THE CURRENT STATE AND PROJECTED CONSEQUENCES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 000765 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JFRAZER LONDON FOR CGURNEY PARIS FOR BWILLIAMS NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER PASS USAID FOR AFR/SD - DWELLER, AFR/SA - CPALMA, NNEWMAN, AA/AFR E.O. 12958: DECL 02/16/11 TAGS: EAGR PGOV PHUM EAID ZI SUBJECT: THE CURRENT STATE AND PROJECTED CONSEQUENCES CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 00765 01 OF 03 161059Z OF THE "FAST-TRACK" PROGRAM REFS: A. HARARE 644, B. 00 HARARE 7271, ¶C. 00 HARARE 6662, D. 00 HARARE 6190 CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE D' AFFAIRES EARL M. IRVING FOR REASONS 1.5 (B/D). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: THE GOVERNMENT OF ZIMBABWE (GOZ) ANNOUNCED ON JANUARY 15 THE START OF PHASE II OF THE "FAST-TRACK" LAND RESETTLEMENT PROGRAM, AIMED AT RESETTLING A SEGMENT OF THE POPULATION AS COMMERCIAL FARMERS. WHILE THIS PROGRAM APPEARS TO BE BASED ON A PREVIOUS MODEL DEVELOPED IN CONSULTATION WITH DONORS, MODEL A2, THE GOZ HAS NOT STATED THIS PUBLICLY AND FEW SPECIFIC DETAILS OF THE NEW PHASE II PROGRAM HAVE BEEN MADE PUBLIC. MEANWHILE, PHASE I OF THE "FAST-TRACK" LAND RESETTLEMENT PROGRAM, AIMED AT RELOCATING PEASANTS FROM THE RURAL COMMUNAL LANDS ONTO COMMERCIAL FARMS, HAS BEEN ANYTHING BUT SUCCESSFUL. VIOLENT ASSAULTS BY "WAR VETS" CONTINUE AGAINST FARMERS AND FARM WORKERS ON ZIMBABWE'S OCCUPIED FARMS ON A WEEKLY BASIS. THE GOZ HAS STEPPED UP ATTACKS ON THE JUDICIARY OVER ITS RULINGS AGAINST THE "FAST-TRACK" PROGRAM AND FARM OCCUPATIONS. MANY COMMERCIAL FARMERS WE HAVE TALKED TO BELIEVE THAT PRESIDENT MUGABE'S GOAL IS NOT TO DESTROY COMMERCIAL FARMING, BUT TO INTIMIDATE WHITE COMMERCIAL FARMERS SO THAT THOSE WHO REMAIN IN ZIMBABWE WILL NEVER AGAIN BECOME INVOLVED IN POLITICS. AS A RESULT OF THE FARM OCCUPATIONS, THE "FAST-TRACK" PROGRAM'S SHORTFALLS, THE ECONOMIC CRISIS, AND POOR RAINFALL IN SOME REGIONS OF CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 00765 01 OF 03 161059Z ZIMBABWE, THE GOZ WILL NEED TO IMPORT LARGE QUANTITIES OF WHEAT, AND POSSIBLY MAIZE, BY THE END OF 2001, AT A TIME WHEN IT WILL HAVE LITTLE HARD CURRENCY TO PAY FOR THEM. END SUMMARY. -------------- PHASE 2 - "IF AT FIRST YOU DON'T SUCCEED..." -------------- ¶2. (C) ON JANUARY 15 THE GOZ ANNOUNCED THROUGH A FULL- PAGE AD IN THE GOZ-CONTROLLED "THE HERALD" THE BEGINNING OF PHASE II OF "FAST-TRACK," WITH A STATED GOAL OF DEVELOPING A NEW GENERATION OF INDIGENOUS SMALL-, MEDIUM-, AND LARGE-SCALE COMMERCIAL FARMERS. PHASE II 
APPEARS TO BE BASED ON A PLAN TO DEVELOP INDIGENOUS COMMERCIAL FARMERS, WHICH WAS DEVELOPED BY THE GOZ IN CONJUNCTION WITH DONORS IN 1998 AND CALLED MODEL A2. UNDER PHASE II, THE FARM SIZES WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE TYPE OF FARMING TO BE PURSUED, AND THE AREA'S RAINFALL CLASSIFICATION. PHASE II IS AIMED AT ZIMBABWEANS WHO HAVE A PROCLIVITY FOR COMMERCIAL FARMING AND HAVE ASSETS THAT THEY CAN DEVOTE TO THIS ENDEAVOR. THE GOAL OF PHASE