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01HARARE3730 2001-12-14 09:48:00 CONFIDENTIAL Embassy Harare
Cable title:  

A/S KANSTEINER DELIVERS MESSAGE OF SUPPORT TO

Tags:   PGOV PREL PINR ZI 
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140948Z Dec 01


                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ3689

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                  ------------------4B74EC  141045Z /38    
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0545
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 
AMEMBASSY OSLO 
AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 
AMEMBASSY STOCKHOLM 
AMEMBASSY KINGSTON 
AMEMBASSY ABUJA
					  C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 HARARE 003730 

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER
LONDON FOR GURNEY
PARIS FOR NEARY
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER

E.O. 12958: DECL. 12/04/11
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR ZI
SUBJECT: A/S KANSTEINER DELIVERS MESSAGE OF SUPPORT TO
OPPOSITION AND CIVIL SOCIETY REPRESENTATIVES

REF: A) HARARE 3401 B) HARARE 3691 C) HARARE 3631

CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF MATT HARRINGTON.
REASONS: 1.5 (B) AND (D).

SUMMARY
-------



1. (C) DURING HIS DECEMBER 10-11 VISIT TO HARARE, AF
ASSISTANT SECRETARY MET WITH A RANGE OF INDIVIDUALS OUTSIDE
GOVERNMENT, INCLUDING MDC LEADER MORGAN TSVANGIRAI, SUPREME
COURT JUSTICE WILSON SANDURA, UNDP RESREP VICTOR ANGELO,
COMMERCIAL FARMERS UNION (CFU) OFFICIALS, AND
REPRESENTATIVES OF HUMAN RIGHTS GROUPS AND OTHER NGOS.
KANSTEINER HEARD A CONSISTENT REFRAIN THAT ZIMBABWE'S
POLITICAL CRISIS AND ECONOMIC MESS WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN
IN THE RUN-UP TO THE ELECTION AND THAT THE GOZ/ZANU-PF ARE
EMPLOYING A RANGE OF TACTICS TO INCREASE THEIR PROSPECTS IN
NEXT YEAR'S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION AND LIMIT INTERNATIONAL
SCRUTINY OF THEIR ACTIONS. ON ZDERA, TSVANGIRAI RECOGNIZED
THE THREAT OF IMPOSING RESTRICTIONS ON THE RULING ELITE
COULD BE MORE EFFECTIVE THAN THE ACTION, BUT HE HOPED THE
USG WOULD IMPLEMENT AT LEAST ONE RESTRICTION TO DEMONSTRATE
THAT IT MEANS BUSINESS. A PROMINENT HUMAN RIGHTS ACTIVIST
ASSERTED THAT, SINCE THE JUDICIARY HAS BEEN COMPROMISED,
ZIMBABWEANS NOW MUST COUNT ON THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 03 HARARE 03730 01 OF 05 141045Z
TO HOLD THE ZANU-PF LEADERSHIP ACCOUNTABLE FOR ITS ACTIONS.
UNDP RESREP REPORTED THAT WFP IS READY TO MOVE FORWARD WITH
HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE, BUT THE GOZ HAS NOT SIGNED THE
LETTER OF UNDERSTANDING BECAUSE IT DISAGREES WITH WFP'S
ANALYSIS OF THE CAUSES OF THE FOOD CRISIS, AND BECAUSE THE
TWO SIDES HAVE NOT AGREED ON THE DELIVERY MECHANISM. (NOTE:
THE LETTER OF UNDERSTANDING WAS SIGNED SUBSEQUENT TO THIS
MEETING.) END SUMMARY.

MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE (MDC)


--------------------------





2. (C) MDC PRESIDENT MORGAN TSVANGIRAI, ACCOMPANIED BY
DEPUTY SECRETARY-GENERAL GIFT CHIMANIKIRE AND ELECTIONS
DIRECTOR PAUL THEMBA-NYATHI, TOLD KANSTEINER THAT HIS PARTY
IS UNABLE TO CAMPAIGN IN CERTAIN AREAS OF THE COUNTRY,
PARTICULARLY MASHONALAND CENTRAL AND PARTS OF MASHONALAND
WEST. ASKED HOW THE MDC GOT ITS MESSAGE TO THE RESIDENTS
OF THOSE AREAS, TSVANGIRAI SAID SUPPORTERS GO IN UNDER THE
COVER OF NIGHT TO DISTRIBUTE PAMPHLETS, NOT, HE POINTED
OUT, AN APPROACH ONE WOULD EXPECT IN A DEMOCRATIC SYSTEM.
HE ADDED THAT THE BREAK BETWEEN THE PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS
IN JUNE 2000 AND NEXT YEAR'S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION HAS
ENABLED THE PARTY TO PENETRATE AREAS FORMERLY CLOSED TO IT,
AND GIVEN THEM TIME TO CONVINCE ZIMBABWEANS THAT THE ONLY
WAY TO STOP THE VIOLENCE IS TO VOTE OUT THE CURRENT
GOVERNMENT. TSVANGIRAI PREDICTED THAT THE MDC WOULD HAVE
LOST IF THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION HAD BEEN HELD IN JUNE


