COMMUNIST PARTY LEADERSHIP CHANGES IN THE SOUTHERN PROVINCES (PART 2)

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 HO CHI MINH CITY 000460 SIPDIS STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV AND EAP/PD/JMARTIN STATE ALSO FOR INR/EAP/SEA AND INR/IL/B CINCPAC FOR FPA SECDEF FOR ISA/EA/LSTERN UNCLASSIFIED PAGE 02 HO CHI 00460 01 OF 03 230459Z NSC FOR GENE CHRISTY DEPTTREAS FOR AJEWELL USDOC FOR 4431/MAC/AP/OKSA/HPPHO E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PINR VM DPOL SUBJECT: COMMUNIST PARTY LEADERSHIP CHANGES IN THE SOUTHERN PROVINCES (PART 2) REF: A. 00 HCMC 0231 B. 00 HCMC 0230 ¶1. SUMMARY: AS THE DE FACTO POLICY-SETTERS IN THE PROVINCES, PROVINCIAL COMMUNIST PARTY COMMITTEE LEADERS DETERMINE TO A LARGE DEGREE WHETHER THEIR RESPECTIVE PROVINCES ARE PROGRESSIVE OR BACKWARD LOOKING. COMMUNIST PARTY CONGRESSES HELD IN THE 29 SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PROVINCES AND CITIES (HCMC AND DANANG) IN DECEMBER AND JANUARY WERE THE FIRST PARTY CONGRESSES TO TAKE PLACE SINCE CONGEN OPENED, PROVIDING POST'S FIRST OPPORTUNITY TO EXAMINE NEW PROVINCIAL PARTY LEADERSHIP TEAMS. WOMEN AND MINORITIES REMAIN SUBSTANTIALLY UNDER-REPRESENTED AT THESE HIGHEST POLICY- SETTING POSITIONS. INDIVIDUALS HOLDING TOP POSITIONS AMONG PROVINCIAL PARTY COMMITTEES, PEOPLE'S COMMITTEES, AND PEOPLE'S COUNCIL DEMONSTRATE THE INTERLOCKING RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THESE AGENCIES (DISCUSSED IN PARA THREE). END SUMMARY. ¶2. SEPTEL LISTS THE NEW PROVINCIAL PARTY LEADERS PROVINCE BY PROVINCE. THIS REPORT EXAMINES THE CHANGES IN PROVINCIAL PARTY LEADERSHIP IN TERMS OF DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS AND CAREER PROGRESSION FOR INDIVIDUALS. POST PROVIDED A SIMILAR UNCLASSIFIED PAGE 03 HO CHI 00460 01 OF 03 230459Z SUMMARY OF PROVINCIAL PEOPLE'S COMMITTEE LEADERSHIP CHANGES AND ANALYSIS IN JANUARY 2000 (REFTELS). PARTY, PEOPLE'S COMMITTEE, AND PEOPLE'S COUNCIL NEXUS -------------- -------------- ¶3. AT THE PROVINCIAL LEVEL OF GOVERNANCE, THE PARTY COMMITTEE IS THE POLICY SETTING ORGAN, THE PEOPLE'S COMMITTEE IS THE ADMINISTRATIVE ORGAN, AND THE PEOPLE'S COUNCIL IS THE LEGISLATIVE ORGAN. (NOTE: PEOPLE'S COUNCILS USUALLY MEET ONLY TWICE A YEAR, AND THEIR SESSIONS GENERALLY LAST ONLY A FEW DAYS.) POST HAD NOTICED ON PROVINCIAL TRIPS THAT ONE INDIVIDUAL WOULD OFTEN HOLD TWO POSITIONS AMONG