SUPREME COURT OVERTURNS MUGABE ELECTORAL DECREE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 000613 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR LONDON FOR GURNEY PARIS FOR WILLIAMS NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER E.O. 12958: DECL. 01/31/11 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINS ZI SUBJECT: SUPREME COURT OVERTURNS MUGABE ELECTORAL DECREE ...BUT EXPECTS THE UNEXPECTED FROM ZANU-PF CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 00613 02 OF 02 121328Z -------------- ¶6. (C) MDC MP BITI TOLD POLOFF THAT HE EXPECTS THE GOZ/ZANU-PF TO PULL OUT ALL THE STOPS IN DELAYING HIGH COURT ACTION ON THE LEGAL CHALLENGES. HE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED, FOR INSTANCE, IF PRESIDENT MUGABE ENCOURAGED PARLIAMENT TO PASS A LAW PROHIBITING ANY CHALLENGES TO LAST JUNE'S RESULTS. SUCH A LAW WOULD CLEARLY BE UNCONSTITUTIONAL, BITI SAID, BUT IT WOULD ENSURE THAT THE CASES IN THE HIGH COURT WOULD AGAIN COME TO A HALT UNTIL THE SUPREME COURT STRUCK DOWN THE NEW LAW. IN A SEPARATE CONVERSATION, MDC SENIOR ADVISOR GANDI MUDZINGWA TOLD US THAT THE GOZ'S GOAL IS TO FIND A WAY TO KEEP DELAYING HIGH COURT ACTION UNTIL THE MDC GIVES UP THIS FIGHT IN ORDER TO CONCENTRATE ITS SEVERELY LIMITED RESOURCES ON THE 2002 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION. COMMENT -------------- ¶7. (C) WE WOULD HAVE BEEN SURPRISED HAD THE SUPREME COURT RULED ANY OTHER WAY, AS MUGABE'S DECREE WAS A CLEAR VIOLATION OF THE CONSTITUTION. WE WERE TAKEN ABACK, HOWEVER, BY THE SUBDUED REACTION FROM THE MDC REPRESENTATIVES WITH WHOM WE SPOKE. THEIR EXPECTATION, THOUGH, THAT THE GOVERNMENT WILL DO ALL IT CAN TO DELAY ACTION IN THE HIGH COURT IS WELL-PLACED. THE MDC WOULD ONLY HAVE TO WIN 20 BY-ELECTIONS IN ORDER TO ACQUIRE A MAJORITY IN PARLIAMENT, AND THE GOZ WANTS TO AVOID THIS POSSIBILITY AT ALL COSTS. END COMMENT. CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 00613 02 OF 02 121328Z IRVING CONFIDENTIAL >