERNMENT WAS PLEASED TO SEE THE RELEASE OF POLITICAL PRISONERS AND REOPENING OF A HANDFUL OF NATIONAL LEAGUE FOR DEMOCRACY (NLD) LOCAL OFFICES. ¶4. (C) TANG BELIEVES THAT THE SENIOR SPDC LEADERSHIP IS QUITE SERIOUS AND SINCERE ABOUT TRYING TO REACH AN AGREEMENT WITH THE NLD THAT WOULD RESOLVE THE POLITICAL IMPASSE. HE BELIEVES THE SPDC IS TAKING A LARGE RISK IN ENGAGING IN TALKS, BOTH BECAUSE IT MAY CAUSE DISSENTION WITHIN THE MILITARY ABOUT HOW TO PROCEED, AND BECAUSE IT RISKS FURTHER PRESSURE AND CONDEMNATION FROM THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY IF THE TALKS FAIL. ¶5. (C) TANG ASSERTED THAT THE RESOLUTION OF BURMA'S POLITICAL PROBLEMS IS PRIMARILY A DOMESTIC ISSUE, WHICH MUST BE RESOLVED BY THE VARIOUS BURMESE PARTIES. HE STRESSED THAT FROM BEIJING'S PERSPECTIVE, OUTSIDE PRESSURE OR INTERFERENCE COULD IN FACT COMPLICATE BURMESE RESOLUTION OF THE POLITICAL STALEMATE IN THE COUNTRY. HE SUGGESTED THAT THE BEST THING THE USG COULD DO AT THIS STAGE WAS TO PUBLICLY SUPPORT THE PROCESS. HE BELIEVED THIS WAS THE BEST WAY TO ENCOURAGE THE SPDC TO TAKE FURTHER STEPS. CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 RANGOO 01171 01 OF 02 282145Z ¶6. (C) TANG NOTED THAT CHINA WAS INTERESTED IN THE RAZALI PROCESS, BUT DID NOT OFFER A STRONG STATEMENT OF SUPPORT FOR IT, EVEN AFTER OUR BEING TOLD OF THE IMPORTANCE THE USG ATTACHES TO THIS INITIATIVE. HE DID SAY THAT THE CHINESE AMBASSADOR HAD TRIED TO ATTEND RAZALI'S BRIEFING DURING HIS JUNE VISIT, BUT MISSED IT WHEN HE DID NOT RECEIVE WORD ON THE CHANGED TIME AND LOCATION OF THE BRIEFING. RECENT CHINESE OFFICIAL VISITS -------------- ¶7. (C) TANG EXPLAINED THAT THE RECENT TRAVEL OF YUNNAN PROVINCIAL VICE GOVERNOR SHAO QIWEI TO BURMA WAS TO INSPECT THE PAUNGLAUNG HYDROPOWER PLANT. TANG DECLINED TO ESTIMATE WHEN THIS PLANT (WHICH IS BEHIND SCHEDULE) MIGHT BE PUT INTO SERVICE. HE NOTED THAT THE RECENT VISIT OF THE MINISTER FOR RURAL PLANNING AND LAND USE HAD RESULTED IN AN MOU TO COOPERATE IN MINING. TANG SAID THERE WERE A NUMBER OF SPECIFIC CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ3939 PAGE 01 RANGOO 01171 02 OF 02 282146Z ACTION EAP-00 INFO LOG-00 AID-00 CIAE-00 DODE-00 SRPP-00 EB-00 EUR-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 L-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 NSCE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 SS-00 STR-00 TRSE-00 T-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 PRM-01 DRL-02 G-00 SAS-00 /008W -------------- 0B3FDC 282146Z /69 R 271103Z JUL 01 FM AMEMBASSY RANGOON TO SECSTATE WASHDC 6637 INFO ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS AMEMBASSY BEIJING AMEMBASSY CANBERRA AMEMBASSY DHAKA AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI AMEMBASSY OSLO AMEMBASSY OTTAWA AMEMBASSY SEOUL AMEMBASSY TOKYO AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON AMCONSUL CHIANG MAI USCINCPAC HONOLULU HI//FPA USMISSION USUN NEW YORK USMISSION GENEVA ALL EUROPEAN UNION POST COLLECTIVE C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 RANGOON 001171 SIPDIS CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 RANGOO 01171 02 OF 02 282146Z CINCPAC FOR AMBASSADOR TWINING USUN FOR PIPER CAMPBELL E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/26/11 TAGS: PREL PHUM PGOV CH PHUM PGOV CH BM BM PREL SUBJECT: CHINESE QUIETLY SUPPORT REFORM? PROJECTS IN THIS AREA, BUT COULD PROVIDE NO DETAILS. ¶8. (C) REGARDING THE PLANNED KUNMING ANTI-NARCOTICS SUMMIT INVOLVING CHINA, BURMA, LAOS, AND THAILAND, TANG SAID PREPARATIONS ARE PROCEEDING. WHILE NOT YET SCHEDULED, THERE WILL BE A SENIOR OFFICIALS MEETING, FOLLOWED BY A MINISTERIAL, AND THEN THE ACTUAL MEETING INVOLVING HEADS OF GOVERNMENT. ¶9. (C) COMMENT: AS NOTED IN REF B, RAZALI MAY BE INTERESTED IN PURSUING CHINESE SUPPORT FOR HIS INITIATIVE. OUR DISCUSSIONS WITH TANG LEAD US TO BELIEVE THAT, WHILE THERE WILL BE DISTINCT LIMITS TO CHINESE WILLINGNESS TO PUSH FOR CHANGE PUBLICLY, THE CHINESE EMBASSY HERE MAY BE WILLING TO QUIETLY SUPPORT THE PROCESS. TANG HAS TOLD US PREVIOUSLY THAT HE AND OTHER EMBASSY OFFICERS HAVE ADVOCATED FOR BASIC REFORM IN INFORMAL CONTACTS WITH BURMESE COUNTERPARTS. AS A MAJOR SUPPORTER OF THE SPDC, CHINESE VIEWS, HOWEVER DISCREETLY THEY MAY BE TRANSMITTED, ARE LIKELY TO HAVE AN IMPACT. FROM THE CHINESE STANDPOINT, A MORE STABLE AND ECONOMICALLY VIBRANT BURMA WOULD MAKE A BETTER NEIGHBOR. CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 RANGOO 01171 02 OF 02 282146Z CLAPP CONFIDENTIAL > 2001RANGOO01171 - CONFIDENTIAL