2000. THE PARTY'S VICTORY IN THE CHEGUTU MAYORAL RACE IS A
GOOD EXAMPLE OF THE BENEFITS OF THAT BREAK IN THE ACTION,
AND PROVIDED A HUGE PSYCHOLOGICAL BOOST TO THE PARTY AND
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 04 HARARE 03730 01 OF 05 141045Z
ITS SUPPORTERS.



3. (C) TSVANGIRAI SAID THE CHALLENGE FOR THE MDC IS TO
STAY FOCUSED ON WINNING THE ELECTION AND NOT ALLOW ITSELF
TO BE DISTRACTED BY INTERNATIONAL INITIATIVES SUCH AS THE
SADC EFFORT WHICH, FROM THE GOZ PERSPECTIVE, ARE ONLY MEANT
TO BUY TIME. HE REPORTED THAT ZANU-PF ELDER STATESMAN
EDDISON ZVOBGO'S ESTRANGEMENT FROM MUGABE IS PROVING
HELPFUL TO THE MDC'S PROSPECTS IN PIVOTAL MASVINGO
PROVINCE. ASKED WHETHER ZVOBGO, WHO IS THE KINGMAKER IN
MASVINGO, IS TELLING HIS SUPPORTERS TO VOTE FOR THE MDC,
TSVANGIRAI SAID HE IS TELLING THEM TO GO AND VOTE, BUT NOT

SIPDIS
FOR MUGABE.



4. (C) THE MDC LEADER RAISED ZDERA, SAYING HE THOUGHT ITS
CONGRESSIONAL PASSAGE CAUGHT THE GOZ BY SURPRISE, AND KEY
LEADERS ARE IN A PANIC AT THE POSSIBILITY THEY MIGHT BE
TARGETED. HE RECOGNIZED THAT THE THREAT MAY BE MORE
EFFECTIVE THAN THE IMPOSITION, BUT HE THOUGHT IT MIGHT BE
NECESSARY FOR THE USG TO IMPLEMENT AT LEAST ONE RESTRICTION
IN ADVANCE OF THE ELECTION TO DEMONSTRATE THAT IT MEANS
BUSINESS. KANSTEINER RESPONDED THAT WE DO HAVE FLEXIBILITY
IN SELECTING WHOM WOULD BE TARGETED AND IN OUR CHOICE OF
EITHER TRAVEL RESTRICTIONS OR ASSET SEIZURE, OR BOTH. WHAT

CONFIDENTIAL

CONFIDENTIAL PTQ3690

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ACTION AF-00

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DOTE-00 WHA-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EAP-00 EB-00 EUR-00
FAAE-00 FBIE-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 LAB-01
L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00
PC-01 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 TRSE-00
USIE-00 R-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00
SAS-00 SWCI-00 /008W


--------------------------

4B750D 141045Z /38
P 140948Z DEC 01
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0546
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
AMEMBASSY OSLO
AMEMBASSY CANBERRA
AMEMBASSY STOCKHOLM
AMEMBASSY KINGSTON
AMEMBASSY ABUJA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 05 HARARE 003730

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER
LONDON FOR GURNEY
PARIS FOR NEARY
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER

CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02 HARARE 03730 02 OF 05 141045Z
E.O. 12958: DECL. 12/04/11
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR ZI
SUBJECT: A/S KANSTEINER DELIVERS MESSAGE OF SUPPORT TO
OPPOSITION AND CIVIL SOCIETY REPRESENTATIVES

THE USG WANTS TO AVOID, HOWEVER, IS GIVING MUGABE AN
EFFECTIVE RALLYING CRY. TSVANGIRAI SUGGESTED KANSTEINER
COULD LESSEN THAT RISK BY EMPHASIZING IN HIS PRESS
CONFERENCE LATER THAT DAY THAT ZDERA DOES NOT IMPOSE
SANCTIONS AGAINST THE ZIMBABWEAN PEOPLE, WHICH THE USG
CONTINUES TO HELP WITH SIGNIFICANT LEVELS OF ASSISTANCE.