THESE THREE ORGANS. EXAMINATION OF THE DATA IN SEPTEL CLEARLY DEMONSTRATES THIS NEXUS: THE SECRETARY OF THE PROVINCIAL PARTY COMMITTEE IS THE HIGHEST-RANKING OF THE THREE, AND USUALLY HOLDS NO CONCURRENT POSITIONS. THE STANDING (I.E., SENIOR MOST) DEPUTY SECRETARY OF THE PROVINCIAL PARTY COMMITTEE IS USUALLY THE CONCURRENT CHAIRMAN OF THE PROVINCIAL PEOPLE'S COUNCIL. THE DEPUTY SECRETARY OF THE PROVINCIAL PARTY COMMITTEE IS USUALLY THE SIPDIS CONCURRENT CHAIRMAN OF THE PROVINCIAL PEOPLE'S COMMITTEE. ALTHOUGH, THE STANDING DEPUTY SECRETARY OUTRANKS THE DEPUTY SECRETARY OF THE PARTY COMMITTEE IN TERMS OF THE PARTY'S SIPDIS HIERARCHY, THE DEPUTY SECRETARY BY MEANS OF HIS CONCURRENT POSITION AS PEOPLE'S COMMITTEE CHAIRMAN, MAY ACTUALLY BE MORE INFLUENTIAL. MORE DEPUTY SECRETARIES THAN STANDING DEPUTY SECRETARIES ARE PROMOTED TO THE POSITION OF SECRETARY OF PROVINCIAL COMMUNIST PARTY COMMITTEES. THE CONCURRENT POSITIONING OF THE SECOND- AND THIRD-RANKING PARTY OFFICIALS TO HEAD THE PEOPLE'S COUNCIL (LEGISLATIVE ORGAN) AND THE PEOPLE'S COMMITTEE (EXECUTIVE ORGAN) RESPECTIVELY, APPEARS UNCLASSIFIED PAGE 04 HO CHI 00460 01 OF 03 230459Z TO BE A MECHANISM TO ENSURE INTERAGENCY COORDINATION AS WELL AS PARTY SUPREMACY. PROVINCIAL PARTY SECRETARIES -------------- ¶4. IN THE 29 PROVINCES AND TWO CITIES IN VIETNAM'S SOUTH AND CENTER, 11 PARTY COMMITTEE SECRETARIES ARE INCUMBENT IN THEIR POSITION, AND 18 ARE NEWLY SELECTED (TWO PROVINCES DID NOT PROVIDE THAT INFORMATION). ALL 31 SECRETARIES ARE MEN AND THE AVERAGE AGE IS 54 YEARS OLD, WITH THE OLDEST 60 AND THE YOUNGEST 47 YEARS OLD. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN AGE BETWEEN INCUMBENTS AND NEW SECRETARIES. THREE ARE MEMBERS OF ETHNIC MINORITY GROUPS. ONE HOLDS A PH.D. NINE HAVE B.A. DEGREES (TWO HAVE TWO B.A.S). INFORMATION ON EDUCATIONAL LEVELS WAS UNAVAILABLE FOR THE OTHER 21 PROVINCIAL PARTY SECRETARIES. (NOTE: FROM UNOFFICIAL SOURCES, POST HEARD THAT ONE OF THE SECRETARIES HAS ONLY AN ELEMENTARY SCHOOL EDUCATION. IT WOULD BE NO SURPRISE TO LEARN THAT MOST PROVINCIAL PARTY SECRETARIES HAVE LOW FORMAL EDUCATION LEVELS, SINCE MOST MEMBERS OF THEIR GENERATION SPENT THEIR YOUTH IN THE MILITARY RATHER THAN IN SCHOOL. PROVINCIAL LEADERS ALSO OFTEN ATTEND POLITICAL INSTITUTES PART-TIME FROM WHICH THEY ARE AWARDED "DEGREES." THIS ANALYSIS DID NOT INCLUDE THESE ACADEMIC CREDENTIALS. END NOTE.) ¶5. ONLY