A/S KANSTEINER DELIVERS TOUGH MESSAGE TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 06 HARARE 003690 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER LONDON FOR GURNEY PARIS FOR NEARY NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER E.O. 12958: DECL. 12/12/11 TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM PINR ZI SUBJECT: A/S KANSTEINER DELIVERS TOUGH MESSAGE TO ZIMBABWEAN OFFICIALS CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF MATT HARRINGTON. REASONS: 1.5 (B) AND (D). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) IN MEETINGS DECEMBER 10-11 WITH SPEAKER OF PARLIAMENT EMMERSON MNANGAGWA, FOREIGN MINISTER STANISLAUS MUDENGE, AND FINANCE MINISTER SIMBA MAKONI -- AF ASSISTANT SECRETARY KANSTEINER EXPLAINED ZDERA AND ITS IMPLICATIONS. SIPDIS HE EMPHASIZED THAT THERE IS STILL TIME FOR THE GOVERNMENT OF ZIMBABWE TO AVOID RESTRICTIONS TARGETED AT THE RULING ELITE BY REDUCING VIOLENCE AND INTIMIDATION AND ENSURING THE ELECTORAL PROCESS IS FREE AND FAIR. KANSTEINER SAID THE USG WOULD USE THE ELECTORAL NORMS AND STANDARDS ENDORSED IN MARCH BY THE SADC PARLIAMENTARY FORUM AS OUR BENCHMARKS IN ASSESSING THE FAIRNESS OF THE ELECTORAL PROCESS. MNANGAGWA CLAIMED THAT THE POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT HAD IMPROVED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE PREVIOUS THREE MONTHS, AND BLAMED MOST INCIDENTS OF VIOLENCE ON THE MDC AND ITS SUPPORTERS. HE PROMISED TO "STUDY" OUR CONCERNS ABOUT PROPOSED AMENDMENTS TO THE ELECTORAL ACT, AND LATER CALLED THE AMBASSADOR TO SAY HE AND THE PRESIDENT HAD DECIDED TO EXPUNGE ONE PARTICULARLY TROUBLING PROVISION. MUDENGE WAS COMBATIVE, DISMISSING KANSTEINER'S REFERENCES TO PRESIDENT MBEKI'S RECENT EXPRESSIONS OF CONCERN ABOUT ZIMBABWE AND INSISTING THAT THE SADC-PF ELECTORAL NORMS AND STANDARDS CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 03690 01 OF 06 121706Z DOCUMENT WAS AN "INTERNAL COMMITMENT AMONG FRIENDS" THAT SHOULD NOT RECEIVE SCRUTINY FROM OUTSIDE THE REGION. THE FOREIGN MINISTER PRESSED FOR A LARGE U.S. ROLE IN THE DRC, AND SAID ZIMBABWEAN TROOPS WOULD WITHDRAW WHEN ASKED TO DO SO BY KINSHASA, "LUSAKA OR NO LUSAKA." MAKONI PAINTED A DISMAL PICTURE OF ZIMBABWE'S SHORT-TERM ECONOMIC PROSPECTS, AND ENGAGED CONSTRUCTIVELY WITH US ABOUT HOW THE GOZ MIGHT FORESTALL IMPOSITION OF TARGETED RESTRICTIONS ON ITS LEADERSHIP. END SUMMARY. ZDERA -------------- ¶2. (C) THE PASSAGE OF THE ZIMBABWE DEMOCRACY AND ECONOMIC RECOVERY ACT (ZDERA) SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE A/S KANSTEINER'S ARRIVAL ENSURED THAT ZDERA WOULD FIGURE PROMINENTLY IN HIS DISCUSSIONS. THE ASSISTANT SECRETARY TOLD ALL THREE GOZ MINISTERS THAT ZDERA REFLECTS SERIOUS CONGRESSIONAL CONCERNS -- SHARED BY THE ADMINISTRATION -- ABOUT THE DIRECTION OF EVENTS IN ZIMBABWE. ONCE THE SENATE AND HOUSE RECONCILE THE MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THEIR VERSIONS, THE SINGLE TEXT WILL BE SENT TO THE PRESIDENT FOR SIGNATURE INTO LAW. KANSTEINER EMPHASIZED THAT ZDERA IS NOT A SANCTIONS BILL. RATHER, IT INCLUDES CARROTS AND STICKS WHICH CAN BE USED TO INFLUENCE THE GOZ IN A POSITIVE DIRECTION, AND INSTRUCTS THE ADMINISTRATION TO CONSULT WITH KEY INTERNATIONAL PARTNERS -- THE EU, THE COMMONWEALTH, AND SADC -- ABOUT THEIR IMPLEMENTATION. IF THE GOZ DOES NOT MEET CERTAIN BENCHMARKS -- ENSURING A RETURN TO THE RULE OF LAW, RESPECT FOR HUMAN RIGHTS, AN END TO GOVERNMENT- SANCTIONED VIOLENCE, AND A FREE AND FAIR ELECTION -- THE CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 03690 01 OF 06 121706Z USG HAS THE OPTION OF IMPOSING RESTRICTIONS ON MEMBERS OF ZIMBABWE'S RULING ELITE, INCLUDING TRAVEL BANS AND FREEZING OF ASSETS. THERE IS STILL TIME FOR THE GOZ TO REVERSE COURSE AND AVOID SUCH PUNITIVE ACTION, KANSTEINER ASSERTED. ¶3. (C) SPEAKER OF PARLIAMENT EMMERSON MNANGAGWA EXPRESSED SURPRISE THAT THE U.S. CONGRESS WOULD PASS SUCH A BILL, AS ZIMBABWE ASPIRES TO BE A "SHINING DEMOCRACY." THE KEY ACTORS WHO NEED TO ENSURE THAT THE ELECTIONS ARE FREE AND FAIR, ACCORDING TO MNANGAGWA, ARE ZIMBABWEANS THEMSELVES. IN A TENSE EXCHANGE, FM MUDENGE SAID THE BILL WAS "NOT HELPFUL," AND DISDAINFULLY REFERRED TO THE SECTION ON TARGETED PERSONAL SANCTIONS AS "JESSE HELMS-INSPIRED." KANSTEINER POINTED OUT THAT THE BILL HAD PASSED OVERWHELMINGLY IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES, AND THAT NOT A SINGLE MEMBER OF THE CONGRESSIONAL BLACK CAUCUS HAD VOTED AGAINST IT. MUDENGE SAID HE UNDERSTOOD WHERE THE BILL WAS COMING FROM BUT URGED THE USG TO CONVEY ITS CONCERNS PRIVATELY TO THE GOZ, NOT DO SO WITH GRAND GESTURES OR THROUGH THE MEDIA. ¶4. (C) IN A CONSTRUCTIVE AND OPEN CONVERSATION, FINANCE MINISTER MAKONI ASKED WHAT ZIMBABWE NEEDED TO DO TO AVOID CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ7918 PAGE 01 HARARE 03690 02 OF 06 121707Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 AID-00 CIAE-00 DODE-00 SRPP-00 EB-00 EUR-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 L-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 NSCE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 SSO-00 SS-00 STR-00 TRSE-00 T-00 USIE-00 SNIS-00 NISC-00 PMB-00 PRM-00 DRL-02 G-00 SAS-00 /007W -------------- 4A89D7 121707Z /68 O 121555Z DEC 01 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0517 INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY AMEMBASSY NAIROBI AMEMBASSY OSLO AMEMBASSY CANBERRA AMEMBASSY STOCKHOLM AMEMBASSY KINGSTON AMEMBASSY ABUJA C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 06 HARARE 003690 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER LONDON FOR GURNEY PARIS FOR NEARY NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER E.O. 12958: DECL. 12/12/11 CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 