5. (C) THEMBA-NYATHI URGED THE UNITED STATES TO COORDINATE
CLOSELY WITH ZIMBABWE'S SADC NEIGHBORS. WE ARE DOING THAT
ON SEVERAL LEVELS, KANSTEINER REPLIED. HE SAID HE HAD MET
AT UNGA WITH SADC FOREIGN MINISTERS, AND THAT ALL OF THEM,
WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF ANGOLA AND NAMIBIA, AGREED
WITH THE U.S. APPROACH TOWARD ZIMBABWE. PRESIDENTS BUSH
AND MBEKI HAD ALSO HAD A GOOD DISCUSSION ABOUT ZIMBABWE
AND, ON THE MARGINS, HE HAD PRESSED FM ZUMA ON THE
IMPORTANCE OF SOUTH AFRICA TAKING A MORE ACTIVE ROLE IN
ADDRESSING THE CRISIS CONSUMING ITS NORTHERN NEIGHBOR.



6. (C) TURNING TO THE ELECTORAL PROCESS, THEMBA-NYATHI
RECALLED MINISTER OF JUSTICE CHINAMASA'S STATEMENT IN
PARLIAMENT THAT THE GOZ DID NOT HAVE THE RESOURCES TO
PURCHASE TRANSLUCENT BALLOT BOXES BUT WOULD ACCEPT
DONATIONS FROM THE UNDP FOR THIS PURPOSE, AND HE URGED THAT
WE CALL CHINAMASA'S BLUFF. THE AMBASSADOR AGREED TO MAKE
SUCH AN OFFER TO THE UNDP (WHICH SUBSEQUENTLY OFFERED UNDP
FUNDING TO CHINAMASA). POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF RECALLED
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 03 HARARE 03730 02 OF 05 141045Z
THAT ELECTORAL SUPERVISORY COMMISSION (ESC) CHAIRMAN GULA-
NDEBELE HAD DEMONSTRATED A WILLINGNESS IN A RECENT MEETING
WITH US TO ACCEPT THE INPUT OF POLITICAL PARTIES. IF THE
ESC WAS SERIOUS ABOUT SUCH AN OFFER, TSVANGIRAI REJOINED,
IT WOULD INVITE PARTY REPRESENTATIVES TO SIT ON THE
COMMISSION. TWO ADDITIONAL PROBLEMS, THEMBA-NYATHI
COMMENTED, ARE THE ESC'S ABDICATION OF MUCH OF ITS
AUTHORITY TO THE PARTISAN REGISTRAR-GENERAL, AND THE
ELECTORAL ACT'S VESTING OF TOO MUCH POWER IN THE PRESIDENT,
WHO IS ONE OF THE CONTESTANTS.

THE VIEW FROM CIVIL SOCIETY


--------------------------





7. (C) IN A LUNCH WITH HUMAN RIGHTS AND OTHER CIVIC
ORGANIZATIONS, KANSTEINER NOTED THE CRUCIAL ROLE THEY PLAY
IN A DEMOCRACY, PRAISED THEM FOR THEIR COURAGE UNDER
DIFFICULT CONDITIONS, AND EXPRESSED U.S. SUPPORT FOR THEIR
EFFORTS.



8. (C) REGINALD MATCHABE-HOVE, CHAIRMAN OF THE ZIMBABWE
ELECTION SUPPORT NETWORK (ZESN), EXPRESSED SERIOUS CONCERN
ABOUT THE ELECTORAL ENVIRONMENT AND THE NEGATIVE IMPACT OF
PROPOSED AMENDMENTS TO THE ELECTORAL ACT. PROVISIONS OF
PARTICULAR CONCERN WERE REQUIREMENTS THAT: ONLY CIVIL
SERVANTS WOULD SERVE AS MONITORS; ALL FUNDING FOR VOTER
EDUCATION MUST GO THROUGH THE GOZ-APPOINTED ESC; THE
REGISTRAR-GENERAL AND HIS OFFICERS WILL BE EMPOWERED TO
ALTER THE VOTERS ROLL AT ANY TIME; AND ONLY DIPLOMATS AND
SOLDIERS WOULD BE ABLE TO VOTE BY ABSENTEE BALLOT,
POTENTIALLY DISENFRANCHISING UP TO ONE MILLION ZIMBABWEANS
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 04 HARARE 03730 02 OF 05 141045Z
LIVING ABROAD. EILEEN SAWYER, EXECUTIVE-DIRECTOR OF THE
LEGAL RESOURCES FOUNDATION, SAID THE CITIZENSHIP ACT, WHICH
REQUIRES ZIMBABWEAN DUAL CITIZENS TO RENOUNCE THEIR FOREIGN
CITIZENSHIP, COULD DISENFRANCHISE UP TO TWO MILLION PEOPLE,
PRIMARILY COMMERCIAL FARMWORKERS OF MOZAMBICAN, MALAWIAN,
AND BOTSWANAN ORIGIN.



