READOUT ON MEETING BETWEEN ZIMBABWE PRESIDENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000522 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 1.6 X5 TAGS: PREL PGOV ZI CG SUBJECT: READOUT ON MEETING BETWEEN ZIMBABWE PRESIDENT AND BELGIAN FOREIGN MINISTER CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE D'AFFAIRES EARL M. IRVING FOR REASONS: 1.5 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: THE DCM OF THE BELGIAN EMBASSY IN HARARE PROVIDED A READOUT TO A SMALL GROUP OF DIPLOMATS OF PRESIDENT MUGABE'S MEETING WITH BELGIAN FOREIGN MINISTER LOUIS MICHEL, WHICH TOOK PLACE THE EVENING OF CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 00522 01 OF 02 251556Z JANUARY 24. MUGABE AND MICHEL DISCUSSED ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY THE SITUATION IN THE DRC, AND AGREED IT IS IMPORTANT TO GIVE PRESIDENT-DESIGNATE JOSEPH KABILA TIME TO ESTABLISH HIMSELF AND FORMULATE HIS OWN POLICIES. MUGABE TOLD MICHEL THAT ZIMBABWE HAD BOLSTERED ITS FORCES IN THE DRC BY SEVERAL THOUSAND TROOPS AFTER WITHDRAWING SEVERAL THOUSAND LATE LAST YEAR. ZIMBABWE SENT TROOPS TO KINSHASA FOLLOWING KABILA'S ASSASSINATION TO PRESERVE STABILITY AND PROTECT FOREIGNERS AND DIPLOMATS, THE PRESIDENT STATED. MUGABE WAS ALSO CRITICAL OF UGANDA AND RWANDA. THE HEAD OF STATE AND FOREIGN MINISTER DISCUSSED THE INTERNAL POLITICAL DYNAMICS IN THE DRC GOVERNMENT AND THE POSSIBLE ROLE OF VARIOUS FACILITATORS, INCLUDING THE BELGIANS AND FORMER SENEGALESE PRESIDENT DIOUF, IN REJUVENATING THE LUSAKA PEACE PROCESS. MICHEL CAME AWAY FROM THE MEETING WITH THE IMPRESSION THAT ZIMBABWE DOES NOT KNOW THE CONGOLESE SITUATION VERY WELL AND HAS HANDLED ITS INVOLVEMENT THERE IN A "CLUMSY" WAY. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) ON JANUARY 25, BELGIAN DCM ALEXIS DE CROMBRUGGHE PROVIDED A READOUT OF PRESIDENT MUGABE'S MEETING WITH BELGIAN FOREIGN MINISTER LOUIS MICHEL THE NIGHT BEFORE TO CHARGE AND POLOFF, AND THE AUSTRALIAN AND CANADIAN HIGH COMMISSIONERS. FOLLOWING HIS ATTENDANCE AT LAURENT KABILA'S FUNERAL, MICHEL EMBARKED ON A WHIRLWIND TOUR OF AFRICAN CAPITALS, FIRST STOPPING IN LUANDA, THEN HARARE, ON JANUARY 24. (NOTE: MICHEL IS PROCEEDING TO KIGALI AND KAMPALA JANUARY 25, THEN LIBREVILLE, AND MAY STOP AGAIN IN KINSHASA BEFORE RETURNING TO BRUSSELS. END NOTE.) IN THE EVENING OF CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 00522 01 OF 02 251556Z JANUARY 24, MICHEL WAS MET BY ZIMBABWE FOREIGN MINISTER STAN MUDENGE AT HARARE'S AIRPORT, WHERE THEY TALKED FOR NEARLY AN HOUR, BEFORE PROCEEDING TO A HASTILY ARRANGED, EARLY EVENING MEETING WITH THE ZIMBABWE PRESIDENT. THE TWO, ACCOMPANIED BY THE BELGIAN DCM, MET AT MUGABE'S RESIDENCE. DE CROMBRUGGHE REPORTED THAT THE PRESIDENT WAS CHARMING, AND APPEARED ENERGETIC AND IN GOOD HEALTH, DESPITE RECENT REPORTS TO THE CONTRARY. ¶3. (C) THE DISCUSSION BETWEEN FOREIGN MINISTER MICHEL AND MUGABE AND MUDENGE FOCUSED ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY ON