SEVEN OF 26 PROVINCIAL PARTY SECRETARIES WHO PROVIDED THE INFORMATION HAD SERVED PREVIOUSLY AS SECOND RANKING STANDING DEPUTY SECRETARIES. TWELVE HAD SERVED PREVIOUSLY AS THIRD RANKING DEPUTY SECRETARIES AND/OR PROVINCIAL PEOPLE'S COMMITTEE CHAIRMEN. FOUR HAD SERVED PREVIOUSLY IN CENTRAL PARTY POSITIONS IN HANOI AND WERE APPOINTED PROVINCIAL PARTY SECRETARY BY THE POLITBURO. THREE SERVED IN OTHER POSITIONS BEFORE BECOMING PARTY SECRETARY. FIFTEEN OF 28 PROVINCIAL PARTY SECRETARIES WHO SIPDIS PROVIDED THE INFORMATION DO NOT HOLD ANY CONCURRENT POSITION. THIRTEEN CONCURRENTLY HOLD THE POSITION OF CHAIRMAN OF THE PROVINCIAL PEOPLE'S COUNCIL, BUT EIGHT OF THESE PLAN TO RELINQUISH THAT POSITION IN THE NEAR FUTURE TO THE STANDING DEPUTY PARTY SECRETARY. (POST BELIEVES THE REMAINING FIVE WILL ALSO LIKELY RELINQUISH THE CONCURRENT POSITION.) ¶6. SINCE 18 PROVINCIAL PARTY SECRETARIES ARE NEW TO THE JOB, UNCLASSIFIED PAGE 03 HO CHI 00460 02 OF 03 230500Z POST ASKED WHAT HAPPENED TO THE PREVIOUS SECRETARIES. ONLY TWO PROVINCES RESPONDED TO THAT QUESTION, AND SAID ONLY THAT THE PREVIOUS SECRETARY HAD RETIRED. POST BELIEVES THAT OUTSIDE OF MAJOR CITIES AND PROVINCES, SERVING AS PROVINCIAL PARTY SECRETARY IS THE END OF THE CAREER LINE FOR MOST. STANDING DEPUTY SECRETARIES -------------- ¶7. OF 18 STANDING DEPUTY SECRETARIES WHO PROVIDED THE INFORMATION, SIX HAD SERVED PREVIOUSLY AS HEAD OF THE PROVINCIAL PARTY COMMISSION FOR PROPAGANDA AND EDUCATION. FIVE HAD SERVED PREVIOUSLY AS THE HEAD OF THE PROVINCIAL PARTY COMMISSION ON PERSONNEL AND ORGANIZATION. THREE HAD SERVED PREVIOUSLY AS CITY OR TOWN PARTY COMMITTEE SECRETARIES, AND TWO HAD SERVED IN OTHER PARTY POSITIONS. SIPDIS ¶8. OF 22 STANDING DEPUTY SECRETARIES WHO PROVIDED THE INFORMATION, THREE ARE CONCURRENTLY CHAIRMEN OF THEIR RESPECTIVE PROVINCIAL PEOPLE'S COMMITTEES AND EIGHT ARE CONCURRENTLY CHAIRMEN OF THEIR RESPECTIVE PROVINCIAL PEOPLE'S COUNCILS. ELEVEN HELD NO CONCURRENT POSITIONS, BUT EIGHT OF THESE EXPECT TO ASSUME THE POSITION OF CHAIRMAN OF PROVINCIAL PEOPLE'S COUNCIL IN THE NEAR FUTURE. SIXTEEN OF 22 EITHER SERVING OR EXPECTING TO SERVE CONCURRENTLY AS CHAIRMAN OF THE PROVINCIAL PEOPLE'S COUNCIL CONFIRMS THAT IT IS GENERAL PRACTICE FOR THE STANDING DEPUTY SECRETARY OF THE PROVINCIAL PARTY COMMITTEE TO SERVE CONCURRENTLY AS CHAIRMAN OF THE PROVINCIAL PEOPLE'S COUNCIL. DEPUTY SECRETARIES UNCLASSIFIED