RCD-G'S INITIAL THOUGHTS ON JOSEPH KABILA

C O N F I D E N T I A L PRETORIA 000423 DEPARTMENT FOR AF/S AND AF/C E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/17/2006 TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR CG ZI SF SUBJECT: RCD-G'S INITIAL THOUGHTS ON JOSEPH KABILA CLASSIFIED BY POLCOUNSELOR MDRAGSDALE, REASONS 1.5(B) AND (D). ¶1. (C) THE CONGOLESE REBEL GROUP RCD-G IS WILLING TO WORK WITH NEWLY NAMED DROC PRESIDENT JOSEPH KABILA SO LONG AS HE ADHERES TO THE LUSAKA AGREEMENT AND THE IMPLEMENTATION OF A CEASE-FIRE, RCD-G REPRESENTATIVE TOMAS NZIRATIMANA TOLD POLOFF JANUARY 19. HOWEVER, NZIRATIMANA STRESSED THAT RCD-G WAS CONCERNED ABOUT BOTH KABILA'S POLITICAL AND MILITARY CAPABILITIES AND STRESSED THAT HE WAS HEAVILY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ZIMBABWE. NZIRATIMANA ALLEGED THAT ZIMBABWE PRESIDENT MUGABE SELECTED KABILA AS HIS FATHER'S SUCESSOR BECAUSE JOSEPH KABILA HAS "FULL KNOWLEDGE" OF ALL THE ZIMBABWEAN "BUSINESS DEALS" IN THE DROC. ¶2. (C) ACCORDING TO NZIRATIMANA, THE ALLIED FORCES HAD A "FAILED MISSION" IN NORTHERN PWETO JANUARY 11-12. THIS MISSION RESULTED IN AT LEAST ONE HUNDRED CASUALTIES AND APPEARED TO "SCARE" THE ALLIED FORCES, MAINTAINED NZIRATIMANA. SINCE THIS ABORTED ATTEMPT AT ATTACK, CONTINUED NZIRATIMANA, THERE HAS BEEN NO REPORTS OF FIGHTING IN THE PWETO AREA. ¶3. (C) NZIRATIMANA SAID RCD-G CONTINUED TO MONITOR THE SITUATION IN KINSHASA AND HAD NO PLANS TO EMBARK ON A MILITARY OFFENSIVE. COMMENT -------------- ¶4. (C) THE RCD-G REPRESENTATIVE HAS NOW BECOME THE RCD-G'S OFFICIAL "SPOKESPERSON." HIS VIEWS ARE BEING WIDELY SOLICITED AS HE MAKES THE ROUNDS ON NATIONAL RADIO AND TELEVISION, INCLUDING RADIO 702, FM94.7, SABC, AND ETV SINCE JANUARY 17 ON THE LIKELY OUTCOMES OF THE DEMISE OF KABILA. END COMMENT. BLANEY