03690 02 OF 06 121707Z TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM PINR ZI SUBJECT: A/S KANSTEINER DELIVERS TOUGH MESSAGE TO ZIMBABWEAN OFFICIALS IMPLEMENTATION OF THE TARGETED RESTRICTIONS. THE GOZ SHOULD DO EVERYTHING POSSIBLE TO ENSURE THAT THE ELECTION PROCESS IS TRANSPARENT AND ABOVE BOARD, AND REDUCE VIOLENCE AND INTIMIDATION, KANSTEINER SAID. THE ASSISTANT SECRETARY EMPHASIZED THAT THE GOZ'S OWN ACTIONS WILL DETERMINE WHETHER THE RESTRICTIONS WILL BE IMPLEMENTED. "YOU HAVE YOUR FINGER ON THE TRIGGER," HE SAID, "AND YOU CAN DETERMINE WHETHER TO PULL IT." VIOLENCE -------------- ¶5. (C) KANSTEINER SAID THE USG FULLY SHARED PRESIDENT MBEKI'S STRONG CONCERNS ABOUT ONGOING VIOLENCE AND INTIMIDATION WHICH, ALTHOUGH NOT ONE-SIDED, WAS PREDOMINANTLY TARGETED AGAINST OPPOSITION SUPPORTERS. MNANGAGWA BLAMED THE VIOLENCE ON THE MDC AND ITS SUPPORTERS. ZANU-PF, HE SAID, IS THE DOMINANT PARTY WHICH HAS NO INTEREST IN SEEKING CONFRONTATION WITH "SMALL PEOPLE." IT IS THE NEWCOMERS TO THE POLITICAL SCENE, THOSE STRIVING FOR POWER, WHO INITIATE SUCH PROBLEMS. MNANGAGWA SAID HE THOUGHT THE POLITICAL SITUATION HAD IMPROVED DURING THE PAST THREE MONTHS. NO MORE LAND INVASIONS HAVE OCCURRED, HE CLAIMED, AND THERE IS NOW LESS VIOLENCE ON FARMS. THE AMBASSADOR RECALLED AN EARLIER CONVERSATION WITH MNANGAGWA IN WHICH THE SPEAKER HAD INDICATED HIS INTEREST IN SECURING THE AGREEMENT OF THE TWO MAJOR PARTIES CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 03690 02 OF 06 121707Z TO AN ELECTORAL CODE OF CONDUCT. SUCH AN AGREEMENT WOULD SEND A VERY POSITIVE SIGNAL TO THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY, KANSTEINER ADDED. MNANGAGWA REPORTED THAT ONGOING TALKS BETWEEN ZANU-PF AND THE MDC ARE FOCUSED ON THIS ISSUE, BUT HE DID NOT ELABORATE ON WHETHER MUCH PROGRESS HAD BEEN ACHIEVED. ¶6. (C) KANSTEINER REGISTERED HIS CONCERN WITH MNANGAGWA ABOUT THE CASE OF FLETCHER DULINI-NCUBE, THE MDC'S NATIONAL TREASURER. DULINI-NCUBE HAS BEEN IN DETENTION SINCE MID- NOVEMBER, CHARGED WITH INVOLVEMENT IN THE MURDER OF LATE WAR VETERAN LEADER CAIN NKALA. THE ASSISTANT SECRETARY SAID HE UNDERSTOOD CRIMINAL INVESTIGATIONS ARE ONGOING, BUT HE URGED THAT DULINI-NCUBE BE GRANTED BAIL IN THE INTERIM, AS HIS HEALTH IS APPARENTLY FAILING. MNANGAGWA SAID IT IS IMPORTANT THAT THE LAW TAKE ITS COURSE AND THAT THE MDC OFFICIAL WOULD EVENTUALLY BE RELEASED IF ACQUITTED. ¶7. (C) FM MUDENGE STRONGLY OBJECTED TO KANSTEINER'S REFERENCE TO PRESIDENT MBEKI. HE SAID HE HAD TOLD BRITISH FM JACK STRAW THE DAY BEFORE WHEN HE HAD MADE A SIMILAR COMMENT THAT STRAW DID NOT SPEAK FOR THABO MBEKI. "WHEN I WANT TO KNOW WHAT THE SOUTH AFRICANS THINK, I WILL ASK THEM. TODAY, I WANT TO HEAR U.S. VIEWS." HE CLAIMED THAT THE GOZ HAS MADE SIGNIFICANT EFFORTS TO REDUCE VIOLENCE, BUT LAMENTED THAT THE TASK IS DIFFICULT SINCE LAND IS AN "EMOTIVE ISSUE." SO ARE POLITICS AND ELECTIONS, KANSTEINER COUNTERED. YES, MUDENGE AGREED, BUT HE NOTED THAT ZANU-PF HAD LOST TO THE MDC IN THE DECEMBER 8-9 MAYORAL ELECTION IN CHEGUTU (SEPTEL) AND WOULD LOSE THE HARARE MAYORAL ELECTION, DUE TO TAKE PLACE BY FEBRUARY 11. GIVEN THE FACT CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 03690 02 OF 06 121707Z THAT THE MDC HAS WON ALL THREE MAYORAL ELECTIONS HELD THIS YEAR, MUDENGE SAID THE MDC'S COMPLAINTS ABOUT THE UNFAIRNESS OF THE ELECTORAL PROCESS ARE MERELY TACTICAL. YOU WANT RULE OF LAW, WE'LL GIVE YOU RULE OF LAW -------------- --- ¶8. (C) A/S KANSTEINER EXPRESSED CONCERN ABOUT PENDING LEGISLATION DRAFTED BY THE GOZ. PROPOSED AMENDMENTS TO THE ELECTORAL ACT ARE VERY RESTRICTIVE -- THE MOST WORRISOME PROVISIONS WOULD CRIMINALIZE POLITICAL POSTERS, LIMIT VOTER EDUCATION, AND REQUIRE THAT ELECTION MONITORS BE DRAWN FROM THE RANKS OF CIVIL SERVANTS. THE ACCESS TO INFORMATION AND PROTECTION OF PRIVACY BILL WAS ALSO TROUBLING, AS IT WOULD PLACE STRINGENT CONSTRAINTS ON THE MEDIA, REQUIRING, FOR INSTANCE, THE LICENSING OF JOURNALISTS BY THE MINISTER OF INFORMATION AND FORBIDDING ARTICLES OR POLITICAL CARTOONS THAT DENIGRATE OR "INCITE DISAFFECTION FOR" THE PRESIDENT OR LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES. ¶9. (C) WHEN MNANGAGWA PROFESSED IGNORANCE OF THE PROVISION ON POLITICAL POSTERS, THE AMBASSADOR SHOWED HIM A COPY OF THE TEXT. MNANGAGWA SAID THE INTENTION OF THAT PROVISION CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ7928 PAGE 01 HARARE 03690 03 OF 06 121708Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 AID-00 CIAE-00 DODE-00 SRPP-00 EB-00 EUR-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 L-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 NSCE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 SSO-00 SS-00 STR-00 TRSE-00 T-00 USIE-00 SNIS-00 NISC-00 PMB-00 PRM-00 DRL-02 G-00 SAS-00 /007W -------------- 4A8A19 121708Z /68 O 121555Z DEC 01 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0518 INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY AMEMBASSY NAIROBI AMEMBASSY OSLO AMEMBASSY CANBERRA AMEMBASSY STOCKHOLM AMEMBASSY KINGSTON AMEMBASSY ABUJA C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 06 HARARE 003690 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER LONDON FOR GURNEY PARIS FOR NEARY NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER E.O. 12958: DECL. 12/12/11 CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 03690 03 OF 06 121708Z TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM PINR ZI SUBJECT: A/S KANSTEINER DELIVERS TOUGH MESSAGE TO ZIMBABWEAN OFFICIALS WAS TO PROHIBIT THE DEFACING OF PROPERTY AND CREATION OF SITUATIONS THAT MIGHT ENDANGER ORDINARY CITIZENS -- SUCH AS COVERING TRAFFIC SIGNS WITH POLITICAL GRAFFITI. MNANGAGWA THOUGHT THAT MONITORS WOULD BE DRAWN FROM THE