9. (C) TONY REELER, DIRECTOR OF THE WELL-RESPECTED HUMAN
RIGHTS ORGANIZATION, AMANI TRUST, SAID IT IS CLEAR FROM THE
PENDING LEGISLATION THAT GOVERNMENT IS TRYING TO CLOSE DOWN
PUBLIC SPACE. IN ADDITION TO THE BILLS DESCRIBED ABOVE,
REELER DECRIED THE PENDING ACCESS TO INFORMATION AND
PROTECTION OF PRIVACY ACT, WHICH COULD DO AWAY WITH
INDEPENDENT JOURNALISTS, AND THE "DRACONIAN" PUBLIC ORDER
AND SECURITY BILL, WHICH WILL GREATLY INCREASE THE POWERS
OF GOVERNMENT TO SQUELCH DISSENT. ACCORDING TO REELER,
VIOLENCE IS SPREADING, NOT DIMINISHING, THROUGHOUT THE
COUNTRY. THE ZANU-PF SUPPORTERS PERPETRATING THE
PREPONDERANCE OF THE VIOLENCE HAVE SET UP BASE CAMPS
NATIONWIDE, AND MOST OF THEM HAVE BEEN DRAWN FROM THE
GOVERNMENT'S RECENTLY-INAUGURATED NATIONAL YOUTH SERVICE
TRAINING PROGRAM. IN ADDITION, THE GOZ HAS ACCELERATED ITS
CAMPAIGN AGAINST THE MDC AT EVERY LEVEL. LYDIA ZIGOMO,
PRESIDENT OF THE ZIMBABWE WOMEN LAWYERS' ASSOCIATION, SAID

CONFIDENTIAL

CONFIDENTIAL PTQ3697

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DOTE-00 WHA-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EAP-00 EB-00 EUR-00
FAAE-00 FBIE-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 LAB-01
L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00
PC-01 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 TRSE-00
USIE-00 R-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00
SAS-00 SWCI-00 /008W


--------------------------

4B7533 141046Z /38
P 140948Z DEC 01
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0547
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
AMEMBASSY OSLO
AMEMBASSY CANBERRA
AMEMBASSY STOCKHOLM
AMEMBASSY KINGSTON
AMEMBASSY ABUJA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 05 HARARE 003730

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER
LONDON FOR GURNEY
PARIS FOR NEARY
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER

CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02 HARARE 03730 03 OF 05 141046Z
E.O. 12958: DECL. 12/04/11
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR ZI
SUBJECT: A/S KANSTEINER DELIVERS MESSAGE OF SUPPORT TO
OPPOSITION AND CIVIL SOCIETY REPRESENTATIVES

IT IS HARD TO GET A GOOD SENSE OF THE SCOPE OF THE
VIOLENCE, AND TO MEASURE ITS FULL IMPACT, BECAUSE SO MANY
RURAL AREAS HAVE BEEN DECLARED OFF-LIMITS TO ANYONE OTHER
THAN ZANU-PF SUPPORTERS.



10. (C) KANSTEINER ASKED AT WHAT POINT CIVIL SOCIETY WOULD
DECIDE THAT THE ELECTION CANNOT POSSIBLY BE FREE AND FAIR.
ANDREW NGONGO, DIRECTOR OF TRANSPARENCY
INTERNATIONAL/ZIMBABWE, SAID THE FOCUS OF MOST CIVIC
ORGANIZATIONS HAS BEEN ON PRESSING THE GOZ TO ABIDE BY
MINIMUM ELECTORAL STANDARDS, SUCH AS AN INDEPENDENT
ELECTION COMMISSION AND BALANCED ACCESS TO THE MEDIA, BUT
HE AGREED THAT CIVIC GROUPS NEED TO CONSIDER THE POINT
KANSTEINER RAISED. NGO REPRESENTATIVES RECOGNIZED THAT THE
MDC WAS COMMITTED TO PARTICIPATE IN THE ELECTIONS, COME
WHAT MAY, AND THAT CIVIL SOCIETY COULD NOT UNDERCUT THEIR
DECISION TO CONTEST.



