ZANU-PF SEEKS TO NEUTRALIZE LABOR SUPPORT FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000661 SIPDIS ILAB FOR RSHEPHARD LONDON FOR CGURNEY PARIS FOR BWILLIAMS NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER PASS USAID FOR AFR/SD - DWELLER, AFR/SA - CPALMA, NNEWMAN, AA/AFR E.O. 12958: DECL 02/07/11 TAGS: ELAB PGOV PHUM PINR SUBJECT: ZANU-PF SEEKS TO NEUTRALIZE LABOR SUPPORT FOR MDC REFS: A. HARARE 612, B. HARARE 573, C. 00 HARARE 3680 CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE D' AFFAIRES EARL M. IRVING FOR REASONS 1.5 (B/D). -------------- WHAT PRICE A PRO-ZANU-PF UNION LEADERSHIP? -------------- ¶1. (C) ON FEBRUARY 1, CHARGE, ACCOMPANIED BY POLOFF AND LABOFF, MET WITH BRIAN RAFTOPOULOS (PROTECT),A RESEARCH FELLOW IN THE INSTITUTE OF DEVELOPMENT STUDIES AT THE UNIVERSITY OF ZIMBABWE, AND AN INSIGHTFUL CONTACT REGARDING THE LOCAL POLITICAL SCENE. RAFTOPOULOS TOLD US THAT HE HAS NO DOUBTS THAT ZANU-PF IS TRYING TO BUY THE ELECTION OF A MORE FRIENDLY LEADERSHIP AT THE ZIMBABWE CONGRESS OF TRADE UNIONS (ZCTU),IN ORDER TO NEUTRALIZE LABOR AS A RICH SOURCE OF ORGANIZATIONAL SUPPORT FOR THE MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE (MDC). HE HAS HEARD FOR EXAMPLE, THAT THE ZANU-PF/GOZ HAS PAID THE ARREARAGES OF TEN UNIONS AFFILIATED WITH THE ZCTU, WHICH ALLOWS THEM TO PARTICIPATE IN THE UPCOMING CONGRESS FEBRUARY 23-25 IN MASVINGO AND GIVES THEM VOTING PRIVILEGES. THE FEBRUARY 1-7 EDITION OF THE INDEPENDENT "FINANCIAL GAZETTE" DESCRIBED A ZANU-PF/GOZ PLOT TO RIG THE UPCOMING CONGRESS ELECTIONS, INCLUDING THE EXISTENCE OF A SLUSH FUND TO BE USED TOWARDS THIS END AND CONTROLLED BY THE GOZ CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 00661 01 OF 02 071508Z ORGANIZATION (CIO). (NOTE: PER REFTELS THE ACTING SECRETARY-GENERAL OF THE ZCTU, ISIDORE ZINDOGA, IS SIPDIS BELIEVED TO BE PRO-ZANU-PF, AND IF ELECTED AS SECRETARY GENERAL, WOULD SEEK TO SEVER THE STRONG TIES BETWEEN THE ZCTU AND THE MDC.) -------------- WHY NOT JUST MANHANDLE THE ZCTU? -------------- ¶2. (C) RAFTOPOULOS ALSO BELIEVES THAT THE RULING PARTY WILL SEND WAR VETERANS TO DEMONSTRATE OUTSIDE THE CONGRESS VENUE IN MASVINGO, BUT THAT THE PARTY WILL NOT TRY HEAVY-HANDED INTIMIDATION TACTICS LIKE THOSE USED IN THE RECENT PARLIAMENTARY BY-ELECTIONS. THE UNION MEMBERSHIP OF THE ZCTU WOULD NOT BE INTIMIDATED BY THESE TACTICS, HE ADDED, AND THEY WOULD LIKELY BACKFIRE AND LEAD TO THE ELECTION OF PRO-MDC LEADERS. RAFTOPOULOS EXPECTS THAT ZANU-PF WILL STEP UP EFFORTS TO BRIBE INDIVIDUAL UNION LEADERS AS THE CONGRESS APPROACHES, AS WELL AS RUN STORIES IN THE MEDIA ON HOW THE MDC IS TRYING TO CONTROL THE ZCTU FOR ITS OWN SELFISH AND NEFARIOUS PURPOSES. THE JANUARY 31 EDITION OF THE GOZ-CONTROLLED "THE HERALD" RAN A FEATURE STORY ENTITLED "ZCTU: TRADE UNIONISM RISKS BEING SACRIFICED ON THE PEDESTAL OF