PUBLIC AT LARGE, NOT JUST CIVIL SERVANTS. WHEN THE AMBASSADOR AGAIN POINTED OUT THE RELEVANT PROVISION IN THE PROPOSED LEGISLATION, MNANGAGWA SAID HE HAD BEEN UNAWARE OF THAT CHANGE AND UNDERTOOK TO STUDY IT. REGARDING INTERNATIONAL OBSERVERS, MNANGAGWA SAID DELEGATIONS FROM THE OAU, THE COMMONWEALTH, THE EU, AND THE SADC PARLIAMENTARY FORUM HAD OBSERVED PREVIOUS ELECTIONS, BUT HE WAS NOT SURE WHETHER THE EU WOULD BE INVITED THIS TIME. MNANGAGWA SAID HE SUPPORTED THE PROPOSED REQUIREMENT THAT NGOS INTENDING TO CONDUCT VOTER EDUCATION REGISTER WITH THE ESC, WHICH WOULD ALSO APPROVE ANY MATERIALS THEY PLANNED TO USE. GOVERNMENT HAD LITTLE CHOICE BUT TO TAKE THIS STEP, MNANGAGWA INSISTED, AS NGOS IN THE PAST WERE GIVEN FREE REIN TO CONDUCT VOTER EDUCATION CAMPAIGNS, AND SOME USED THIS FREEDOM TO LOBBY FOR PARTICULAR POLITICAL PARTIES. ¶10. (C) (NOTE: ASKED AT THE END OF THEIR CONVERSATION HOW MANY OF THE SPEAKER'S CHILDREN ARE STUDYING IN THE U.S., MNANGAGWA SAID TWO, BOTH AT MIDLANDS UNIVERSITY IN TEXAS. TWO DAYS LATER, THE SPEAKER PHONED THE AMBASSADOR TO SAY THAT HE AND THE PRESIDENT HAD "FIXED" THE ELECTORAL ACT CONCERNS WE HAD RAISED, SPECIFICALLY EXPUNGING THE REQUIREMENT THAT ONLY CIVIL SERVANTS COULD SERVE AS CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 03690 03 OF 06 121708Z MONITORS. HE ALSO EXPRESSED HIS OPENNESS TO FINDING A MECHANISM WHEREBY POLITICAL PARTIES CAN CONTRIBUTE TO ESC DELIBERATIONS. END NOTE.) ¶11. (C) WHEN KANSTEINER PRAISED THE GOZ DECISION TO EXTEND THE VOTER REGISTRATION DEADLINE FROM DECEMBER 9 TO DECEMBER 19, MUDENGE SAID ZANU-PF NEEDED MORE TIME TO GETS ITS SUPPORTERS REGISTERED. THE FOREIGN MINISTER SAID SOME GOOD CHANGES ARE INCLUDED IN THE PROPOSED ELECTORAL ACT AMENDMENTS. ONE, FOR INSTANCE, WOULD PERMIT POLITICAL PARTY AGENTS TO JOIN THE PRESIDING ELECTION OFFICIAL IN CHECKING FOR INDELIBLE INK ON THE VOTER'S HANDS -- TO ENSURE THEY HAVE NOT ALREADY CAST A BALLOT -- AND TO OBSERVE AT CLOSE-RANGE THE SEARCH FOR THE VOTER'S NAME ON THE REGISTER. (NOTE: IN THE PAST, PARTY AGENTS HAVE HAD TO STAND ACROSS THE ROOM AS LONG-DISTANCE SPECTATORS. END NOTE.) MUDENGE SAID THE PRESIDING OFFICIAL, A POLICE OFFICER, AND A REPRESENTATIVE OF THE REGISTRAR-GENERAL'S OFFICE WOULD ENTER THE BOOTH WITH BLIND OR OTHERWISE INCAPACITATED VOTERS TO HELP THEM MARK THE BALLOT FOR THE CANDIDATE OF THEIR CHOICE. KANSTEINER ASKED WHETHER MUDENGE WAS CONCERNED THAT THE THREE PEOPLE HELPING SUCH INDIVIDUALS TO VOTE ARE CIVIL SERVANTS WHO DEPEND ON GOVERNMENT FOR THEIR LIVELIHOODS. "NO, MY FRIEND," MUDENGE REPLIED, "MOST CIVIL SERVANTS ARE MDC SUPPORTERS WHO WILL WORK TO ENSURE AN OPPOSITION VICTORY." HE THEN TURNED TO THE FOUR NOTETAKERS ON EITHER SIDE OF HIM AND SAID, "I DON'T KNOW FOR SURE, BUT I SUSPECT THAT THESE MEMBERS OF MY STAFF PROBABLY WILL VOTE FOR THE MDC." IT WOULD BE HARD TO SELL THAT ARGUMENT TO THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY, KANSTEINER WARNED. CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 03690 03 OF 06 121708Z ¶12. (C) MUDENGE CLAIMED THAT THE ACCESS TO INFORMATION AND PROTECTION OF PRIVACY BILL WAS MODELED CLOSELY ON SIMILAR LEGISLATION IN SOUTH AFRICA AND THE UNITED KINGDOM. TAKING THE WORST OF TWO PIECES OF LEGISLATION IS NOT NECESSARILY THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION, KANSTEINER REMARKED. THE FOREIGN MINISTER SAID THE PRESS SEEMED MOST WORRIED BY THE PROPOSED ESTABLISHMENT OF A MEDIA ETHICS COMMISSION, WHICH WILL ENSURE THAT WHAT JOURNALISTS WRITE IS TRUTHFUL. STRAIGHT-FACED, THE ASSISTANT SECRETARY SAID HE WAS WORRIED ABOUT THE DRAFT LAW'S IMPACT ON THE (GOVERNMENT-CONTROLLED) "THE HERALD," SINCE POLITICAL PARTIES WON'T BE PERMITTED TO RUN NEWSPAPERS AND "THE HERALD" IS AN INSTRUMENT OF ZANU- PF. "THE HERALD" IS PART OF THE PUBLIC MEDIA, MUDENGE RETORTED -- "WE DON'T RUN NEWSPAPERS." HE DISMISSED CONCERNS ABOUT MEDIA FREEDOM, SAYING ZANU-PF REGULARLY GETS "SLAUGHTERED" BY THE INDEPENDENT PRESS. "THESE PEOPLE HAVE THE FREEDOM TO SAY WHATEVER THEY WANT." KANSTEINER EXPRESSED CONCERN THAT JOHANNESBURG-BASED CORRESPONDENTS FROM THE NEW YORK TIMES AND THE WASHINGTON POST WERE RECENTLY DENIED ZIMBABWEAN VISAS. MUDENGE SAID HE WAS UNFAMILIAR WITH THEIR CASES. CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ7929 PAGE 01 HARARE 03690 04 OF 06 121709Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 AID-00 CIAE-00 DODE-00 SRPP-00 EB-00 EUR-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 L-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 NSCE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 SSO-00 SS-00 STR-00 TRSE-00 T-00 USIE-00 SNIS-00 NISC-00 PMB-00 PRM-00 DRL-02 G-00 SAS-00 /007W -------------- 4A8A28 121709Z /68 O 121555Z DEC 01 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0519 INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY AMEMBASSY NAIROBI AMEMBASSY OSLO AMEMBASSY CANBERRA AMEMBASSY STOCKHOLM AMEMBASSY KINGSTON AMEMBASSY ABUJA C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 04 OF 06 HARARE 003690 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER LONDON FOR GURNEY PARIS FOR NEARY NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER E.O. 12958: DECL. 12/12/11 CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 03690 04 OF 06 121709Z TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM PINR ZI SUBJECT: A/S KANSTEINER DELIVERS TOUGH MESSAGE TO ZIMBABWEAN OFFICIALS ¶13. (C) MAKONI SUGGESTED THAT COMPLAINTS ABOUT THE ELECTORAL ACT AMENDMENTS ARE UNFORTUNATE, AS THE GOZ IS TRYING TO STRENGTHEN THE ESC BY GIVING IT MORE STATUTORY AUTHORITY AND MORE RESOURCES, SO THAT IT CAN ENSURE THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IS BEYOND REPROACH. HE ASKED WHY THE ESC WAS NOT CONSIDERED