11. (C) BRIAN KAGORO, A LEADING LAWYER AND COORDINATOR OF
THE CRISIS IN ZIMBABWE TASK FORCE, DECLARED THAT THE GOZ IS
PURSUING A "TOTAL STRATEGY" THAT WILL KEEP THEM IN POWER
WELL BEYOND THE ELECTION. THE RESTRICTIVE LAWS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE, YOUTHS IN THE NATIONAL SERVICE PROGRAM ARE
RECEIVING MILITARY TRAINING, WAR VETERANS ARE BEING ISSUED
GUNS; THESE ARE THE ACTIONS OF A GOVERNMENT PLANNING FOR
THE LONGER TERM, NOT JUST FOR AN ELECTION WHICH IS ONLY
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 03 HARARE 03730 03 OF 05 141046Z
MONTHS AWAY. GOVERNMENT, HE ASSERTED, IS "TRYING TO TAKE
US BACK TO 1965 AND RESUSCITATE RHODESIA," BY CLOSING DOWN
THE ECONOMY AND POLITICAL AND CIVIC SPACE. REELER LAMENTED
THAT ZIMBABWEANS CAN NO LONGER DEPEND ON THE COURTS TO ACT
INDEPENDENTLY AND MUST NOW DEPEND ON THE INTERNATIONAL
COMMUNITY TO HOLD ZANU-PF LEADERS ACCOUNTABLE FOR THEIR
ACTIONS.

JUSTICE SANDURA


--------------------------





12. (C) SUPREME COURT JUSTICE SANDURA IS ZIMBABWE'S SENIOR
BLACK JUDGE AND HAS SERVED ON THE SUPREME COURT SINCE 1998.
HE WAS WIDELY CONSIDERED THE LEADING CANDIDATE TO REPLACE
FORMER CHIEF JUSTICE GUBBAY BEFORE THE GOVERNMENT'S MOVE TO
STACK THE COUNTRY'S HIGHEST BENCH WITH SYMPATHETIC JURISTS.
SANDURA WAS CONTEMPTUOUS OF HIS NEW COLLEAGUES' DECEMBER 3
RULING ENDORSING THE CONSTITUTIONALITY OF THE FAST TRACK
RESETTLEMENT PROGRAM AND AGREEING THAT THE RULE OF LAW HAD
BEEN RESTORED ON COMMERCIAL FARMS (REF C). THE RULE OF
LAW, HE SAID, PREVAILS NOWHERE IN THIS COUNTRY, NOT ON
COMMERCIAL FARMS AND NOT IN URBAN AREAS. CHIEF JUSTICE
CHIDYAUSIKU'S JUDGMENT IN THE CASE WAS MERELY A POLITICAL
STATEMENT WHICH IGNORED THE LEGAL ISSUES. IN ORDER TO
CLAIM THAT IT WAS ABIDING BY THE RULE OF LAW, THE GOZ HAD
LEGALIZED THE OCCUPATION OF FARMS. "HOW CAN YOU PASS A LAW
SAYING THAT A TRESPASSER WHO COMES INTO YOUR HOUSE CAN STAY
THERE UNTIL YOU FIND SOMEWHERE ELSE TO PUT HIM?" THE
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IS WHAT IS DRIVING FAST TRACK,
SANDURA SAID, AS GIVING LAND TO THE PEOPLE IS THE ONLY
ISSUE MUGABE HAS TO TALK ABOUT.
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 04 HARARE 03730 03 OF 05 141046Z



13. (C) SANDURA DESCRIBED THE CAMPAIGN OF INTIMIDATION
AGAINST THE JUDICIARY DURING THE PAST YEAR, INCLUDING THE
INVASION OF THE SUPREME COURT IN DECEMBER 2000 AND THE
THREATS BY WAR VETERANS TO KILL JUDGES IN THEIR HOMES.
POINTING OUT THAT NOT A SINGLE GOVERNMENT MINISTER
CRITICIZED THESE DEVELOPMENTS, SANDURA ASKED WHAT MESSAGE
THAT SENT TO THE WAR VETERANS. ASKED WHETHER HE OR OTHER
MEMBERS OF THE SUPREME COURT HAD BEEN SUBJECTED TO
ADDITIONAL INTIMIDATION SINCE GUBBAY'S FORCED RESIGNATION
IN JULY, SANDURA SAID NO, BECAUSE THE GOZ HAD ACHIEVED ITS
OBJECTIVE OF APPOINTING FOUR NEW JUSTICES WHO WILL DO WHAT
THEY ARE TOLD.



