AGOA DECISION CONVEYED TO GOVERNMENT OF ZIMBABWE

C O N F I D E N T I A L HARARE 003715 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER LONDON FOR GURNEY PARIS FOR NEARY NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER E.O. 12958: DECL. 12/13/11 TAGS: ETRD ECON PHUM PREL ZI SUBJECT: AGOA DECISION CONVEYED TO GOVERNMENT OF ZIMBABWE REF: STATE 211333 CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF MATT HARRINGTON. REASONS: 1.5 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (U) POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF DELIVERED REFTEL TALKING POINTS ON DECEMBER 13 TO MINISTRY OF FINANCE PERMANENT SECRETARY NICHOLAS NCUBE. POLCHIEF REPORTED THAT ZIMBABWE SIPDIS WOULD NOT QUALIFY FOR AGOA BENEFITS IN 2002, DESCRIBED THE REASONS ELABORATED IN REFTEL, AND LEFT NCUBE WITH A NON- PAPER. HE STRESSED THAT THIS WAS NOT A PERMANENT DECISION. WE CONDUCT AN ELIGIBILITY REVIEW ANNUALLY, AND SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS IN ADDRESSING USG CONCERNS WOULD STRENGTHEN ZIMBABWE'S CHANCES FOR ELIGIBILITY IN 2003. ¶2. (C) THE DECISION WAS NOT A SURPRISE TO NCUBE. WHILE HE WOULD HAVE PREFERRED A DIFFERENT OUTCOME, HE DESCRIBED THE USG DETERMINATION AS "STRAIGHTFORWARD, BASED PRIMARILY ON GOOD GOVERNANCE CONCERNS." HE LAMENTED THAT THE GOVERNMENT HAS BEEN IN ELECTION MODE FOR ALMOST THREE YEARS, BEGINNING WITH THE FAILED CAMPAIGN FOR A NEW CONSTITUTION IN 1999. DURING THAT PERIOD, ALL GOZ POLICIES HAVE BEEN CONSIDERED WITH THE NEED TO WIN THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN MIND. HE AND FINANCE MINISTER MAKONI HAVE BEEN RESTRICTED PRIMARILY TO DAMAGE CONTROL -- HE SHOOK HIS HEAD AT SOME OF THE PROPOSALS THAT HAVE LANDED ON HIS DESK -- BUT HE HOPED THAT, ONCE THE ELECTION IS OVER, HE AND HIS BOSS CAN BEGIN TO NURSE ZIMBABWE'S ECONOMY BACK TO HEALTH. ¶3. (C) COMMENT: LIKE HIS BOSS, SIMBA MAKONI, NCUBE IS A FRANK INTERLOCUTOR WHO IS USUALLY HONEST ABOUT HIS UNHAPPINESS OVER THE NATIONAL POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT HERE. IN THIS MEETING, HE WAS MOST FRUSTRATED THAT ZANU-PF'S DETERMINATION TO WIN THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION HAS PREVENTED HIS MINISTRY FROM ADDRESSING THIS COUNTRY'S CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 03715 131614Z SERIOUS ECONOMIC PROBLEMS, AND HE WAS RESIGNED TO THE FACT THAT THIS WOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE UNTIL THE ELECTION. WE HAVE NO DOUBT THAT THE AGOA DECISION, FOLLOWING SO CLOSELY ON THE HEELS OF ZDERA'S PASSAGE, WILL LEAD THE GOZ TO MOVE US UP A NOTCH OR TWO ON THE ENEMIES LIST AND TO SUBJECT US TO FURTHER ROASTING FROM THE GOVERNMENT- CONTROLLED PRESS -- LED BY INFORMATION MINISTER JONATHAN MOYO. SULLIVAN CONFIDENTIAL >