CMAG DECISION A SHOCK FOR ZIMBABWE

C O N F I D E N T I A L HARARE 003814 SIPDIS BRUSSELS ALSO FOR USEU LONDON FOR GURNEY PARIS FOR NEARY NSC FOR AF SR DIR FRAZIER AF/FO AND AF/S E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/21/2011 TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM PINR ZI SUBJECT: CMAG DECISION A SHOCK FOR ZIMBABWE REF: FBIS AFP20011221000024 CLASSIFIED BY JOSEPH G. SULLIVAN FOR REASONS 1.5B/D ¶1. (C) THE DEC 20 DECISION BY THE COMMONWEALTH MINISTERIAL ACTION GROUP(CMAG) "TO EXPRESS ITS DEEP CONCERN ABOUT THE SITUATION IN ZIMBABWE ESPECIALLY THE CONTINUED VIOLENCE, OCCUPATION OF PROPERTY, ACTIONS AGAINST THE FREEDOM AND INDEPENDENCE OF THE MEDIA AND POLITICAL INTIMIDATION" . (WHICH) "CONSTITUTES A SERIOUS AND PERSISTENT VIOLATION OF THE COMMONWEALTH'S FUNDAMENTAL POLTICAL VALUES AND THE RULE OF LAW AS ENSHRINED IN THE HARARE COMMONWEALTH DECLARATION" COMES AS A SHOCK TO THE GOZ. THE CMAG'S DRAWING ATTENTION OF THE GOZ TO ITS ABUJA AGREEMENT COMMITMENTS AND STRONG URGING TO IMPLEMENT THESE COMMITMENTS COMES AS A PARTICULAR BLOW, SINCE IT CONTRADICTS THE GOZ CLAIM THAT IT HAS IMPLEMENTED ABUJA AND ONLY THE UK HAS FAILED TO FULFILL ITS FUNDING COMMITMENTS. THE PRESENCE OF NIGERIAN FOREIGN MINISTER LAMIDO ON THE CMAG AND HIS SUBSEQUENT INTERVIEWS ON BBC, IN PARTICULAR UNDERMINE THE GOZ PRETENSE TO BE ABIDING BY ABUJA. THE PRESENCE OF NIGERIA AND BOTSWANA IN THE CMAG, NOT TO MENTION MALAYSIA, ALSO UNDERMINES THE GOZ ARGUMENT THAT ANY CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 03814 220544Z CRITICISM OF ZIMBABWE IS A UK, EUROPEAN OR NORTH AMERICAN PLOT. ¶2. (C) THE CMAG STATEMENT LEFT THE STATE MEDIA SPEECHLESS; THE BEST RESPONSE FOREIGN MINISTER MUDENGE COULD MUSTER WAS A CLAIM THAT CMAG ACTIONWITHOUT A CHOGOM DIRECTIVE WAS ILLEGAL (A POINT ON WHICH OUR UK AND CANADIAN COLLEAGUES CONCED HE HAS HALF A POINT.) OTHERWISE, HE FELL BACK ON UNSUSTAINABLE CLAIMS OF A BRITISH CONSPIRACY. ¶3. (C) COMMENT: COMING SO SHORTLY AFTER THE SADC MINISTERIAL MISSION HAD AGREED WITH THE GOZ VIEW THAT THERE HAD BEEN SUBSTANTIAL PROGRESS ON THE LAND ISSUE AND THAT VIOLENCE HAD DIMINISHED, THE CMAG REPORT IS A MAJOR SHOCK FOR THE GOZ. PRESIDENT MUGABE, CURRENTLY VISITING LIBYA FOR ANOTHER INJECTION OF PETROL, WOULD SEEM LIKELY TO REACT AS HE HAS TO ALL OTHER CRITICISMS, WITH A " THEY CAN GO TO HELL." BUT NIGERIA'S JOINING IN THE CRITICISM OF ZIMBABWE'S ABUJA AGREEMENT PERFORMANCE STRIPS BARE A MAJOR DEFENCE PLANK OF THE GOZ. COUPLED WITH RISING FOOD SHORTAGES AND OTHER PROBLEMS, MORE VOICES IN THE GOZ AND ZUNU-PF ARE LIKELY TO QUESTION WHETHER MUGABE AND ZANU-PF CAN TOUGH IT OUT IN ISOLATION FROM THE NON-QADDAFI WORLD. SULLIVAN CONFIDENTIAL >