AFTER MEETING MUGABE AND MUDENGE, AJELLO FINDS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000603 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR LONDON FOR GURNEY PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS E.O. 12958: DECL: 1.6X5 CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 00603 01 OF 02 311347Z TAGS: PREL MOPS ZI CG SUBJECT: AFTER MEETING MUGABE AND MUDENGE, AJELLO FINDS ZIMBABWEANS UNCLEAR ABOUT THE CONGO CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE D'AFFAIRES EARL M. IRVING FOR REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: EUROPEAN UNION SPECIAL ENVOY ALDO AJELLO MET WITH BOTH PRESIDENT MUGABE AND FOREIGN MINISTER MUDENGE DURING HIS THREE DAY STAY IN HARARE AND CONCLUDED THAT THE ZIMBABWEANS ARE NOT SURE WHAT THEY WANT IN TERMS OF A CONGOLESE LEADERSHIP. THE ZIMBABWEANS POINT TO A NUMBER OF UPCOMING MEETINGS AS EVIDENCE OF THEIR COMMITMENT TO BRING THE PEACE PROCESS TO AN EARLY CONCLUSION. MUDENGE ONCE AGAIN STRESSED THE NEED TO BRING HOME ZIMBABWE'S TROOPS BEFORE THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN 2002. CALLS FOR JOSEPH KABILA TO BE GIVEN MORE TIME, COUPLED WITH THE ABSENCE OF AN UNDERPINNING STRATEGY ON THE WAY FORWARD AND AN UNWILLINGNESS OR INABILITY TO DEAL WITH THE NEW SITUATION IN KINSHASA SUGGEST TO US THE ZIMBABWEANS' PRESENCE IN THE CONGO WAS TIED EXCLUSIVELY TO THE PERSON OF LAURENT KABILA. AJELLO THINKS THE ZIMBABWEANS HAVE ABDICATED THE ROLE OF KEY OUTSIDE PLAYER IN THE CONGO TO THE ANGOLANS. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) THE SWEDISH POLITICAL COUNSELOR IN HARARE, IRINA SCHOULGIN, PROVIDED POLOFF A BRIEF READOUT OF EUROPEAN UNION (EU) SPECIAL ENVOY ALDO AJELLO'S JANUARY 31 MEETING WITH PRESIDENT MUGABE. HER AMBASSADOR, LENNARTH HJELMAKER, REPRESENTED THE EU PRESIDENCY IN ACCOMPANYING CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 00603 01 OF 02 311347Z AJELLO TO THE MEETING. AJELLO DESCRIBED THE TWO-HOUR TETE-A-TETE AS POSITIVE, AND REMARKED THAT THE DIALOGUE WITH MUGABE GETS BETTER EACH TIME HE MEETS HIM. AJELLO CAME AWAY FROM THE MEETING WITH THE IMPRESSION THAT ZIMBABWE WOULD RESPECT THE LUSAKA ACCORDS IN THE DRC. MUGABE TOLD HIM THAT ZIMBABWE WANTS TO GIVE JOSEPH KABILA ENOUGH TIME TO ESTABLISH HIS GOVERNMENT AND ITS LEGITIMACY, ACCORDING TO SCHOULGIN. AJELLO PRESENTED THE MAIN POINTS REACHED IN THE EU COUNCIL'S DECLARATION ON THE DRC, WHICH CONDEMNED THE ASSASSINATION OF LAURENT KABILA AND URGED ALL THE PARTIES IN THE DRC TO ABIDE BY THE LUSAKA AGREEMENT. AJELLO IS TRAVELING TO SOUTH AFRICA JANUARY 31 TO EXPAND THE EU'S DIALOGUE WITH OTHER PLAYERS IN THE REGION, THE SWEDISH POLITICAL COUNSELOR 