I WAS TO GIVE SMALL PLOTS OF LAND TO CURRENT COMMUNAL LAND SUBSISTENCE FARMERS. THE GOZ HAS ALREADY DECLARED PHASE II TO BE A ROARING SUCCESS BASED ON THE THOUSANDS OF ZIMBABWEANS WHO HAVE BESIEGED THE MINISTRY OF LAND FOR THEIR FREE APPLICATIONS. YET, TO OUR KNOWLEDGE, THE GOZ HAS NOT MADE PUBLIC ANY DETAILS AS TO THE SPECIFIC CRITERIA THAT WILL BE USED TO AWARD LAND TO BENEFICIARIES UNDER PHASE II, OR ANY OTHER SPECIFICS ON HOW PHASE II WILL BE IMPLEMENTED. IN ADDITION, THE GOZ CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 00765 01 OF 03 161059Z HAS FEW RESOURCES TO HANDLE EVEN THE MOST RUDIMENTARY ADMINISTRATIVE DETAILS OF PHASE II, LET ALONE TO PROVIDE OTHER SUPPORT, INCLUDING SUBSIDIZED FINANCING, THAT THE FUTURE INDIGENOUS COMMERCIAL FARMERS WILL NEED UNDER THE PROGRAM. -------------- PHASE I OF "FAST-TRACK" A RESOUNDING FAILURE -------------- ¶3. (C) PHASE I OF THE "FAST-TRACK" RESETTLEMENT PROGRAM, WHICH HAS PRINCIPALLY ENTAILED THE ILLEGAL OCCUPATION OF COMMERCIAL FARMS BY "WAR VETS" AND RURAL PEASANTS, IS, BY MOST ACCOUNTS A FAILURE. THE GOZ MINISTER OF LANDS, AGRICULTURE AND RURAL RESETTLEMENT, JOSEPH MADE, HAS PUBLICLY STATED THAT 2597 FARMS TOTALING 5.9 MILLION HECTARES HAVE BEEN GAZETTED FOR COMPULSORY ACQUISITION. MOREOVER, HE HAS CLAIMED THAT 86,000 FAMILIES HAVE ALREADY BEEN RESETTLED ON THREE MILLION HECTARES OF COMMERCIAL FARMLAND. THESE ARE WIDELY BELIEVED TO BE EXTREMELY INFLATED FIGURES. THE MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE (MDC) OPPOSITION STATES THAT AT MOST 5,000 FAMILIES HAVE BEEN RESETTLED TO DATE. MINISTER MADE HAS ADMITTED THAT THE GOZ HAS ONLY PROVIDED TILLAGE SERVICE ON 4,666 HECTARES OF LAND ACQUIRED UNDER "FAST-TRACK". CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ3028 PAGE 01 HARARE 00765 02 OF 03 161100Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AGRE-00 AID-00 AMAD-00 CIAE-00 COME-00 DODE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 EUR-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 IRM-00 STR-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 BBG-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 PRM-01 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /009W -------------- C69483 161100Z /38 R 161100Z FEB 01 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC 8241 INFO NSC WASHDC SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY AMEMBASSY NAIROBI C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 03 HARARE 000765 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JFRAZER LONDON FOR CGURNEY PARIS FOR BWILLIAMS NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER PASS USAID FOR AFR/SD - DWELLER, AFR/SA - CPALMA, NNEWMAN, AA/AFR E.O. 12958: DECL 02/16/11 TAGS: EAGR PGOV PHUM EAID ZI SUBJECT: THE CURRENT STATE AND PROJECTED CONSEQUENCES CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 00765 02 OF 03 161100Z OF THE "FAST-TRACK" PROGRAM THE GOZ MINISTER OF FINANCE AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, SIMBA MAKONI, TOLD AN EMBASSY FSN INFORMALLY THAT ONLY 2,000 HECTARES