TSVANGIRAI BRIEFS HEADS OF DIPLOMATIC MISSIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 000903 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER LONDON FOR GURNEY PARIS FOR WILLIAMS NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER E.O. 12958: DECL. 03/01/11 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINS PINR ZI SUBJECT: TSVANGIRAI BRIEFS HEADS OF DIPLOMATIC MISSIONS CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE D'AFFAIRES EARL IRVING. REASONS: 1.5 CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 00903 01 OF 03 051245Z (B) AND (D). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (U) IN HIS FIRST-EVER BRIEFING FOR THE HEADS OF DIPLOMATIC MISSIONS, MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE (MDC) PRESIDENT MORGAN TSVANGIRAI SAID ZIMBABWE IS IN A STATE OF "TERMINAL PARALYSIS" DUE TO THE BREAKDOWN IN THE RULE OF LAW AND INCREASE IN GOVERNMENT-SANCTIONED HUMAN RIGHTS ABUSES. TSVANGIRAI URGED THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY TO ENGAGE CONSTRUCTIVELY WITH THE MUGABE GOVERNMENT IN PRESSING IT TO REVERSE COURSE, NOT IMPOSE SANCTIONS, WHICH WOULD HURT ONLY ORDINARY ZIMBABWEANS. IN THIS CONNECTION, THE MDC PRESIDENT WAS CAREFUL TO NOTE HIS PARTY DID NOT CONSIDER CONGRESS'S ZIMBABWE DEMOCRACY BILL TO BE SANCTIONS LEGISLATION, BUT RATHER AN INCENTIVE TO GOOD GOZ BEHAVIOR. TSVANGIRAI EMPHASIZED THE MDC'S COMMITMENT TO EQUITABLE, SIPDIS LAWFUL LAND REFORM THAT IS BASED ON THE PRINCIPLES IDENTIFIED BY THE 1998 DONORS' CONFERENCE ON LAND. TSVANGIRAI THOUGHT IT LIKELY THAT PRESIDENT MUGABE WOULD SIPDIS CALL AN EARLY ELECTION, BUT MASS ACTION WOULD BE APPROPRIATE ONLY IF MUGABE STEALS THE ELECTION OR FINDS AN EXCUSE NOT TO HOLD IT. THE MDC IS MORE COHESIVE THAN IT WAS LAST JUNE AND IS REGAINING SOME POLITICAL MOMENTUM. THE OPPOSITION PARTY IS FOCUSING BOTH ON WINNING THE ELECTION AND ON DEVISING THE POLICIES IT WOULD IMPLEMENT IF IT WINS. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (U) MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE (MDC) PRESIDENT MORGAN TSVANGIRAI BRIEFED HEADS OF DIPLOMATIC MISSIONS ON CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 00903 01 OF 03 051245Z MARCH 2 ON THE OPPOSITION PARTY'S POSITION ON RECENT DEVELOPMENTS. HE WAS ACCOMPANIED BY SEKAI HOLLAND, THE PARTY'S SECRETARY FOR INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS. CHARGE AND POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF WERE IN ATTENDANCE. TSVANGIRAI SPOKE FOR FIFTEEN MINUTES, THEN TOOK QUESTIONS. ¶3. (U) TSVANGIRAI EXPRESSED CONCERN THAT ZIMBABWE IS IN A STATE OF "TERMINAL PARALYSIS," DUE TO SEVERAL CRITICAL FACTORS. FIRST WAS THE "ALARMING" BREAKDOWN IN THE RULE OF LAW, EVIDENCED BY THE EMASCULATION OF THE POLICE AND WAR VETERANS WREAKING HAVOC WITH ABSOLUTE IMPUNITY. THE ESCALATING ATTACKS ON THE JUDICIARY ARE PARTICULARLY DISTURBING, AS THE EXECUTION OF JUSTICE IS COMPROMISED IF NOT EVEN JUDGES ARE SAFE. ¶4. (U) THE SECOND CRITICAL FACTOR WAS THE INCREASE IN GOVERNMENT-SANCTIONED HUMAN RIGHTS ABUSES. ELEMENTS OF THE ARMY, FOR INSTANCE, HAVE BEEN SENT INTO TOWNSHIPS TO BEAT PEOPLE INDISCRIMINATELY, WITHOUT CAUSE OR PROVOCATION. THE MDC LEADERSHIP CONTINUES TO BE HARASSED, SUBJECTED BOTH TO "FLIMSY" CHARGES UNDER AN UNCONSTITUTIONAL LAW (NB: THE LAW AND ORDER MAINTENANCE ACT) ENACTED BY IAN SMITH TO