ZIMBABWE'S CFU DIRECTOR RECOMMENDS PERSONAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 000970 SIPDIS LONDON FOR CGURNEY PARIS FOR BWILLIAMS NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER PASS USAID FOR AFR/SD - DWELLER, AFR/SA - CPALMA, NNEWMAN, AA/AFR - VDICKSON-HORTON E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/09/11 TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM EAGR EAID PINR ZI SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE'S CFU DIRECTOR RECOMMENDS PERSONAL SANCTIONS AND REGIONAL DIPLOMACY TO GET MUGABE TO CHANGE COURSE CLASSIFIED BY ECONOMIC OFFICER SCOTT REMINGTON FOR REASONS 1.5 (B/D). CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 00970 01 OF 03 110550Z REFS: A. HARARE 898, B. HARARE 743 -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) ON FEBRUARY 8, ACTING PRINCIPAL DEPUTY ASSISTANT SECRETARY (PDAS) MARK BELLAMY, CHARGE' EARL IRVING, AND SIPDIS ECONOFF (NOTETAKER) MET WITH COMMERCIAL FARMERS UNION (CFU) DIRECTOR DAVID HASLUCK TO DISCUSS THE CURRENT PLIGHT OF COMMERCIAL FARMERS IN ZIMBABWE. HASLUCK STATED THAT WHILE THE COMMERCIAL FARMING COMMUNITY IS UNDER TREMENDOUS PSYCHOLOGICAL STRESS FROM THE FARM INVASIONS AND VIOLENCE BY WAR VETS, THE MAJORITY OF COMMERCIAL FARMERS ARE BEING ALLOWED TO FARM, AND SHOULD HAVE GOOD CROP YIELDS AT THE END OF THE CURRENT GROWING SEASON. A CONCERN MENTIONED BY HASLUCK WAS THAT IF COMMERCIAL FARMERS DO NOT GET GUARANTEES FROM THE GOVERNMENT OF ZIMBABWE (GOZ) THAT THEY WILL BE ABLE TO HARVEST WINTER WHEAT (DUE FOR PLANTING IN THE APRIL/MAY PERIOD),MANY FARMERS WILL NOT BE ABLE TO PLANT FOR THE SEASON. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE GOZ HAVING TO IMPORT LARGE QUANTITIES OF WHEAT BY THE END OF 2001. ACCORDING TO HASLUCK, THE CFU WILL BE GOING INTO ITS SPECIAL CONGRESS ON MARCH 21 AS A UNIFIED ORGANIZATION. HE EXPECTS THAT AT THE END OF THE CONGRESS THE CFU WILL ISSUE A STATEMENT OF PRINCIPLES REGARDING ITS POSITIONS ON COMMERCIAL FARMING, LAND REFORM AND RESETTLEMENT. HASLUCK STATED THAT THE CFU HAS CONSISTENTLY ATTEMPTED TO ENGAGE THE GOZ ON A SERIOUS BASIS ON THE ISSUE OF CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 00970 01 OF 03 110550Z LAND REFORM SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE FARM INVASIONS IN FEBRUARY 2000, BUT THAT THEY HAVE FOUND NO ONE IN THE GOZ WHO HAS THE AUTHORITY TO NEGOTIATE AN AGREEMENT WHICH WILL BE HONORED BY THE GOZ. HASLUCK WAS EMPHATIC THAT HE DOES NOT FAVOR SANCTIONS ON ZIMBABWE AS A WAY OF ENCOURAGING PRESIDENT MUGABE AND THE GOZ TO CHANGE COURSE, BECAUSE THESE WILL DEAL A DEATHBLOW TO THE ZIMBABWE ECONOMY AND EXTRACT A HEAVY TOLL FROM THE ZIMBABWE PEOPLE. RATHER, HE BELIEVES THAT A COMBINATION OF PERSONAL SANCTIONS PLACED ON PRESIDENT MUGABE AND OTHER KEYS MEMBERS OF THE GOZ (CANCELING OF US