MEETING WITH LEADERS OF THE MOVEMENT FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000969 SIPDIS LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS NAIROBI FOR TPFLAUMER E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/09/11 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR ZI SA MDC SUBJECT: MEETING WITH LEADERS OF THE MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 00969 01 OF 02 091557Z REFTEL: HARARE 919 CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE D'AFFAIRES EARL M. IRVING FOR REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: ON MARCH 9, ACTING PRINCIPAL DEPUTY ASSISTANT SECRETARY MARK BELLAMY HELD DISCUSSIONS WITH MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE (MDC) PRESIDENT MORGAN TSVANGIRAI ON THE STATE OF ZIMBABWE'S POLITICAL CRISIS SIPDIS AND WHAT CONSTRUCTIVE ROLE THE U.S. COULD PLAY, IF ANY, TO HELP RESOLVE THE SITUATION. THE MDC LEADERSHIP CALLED FOR AN EMINENT PERSON TO CONVINCE MUGABE TO ALTER HIS BEHAVIOR AND STRESSED THE IMPORTANCE OF HAVING FOREIGN ELECTION MONITORS IN ADVANCE OF THE EARLY 2002 PRESIDENTIAL POLL. THE MDC'S MEETING WITH THE RULING ANC OF SOUTH AFRICA, ZANU-PF'S INTIMIDATION CAMPAIGN, PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION DYNAMICS WERE ALSO DISCUSSED. ON MARCH 8, BELLAMY MET WITH MDC MP DAVID COLTART, WHO ARGUED THAT MOST OF THE POLITICAL KILLINGS AND INTIMIDATION CAN BE TIED DIRECTLY TO 10 OR 12 ZANU-PF LEADERS. THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY SHOULD CONDEMN THE CULTURE OF IMPUNITY THAT PERMEATES THE COUNTRY AND HOLD ACCOUNTABLE THOSE LEADERS WHO BENEFIT FROM IT. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) ON MARCH 9, ACTING PRINCIPAL DEPUTY ASSISTANT SECRETARY MARK BELLAMY, ACCOMPANIED BY CHARGE AND POLOFF SIPDIS (NOTETAKER) MET MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE (MDC) PRESIDENT MORGAN TSVANGIRAI FOR AN HOUR-LONG BREAKFAST MEETING AT THE CHARGE'S RESIDENCE. TSVANGIRAI WAS ACCOMPANIED BY MDC SECRETARY-GENERAL WELSHMAN NCUBE AND CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 00969 01 OF 02 091557Z MDC DIRECTOR OF ELECTIONS AND GWANDA NORTH MP PAUL NYATHI. THE DISCUSSION WAS VERY OPEN AND CORDIAL. ANC NOT ENCOURAGING -------------- ¶3. (C) NCUBE ELUCIDATED ON THE MDC'S RECENT TALKS WITH THE AFRICAN NATIONAL CONGRESS (ANC) IN SOUTH AFRICA. ALL THE MDC LEADERS PRESENT SEEMED DISMAYED WITH THE ANC'S POSITION AT THESE MEETINGS. NCUBE REPORTED THAT THE ANC'S MAIN MESSAGE TO THE MDC WAS THAT IT SHOULD ENGAGE IN DIALOGUE WITH THE RULING ZIMBABWE AFRICAN NATIONAL UNION-PATRIOTIC FRONT (ZANU-PF),AND THAT IT COULD NEGOTIATE A RETURN TO THE RULE OF LAW WITH THE �00A;GOVERNMENT OF ZIMBABWE. TSVANGIRAI REMARKED RHETORICALLY "WHY SHOULD WE NEGOTIATE SOMETHING THAT THE GOZ SHOULD BE DOING ALREADY?" HE ADDED THAT THE ANC SUGGESTED THAT, IF THE MDC AND GOZ WERE SEEN NEGOTIATING A RETURN TO NORMALCY, SOUTH AFRICA COULD THEN PUSH THE IFIS AND INTERNATIONAL DONORS TO RESUME LENDING AND AID PROGRAMS. BELLAMY SAID THE ANC POSITION WAS INCOMPREHENSIBLE AND UNHELPFUL. NCUBE BELIEVED THE ANC TOOK THIS POSITION BECAUSE IT WANTS TO GET OFF THE HOT SEAT SO IT CAN TELL THE WORLD THAT ZIMBABWEANS ARE WORKING OUT THEIR OWN PROBLEMS. ZANU-PF VIOLENCE CONTINUES -------------- ¶4. (C) THE MDC LEADERS WENT ON TO DESCRIBE ZANU-PF'S LATEST INTIMIDATION TACTICS. NCUBE REPORTED THAT THE CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 00969 01 OF 02 091557Z PARTY HAS SET UP WAR VETERAN CAMPS THROUGHOUT MASHONALAND CENTRAL AND EAST PROVINCES, AND THAT THESE WAR VETERANS AND YOUTHS IN THE LAST TWO WEEKS HAVE EMBARKED ON A CAMPAIGN OF VIOLENCE AND TERROR. LOCAL MDC LEADERS AND YOUTH ARE BEING SINGLED OUT FOR SEVERE BEATINGS, NCUBE CLAIMED. GURUVE AND SHAMVA DISTRICTS HAVE BECOME "NO-GO" AREAS FOR THE MDC. MANY LOCAL MDC SUPPORTERS, NOT JUST IN MASHONALAND, ARE NOT ORGANIZING FOR THE PARTY OUT OF FEAR FOR THEIR SAFETY. MANY WILL NOT EVEN SHOW UP A RALLIES WHERE MDC LEADERS SPEAK. IN RELATION TO THE RECENT DEATH OF WHITE FARMER GLORIA OLDS (REFTEL),NYATHI