WIELD AGAINST AFRICAN NATIONALISTS, AND PHYSICAL INTIMIDATION, EVIDENCED BY THE RECENT BEATINGS OF TWO MDC MPS. THE GOZ IS TRYING TO MUZZLE THE INDEPENDENT PRESS, INDICATED BY THE BOMBING OF THE DAILY NEWS PRINTING PRESS, THE RELUCTANCE TO ISSUE OPERATING LICENSES TO PRIVATE RADIO BROADCASTERS, AND THE ILLEGAL DEPORTATION OF FOREIGN JOURNALISTS. THE MDC'S 37 ELECTORAL CHALLENGES WERE PROCEEDING IN THE HIGH COURT - - THREE HAVE BEEN HEARD SO FAR -- AND WERE SHINING THE SPOTLIGHT ON THE SERIOUS ABUSES WHICH HAD OCCURRED DURING CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 00903 01 OF 03 051245Z LAST JUNE'S PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION. A COURT DECISION TO SET ASIDE THE RESULTS IN SOME OF THE CONSTITUENCIES, TSVANGIRAI OBSERVED, WOULD CHANGE THE EQUATION IN SIPDIS PARLIAMENT. THE BOTTOM LINE OF THE BREAKDOWN IN THE RULE OF LAW AND TERRIBLE HUMAN RIGHTS SITUATION IS THAT ZIMBABWEANS HAVE LOST CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT GOVERNMENT'S CAPACITY TO RUN THE COUNTRY'S AFFAIRS. THE THIRD CRITICAL FACTOR WAS THE DESTRUCTION OF THE ECONOMY, WHICH TSVANGIRAI PREDICTED COULD NOT LAST ANOTHER FIVE MONTHS UNDER CURRENT CIRCUMSTANCES. ¶5. (U) THE GOVERNMENT OF ZIMBABWE, TSVANGIRAI SAID, NOW HAS TWO OPTIONS. IT COULD CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT REPRESSIVE PATH, WHICH WOULD LEAD INEVITABLY TO ITS OWN DOWNFALL, OR IT COULD REVERSE COURSE. THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY HAS A CRUCIAL ROLE TO PLAY IN CONVINCING THE MUGABE GOVERNMENT TO DO THE RIGHT THING. THE MOST EFFECTIVE APPROACH FOR OTHER NATIONS IS CONSTRUCTIVE ENGAGEMENT WITH THE CURRENT GOVERNMENT, NOT THE IMPOSITION OF SANCTIONS, A STEP WHICH THE MDC DOES NOT ADVOCATE. TSVANGIRAI NOTED RECENT PRESS REPORTS THAT THE ZIMBABWE SIPDIS DEMOCRACY ACT (ZDA) MIGHT BE REVIVED SOON BY THE U.S. CONGRESS. THE MDC, HE SAID, DOES NOT CONSIDER THE ZDA A SANCTIONS BILL BUT AN "INCENTIVE" TO PERSUADE THE GOZ TO REVERSE ITS DAMAGING POLICIES. CONGRESSIONAL PASSAGE OF CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ1712 PAGE 01 HARARE 00903 02 OF 03 051246Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 AMAD-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 INL-00 DINT-00 DODE-00 DOTE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 EUR-00 FAAE-00 FBIE-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 LAB-01 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 IRM-00 STR-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 R-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 PRM-01 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 SWCI-00 /010W -------------- CDADB9 051246Z /38 P 051243Z MAR 01 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8344 INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY AMEMBASSY NAIROBI C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 03 HARARE 000903 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER LONDON FOR GURNEY PARIS FOR WILLIAMS NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER E.O. 12958: DECL. 03/01/11 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINS PINR ZI SUBJECT: TSVANGIRAI BRIEFS HEADS OF DIPLOMATIC MISSIONS THE PROPOSED LEGISLATION, HE THOUGHT, WOULD HELP "KNOCK CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 00903 02 OF 03 051246Z SOME SENSE" INTO THE