POLITICAL GREED." THE STORY CLAIMED THAT THE TRADE UNION MOVEMENT WOULD SUFFER IF ITS MEMBERSHIP ALLOWS IT TO BE AFFILIATED WITH THE MDC. -------------- CONGRESS OUTCOME IS CRITICAL TO THE MDC CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 00661 01 OF 02 071508Z -------------- ¶3. (C) RAFTOPOULOS MADE CLEAR THAT THE MDC'S FUTURE SUCCESS AS A POLITICAL PARTY DEPENDS ON CONTINUED SUPPORT FROM THE ZCTU. ANY ATTEMPT AT MASS ACTION BY THE MDC REQUIRES THE SUPPORT AND ORGANIZING RESOURCES OF THE ZCTU. SIMILARLY, RAFTOPOULOS BELIEVES THAT THE MDC WOULD NOT BE ABLE TO RUN AN EFFECTIVE NATIONWIDE PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN IN 2002 WITHOUT THE ZCTU. IT IS FOR THIS REASON, HE ADDED, THAT ZANU-PF IS MAKING A CONCERTED EFFORT TO BREAK THE TIES BETWEEN THE MDC AND THE ZCTU. ¶4. (C) COMMENT: GIVEN THE HISTORY OF ZANU-PF, WE HAVE LITTLE DOUBT THAT THE RULING PARTY IS ATTEMPTING TO MANIPULATE AND/OR BUY THE ELECTION OF A SYMPATHETIC ZCTU LEADERSHIP. SEPARATING THE MDC FROM ITS TRADE UNION BASE IS A CENTRAL ELEMENT OF ZANU-PF'S "URBAN STRATEGY" FOR THE 2002 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS. THE MDC IS TAKING THIS CHALLENGE VERY SERIOUSLY, AND IS ORGANIZING ITS OWN SUPPORTERS WITHIN THE UNIONS TO COUNTER THE ATTACK. THE OUTCOME OF THIS STRUGGLE WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER THE PRO- MDC UNION LEADERS PRESENT A SINGLE SLATE OF CANDIDATES FOR THE ZCTU LEADERSHIP, AS WELL AS HOW EFFECTIVE THE RULING PARTY IS AT BUYING THE VOTES OF UNION LEADERS. END COMMENT. CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ1076 PAGE 01 HARARE 00661 02 OF 02 071508Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 ACQ-00 CEA-01 CIAE-00 COME-00 CTME-00 DINT-00 DODE-00 DOTE-00 WHA-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 EUR-00 EXIM-01 E-00 FAAE-00 FBIE-00 VC-00 FRB-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 ITC-01 LAB-01 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 NSCE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 SSO-00 STR-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 PRM-01 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /013W -------------- C23F51 071508Z /38 R 071507Z FEB 01 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC 8184 INFO DEPT OF LABOR WASHDC SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY AMEMBASSY NAIROBI C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 000661 SIPDIS ILAB FOR RSHEPHARD LONDON FOR CGURNEY PARIS FOR BWILLIAMS NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER PASS USAID FOR AFR/SD - DWELLER, AFR/SA - CPALMA, NNEWMAN, AA/AFR E.O. 12958: DECL 02/07/11 TAGS: ELAB PGOV PHUM PINR CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 00661 02 OF 02 071508Z SUBJECT: ZANU-PF SEEKS TO NEUTRALIZE LABOR SUPPORT FOR MDC IRVING CONFIDENTIAL >