14. (C) POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF NOTED THAT GOVERNMENT WAS
LIKELY UNHAPPY WITH SANDURA'S RECENT DECISION THAT THE
HARARE MAYORAL ELECTION MUST BE HELD BY FEBRUARY 11. THE
JUSTICE REPLIED THAT THE LAW WAS STRAIGHTFORWARD AND
PROVIDED LITTLE LATITUDE FOR RULING ANY OTHER WAY. HE WAS
NOT SURE WHETHER THE GOZ WOULD ABIDE BY THE DECISION,
HOWEVER. INSTEAD, HE THOUGHT GOVERNMENT MIGHT TRY TO PASS
ANOTHER LAW ALLOWING IT TO DELAY THE HARARE MUNICIPAL
ELECTION INDEFINITELY, SINCE AN OVERWHELMING MDC VICTORY IN
THE CAPITAL CITY IS A FOREGONE CONCLUSION. AT A MINIMUM,

CONFIDENTIAL

CONFIDENTIAL PTQ3700

PAGE 01 HARARE 03730 04 OF 05 141046Z
ACTION AF-00

INFO LOG-00 NP-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 INL-00 DINT-00 DODE-00
DOTE-00 WHA-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EAP-00 EB-00 EUR-00
FAAE-00 FBIE-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 LAB-01
L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00
PC-01 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 TRSE-00
USIE-00 R-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00
SAS-00 SWCI-00 /008W


--------------------------

4B7554 141046Z /38
P 140948Z DEC 01
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0548
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
AMEMBASSY OSLO
AMEMBASSY CANBERRA
AMEMBASSY STOCKHOLM
AMEMBASSY KINGSTON
AMEMBASSY ABUJA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 04 OF 05 HARARE 003730

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER
LONDON FOR GURNEY
PARIS FOR NEARY
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER

CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02 HARARE 03730 04 OF 05 141046Z
E.O. 12958: DECL. 12/04/11
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR ZI
SUBJECT: A/S KANSTEINER DELIVERS MESSAGE OF SUPPORT TO
OPPOSITION AND CIVIL SOCIETY REPRESENTATIVES

SANDURA POINTED OUT, THE GOZ WOULD HAVE TO PASS RETROACTIVE
LEGISLATION VALIDATING THE WORK OF THE COMMISSION -- SUCH
AS THE CONTRACTS THEY SIGNED AND OTHER COMMITMENTS THEY
ASSUMED -- IN CHARGE OF HARARE SINCE THE PREVIOUS MAYOR AND
CITY COUNCIL WERE FORCED OUT ON CORRUPTION CHARGES IN 1999.



15. (C) ASKED WHAT IMPACT AN MDC VICTORY WOULD HAVE ON THE
SUPREME COURT, SANDURA SAID HE SUSPECTS CHIDYAUSIKU MIGHT
RESIGN, SINCE HE HAS ALIGNED HIMSELF SO CLOSELY WITH ZANU-
PF. HE ADDED THAT AN MDC PRESIDENT AND HIS CABINET WOULD
HAVE GREAT DIFFICULTY GETTING ANY LAWS PASSED THROUGH
PARLIAMENT, GIVEN ZANU-PF'S MAJORITY IN THE LEGISLATIVE
BODY. A PRESIDENT TSVANGIRAI WOULD HAVE LITTLE CHOICE,
THEREFORE, BUT TO CALL FOR A NEW PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION,
WHICH IS A CLEAR PRESIDENTIAL PREROGATIVE UNDER THE
CONSTITUTION.

COMMERCIAL FARMERS UNION


--------------------------





16. (C) CFU ACTING PRESIDENT DOUG TAYLOR AND DEPUTY
DIRECTOR MALCOLM VOWLES PROVIDED A BLEAK ASSESSMENT OF
EXPECTED AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION. MAIZE PRODUCTION WOULD
LIKELY BE 25% OF NORMAL LEVELS, WHILE SOYBEAN AND WHEAT
PLANTINGS ARE EACH DOWN 60%. THE GOZ, VOWLES SAID, IS
STILL IN DENIAL ABOUT THE LOOMING FOOD SHORTAGES.
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 03 HARARE 03730 04 OF 05 141046Z
ACCORDING TO VOWLES, WHEN THE SADC MINISTERIAL COMMITTEE
(REF B) ASKED GOZ REPRESENTATIVES WHETHER ZIMBABWE WOULD
EXPERIENCE A SIGNIFICANT MAIZE SHORTAGE, THEY INITIALLY
TRIED TO DUCK THE QUESTION, THEN ONLY ADMITTED TO AN
EXPECTED SHORTFALL NEXT APRIL.