STATED THAT IN BULAWAYO HE OVERHEARD VICE-PRESIDENT MSIKA TALKING ABOUT OLDS' DEATH TO A COLLEAGUE IN NDEBELE. MSIKA REPORTEDLY SAID "WE FIXED HER" AND "THEY THOUGHT WE WERE JOKING." ELECTION DYNAMICS -------------- ¶5. (C) IN REGARD TO THE UPCOMING PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, TSVANGIRAI STATED THAT HE NO LONGER BELIEVES MUGABE WILL SIPDIS HOLD AN EARLY ELECTION. A FREE AND FAIR ELECTION IS NOT POSSIBLE IN THE MASHONALAND PROVINCES BECAUSE OF THE HIGH LEVEL OF INTIMIDATION THEY HAVE SUFFERED SINCE CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ7098 PAGE 01 HARARE 00969 02 OF 02 091557Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 USNW-00 DINT-00 DODE-00 DOTE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 EUR-00 FAAE-00 FBIE-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 LAB-01 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 NSCE-00 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 SSO-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 R-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 SWCI-00 /007W -------------- CFC1A8 091557Z /38 O 091555Z MAR 01 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 8388 INFO SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY AMEMBASSY NAIROBI C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 000969 SIPDIS LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS NAIROBI FOR TPFLAUMER E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/09/11 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR ZI SA MDC SUBJECT: MEETING WITH LEADERS OF THE MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 00969 02 OF 02 091557Z EARLY LAST YEAR. NONETHELESS, THE MDC COULD STILL GARNER 40 PERCENT OF THE VOTES THERE, TSVANGIRAI BELIEVES. THE KEY BATTLEGROUND WILL BE ZIMBABWE'S MOST POPULOUS PROVINCES, MIDLANDS AND MASVINGO, WHERE A CANDIDATE NEEDS TO WIN ONLY 60 PERCENT OF THE VOTE TO WIN THE ENTIRE ELECTION, NCUBE OFFERED. ZANU-PF HAS ANTAGONIZED THESE PROVINCES AND OTHERS TO SUCH AN EXTENT, THAT IT IS DIFFICULT TO SEE THEIR CANDIDATE WINNING A MAJORITY OF VOTES THERE. WHAT CAN THE U.S. DO? -------------- ¶6. (C) BELLAMY ASKED THE MDC LEADERS WHAT ROLE THE U.S. COULD PLAY IN THESE TRYING TIMES. NCUBE SUGGESTED A VISIT BY ANDREW YOUNG WITH PRESIDENT MUGABE MIGHT ENCOURAGE THE PRESIDENT TO MODERATE HIS POLICIES. THE OTHER LEADERS SAID THERE IS REALLY NO INTERNATIONAL FIGURE (OTHER THAN THE QUEEN OF ENGLAND, THEY QUIPPED, AND THAT WAS NOT GOING TO HAPPEN) WHO COULD INFLUENCE MUGABE IN ANY MEANINGFUL WAY. ALL THREE EMPHASIZED THAT THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY MUST "HAMMER HOME" THE MESSAGE THAT VIOLENCE IS NOT A LEGITIMATE CAMPAIGN TOOL, AND IT MUST REPEAT IT OVER AND OVER AGAIN IF IT IS TO HAVE ANY IMPACT. NCUBE STRESSED THE IMPORTANCE OF HAVING FOREIGN ELECTION MONITORS, AND SUPPORTING AND TRAINING A LARGE POOL OF DOMESTIC MONITORS DURING, AND WELL BEFORE, THE ELECTION. ZANU-PF LEADERS MUST BE BROUGHT TO BOOK -------------- CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 00969 02 OF 02 091557Z ¶7. (C) IN A MARCH 8 MEETING WITH BELLAMY, MDC MP DAVID COLTART ARGUED THAT MOST OF THE KILLINGS OF WHITE FARMERS, MDC SUPPORTERS, AND GOVERNMENT OPPONENTS CAN BE TRACED DIRECTLY TO CONSTITUENCIES AND LOCAL ORGANIZATIONS CONTROLLED BY 10 OR 12 ZANU-PF LEADERS, MOST NOTABLY SPEAKER OF PARLIAMENT EMMERSON MNANGAGWA AND MINES AND ENERGY MINISTER SYDNEY SEKERAMAYI. THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY MUST CONDEMN THE CULTURE OF IMPUNITY THAT PREVAILS IN THE COUNTRY, AND PUT POLITICIANS WHO USE VIOLENCE ON NOTICE AND HOLD THEM ACCOUNTABLE, HE SAID. UNLESS THIS MESSAGE IS FORCEFULLY CONVEYED TO THE GOZ, THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE THAT THE UPCOMING PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION WILL BE EVEN REMOTELY FREE AND FAIR, COLTART INSISTED. AN ALL-OUT EFFORT MUST BE MADE STARTING NOW TO ENSURE A LEVEL PLAYING FIELD WITH TRANSPARENT PROCESSES AND CAREFUL MONITORING. IRVING CONFIDENTIAL >