STATED. ¶3. (C) BRITISH DEPUTY HIGH COMMISSIONER IAN HAY-CAMPBELL (PROTECT) GAVE CHARGE ON JANUARY 31 A READOUT OF AJELLO'S BRIEFING TO EU HEADS OF MISSION OF HIS MEETING WITH ZIMBABWEAN FOREIGN MINISTER STANISLAUS MUDENGE THE DAY BEFORE. AJELLO KICKED OFF HIS PRESENTATION SAYING THAT AT THE END OF THE MEETING HE WAS NO WISER ON WHAT ZIMBABWE WANTS WITH RESPECT TO THE CONGO AND THAT THE FOREIGN MINISTER'S ACCOUNT WAS "MUDDLED AND FULL OF CONTRADICTIONS." INDEED THE EU SPECIAL ENVOY OBSERVED, ZIMBABWE'S CURRENT POLICY WAS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THE ONE IT HAD PRIOR TO THE ASSASSINATION. ¶4. (C) MUDENGE SAID THAT INTERNAL DIALOGUE IN THE CONGO WAS ESSENTIAL, BUT THE PROBLEM WAS THAT THE ARMED OPPOSITION WANTED POWER SHARING WITH THE UNARMED CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 00603 01 OF 02 311347Z OPPOSITION, AN ARRANGEMENT THE FOREIGN MINISTER RECKONED WOULD PRODUCE "TEN YEARS OF DICTATORSHIP." THE ZIMBABWEAN POLITICO EXPRESSED THE HOPE THAT RWANDA WOULD GET OUT OF PWETO SOON OR "WE WILL HELP THEM OUT." AJELLO WARNED MUDENGE THAT IF ZIMBABWE WENT ON THE OFFENSIVE THEN RWANDA WOULD RESPOND BY MOVING ON LUBUMBASHI. THE ZIMBABWEAN FOREIGN MINISTER THEN WENT ON TO LIST A NUMBER OF INITIATIVES IN PLAY, WHICH PRESIDENT MUGABE REITERATED TO AJELLO THE NEXT DAY. HE CONFIRMED THAT THE THREE ALLIES AND KABILA WOULD MEET IN KINSHASA AT AN UNSPECIFIED DATE, BUT NOT BEFORE ANGOLAN PRESIDENT DOS SANTOS RETURNED FROM THE FAR EAST. ZAMBIAN PRESIDENT CHILUBA WOULD CHAIR A REGIONAL MEETING AT SOME UNSPECIFIED DATE IN THE NEAR FUTURE AND SOUTH AFRICAN PRESIDENT MBEKI WOULD CONVENE A MAPUTO III SUMMIT, ALTHOUGH THE ZIMBABWEAN FOREIGN MINISTER GAVE NO DETAILS ABOUT IT. MUDENGE SAID THE POLITICAL COMMITTEE WOULD MEET IN HARARE PRIOR TO THE FEBRUARY 21 UNSC MEETING IN NEW YORK. AJELLO COMMENTED THAT THE SURFEIT OF MEETINGS AND INITIATIVES LACKED AN UNDERPINNING STRATEGY AND RECOMMENDED THAT THE UNITED NATIONS TAKE THE INITIATIVE TO DIRECT THE PEACE PROCESS. ¶5. (C) RESPONDING TO A QUESTION POSED BY AN EU HEAD OF CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ5225 PAGE 01 HARARE 00603 02 OF 02 311347Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 SMEC-00 DODE-00 DOTE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 EUR-00 FAAE-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 LAB-01 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 OMB-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 SSO-00 SS-00 TRSE-00 T-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 PRM-01 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 SWCI-00 /007W -------------- BE5890 311347Z /38 O 311345Z JAN 01 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 8148 INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY IMMEDIATE AMEMBASSY KAMPALA IMMEDIATE AMEMBASSY KIGALI IMMEDIATE AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS IMMEDIATE USEU BRUSSELS IMMEDIATE C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 000603 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR LONDON FOR GURNEY PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS E.O. 12958: DECL: 1.6X5 TAGS: PREL MOPS ZI CG CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 00603 02 OF 02 311347Z SUBJECT: AFTER MEETING MUGABE AND MUDENGE, AJELLO FINDS ZIMBABWEANS UNCLEAR ABOUT THE CONGO MISSION, AJELLO SAID IT WAS HIS IMPRESSION THAT THE ANGOLANS AND NOT THE ZIMBABWEANS WERE NOW THE KEY PLAYERS IN THE CONGO. THEY APPEARED TO BE IN CHARGE IN KINSHASA WITH 5,000 ELITE TROOPS THERE PLUS TANKS AND HELICOPTERS. THE EU SPECIAL ENVOY REPORTED THAT FOREIGN MINISTER MIRANDA TOLD HIM THAT THE PROBLEM WITH THE LEADERSHIP OF THE DRC WAS THAT IT DID NOT LISTEN TO WHAT OTHERS HAD TO SAY. THE ANGOLAN FOREIGN MINISTER BELIEVED THAT ANGOLA HAD THE GREATEST FREEDOM TO MANEUVER IN THE CONGO AS IT HAD NO ECONOMIC INTERESTS THERE, WHILE ZIMBABWE'S WERE "DEEP AND SERIOUS." THE ANGOLAN FOREIGN MINISTER RELATED THAT HIS GOVERNMENT WAS UNCLEAR AS TO ZIMBABWE'S REACTION TO THE RECENT EVENTS IN THE CONGO, POSSIBLY BECAUSE THE ZIMBABWEANS THEMSELVES WERE UNCLEAR ON IT. THE ANGOLANS HAD IN THE PAST BEEN FED UP WITH ZIMBABWE, AS EVERY TIME THEY TRIED TO PRESSURE KABILA TO ADHERE TO THE LUSAKA PROCESS, ASSUMING ZIMBABWEAN SUPPORT, THE ZIMBABWEANS WOULD TAKE AN EXTREME POSITION SIDING WITH KABILA. THE ANGOLAN FOREIGN MINISTER THOUGHT THE LATE CONGOLESE PRESIDENT HAD BOUGHT OFF THE ZIMBABWEANS AT THE LAST MOMENT. ¶6. (C) AJELLO CONCLUDED BY SAYING THAT ONE CANNOT IGNORE THE ECONOMIC INTEREST OF THE PARTIES AND HE THOUGHT THEY WERE MAKING ATTEMPTS TO GUARANTEE THOSE INTERESTS AFTER THE WAR. MUDENGE CONCLUDED THE MEETING BY MAKING IT CLEAR TO AJELLO THAT ZIMBABWE'S TROOPS HAD TO BE OUT OF THE CONGO BEFORE THE 2002 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION. CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 00603 02 OF 02 311347Z ¶7. (C) COMMENT: PRESIDENT MUGABE'S REPORTED COMMENT TO AJELLO THAT ZIMBABWE WANTS TO GIVE JOSEPH KABILA TIME TO ESTABLISH HIS LEGITIMACY HAS BECOME A COMMON REFRAIN FROM ZIMBABWEAN OFFICIALS SINCE THE ASSASSINATION. WE BELIEVE IT SUGGESTS A GENUINE UNCERTAINTY AND CONCERN ABOUT WHETHER THE NEW CONGOLESE PRESIDENT WILL SUFFICIENTLY PROTECT ZIMBABWE'S ECONOMIC INTERESTS IN THE DRC, AND IMPLIES THAT ZIMBABWE'S INVOLVEMENT IN THE DRC WAS TIED DIRECTLY TO THE PERSON OF LAURENT KABILA. AT THE SAME TIME, THERE IS A GROWING PERCEPTION WITHIN THE DIPLOMATIC COMMUNITY HERE THAT THE GOZ HAS NOT MOVED AGGRESSIVELY TO TRY TO ENSURE A SYMPATHETIC SUCCESSOR TO THE ASSASSINATED PRESIDENT BECAUSE IT IS NOT SUFFICIENTLY FAMILIAR WITH THE INTERNAL DYNAMICS WITHIN THE GDRC. END COMMENT. IRVING CONFIDENTIAL >