OUT OF 200,000 ACQUIRED UNDER "FAST- TRACK" HAVE BEEN UTILIZED THIS AGRICULTURAL SEASON. MINISTER OF RURAL RESOURCES AND WATER DEVELOPMENT, JOYCE MUJURU, STATED IN THE JANUARY 20 GOZ-CONTROLLED "THE HERALD" NEWSPAPER THAT THE "FAST-TRACK" PROGRAM HAS SUFFERED FROM A POOR TURNOUT OF BENEFICIARIES. THE CFU AND INDIVIDUAL COMMERCIAL FARMERS HAVE TOLD US THAT MANY OF THE PEOPLE "RESETTLED" UNDER PHASE I HAVE LEFT THE COMMERCIAL FARMS AND GONE BACK TO THE COMMUNAL LANDS AFTER IT BECAME CLEAR THAT THEY WERE GETTING NO ASSISTANCE FROM THE GOZ. THE MINISTER OF LOCAL GOVERNMENT, PUBLIC WORKS AND NATIONAL HOUSING, IGNATIUS CHOMBO, HAS CONFIRMED THIS FACT BY STATING THAT MANY OF THE PEOPLE WHO HAVE BEEN "RESETTLED" HAVE RENEGED ON THEIR COMMITMENT TO TAKE OWNERSHIP OF THE LAND THEY HAVE BEEN GIVEN AND HAVE GONE BACK TO THEIR HOMES. THE SECRETARY-GENERAL OF THE GENERAL AGRICULTURE AND SIPDIS PLANTATION WORKERS UNION OF ZIMBABWE (GAPWUZ),PHILIP MUNYANYI, CLAIMS THAT ONLY 318 FORMER FARM WORKERS' FAMILIES HAVE BEEN RESETTLED UNDER PHASE I, OUT OF A FARM LABOR FORCE OF 500,000. -------------- VIOLENCE CONTINUES ON THE FARMS -------------- ¶4. (C) AS OF THE BEGINNING OF FEBRUARY, THE COMMERCIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 00765 02 OF 03 161100Z FARMERS UNION (CFU) ESTIMATES THAT APPROXIMATELY 1100 COMMERCIAL FARMS REMAIN OCCUPIED. THE LEVEL OF OCCUPATION VARIES, WITH SOME FARMS HAVING ONLY A HANDFUL OF "WAR VETS", WHILE OTHERS HOST A HUNDRED OR MORE SQUATTERS. EACH WEEK THERE ARE NEW REPORTS OF COMMERCIAL FARMERS BEING THREATENED OR ASSAULTED, AND OF THEIR FARM WORKERS BEING BEATEN AND EVICTED FROM THEIR HOUSING. A NEW TACTIC BEING USED BY "WAR VETS" TO HARASS FARMERS AND EXTRACT A CASH FLOW IS TO DRIVE A FARMER'S CATTLE INTO AN AREA WHERE SQUATTERS HAVE PLANTED MAIZE, AND THEN DEMAND EXORBITANT MONETARY COMPENSATION FOR THE DAMAGE DONE TO THE MAIZE BY THE CATTLE. THE CFU REPORTS THAT POLICE GENERALLY RESPOND TO THE MORE SERIOUS CONFRONTATIONS AND VIOLENCE, BUT DO NOTHING TO ARREST THE PERPETRATORS OF VIOLENCE OR PURSUE CRIMES SUCH AS THE THEFT OF FARM PROPERTY. THERE HAS BEEN NO PROGRESS BY THE POLICE IN INVESTIGATIONS OF THE KILLINGS OF SIX WHITE COMMERCIAL FARMERS AND FIVE FARM WORKERS SINCE LAST FEBRUARY. -------------- BLAME THE FAILURE ON THE JUDICIARY -------------- ¶5. (C) MEANWHILE, THE GOZ LABELS THE JUDICIARY AS THE VILLAIN RESPONSIBLE FOR DELAYING THE SUCCESS OF "FAST- TRACK." IT CONTINUES TO IGNORE THE DECEMBER SUPREME COURT RULING DECLARING THE CURRENT "FAST-TRACK" EXERCISE UNCONSTITUTIONAL, AS WELL AS ALL OTHER COURT RULINGS AGAINST "FAST-TRACK." FURTHERMORE, THE GOZ IS STILL IGNORING COURT ORDERS FOR THE POLICE TO REMOVE ILLEGAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 00765 02 OF 03 161100Z OCCUPIERS AND RESTORE THE RULE OF LAW ON COMMERCIAL FARMS. THOUGH THE GOZ FORCED THE HEAD SUPREME COURT JUSTICE TO RESIGN LAST WEEK (REF A),PROBLEMS EXIST AT ALL LEVELS OF THE JUDICIAL SYSTEM. LAST WEEK THE ADMINISTRATIVE COURT DISMISSED THE GOZ'S REQUEST FOR CONFIRMATION ORDERS ON THE ACQUISITION