DANISH DEVELOPMENT COOPERATION MISSION

C O N F I D E N T I A L HARARE 000620 SIPDIS LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS USAID FOR AFR/SA C. PALMA E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/01/10 TAGS: PREL EAGR EAID ZI SUBJECT: DANISH DEVELOPMENT COOPERATION MISSION CONDITIONS FUTURE AGRICULTURE AID ON POSITIVE RESPONSE TO MALLOCH-BROWN LETTER REF: HARARE 488 AND PREVIOUS (NOTAL) CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE D'AFFAIRES EARL M. IRVING FOR REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (C) THE DANISH UNDER SECRETARY FOR BILATERAL COOPERATION, AMBASSADOR CARSTEN STRAU, TOLD CHARGE D'AFFAIRES ON JANUARY 31 THAT DENMARK'S CONTINUED ASSISTANCE IN THE FIELD OF AGRICULTURE DEPENDED ON THE ZIMBABWEAN GOVERNMENT'S RESPONSE TO THE LETTER FROM UNITED NATIONS DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM ADMINISTRATOR MARK MALLOCH-BROWN TO PRESIDENT MUGABE (REFTEL). (COMMENT: THE RESPONSE TO THE MALLOCH-BROWN LETTER IS SEEN AS A KEY INDICATOR OF FUTURE DONOR SUPPORT -- WHETHER FOR LAND OR GENERAL DEVELOPMENT. THE ZIMBABWEAN GOVERNMENT'S RESPONSE, NOT TO MENTION ITS TONE AND TENOR, WILL PROVIDE A SIGNAL OF INTENT ON ITS "FAST- TRACK" LAND REFORM PROGRAM AND WHAT SORT OF ASSISTANCE IT WOULD REQUEST OF DONORS. AN IN-YOUR-FACE RESPONSE WILL LEAD TO A HARDER LINE BY DONORS. IN THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT, EVEN A POSITIVE, CONCILIATORY RESPONSE LIKELY WILL BE MET WITH SKEPTICISM AND A "SHOW-ME" ATTITUDE. NO DONOR EXPECTS A ZIMBABWEAN GOVERNMENT ABOUT-FACE. END COMMENT). ¶2. (C) THE DANISH DIPLOMAT SAID HE PUT THAT MESSAGE ACROSS TO MINISTER OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS STANISLAUS MUDENGE CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 00620 011428Z EARLIER THAT DAY. THE DANISH PARLIAMENT RECENTLY VOTED NO NEW AID FOR ZIMBABWE, AND THE PARTY THAT AMBASSADOR STRAU IS LEADING SEEKS TO LOOK FOR WAYS TO LEVERAGE AID THAT IS STILL IN THE PIPELINE, DESPITE REDUCED LEVELS. DENMARK NO LONGER FUNDS ZIMBABWE'S MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE; IT USES MONIES REMAINING FROM THAT PROGRAM TO SUPPORT "COMPLEMENTARY APPROACHES" TO THE ZIMBABWEAN GOVERNMENT'S LAND REFORM PROGRAM. ALL OTHER DANISH AID NOW GOES TO NON-GOVERNMENTAL ORGANIZATIONS, BUT FUNDS FOR HIV/AIDS AND OTHER HEALTH PROJECT ASSISTANCE REMAIN AT NORMAL LEVELS. ¶3. (C) STRAU TOLD US THAT MUDENGE DID NOT RECITE THE HISTORY OF THE LAND QUESTION IN ZIMBABWE OR TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE OPPORTUNITY TO REVILE THE BRITISH, SOMEWHAT TO HIS SURPRISE. RATHER, THE ZIMBABWEAN FOREIGN MINISTER REASONABLY PROBED THE EXTENT OF THE DANISH AID CUTBACK AND CONDITIONS FOR ITS RETURN TO PREVIOUS LEVELS. THE DANISH DIPLOMAT STRESSED TO THE FOREIGN MINISTER THAT THAT WOULD BE CONTINGENT ON WHETHER VIOLENCE WAS EMPLOYED IN THE UPCOMING PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION CAMPAIGN AND THE SORTS OF TACTICS EMPLOYED IN THE FAST-TRACK LAND REDISTRIBUTION EXERCISE. THERE WAS PROVISION TO SCALE BACK AID LEVELS EVEN FURTHER. HE URGED THE MINISTER TO ENTER INTO A ROBUST DIALOGUE WITH ALL STAKEHOLDERS ON LAND REFORM, PARTICULARLY THE COMMERCIAL FARMERS UNION, IN ORDER TO SECURE A SETTLEMENT THAT IS ACCEPTABLE TO ALL. DENMARK, HE NOTED, HAD PLACED ZIMBABWE IN A CATEGORY OF COUNTRIES NO LONGER ELIGIBLE FOR ITS STANDARD FIVE-YEAR AID PROGRAM. STRAU'S GOVERNMENT WILL MONITOR PROGRESS IN CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 00620 011428Z ZIMBABWE OVER THE NEXT TWO YEARS BEFORE CONSIDERING RESUMING NORMAL ASSISTANCE LEVELS. ¶4. (C) COMMENT: THE DANES HAVE A LARGE BILATERAL ASSISTANCE PROGRAM IN ZIMBABWE AND, AS A RESULT, ARE DISPROPORTIONATELY INFLUENTIAL WITH ITS GOVERNMENT. WE HAVE HEARD THAT MUDENGE PRIVATELY EXPRESSED BITTERNESS AT THE DANES' CHANGE IN ATTITUDE TOWARD HIS GOVERNMENT, GIVEN THEIR TRACK RECORD OF GENEROSITY AND POLITICAL SUPPORT FOR THE RULING ZANU-PF WHEN IT WAS A LIBERATION MOVEMENT. THE DANES HAVE SAID ALL THE RIGHT THINGS AND THEIR VIEWS ON THE ZIMBABWEAN GOVERNMENT'S CONDUCT OF THE LAND REFORM AND RESETTLEMENT EXERCISE HEW CLOSELY TO OUR OWN. WHETHER STRAU'S MESSAGE WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON PRESIDENT MUGABE'S FINAL RESPONSE TO THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY'S CONDITIONS FOR HELPING ON LAND REFORM REMAINS TO BE SEEN. NEVERTHELESS, THE GOVERNMENT HERE COULD NOT FAIL TO UNDERSTAND THE DANES' CLARITY AND BLUNTNESS. ALL INDICATORS ARE THAT OTHER EUROPEAN COUNTRIES WILL FOLLOW SUIT -- LED BY SWEDEN, THE CURRENT HEAD OF THE 15-NATION EUROPEAN UNION. END COMMENT. IRVING CONFIDENTIAL >