17. (C) ASKED WHETHER THERE HAD BEEN ANY REDUCTION IN
VIOLENCE AND INTIMIDATION ON THE FARMS, VOWLES SAID "NOT
THAT WE'VE SEEN." PROBLEMS ARISE WHEN PROPERTY-OWNERS
CONFRONT THE SQUATTERS OR TRY TO PLANT, SO MANY FARMERS ARE
STAYING ON THEIR FARMS WITHOUT CULTIVATING THEIR FIELDS.
KANSTEINER ASKED WHETHER SETTLERS ARE LEAVING OCCUPIED
PROPERTIES TO RETURN TO THEIR COMMUNAL LANDS. VOWLES HAD
HEARD OF ONE OR TWO CASES BUT NOTHING THAT COULD BE CALLED
A PATTERN. ASKED HOW THE SQUATTERS SURVIVE, VOWLES SAID BY
SELLING FIREWOOD, POACHING, AND EXTORTION. ANOTHER SOURCE
OF INCOME, TAYLOR ADDED, IS PEOPLE WITH JOBS IN NEARBY
TOWNS WHO PAY THE SQUATTERS TO SIT ON PLOTS OF LAND THEY
ARE HOPING TO ACQUIRE UNDER FAST TRACK.



18. (C) VOWLES ASKED FOR USG ASSISTANCE ON ONE ISSUE.
THERE WAS A BLATANT CONTRADICTION, HE SAID, BETWEEN THE
SUPREME COURT'S MAJOR RULING ON LAND ON DECEMBER 21, 2000,
AND ITS LATEST DECISION. THE CFU'S LAWYERS ARE NOW DOING A
LEGAL ANALYSIS OF THE CONTRADICTIONS, AND HAVE ASKED THE
INTERNATIONAL BAR ASSOCIATION TO ASSIST IN THAT PROCESS.
ANYTHING THE U.S. COULD DO TO REINFORCE THIS EFFORT WOULD
BE GREATLY APPRECIATED, VOWLES SAID. KANSTEINER SAID HE
WOULD BE GLAD TO TOUCH BASE WITH THE AMERICAN BAR
ASSOCIATION AND ENCOURAGE IT TO BE HELPFUL.

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UNDP RESIDENT REPRESENTATIVE


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19. (C) UNDP RESREP VICTOR ANGELO TOLD KANSTEINER THAT
ZIMBABWE IS JUST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE ROAD IN TERMS OF
POLITICAL CRISIS AND ECONOMIC HARDSHIP. ACCESS TO FOOD IS
ALREADY BECOMING DIFFICULT IN RURAL AREAS. FARMERS ARE
EITHER HOLDING ONTO THEIR GRAIN OR FEEDING IT TO THEIR
ANIMALS BECAUSE OF THE LOW PRICES BEING OFFERED BY
GOVERNMENT. ASKED WHETHER THE GOZ HAS SUFFICIENT RESOURCES
TO IMPORT GRAIN OVER THE NEXT THREE MONTHS, ANGELO SAID THE
FOREX SHORTAGE POSES A SIGNIFICANT OBSTACLE. THEY HAVE
RECENTLY IMPORTED 100,000 TONS OF MAIZE FROM SOUTH AFRICA,
WHICH WILL ONLY MAKE THE LOOMING MAIZE SHORTAGE "LESS
DRAMATIC." WFP IS READY TO MOVE, BUT THE GOZ HAS NOT
SIGNED THE LETTER OF UNDERSTANDING (LOU) BECAUSE IT
DISAGREES WITH WFP'S ANALYSIS OF THE CAUSES OF THE FOOD
CRISIS AND BECAUSE THE TWO SIDES HAVE YET TO AGREE ON A
DELIVERY MECHANISM. WFP'S POSITION ON THE LATTER POINT IS
CLEAR, ACCORDING TO ANGELO: THAT WFP MUST MAINTAIN CONTROL
OVER FOOD DELIVERIES, WHICH CANNOT BE USED BY EITHER MAJOR
POLITICAL PARTY TO LOBBY FOR VOTES. IF THE LOU WERE SIGNED
TODAY, ANGELO SAID WFP COULD HAVE AN OPERATION IN PLACE
WITHIN TWO WEEKS, AND WOULD BEGIN BY DRAWING DOWN SOME

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4B755C 141046Z /38
P 140948Z DEC 01
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0549
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
AMEMBASSY OSLO
AMEMBASSY CANBERRA
AMEMBASSY STOCKHOLM
AMEMBASSY KINGSTON
AMEMBASSY ABUJA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 05 OF 05 HARARE 003730

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER
LONDON FOR GURNEY
PARIS FOR NEARY
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER

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PAGE 02 HARARE 03730 05 OF 05 141046Z
E.O. 12958: DECL. 12/04/11
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR ZI
SUBJECT: A/S KANSTEINER DELIVERS MESSAGE OF SUPPORT TO
OPPOSITION AND CIVIL SOCIETY REPRESENTATIVES

STOCKS IN MOZAMBIQUE. (NOTE: THE LOU HAS BEEN SIGNED
SUBSEQUENTLY, WITH THE GOZ AGREEING TO WFP TERMS.)



