ZIMBABWE RULING PARTY OFFICIALS DIVIDED ON MANY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 000871 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER ADDIS ABABA FOR BILL LUKASAVICH CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 00871 01 OF 03 281442Z PASS USAID FOR AFR/SA C. PALMA PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/28/11 TAGS: PGOV PINR KDEM ZI SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE RULING PARTY OFFICIALS DIVIDED ON MANY ISSUES OF THE DAY REFTEL: HARARE 847 (NOTAL) CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE D'AFFAIRES EARL IRVING FOR REASONS: 1.5 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: RECENT CONVERSATIONS BETWEEN CHARGE, POLOFF, AND THREE MID-LEVEL ZANU-PF OFFICIALS REINFORCED THE NOTION THAT ZANU-PF IS NOT THE MONOLITH OF OPINION THAT IS OFTEN CONVEYED IN THE PRESS. CHARGE AND POLOFF SPOKE TO DEPUTY MINISTER FOR EDUCATION, SPORTS AND CULTURE AENEAS CHIGWEDERE, MASVINGO SOUTH MP EDDISON ZVOBGO, AND MASHONALAND EAST PARTY CHAIRMAN PADDY ZHANDA. ALTHOUGH THE THREE OFFICIALS AGREED ON SOME THINGS, SUCH AS THE IMPERATIVE FOR LAND REDISTRIBUTION AND THE WEAKNESS OF THE MDC, THEY DISAGREED SUBSTANTIALLY IN OTHER AREAS LIKE THE DIRECTION OF THE PARTY, ATTACKS ON THE JUDICIARY, AND THE ROLE OF WAR VETERANS. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (U) ON FEBRUARY 26, CHARGE AND POLOFF SPOKE TO DEPUTY MINISTER FOR EDUCATION, SPORTS AND CULTURE AENEAS CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 00871 01 OF 03 281442Z CHIGWEDERE (AND MP FOR HWEDZA DISTRICT),AND MASVINGO "SUPREMO" AND MP FOR MASVINGO SOUTH EDDISON ZVOBGO. POLOFF SPOKE TO MASHONALAND EAST PARTY CHAIRMAN PADDY ZHANDA ON FEBRUARY 27. ALTHOUGH A RANKING PARTY OFFICIAL AND CHAIRMAN OF THE NOW-PRIVATIZED COTTON COMPANY OF ZIMBABWE, ZHANDA HAS NO POSITION IN GOVERNMENT. ZANU-PF MORALE -------------- ¶3. (C) RECENTLY REMOVED FROM THE ZANU-PF POLITBURO, EDDISON ZVOBGO WAS LESS THAN SANGUINE ABOUT MORALE IN THE PARTY. WHEN ASKED HOW THE RECENT SACKING OF FIVE PROVINCIAL EXECUTIVES HAD AFFECTED MORALE, HE STATED THE EFFECT WAS "VERY SERIOUS." (MASVINGO ALLIES OF PRESIDENT MUGABE ALSO SENT ZVOBGO'S FACTION RIDING OUT OF TOWN ON A RAIL AFTER PARTY PROVINCIAL ELECTIONS FEBRUARY 24. SEE REFTEL.) ZVOBGO TOLD US THAT THE PARTY LEADERSHIP SEEMED TO BE "INFLICTING DAMAGE ON THE BODY POLITIC" FOR NO APPARENT REASON. "HOW IS MAKING PEOPLE UNHAPPY THE WAY TO WIN AN ELECTION?" HE ASKED RHETORICALLY. HIS COLLEAGUES IN PARLIAMENT ARE HOPING SOMEONE WILL SET ZANU-PF STRAIGHT, BUT THEY ARE "ABSOLUTELY PETRIFIED" TO SPEAK OUT AGAINST THE PARTY, ZVOBGO SAID. INFORMATION MINISTER JONATHAN MOYO HAS "STRUCK THUNDER" INTO THE HEARTS OF ZANU-PF MPS. ZVOBGO TOLD US THAT HE REMINDED MOYO WHAT HAPPENED TO JOE MCCARTHY IN THE U.S. DURING THE 1950S--OTHER SENATORS WERE AFRAID TO CHALLENGE HIM UNTIL THEY WOKE UP TO HIS MAD CAMPAIGN AND LEFT HIM A "BROKEN MAN" IN THE END. CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 00871 01 OF 03 281442Z "THE SAME WILL HAPPEN TO YOU," ZVOBGO SUPPOSEDLY WARNED MOYO. ¶4. (C) PROVINCIAL PARTY CHAIRMAN ZHANDA ACKNOWLEDGED THAT THERE ARE VOICES OF DISSENT IN ZANU-PF. HOWEVER, THE DISSENTERS ARE MORE CONCERNED WITH SURVIVAL RIGHT NOW THAN CHANGING THE DIRECTION OF THE PARTY. ZHANDA LIKENED THE PARTY'S "COMBATIVE" MODE TO A RISING FLOOD. MOST MEMBERS ARE SIMPLY BEING SWEPT ALONG, FRANTICALLY GRABBING FOR ANY BRANCH THAT COMES ALONG JUST TO STAY AFLOAT. DIRECTION OF THE PARTY -------------- ¶5. (C) DEPUTY MINISTER CHIGWEDERE WAS MORE CONFIDENT ABOUT THE PARTY'S DIRECTION. HE BELIEVES THAT IF PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS WERE HELD TOMORROW, ZANU-PF WOULD WIN BACK HALF THE SEATS IT LOST TO THE MDC LAST JUNE. HE THINKS ZANU-PF WOULD WIN BACK ALL THE SEATS IN HARARE'S HIGH-DENSITY SUBURBS, BUT ADMITTED THE LOW- DENSITY SUBURBS, WHERE MOST WHITES LIVE, ARE A LOST CAUSE. CHIGWEDERE CLAIMED THAT THE PEOPLE NOW SEE ZANU- PF AS THE PARTY OF ACTION THAT CAN DELIVER THEM FROM THEIR MISERY, BECAUSE THE MDC HAS DONE LI