GOVERNMENT. ¶6. (U) TSVANGIRAI REJECTED CRITICISM THAT THE MDC DOES NOT HAVE A POLICY ON LAND. HE INSISTED THAT THE OPPOSITION PARTY IS COMMITTED TO EQUITABLE, LAWFUL LAND REFORM THAT WILL GUARANTEE FOOD SECURITY AND PROTECT THE COUNTRY'S ECONOMIC BASE. THE MDC OBJECTS TO THE METHODOLOGY OF THE FAST TRACK RESETTLEMENT PLAN, WHICH HE CALLED "RUINOUS." THE PARTY CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN THAT ANY LAND REFORM POLICY MUST BE BASED ON THE PRINCIPLES ENDORSED AT THE 1998 DONORS CONFERENCE. Q'S AND A'S -------------- ¶7. (U) IN RESPONSE TO A NUMBER OF VARIED QUESTIONS FROM THE ASSEMBLED DIPLOMATS, TSVANGIRAI MADE THE FOLLOWING POINTS: PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION -------------- ¶8. (U) TSVANGIRAI THOUGHT IT LIKELY THAT PRESIDENT MUGABE WILL CALL AN EARLY ELECTION. HE THOUGHT THE STATE OF THE ECONOMY -- AND ITS PROGNOSIS FOR RECOVERY -- WOULD BE AN IMPORTANT CONSIDERATION FOR THE PRESIDENT IN MAKING THIS CALL. ASKED WHY THE GOVERNMENT HAD CHARGED HIM RECENTLY WITH INCITING VIOLENCE, THE MDC PRESIDENT SAID THE GOZ ACTION CONSTITUTED "PURE HARASSMENT," AND THAT IT HAD BEEN HOLDING THE POTENTIAL CHARGE OVER HIS HEAD FOR ALMOST SIX MONTHS. IF CONVICTED, HE WOULD BE SENTENCED TO A MINIMUM CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 00903 02 OF 03 051246Z OF SEVEN YEARS IN PRISON AND WOULD NOT BE ABLE TO RUN FOR PRESIDENT. HE WOULD APPEAL A CONVICTION TO THE SUPREME COURT, BUT FELT CONFIDENT THAT THE HIGH COURT WOULD DISMISS THE CHARGE, AS SECTIONS OF THE LAW AND ORDER MAINTENANCE ACT PREVIOUSLY HAVE BEEN DECLARED UNCONSTITUTIONAL. THE LOMA, HE POINTED OUT, IS BEING APPLIED SELECTIVELY, AS PRESIDENT MUGABE AND OTHER SENIOR OFFICIALS IN HIS GOVERNMENT HAVE MADE MUCH MORE "TREASONABLE" STATEMENTS. SEKAI HOLLAND INTERJECTED THAT THE ARREST OR CONVICTION OF TSVANGIRAI COULD BE THE SPARK THAT SENDS ANGRY ZIMBABWEANS SIPDIS INTO THE STREETS IN PROTEST, AND THE GOVERNMENT WAS WELL AWARE OF THAT POSSIBILITY. ¶9. (U) ACCORDING TO TSVANGIRAI, THE MDC HAS POSTPONED MASS ACTION, AS NOW IS NOT THE "RIGHT TIME." THAT ASSESSMENT MIGHT CHANGE, HOWEVER, IF THE GOVERNMENT STEALS THE ELECTION OR AVOIDS HOLDING ONE BY DECLARING A STATE OF EMERGENCY. NEW CONSTITUTION? -------------- ¶10. (U) TSVANGIRAI EXPRESSED HIS SUPPORT FOR A NEW CONSTITUTION, BUT THOUGHT THIS WOULD BE DIFFICULT TO ACCOMPLISH IN THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT. HE COMPARED THE DILEMMA TO THE CHICKEN AND EGG CONUNDRUM, ASKING RHETORICALLY WHETHER IT MADE MORE SENSE TO PUT A NEW BULB IN A DEFECTIVE LAMP, OR TO REPLACE THE LAMP. HE THOUGHT THE BEST WAY TO PROCEED WAS FIRST TO REPLACE THE CURRENT GOVERNMENT WITH ONE WILLING TO ALLOW A CONSTRUCTIVE CONSTITUTION-DRAFTING PROCESS TO MOVE FORWARD. CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 00903 02 OF 03 051246Z RELATIONS WITH SOUTH AFRICA -------------- ¶11. (U) TSVANGIRAI'S RECENT MEETINGS IN SOUTH AFRICA WITH ANC OFFICIALS REPRESENTED A SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE OF ATTITUDE FROM THE SOUTH AFRICAN GOVERNMENT. THE DISCUSSIONS HAD PRODUCED A COMMON UNDERSTANDING THAT THE ANC-MDC DIALOGUE SHOULD BE CONTINUED AT ALL LEVELS. "IT IS NOT TRUE THAT PRESIDENT MBEKI CONDONES WHAT IS HAPPENING IN ZIMBABWE," HE STATED. SANCTIONS -------------- ¶12. (U) ASKED TO CLARIFY HIS STATED OPPOSITION TO THE