20. (C) TURNING TO INTERNAL POLITICS, ANGELO SAID A
GROWING NUMBER OF PEOPLE WITHIN ZANU-PF REALIZE THE RULING
PARTY IS ON A SUICIDAL PATH, BUT THEY ARE NOT WILLING TO
STAND UP TO PRESIDENT MUGABE. POLICY IS DETERMINED BY A
SMALL GROUP OF HARDLINERS AROUND MUGABE, WHO ARE ENERGETIC
AND VOCAL. ANGELO INCLUDED IN THIS GROUP INFORMATION
MINISTER JONATHAN MOYO; JUSTICE MINISTER PATRICK CHINAMASA;
LOCAL GOVERNMENT MINISTER IGNATIUS CHOMBO ("VERY TOUGH AND
AMBITIOUS, A STRATEGIC THINKER, COMES FROM THE SAME REGION
AS MUGABE"); POLICE COMMISSIONER AUGUSTINE CHIHURI; AIR
FORCE COMMANDER PERENCE SHIRI; AND CHARLES UTETE ("A KEY
PLAYER; BECAUSE OF HIS TRAINING IN THE U.S., HE UNDERSTANDS
THE NEED TO COMPROMISE AND WOULD BE READY TO DO BUSINESS.")
ASKED WHETHER THE MEMBERS OF THIS GROUP WOULD CUT MUGABE
LOOSE, ANGELO SAID YES, BECAUSE THEY KNOW THE LAWS OF HUMAN
NATURE, THAT MUGABE WILL GO SOONER OR LATER. THE MEMBERS
OF THIS GROUP ARE PRIMARILY CONCERNED WITH THREE ISSUES:
THE ELECTION, SUCCESSION, AND PROTECTION (OF ASSETS AND
FROM PROSECUTION). UNLESS THESE THREE ISSUES ARE
ADDRESSED, ANGELO EMPHASIZED, WE WILL NOT SEE ANY CHANGE IN
THE COURSE OF EVENTS IN ZIMBABWE.



21. (C) ASKED WHETHER THE UN PLANNED TO MOUNT AN ELECTION
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PAGE 03 HARARE 03730 05 OF 05 141046Z
OBSERVATION EFFORT, ANGELO SAID NO. THE UN HAD TOLD THE
GOZ IT WANTED AN INVITATION BY SEPTEMBER BECAUSE IT DID NOT
WANT A TEAM TO COME IN AT THE LAST MINUTE MERELY TO ENDORSE
A FLAWED PROCESS. THE AMBASSADOR SAID SOME ANALYSTS
CONTEND THAT THE GOZ IS EMPLOYING A COMPREHENSIVE, WELL-
COORDINATED STRATEGY TO ENSURE IT WINS THE ELECTION. IS
THE STRATEGY REALLY THAT WELL-ORCHESTRATED, OR IS IT MOSTLY
CONFUSION AND DISORDER? A COMBINATION OF THE TWO, ANGELO
REPLIED. THE GOZ IS DOING THINGS LIKE MAKING IT VERY
DIFFICULT FOR YOUNG, URBAN VOTERS TO REGISTER BUT WILL
FIND, IN THE END, THAT IT IS NOT EASY TO MANAGE THE VOTE-
COUNTING PROCESS TO ITS SATISFACTION. THE GOZ, HE SAID,
COULD EXPERIENCE "A VERY COLD SHOWER" ONCE THE VOTES ARE
COUNTED. THE ANTI-ZANU-PF PROTEST VOTE IS GROWING DAILY
ACROSS THE COUNTRY, AS MORE AND MORE PEOPLE REALIZE THEIR
COUNTRY IS BEING RUINED AND DO NOT WANT ZIMBABWE TO BECOME
THE LATEST FAILED AFRICAN STATE.



22. (C) COMMENT: IN A CONVERSATION WITH THE AMBASSADOR
FOLLOWING A/S KANSTEINER'S DEPARTURE, ANGELO AGREED TO CALL
CHINAMASA'S BLUFF ON TRANSLUCENT BALLOT BOXES. HE REPORTED
BACK THAT CHINAMASA ACCEPTED THE OFFER AND HAD PROMISED TO
SEND AN OFFICIAL REQUEST. WHEN AND IF THIS ARRIVES, WE
HAVE PRE-PROGRAMMED ESF WITH WHICH TO PROVIDE PARTIAL
FUNDING FOR THIS COMMODITY THROUGH UNDP. END COMMENT.

SULLIVAN

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