PAGE 04 HO CHI 00460 02 OF 03 230500Z -------------- ¶9. OF 14 DEPUTY SECRETARIES WHO PROVIDED THE INFORMATION, NINE HAD SERVED PREVIOUSLY AS VICE-CHAIRMEN OF THEIR RESPECTIVE PROVINCIAL PEOPLE'S COMMITTEES. THE OTHER FIVE HAD WORKED PREVIOUSLY IN A VARIETY OF GOVERNMENT AND/OR PARTY POSITIONS. OF 25 WHO PROVIDED THE INFORMATION, 21 DEPUTY SECRETARIES ARE SERVING CONCURRENTLY AS CHAIRMEN OF THEIR RESPECTIVE PROVINCIAL PEOPLE'S COMMITTEE (A 22ND EXPECT TO ASSUME THAT POSITION IN THE NEAR FUTURE). TWO ARE SERVING CONCURRENTLY AS CHAIRMEN OF THEIR RESPECTIVE PROVINCIAL PEOPLE'S COUNCILS, AND ONE IS THE HEAD OF THE MANAGEMENT BOARD OF A PROVINCIAL OPEN ECONOMIC ZONE. THIS CONFIRMS THAT IT IS GENERAL PRACTICE FOR THE DEPUTY SECRETARY OF THE PROVINCIAL PARTY COMMITTEE TO SERVE SIPDIS CONCURRENTLY AS CHAIRMAN OF THE PROVINCIAL PEOPLE'S COMMITTEE. DEPUTY AND STANDING DEPUTY SECRETARY DEMOGRAPHICS -------------- -------------- ¶10. SINCE THERE WAS NO SIGNIFICANT VARIATION IN THE DEMOGRAPHICS BETWEEN DEPUTY AND STANDING DEPUTY SECRETARIES, THIS ANALYSIS LUMPS THEM TOGETHER. OF 43 WHO PROVIDED THE INFORMATION, ONLY 11 ARE INCUMBENTS, WHILE 32 ARE NEW TO THE JOB. THE AVERAGE AGE IS 52 YEARS OLD, WITH THE OLDEST 59 AND THE YOUNGEST 46 YEARS OLD. OF THE TOTAL OF 55, 52 ARE MEN AND ONLY 3 ARE WOMEN. ONLY TWO ARE MEMBERS OF ETHNIC MINORITY GROUPS. TWO HOLD M.A. DEGREES. FIFTEEN HOLD B.A./B.S. DEGREES (SEVEN OF THESE HOLD MORE THAN ONE DEGREE). ONE SAID HE WAS A HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATE. MORE MAY HAVE UNIVERSITY DEGREES, BUT DIDN'T PROVIDE THE INFORMATION. AS IS THE CASE WITH THE PROVINCIAL PARTY SECRETARIES, FOR HISTORICAL REASONS IT IS LIKELY THAT MOST OF THE DEPUTY AND STANDING DEPUTY SECRETARIES HAVE LOW FORMAL EDUCATION LEVELS. COMMENT -------------- ¶11. IT IS CLEAR FROM THE ABOVE, THAT WOMEN AND MINORITIES REMAIN UNDER-REPRESENTED AT THE HIGHEST PROVINCIAL POLICY- SETTING LEVELS. OF 85 PROVINCIAL PARTY SECRETARIES, DEPUTY AND STANDING DEPUTY SECRETARIES, ONLY THREE ARE WOMEN AND FIVE ARE MEMBERS OF ETHNIC MINORITY GROUPS (ONE WOMAN IS UNCLASSIFIED PAGE 03 HO CHI 00460 03 OF 03 230500Z ALSO AN ETHNIC MINORITY). NOT A SINGLE INDIVIDUAL OF 54 WHO PROVIDED AGE INFORMATION WAS LESS THAN 46 YEARS OLD. IT APPEARS THAT AT THE HIGHEST LEVELS OF PROVINCIAL GOVERNANCE, MIDDLE-AGE MALE TRADITIONALISTS STILL CALL THE SHOTS. RAY UNCLASSIFIED