OF TWO COMMERCIAL FARMS UNTIL THE GOZ PRODUCES A WORKABLE LAND REFORM PROGRAM. THE CFU HAS TOLD US THAT AS OF THE BEGINNING FEBRUARY, NO FARMS THAT HAVE BEEN IDENTIFIED FOR COMPULSORY ACQUISITION BY THE GOZ SINCE "FAST-TRACK" BEGAN IN JUNE 2000 HAVE YET BEEN LEGALLY ACQUIRED BY THE GOZ. THE CFU ALSO TOLD US THAT THE GOZ IS NOT MEETING DEADLINES FOR THE DELIVERY OF THE VARIOUS LEGAL NOTICES REQUIRED IN THE COMPULSORY ACQUISITION PROCESS UNDER THE LAND ACQUISITION ACT. -------------- WHAT IS THE GOAL OF THIS WHOLE EXERCISE? -------------- ¶6. (C) IN ADDITION TO THE "FAST-TRACK" RESETTLEMENT PROGRAM BEING VIEWED BY THE OPPOSITION MDC AS A POLITICAL TACTIC BY MUGABE TO RESTORE HIS FLAGGING POPULARITY AMONG THE POOR AND LANDLESS BLACK MAJORITY, IT IS ALSO VIEWED BY THE CFU AND COMMERCIAL FARMERS AS A CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ3034 PAGE 01 HARARE 00765 03 OF 03 161100Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AGRE-00 AID-00 AMAD-00 CIAE-00 COME-00 DODE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 EUR-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 IRM-00 STR-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 BBG-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 PRM-01 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /009W -------------- C69495 161100Z /38 R 161100Z FEB 01 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC 8242 INFO NSC WASHDC SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY AMEMBASSY NAIROBI C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 03 HARARE 000765 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JFRAZER LONDON FOR CGURNEY PARIS FOR BWILLIAMS NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER PASS USAID FOR AFR/SD - DWELLER, AFR/SA - CPALMA, NNEWMAN, AA/AFR E.O. 12958: DECL 02/16/11 TAGS: EAGR PGOV PHUM EAID ZI SUBJECT: THE CURRENT STATE AND PROJECTED CONSEQUENCES CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 00765 03 OF 03 161100Z OF THE "FAST-TRACK" PROGRAM WAY TO PUNISH THEM FOR THEIR PERCEIVED SUPPORT FOR THE OPPOSITION. A VIEW HELD BY SOME MEMBERS OF THE CFU EXECUTIVE BODY, AS WELL AS INDIVIDUAL COMMERCIAL FARMERS WE HAVE TALKED TO, IS THAT MUGABE'S GOAL IS NOT TO DRIVE ALL WHITE COMMERCIAL FARMERS FROM ZIMBABWE. RATHER, IT IS TO DRIVE AN UNDETERMINED NUMBER OF WHITE COMMERCIAL FARMERS OUT OF ZIMBABWE, AND THEREBY OBTAIN THEIR LAND FOR RESETTLEMENT WITHOUT PAYING ANY COMPENSATION FOR THE LAND. AT THE SAME TIME, MUGABE WANTS A CORE GROUP OF WHITE COMMERCIAL FARMERS, WHOSE OPERATIONS WILL BRING IN DESPERATELY NEEDED HARD CURRENCY, TO REMAIN IN ZIMBABWE. THE THINKING GOES THAT THIS REMAINING GROUP OF WHITE COMMERCIAL FARMERS WILL HAVE BEEN SO TRAUMATIZED BY THE CURRENT "FAST-TRACK" RESETTLEMENT EXERCISE, THAT THEY WILL NEVER AGAIN SUPPORT AN OPPOSITION PARTY. -------------- A CONSEQUENCE IS FOOD INSECURITY -------------- ¶7. (C) THE OCCUPATIONS, THE ECONOMY, AND THE LACK OF RAINFALL IN SOME AGRICULTURAL AREAS THIS SEASON HAVE ALL CONTRIBUTED TO A SCENARIO WHERE THE GOZ MAY WELL HAVE TO IMPORT