TSVANGIRAI CHARGED WITH INCITING VIOLENCE

C O N F I D E N T I A L HARARE 000767 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER LONDON FOR GURNEY PARIS FOR WILLIAMS NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER E.O. 12958: DECL. 02/14/11 TAGS: PHUM PGOV PINS PINR ZI SUBJECT: TSVANGIRAI CHARGED WITH INCITING VIOLENCE REFS: A) 00 HARARE 5728, B) HARARE 00 5585 CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 00767 161156Z CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE D'AFFAIRES EARL IRVING. REASONS: 1.5 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (U) ACCORDING TO PRESS ACCOUNTS, MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE (MDC) PRESIDENT MORGAN TSVANGIRAI WAS, ON FEBRUARY 15, FORMALLY CHARGED UNDER THE COLONIAL-ERA LAW AND ORDER MAINTENANCE ACT WITH INCITING VIOLENCE. THE CHARGE REFERS TO TSVANGIRAI'S REMARK AT A PUBLIC RALLY LAST SEPTEMBER 30 THAT, IF PRESIDENT MUGABE DID NOT GO PEACEFULLY, "WE WILL REMOVE YOU VIOLENTLY." ALTHOUGH TSVANGIRAI'S STATEMENT WAS CARELESS, HE AND OTHER MDC SIPDIS OFFICIALS HAVE SINCE CLARIFIED, ON NUMEROUS PUBLIC AND PRIVATE OCCASIONS, THAT HE MEANT THAT, IF THE PRESIDENT DID NOT STAND DOWN SOON, A PUBLIC ANGRY AND FRUSTRATED BY THE BREAKDOWN IN THE RULE OF LAW AND THE SERIOUS ECONOMIC DECLINE WOULD FORCE HIM FROM OFFICE. TSVANGIRAI WAS REPORTEDLY ASKED BY THE HARARE MAGISTRATES COURT TO PAY Z$10,000 (US $150) IN BAIL AND ORDERED TO STAND TRIAL IN THE HIGH COURT ON APRIL 30. ¶2. (C) MDC SPOKESMAN LEARNMORE JONGWE CONFIRMED THE PRESS ACCOUNTS IN A FEBRUARY 16 CONVERSATION WITH US. JONGWE TOLD US THAT THE MDC LEADERSHIP HAS NOT DECIDED YET HOW IT WILL RESPOND TO THE FILING OF THE CHARGE. TWO POSSIBILITIES, HE SAID, ARE CHALLENGING THE CONSTITUTIONALITY OF THE LAW AND ORDER MAINTENANCE ACT OR ACTUALLY PROCEEDING TO TRIAL AND REFUTING THE CHARGE AT THAT STAGE. THE MDC'S EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE HAS SCHEDULED A MEETING FOR FEBRUARY 21 TO DECIDE HOW TO PROCEED. CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 00767 161156Z COMMENT -------------- ¶3. (C) THE GOVERNMENT HAS BEEN HOLDING THIS POTENTIAL CHARGE OVER TSVANGIRAI'S HEAD FOR NEARLY FIVE MONTHS. THE FACT THAT IT HAS NOW DECIDED TO PROCEED WITH A CASE IS EVIDENCE THAT THE GOZ INTENDS TO TURN UP THE HEAT FURTHER ON THE MDC'S LEADERSHIP. ALTHOUGH WE ANTICIPATE THE COURT LIKELY WILL DISMISS THE CHARGE, THIS DEVELOPMENT FOLLOWS LAST WEEK'S POLICE DETENTIONS OF MDC VICE-PRESIDENT GIBSON SIBANDA AND NATIONAL YOUTH LEADER NELSON CHAMISA, AND THE BEATING OF MDC SECRETARY FOR SECURITY JOB SIKHALA BY MEN IN ARMY UNIFORMS. THE RECENT MOVES AGAINST THE MDC, THE INDEPENDENT MEDIA AND THE JUDICIARY, COMBINED WITH CALLS THIS WEEK BY SENIOR ZANU-PF OFFICIALS FOR DENYING PASSPORTS TO OPPOSITION SUPPORTERS AND BLACKLISTING LAW FIRMS SUSPECTED OF SUPPORTING THE OPPOSITION, ARE SIGNS OF AN INCREASINGLY DESPERATE GOVERNMENT. IRVING CONFIDENTIAL >