VISAS, FREEZING OF BANK ACCOUNTS, ETC.),COMBINED WITH INCREASED "QUIET" REGIONAL DIPLOMACY BY THE HEADS OF GOVERNMENTS OF NIGERIA, SOUTH AFRICA AND OTHER MEMBER STATES OF THE SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY (SADC) COULD LEAD TO POSITIVE CHANGES IN THE COURSES OF ACTION BEING FOLLOWED BY THE GOZ. END SUMMARY. -------------- COMMERCIAL FARMING STRUGGLES ON -------------- ¶2. (C) PDAS BELLAMY ASKED HASLUCK HOW COMMERCIAL FARMERS WERE HOLDING UP IN THE CURRENT CRISIS SITUATION. HASLUCK REPLIED THAT WHILE THE COMMERCIAL FARMERS AND THEIR FAMILIES ARE UNDER TREMENDOUS PSYCHOLOGICAL STRESS AS A RESULT OF THE FARM INVASIONS AND VIOLENCE BY "WAR VETS", THE VAST MAJORITY OF FARMERS ARE BEING ALLOWED TO PROCEED WITH FARMING. HE ADDED THAT IF THE HEAVY RAINS ZIMBABWE HAS BEEN RECEIVING SINCE LAST FEBRUARY LET UP IN TIME, THE COMMERCIAL FARMERS WILL HAVE GOOD TOBACCO, CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 00970 01 OF 03 110550Z SOYBEAN, AND COTTON HARVESTS. THE COMMERCIAL MAIZE HARVEST WILL BE MUCH SMALLER HE ADDED, BUT THIS IS BECAUSE FARMERS HAD PLANTED MUCH LESS HECTARAGE IN MAIZE AS A RESULT OF THE FARM INVASIONS AND LOW MARKET PRICE FOR MAIZE. IN GENERAL, THE CATTLE HERDS OF COMMERCIAL FARMERS ARE QUITE HEALTHY, AND THE RECENT EUROPEAN UNION (EU) DECISION TO CONTINUE TO ALLOW BEEF EXPORTS FROM ZIMBABWE WILL BE A BOON FOR THE FARMERS. HASLUCK REVEALED THAT THE COMMERCIAL FARMING COMMUNITY, WHICH HAS TRADITIONALLY BEEN CLOSE-KNIT, HAS BEEN BROUGHT CLOSER TOGETHER BY THE FARM INVASIONS. THOSE FARMERS WHOSE FARMS HAVE BEEN COMPLETELY SHUT DOWN AS A RESULT OF INVASIONS AND "WAR VET" VIOLENCE ARE BEING HELPED BY OTHER FARMERS ALLOCATING A PORTION OF THEIR CROPS TO THESE FARMERS. ¶3. (C) PDAS BELLAMY ASKED HASLUCK HOW THE FARM INVASIONS WERE AFFECTING THE COMMERCIAL FARMERS FARM LABOR. HASLUCK INDICATED THAT MOST FARMERS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO KEEP THEIR FARM WORKERS ON PAYROLL, EVEN IF THEIR FARMING HAS BEEN INTERFERED WITH. HE ADDED, THOUGH, THAT THERE WAS A LIMIT TO HOW LONG FARMERS COULD CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTO5658 PAGE 01 HARARE 00970 02 OF 03 110550Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AGRE-00 AID-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 USNW-00 DODE-00 DOTE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 FAAE-00 FBIE-00 VC-00 TEDE-00 INR-00 VCE-00 NSAE-00 SS-00 USIE-00 BBG-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /002W -------------- D02121 110550Z /38 R 110547Z MAR 01 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC 8390 INFO SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY AMEMBASSY NAIROBI C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 03 HARARE 000970 SIPDIS LONDON FOR CGURNEY PARIS FOR BWILLIAMS NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER PASS USAID FOR AFR/SD - DWELLER, AFR/SA - CPALMA, NNEWMAN, AA/AFR - VDICKSON-HORTON E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/09/11 TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM EAGR EAID PINR ZI SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE'S CFU DIRECTOR RECOMMENDS PERSONAL SANCTIONS AND REGIONAL DIPLOMACY TO GET MUGABE TO CHANGE COURSE CONTINUE TO PAY THEIR FARM WORKERS IF THEIR OPERATIONS CONTINUE TO BE INTERFERED WITH BY INVADERS AND "WAR CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 00970 02 OF 03 110550Z VETS". IF THE COMMERCIAL FARMS ARE SHUT DOWN, HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF FARM WORKERS AND THEIR FAMILIES WILL BE AFFECTED. -------------- A CONCERN OVER WINTER PLANTING -------------- ¶4. (C) HASLUCK WENT ON TO SAY THAT WHILE COMMERCIAL FARMERS ARE LOOKING TO GENERALLY GOOD HARVESTS AT THE END OF THIS SEASON, THE PICTURE FOR WINTER PLANTING IS QUITE DIFFERENT. HE STATED THAT UNLESS FARMERS ARE ABLE TO GET GUARANTEES FROM THE GOZ THAT THEY WILL BE ABLE TO HARVEST THE WINTER CROPS THEY PLANT, THEY WILL NOT BE ABLE TO GET THE FINANCING THEY NEED FROM BANKS TO PLANT, AND THEY WILL NOT RISK WHAT PERSONAL CAPITAL THEY HAVE. HE ADDED THAT IF MANY FARMERS DO NOT PLANT FOR THE WINTER, THIS WILL SERIOUSLY AFFECT BOTH ZIMBABWE'S FOOD SECURITY AND HARD CURRENCY SITUATION. THE WINTER WHEAT CROP, WHICH IS ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY PLANTED BY COMMERCIAL FARMERS, IS ESSENTIAL FOR THE NATION. IF FARMERS DO NOT PLANT WINTER WHEAT, THE GOZ COULD BE FORCED TO IMPORT UP TO 400,000 METRIC TONS OF WHEAT AT A TIME OF SCARCE HARD CURRENCY. BARLEY AND HOPS ARE TWO OTHER WINTER CROPS THAT COMMERCIAL FARMERS PLANT, AND THE MAJORITY OF THESE CROPS ARE NORMALLY EXPORTED, EARNING HARD CURRENCY FOR THE NATION. THESE CROPS ARE ALSO AT RISK IF THE FARMERS DO NOT RECEIVE GUARANTEES FROM THE GOZ. -------------- THE UNION IS UNITED CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 00970 02 OF 03 110550Z -------------- ¶5. (C) HASLUCK TOLD PDAS BELLAMY THAT THE CFU IS HEADING INTO ITS SPECIAL CONGRESS A UNITED ORGANIZATION. HE STATED THAT NICK SWANEPOEL, A FORMER CFU PRESIDENT, HAD EXCEEDED HIS AUTHORITY WHEN HE ATTEMPTED TO NEGOTIATE A SECRET DEAL WITH THE GOZ ON THE LAND ISSUE (REF A). SIPDIS HASLUCK REVEALED THAT SWANEPOEL HAD BEEN AUTHORIZED TO NEGOTIATE ON BEHALF OF THE CFU IN TRYING TO GAIN GOZ SUPPORT FOR THE PRIVATE SECTOR INITIATIVE ON LAND REFORM (REF B),BUT NOT TO CUT ANY OTHER SECRET DEALS. THE TEMPORARY DISUNITY IN THE CFU WAS CAUSE WHEN SWANEPOEL REVEALED TO THE CFU COUNCIL THAT HE HAD PROPOSED A SECRET DEAL TO THE GOZ THAT INVOLVED, AMONG OTHER SIPDIS POINTS, REPLACING THE CURRENT CFU EXECUTIVE LEADERSHIP, AND REPLACING DIRECTOR HASLUCK WITH A BLACK ZIMBABWEAN. AFTER