C O N F I D E N T I A L PRETORIA 000423

DEPARTMENT FOR AF/S AND AF/C

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/17/2006
TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR CG ZI SF
SUBJECT: RCD-G'S INITIAL THOUGHTS ON JOSEPH KABILA

CLASSIFIED BY POLCOUNSELOR MDRAGSDALE, REASONS 1.5(B) AND (D).



1. (C) THE CONGOLESE REBEL GROUP RCD-G IS WILLING TO WORK
WITH NEWLY NAMED DROC PRESIDENT JOSEPH KABILA SO LONG AS HE
ADHERES TO THE LUSAKA AGREEMENT AND THE IMPLEMENTATION OF A
CEASE-FIRE, RCD-G REPRESENTATIVE TOMAS NZIRATIMANA TOLD
POLOFF JANUARY 19. HOWEVER, NZIRATIMANA STRESSED THAT RCD-G
WAS CONCERNED ABOUT BOTH KABILA'S POLITICAL AND MILITARY
CAPABILITIES AND STRESSED THAT HE WAS HEAVILY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF ZIMBABWE. NZIRATIMANA ALLEGED THAT ZIMBABWE
PRESIDENT MUGABE SELECTED KABILA AS HIS FATHER'S SUCESSOR
BECAUSE JOSEPH KABILA HAS "FULL KNOWLEDGE" OF ALL THE
ZIMBABWEAN "BUSINESS DEALS" IN THE DROC.


2. (C) ACCORDING TO NZIRATIMANA, THE ALLIED FORCES HAD A
"FAILED MISSION" IN NORTHERN PWETO JANUARY 11-12. THIS
MISSION RESULTED IN AT LEAST ONE HUNDRED CASUALTIES AND
APPEARED TO "SCARE" THE ALLIED FORCES, MAINTAINED
NZIRATIMANA. SINCE THIS ABORTED ATTEMPT AT ATTACK, CONTINUED
NZIRATIMANA, THERE HAS BEEN NO REPORTS OF FIGHTING IN THE
PWETO AREA.


3. (C) NZIRATIMANA SAID RCD-G CONTINUED TO MONITOR THE
SITUATION IN KINSHASA AND HAD NO PLANS TO EMBARK ON A
MILITARY OFFENSIVE.

COMMENT
--------------


4. (C) THE RCD-G REPRESENTATIVE HAS NOW BECOME THE RCD-G'S
OFFICIAL "SPOKESPERSON." HIS VIEWS ARE BEING WIDELY
SOLICITED AS HE MAKES THE ROUNDS ON NATIONAL RADIO AND
TELEVISION, INCLUDING RADIO 702, FM94.7, SABC, AND ETV SINCE
JANUARY 17 ON THE LIKELY OUTCOMES OF THE DEMISE OF KABILA.
END COMMENT.


BLANEY