THE DRC SITUATION. MUGABE AND MICHEL AGREED THAT IT IS IMPORTANT TO GIVE JOSEPH KABILA TIME TO ESTABLISH HIMSELF AND FORMULATE HIS OWN POLICIES. THE TWO AGREED THAT THE JUNIOR KABILA COULD NONETHELESS ENHANCE HIS LEGITIMACY BY OPENING A DIALOGUE WITH THE REBELS AND THE POLITICAL OPPOSITION. MUGABE STATED THAT HE SHOULD AT LEAST SEND A SIGNAL TO THE REBELS TO INDICATE HE IS INTERESTED IN NEGOTIATING. MUGABE NOTED THAT THE ELDER KABILA HAD BEGUN A DIALOGUE WITH THE REBELS IN LIBREVILLE. THE ZIMBABWEAN PRESIDENT DID NOT EXPECT THE DRC GOVERNMENT TO IMMEDIATELY OPEN UP TO THE OPPOSITION, BUT SAID HE WOULD NOT GET "PUSHY" WITH KABILA. MUGABE WAS NON-COMMITTAL ABOUT JOSEPH KABILA, AND IMPLIED A FEW TIMES THAT HE IS A TRANSITIONAL FIGURE, ACCORDING TO DE CROMBRUGGHE. ¶4. (C) MUGABE TOLD MICHEL THAT ZIMBABWE NOW HAS ABOUT 13,000 TROOPS IN THE DRC. THE GOZ HAD WITHDRAWN BETWEEN 3,000 AND 5,000 TROOPS LATE LAST YEAR, BUT WAS FORCED TO REAUGMENT ITS FORCE WHEN PWETO FELL TO THE REBELS AND CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 00522 01 OF 02 251556Z WHEN KABILA WAS ASSASSINATED, MUGABE SAID. THE PRESIDENT FURTHER EXPLAINED THAT WHEN THE REBELS TOOK PWETO, THEY TRAPPED SEVERAL HUNDRED ZIMBABWEAN TROOPS BETWEEN LAKES MWERU AND TANGANYIKA. THE TROOPS WERE INSTRUCTED NOT TO FIGHT BUT TO RETREAT ACROSS THE BORDER INTO ZAMBIA. MUGABE HINTED AT SOME UNHAPPINESS WITH THE ELDER KABILA WHEN HE UNILATERALLY DECIDED TO ATTACK PEPA, AND THE RWANDAN COUNTERATTACK RESULTED IN THE FALL OF PWETO. ¶5. (C) MUGABE STRESSED TO THE FOREIGN MINISTER THAT ZIMBABWE SENT MORE TROOPS TO KINSHASA IN THE WAKE OF KABILA'S ASSASSINATION TO "MAINTAIN LAW AND ORDER" AND TO PROTECT RESIDENT FOREIGNERS AND DIPLOMATS. MUGABE BLITHELY SUGGESTED THAT THE WEST CONTRIBUTE FINANCIALLY TO ZIMBABWE'S INTERVENTION, SINCE IT WAS COSTING ZIMBABWE SO MUCH TO PROVIDE THIS VALUABLE SERVICE. THE GOZ WAS FORCED TO INTERVENE "BECAUSE THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY DID NOT DO THE JOB," MUGABE REMARKED. BESIDES, ZIMBABWE CANNOT LEAVE A POLITICAL VACUUM IN KINSHASA, NOR CAN IT RISK THE POLITICAL OPPOSITION CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ7207 PAGE 01 HARARE 00522 02 OF 02 251556Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 DODE-00 DS-00 EUR-00 VC-00 TEDE-00 INR-00 VCE-00 NSAE-00 SSO-00 SS-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /002W -------------- BB8127 251556Z /38 O 251553Z JAN 01 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 8086 INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY RWANDA COLLECTIVE AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS AMEMBASSY LIBREVILLE C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 000522 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 1.6 X5 TAGS: PREL PGOV ZI CG SUBJECT: READOUT ON MEETING BETWEEN ZIMBABWE PRESIDENT AND BELGIAN FOREIGN MINISTER STARTING SOME KIND OF ANTI-GOVERNMENT MASS ACTION, HE TOLD MICHEL. MUDENGE EARLIER REPORTEDLY ADMITTED