IMPOSITION OF SANCTIONS AGAINST THE GOZ, TSVANGIRAI PROVIDED TWO REASONS. SANCTIONS WOULD HURT ORDINARY ZIMBABWEANS, NOT THE MEMBERS OF GOVERNMENT AT WHOM THEY WOULD BE TARGETED, AND THEY WOULD TAKE A LONG TIME TO REVERSE, EVEN AFTER AN MDC GOVERNMENT CAME INTO POWER. MDC THEN AND NOW -------------- CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ1713 PAGE 01 HARARE 00903 03 OF 03 051246Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 AMAD-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 INL-00 DINT-00 DODE-00 DOTE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 EUR-00 FAAE-00 FBIE-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 LAB-01 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 IRM-00 STR-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 R-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 PRM-01 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 SWCI-00 /010W -------------- CDADC1 051246Z /38 P 051243Z MAR 01 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8345 INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY AMEMBASSY NAIROBI C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 03 HARARE 000903 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER LONDON FOR GURNEY PARIS FOR WILLIAMS NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER E.O. 12958: DECL. 03/01/11 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINS PINR ZI SUBJECT: TSVANGIRAI BRIEFS HEADS OF DIPLOMATIC MISSIONS ¶13. (U) TSVANGIRAI WAS ASKED TO ASSESS HOW THE MDC HAS CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 00903 03 OF 03 051246Z EVOLVED SINCE THE JUNE PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS. HE SAID IT WAS NATURAL THAT THE MDC WOULD FACE SOME INTERNAL PROBLEMS, GIVEN THE BROAD-BASED NATURE OF THE PARTY MEMBERSHIP. HOWEVER, HE BELIEVED THE PARTY WAS NOW MORE COHESIVE AND WAS BEGINNING TO REGAIN MOMENTUM AS IT PREPARED FOR THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION. THE MDC'S PRIMARY FOCUS IS WINNING THE ELECTION, BUT THE PARTY IS ALSO PUTTING IN PLACE ITS PLAN FOR GOVERNING. THE MDC'S PRIORITIES UPON TAKING OFFICE WOULD BE RESTORING THE RULE OF LAW, REVITALIZING THE ECONOMY, PUTTING THE LAND QUESTION BACK ON A "SANER PATH," AND REENGAGING WITH THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY. COMMENT -------------- ¶14. (C) TSVANGIRAI APPEARED CONFIDENT AND RELAXED, AND HE HANDLED WITH EASE AND HUMOR THE MANY DIFFICULT QUESTIONS ASKED OF HIM. THIS WAS THE FIRST TIME THE MDC PRESIDENT HAS BRIEFED A GATHERING OF HEADS OF DIPLOMATIC MISSIONS, BUT HE INTENDS THE MARCH 2 SESSION TO BE THE FIRST INSTALLMENT IN A REGULAR SERIES OF SUCH GATHERINGS. TSVANGIRAI SEEMS TO HAVE CONCLUDED THAT IT IS IN THE MDC'S SIPDIS INTEREST TO STEP UP ENGAGEMENT WITH THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY, PARTICULARLY AS MUGABE'S GOVERNMENT BECOMES INCREASINGLY ISOLATED. HE ALSO APPEARS TO HAVE RECOGNIZED THAT, AS THE ZIMBABWEAN FIGURE MOST LIKELY TO WIN A FREE AND FAIR ELECTION, HE SHOULD WEIGH IN WITH THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY ON THE IMPORTANT ISSUES OF THE DAY. TSVANGIRAI'S REACHING OUT TO THE HEADS OF MISSION IS A SIPDIS POSITIVE DEVELOPMENT THAT SUGGESTS HE IS MATURING AS A POLITICIAN. CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 00903 03 OF 03 051246Z IRVING CONFIDENTIAL >