LARGE QUANTITIES OF GRAIN AS EARLY AS AUGUST. AS A RESULT OF THE FARM OCCUPATIONS AND UNCERTAINTIES RELATED TO "FAST-TRACK", THE GOZ AGRITEX EARLY WARNING UNIT REPORTED THAT THE TOTAL AREA UNDER CROPS IS DOWN BY 22 PERCENT FROM LAST YEAR, INCLUDING A 22 PERCENT DROP IN THE AREA PLANTED IN MAIZE. THE CFU HAS TOLD US THAT CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 00765 03 OF 03 161100Z COMMERCIAL FARMERS HAVE PLANTED 48 PERCENT LESS MAIZE (REFS B, C, AND D),AND THAT THE HECTARAGE PLANTED IN WINTER WHEAT WILL ALSO BE REDUCED DRAMATICALLY BECAUSE OF THE FARM OCCUPATIONS. A RECENT ANALYSIS BY THE COMMERCIAL BANK OF ZIMBABWE ESTIMATES THAT THE GOZ WILL NEED TO IMPORT BETWEEN 70,000 AND 130,000 METRIC TONS OF WHEAT BY JULY. AGRITEX HAS ALSO REPORTED THAT RAINFALL HAS BEEN BELOW AVERAGE OVER MOST OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF FEBRUARY, WITH THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY IN NEAR DROUGHT CONDITION. BOTH AGRITEX AND THE USAID FEWS/NET ZIMBABWE HAVE REPORTED THAT COMMUNAL FARMERS IN CERTAIN SOUTHERN DISTRICTS HAVE WRITTEN OFF THEIR MAIZE CROPS THIS SEASON DUE TO THE LACK OF RAINFALL. IN ADDITION, DUE TO PRICE HIKES, COMMUNAL FARMERS NATIONWIDE ARE HARD PRESSED TO AFFORD THE MID- SEASON FERTILIZER THEIR CROPS NEED. THE JANUARY USAID FEWS/NET ZIMBABWE MONTHLY FOOD SECURITY UPDATE ESTIMATES THAT IF ZIMBABWE FAILS TO RECEIVE SUFFICIENT RAINFALL IN ITS BREADBASKET REGION DURING THE REMAINDER OF FEBRUARY, A MAIZE PRODUCTION DEFICIT IS POSSIBLE THAT COULD REQUIRE THE GOZ TO IMPORT BETWEEN 200,000 AND 400,000 METRIC TONS OF MAIZE BY THE END OF 2001. ¶8. (C) COMMENT: IT IS BECOMING MORE CLEAR THAT AN AGRICULTURAL DISASTER IS LOOMING IN ZIMBABWE. WHILE MUGABE MAY STILL REAP POLITICAL BENEFITS FROM THE "FAST- TRACK" RESETTLEMENT EXERCISE AMONG POOR AND LANDLESS ZIMBABWEANS, AND WITH PHASE II, CUT INTO THE MDC'S CORE URBAN SUPPORT, IT IS CLEAR THAT FROM AN ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVE THE "FAST-TRACK" RESETTLEMENT PROGRAM HAS SUCCEEDED ONLY AT DISRUPTING PRODUCTION ON THE COUNTRY'S CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 00765 03 OF 03 161100Z COMMERCIAL FARMS, WHILE PROVIDING NO VIABLE SOLUTION TO THE NEEDS OF LANDLESS PEOPLE AND THOSE LIVING ON MARGINAL LAND IN THE COMMUNAL AREAS. BASED ON THE TRACK RECORD OF PHASE I, WE DOUBT THAT PHASE II WILL BE ANY MORE SUCCESSFUL AT ITS GOAL OF DEVELOPING "INSTANT" INDIGENOUS COMMERCIAL FARMERS. HAVING DRIVEN AWAY NEARLY ALL FOREIGN INVESTMENT AND MOST FOREIGN TOURISTS, THE GOZ DOES NOT AND PROBABLY WILL NOT HAVE THE HARD CURRENCY NEEDED TO PAY FOR GRAIN IMPORTS LATER THIS YEAR. THE PROJECTED HARD CURRENCY EARNINGS FROM THE SALE OF THE NATION'S TOBACCO CROP BEGINNING IN APRIL HAVE ALREADY BEEN SPENT OR ALLOCATED BY THE GOZ, LEAVING LITTLE FOR GRAIN IMPORTS. EVEN IF THERE IS AN IMMEDIATE ABOUT-FACE ON THE GOZ'S LAND AND ECONOMIC POLICIES, A DEVELOPMENT WE DO NOT FORESEE, THE GOZ WILL VERY LIKELY NEED EXTERNAL ASSISTANCE TO FEED ITS PEOPLE BY THE END OF 2001. END COMMENT. IRVING CONFIDENTIAL >