IT IS A "NIGHTMARE" TO MAINTAIN SO MANY TROOPS IN THE DRC WHEN ZIMBABWE'S OWN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IS FAST APPROACHING. ¶6. (C) MUGABE AND MUDENGE WERE FAIRLY CRITICAL OF CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 00522 02 OF 02 251556Z RWANDA, UGANDA AND THEIR REBEL SURROGATES. MUDENGE NOTED THAT EVEN THOUGH RWANDA HAD PROMISED TO WITHDRAW ITS FORCES 200KM, IT INSTEAD ADVANCED 200KM TO TAKE PWETO. ZIMBABWE IS ALSO WORRIED THAT BEMBA'S FORCES CONTINUE TO ADVANCE IN NORTHERN DRC. MUDENGE REMARKED THAT BEMBA'S WAR IS REALLY UGANDAN PRESIDENT MUSEVENI'S WAR, AND THAT MUSEVENI IS THE KEY TO RESOLVING THAT PART OF THE CONFLICT. MUDENGE WENT AS FAR AS TO SAY THAT THE U.S. HAS GIVEN MUSEVENI CARTE BLANCHE IN NORTHERN CONGO IN ORDER TO KEEP SUDAN OUT. MUGABE STATED THAT UGANDA AND RWANDA SHOULD BE ABLE TO DEAL WITH THEIR CONGOLESE BORDER PROBLEMS VIA BILATERAL DISCUSSIONS WITH THE DRC. AS FOR THE RCD-GOMA REBEL GROUP, MUDENGE OPINED THAT THEY WOULD NEVER ACCEPT A DEMOCRATIC CONGO BECAUSE THEY ARE SO UNPOPULAR AND WOULD LOSE IN ANY ELECTION. FOREIGN MINISTER MICHEL SAID HE WOULD TRY TO PERSUADE RCD-GOMA TO PARTICIPATE IN THE CONGOLESE DIALOGUE. ¶7. (C) ON THE LUSAKA PEACE PROCESS, MUDENGE SAID ZIMBABWE HAS ENCOURAGED JOSEPH KABILA TO KEEP FORMER BOTSWANA PRESIDENT MASIRE AS PEACE FACILITATOR, BUT ACKNOWLEDGED TO MICHEL THAT CREATIVITY WAS NEEDED IN FINDING A WAY TO SUPPLEMENT HIS EFFORTS. MUGABE INTERJECTED, SAYING THAT THE PEACE PROCESS SHOULD NOT DEPEND ON MASIRE ENTIRELY, ESPECIALLY SINCE HE DOES NOT SPEAK FRENCH. GABON PRESIDENT BONGO ADDS A NEW DIMENSION TO THE PEACE PROCESS, BUT FORMER SENEGALESE PRESIDENT ABDOU DIOUF MAY ULTIMATELY BE A BETTER FACILITATOR, MUDENGE OFFERED. FOREIGN MINISTER MICHEL STATED THAT BELGIUM SUPPORTS MASIRE, AND SUGGESTED BRUSSELS COULD ALSO PLAY A ROLE IN GETTING THE PEACE CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 00522 02 OF 02 251556Z PROCESS GOING AGAIN. HE INVITED MUDENGE TO BRUSSELS TO FURTHER THE DIALOGUE. MUDENGE REPORTED THAT HE IS GOING TO NEW YORK FOR THE FEBRUARY 21 UN SECURITY COUNCIL MEETING OF FOREIGN MINISTERS INVOLVED IN THE DRC WAR. ¶8. (C) THE BELGIAN DELEGATION COMMENTED AMONG THEMSELVES, AND LATER TO US, THAT THEY DO NOT BELIEVE THE ZIMBABWE LEADERSHIP HAS A VERY GOOD GRASP OF THE POLITICAL DYNAMICS INSIDE THE DRC. THEY NOTED THAT THE GOZ IS MORE CLOSELY LINKED TO THE OLD GUARD FIGURES OF INTERNAL AFFAIRS MINISTER KAKUDJI AND JUSTICE MINISTER KONGOLO. THE BELGIAN AMBASSADOR IN KINSHASA REPORTS THAT THE CONGOLESE AMBASSADOR TO ZIMBABWE, KIKAYA BIN KARUBI, IS PART OF THE SO-CALLED "NEW GUARD" OF UP-AND- COMERS. THE GOZ'S DISCUSSIONS WITH THE POLITICAL OPPOSITION FIGURE AND INTELLECTUAL ARTHUR ZAHIDI NGOMA AS A POTENTIAL PRESIDENTIAL SUCCESSOR DISPLAYS THEIR NAIVETE, THE BELGIANS REMARKED. MICHEL COMMENTED TO HIS STAFF LATER THAT HE THINKS ZIMBABWE'S HANDLING OF THE CONGO INTERVENTION HAS BEEN "CLUMSY" FROM THE START. IRVING CONFIDENTIAL >