DEBATING WHAT SWANEPOEL PROPOSED, THE CFU COUNCIL VOTED UNANIMOUSLY TO REJECT THIS DEAL AND TO FULLY SUPPORT THE CURRENT CFU LEADERSHIP. HASLUCK REVEALED THAT HE EXPECTED THE UPCOMING SPECIAL CONGRESS TO DEBATE AND THEN ISSUE A COMPREHENSIVE LIST OF PRINCIPLES REGARDING THE CFU POSITION ON COMMERCIAL FARMING, LAND REFORM AND RESETTLEMENT. -------------- ENGAGING THE GOZ -------------- ¶6. (C) HASLUCK STATED EMPHATICALLY TO PDAS BELLAMY THAT THE CFU HAS CONSISTENTLY TRIED TO ENGAGE THE GOZ ON THE ISSUE OF LAND REFORM AND RESETTLEMENT SINCE THE CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 00970 02 OF 03 110550Z BEGINNING OF THE FARM INVASIONS IN FEBRUARY 2000. THE PROBLEM THAT THE CFU HAS RUN INTO IN THIS EFFORT IS THAT THEY HAVE FOUND NO ONE THAT CAN TALK AUTHORITATIVELY FOR THE GOZ ON THIS ISSUE OR CUT A DEAL WITH THE CFU THAT WILL LATER BE HONORED BY THE GOZ. HASLUCK SAID THAT FINANCE MINISTER SIMBA MAKONI, INDUSTRY AND INTERNATIONAL TRADE MINISTER NKOSANA MOYO AND MINISTER OF LOCAL GOVERNMENT IGNATIUS CHOMBO WERE ALL GOZ OFFICIALS THAT THE CFU BELIEVE THEY COULD WORK WITH, BUT NONE OF THEM CAN BE CONSIDERED TO AUTHORITATIVELY SPEAK FOR MUGABE OR THE GOZ. HASLUCK ADDED THAT ONE POINT THE CFU HAS RAISED WITH THESE OFFICIALS, AND HAS RESONATED, IS THAT IN THE CURRENT ECONOMIC CRISIS THAT GRIPS ZIMBABWE, COMMERCIAL AGRICULTURE IS THE ONE SECTOR OF THE ECONOMY THAT THE GOZ CAN COUNT ON TO PERFORM STRONGLY AND BRING IN THE HARD CURRENCY THAT THE GOZ DESPERATELY NEEDS. HOWEVER, THIS IS ONLY TRUE IF THE GOZ LETS FARMERS FARM. -------------- NO TO SANCTIONS -------------- CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTO5659 PAGE 01 HARARE 00970 03 OF 03 110550Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AGRE-00 AID-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 USNW-00 DODE-00 DOTE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 FAAE-00 FBIE-00 VC-00 TEDE-00 INR-00 VCE-00 NSAE-00 SS-00 USIE-00 BBG-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /002W -------------- D02125 110550Z /38 R 110547Z MAR 01 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC 8391 INFO SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY AMEMBASSY NAIROBI C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 03 HARARE 000970 SIPDIS LONDON FOR CGURNEY PARIS FOR BWILLIAMS NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER PASS USAID FOR AFR/SD - DWELLER, AFR/SA - CPALMA, NNEWMAN, AA/AFR - VDICKSON-HORTON E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/09/11 TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM EAGR EAID PINR ZI SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE'S CFU DIRECTOR RECOMMENDS PERSONAL SANCTIONS AND REGIONAL DIPLOMACY TO GET MUGABE TO CHANGE COURSE ¶7. (C) WHEN PDAS BELLAMY TOLD HASLUCK THAT THE BUSH CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 00970 03 OF 03 110550Z ADMINISTRATION WAS EVALUATING US POLICY TOWARDS ZIMBABWE IN LIGHT OF INCREASING GOZ REPRESSION AND HUMAN RIGHTS ABUSES (AMONG THESE THE BOMBING OF "THE DAILY NEWS" PRINTING PRESS, THE FORCED RESIGNATION OF SUPREME COURT JUSTICE GUBBAY, THE EXPULSION OF TWO FOREIGN JOURNALISTS),HASLUCK STATED CLEARLY THAT HE OPPOSED SANCTIONS BEING PLACED ON ZIMBABWE TO FORCE THE GOZ TO CHANGE ITS BEHAVIOR. HE SAID THAT SANCTIONS WOULD DESTROY THE ZIMBABWE ECONOMY, WHICH IS JUST LIMPING ALONG AS IS, AND THAT THE ZIMBABWE PEOPLE WOULD BEAR THE BRUNT OF SANCTIONS. RATHER THAN SANCTIONS, HASLUCK RECOMMENDED TWO SEPARATE COURSES OF ACTION. ONE COURSE OF ACTION WOULD BE TO ISOLATE PRESIDENT MUGABE AND TOP OFFICIALS OF THE GOZ BY REVOKING THEIR VISAS TO TRAVEL TO THE US, COUPLED WITH FREEZING PERSONAL ASSETS HELD OVERSEAS. THESE ACTIONS WOULD DIRECTLY INDICATE TO MUGABE AND THE GOZ LEADERSHIP THAT THE ACTIONS THEY WERE TAKING IN ZIMBABWE WERE MAKING THEM INTERNATIONAL PARIAHS. THE SECOND COURSE WOULD BE FOR THE USG AND EUROPEAN NATIONS TO USE THEIR LEVERAGE WITH THE GOVERNMENTS OF NIGERIA, SOUTH AFRICA AND THE OTHER SADC COUNTRIES, TO INCREASE THEIR "QUIET" DIPLOMACY AND PRESSURE ON MUGABE TO GET HIM TO CHANGE COURSE. HASLUCK EMPHASIZED THAT IT WAS IMPORTANT THAT SUCH DIPLOMACY AND PRESSURE BE CONDUCTED DISCRETELY, SINCE MUGABE REACTS VERY DEFENSIVELY TO PUBLIC PRESSURE. -------------- COMMENT -------------- CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 00970 03 OF 03 110550Z ¶8. (C) HASLUCK PUT A BRAVE FACE ON THE COMMERCIAL FARMERS' PLIGHT DURING HIS MEETING WITH PDAS BELLAMY. HIS ASSERTION THAT MOST FARMERS ARE BEING ABLE TO FARM THIS SEASON, THAT THEY SHOULD HAVE GOOD HARVESTS OF CROPS SUCH AS TOBACCO, SOYBEANS AND COTTON, AND THAT MOST FARMERS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO CARRY THEIR FARM WORKERS, WAS POSITIVE NEWS IN A SITUATION THAT HAS HAD MOSTLY BAD NEWS SINCE THE FARM INVASIONS BEGAN IN FEBRUARY 2000. HOWEVER, OTHER MEMBER OF THE CFU EXECUTIVE, AND HASLUCK HIMSELF, HAVE SAID ON A NUMBER OF OCCASIONS THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF COMMERCIAL FARMERS DO NOT HAVE THE RESOURCES OR THE PSYCHOLOGICAL STAMINA TO CONTINUE FARMING UNDER THESE ADVERSE CONDITIONS. THE PRESSURE WILL BE ON THE GOZ SOON TO OFFER GUARANTEES TO THESE FARMERS THAT THEY WILL BE ALLOWED TO PLANT AND HARVEST WINTER CROPS. WE BELIEVE THAT THE GOZ WILL OFFER SUCH GUARANTEES, AND HONOR THEM. WE ALSO BELIEVE THAT HASLUCK'S SUGGESTIONS FOR SPECIFIC SANCTIONS DIRECTED AGAINST MUGABE AND OTHER HIGH-LEVEL GOZ OFFICIALS, COMBINED WITH MORE VIGOROUS QUIET DIPLOMACY AND PRESSURE FROM ZIMBABWE'S AFRICAN NEIGHBORS, ARE WORTHY OF CONSIDERATION. END COMMENT. ¶9. (U) PDAS BELLAMY APPROVED TRANSMISSION OF THIS MESSAGE. IRVING CONFIDENTIAL >