INDEPENDENT, AND THE AMBASSADOR RESPONDED THAT THERE IS NO OPPORTUNITY FOR POLITICAL PARTIES TO HAVE INPUT. MAKONI SAID HE DID NOT WANT TO DISMISS USG CONCERNS, BUT HE THOUGHT THAT LACK OF TRUST AND CONFIDENCE IN THE SYSTEM WERE THE REAL PROBLEM, NOT NECESSARILY THE SUBSTANCE OF THE DRAFT LEGISLATION. HE THOUGHT IT MIGHT BE A GOOD IDEA IF GOVERNMENT SAT DOWN WITH KEY STAKEHOLDERS TO WALK THROUGH THESE ISSUES. PERHAPS, AS A STARTING POINT, MNANGAGWA -- AS THE RULING PARTY'S SECRETARY FOR ADMINISTRATION -- AND MDC SECRETARY-GENERAL SIPDIS WELSHMAN NCUBE COULD REACH AGREEMENT ON HOW THE TWO PARTIES CAN COMPETE FAIRLY. THE AMBASSADOR SUGGESTED THAT ONE WAY TO ADDRESS THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE WOULD BE TO ALLOW REPRESENTATIVES OF BOTH MAJOR POLITICAL PARTIES TO SIT ON THE ESC. SADC ELECTORAL NORMS AND STANDARDS -------------- ¶14. (C) KANSTEINER TOLD HIS INTERLOCUTORS THE USG WOULD USE THE ELECTORAL NORMS AND STANDARDS ENDORSED IN MARCH 2001 BY THE SADC PARLIAMENTARY FORUM -- IN A GATHERING CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 03690 04 OF 06 121709Z ATTENDED BY MNANGAGWA -- AS ITS BENCHMARKS FOR ASSESSING THE ELECTORAL PROCESS. BALANCED ACCESS TO THE MEDIA FOR ALL POLITICAL PARTIES WAS ONE IMPORTANT POINT ADDRESSED IN THE SADC-PF DOCUMENT, AND AN ISSUE WE AND OTHERS IN THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY WILL WATCH CLOSELY AS AN INDICATION OF THE FAIRNESS OF THE PROCESS. YES, MNANGAGWA SAID, HE HAD ATTENDED THAT MEETING BUT WAS NOT SURE WHERE THE GOZ STOOD ON THOSE NORMS AND STANDARDS. MNANGAGWA DECLARED THAT, AFTER THE ELECTION DATES ARE ANNOUNCED, POLITICAL PARTIES WILL BE ALLOCATED FREE RADIO AND TELEVISION TIME ACCORDING TO THE PERCENTAGE OF SEATS THEY HOLD IN PARLIAMENT. ANY PARTY THAT WANTS ADDITIONAL TIME CAN PURCHASE IT. ¶15. (C) MUDENGE WAS NOT INTERESTED IN DISCUSSING THE SADC- PF'S ELECTORAL NORMS. "PLEASE LEAVE OUT OUR COMMITMENTS TO OUR SADC FRIENDS," HE SAID POINTEDLY. "THAT'S AN INTERNAL DOCUMENT. WE HAVE WAYS OF HELPING EACH OTHER BECAUSE WE WANT TO GROW AS A REGION." KANSTEINER AGREED WITH MUDENGE'S LATTER POINT, SAYING THAT WAS PART OF THE REASON PRESIDENT MBEKI SEEMED SO CONCERNED ABOUT EVENTS IN ZIMBABWE. "LEAVE MBEKI," MUDENGE ASSERTED. "I SPEAK TO HIS MINISTER REGULARLY BUT, NOW, I WANT TO HEAR YOUR CONCERNS." "OUR CONCERNS ARE THEIR CONCERNS," KANSTEINER REPLIED. THE FOREIGN MINISTER SAID SOUTH AFRICA IS "TOTALLY OPPOSED" TO THE SANCTIONS THE UNITED STATES HAD PLACED ON ZIMBABWE, WHICH HURTS ZIMBABWEANS AND DOES NOT HELP OUR BILATERAL DIALOGUE. KANSTEINER REITERATED THAT THE USG HAS NOT IMPOSED SANCTIONS ON ZIMBABWE. ZDERA RECOMMENDS IMPOSITION OF RESTRICTIONS ON THE RULING ELITE, WHICH MUST BE HELD ACCOUNTABLE FOR THEIR FAILURE TO ADDRESS CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 03690 04 OF 06 121709Z THE CONCERNS OF THE ZIMBABWEAN PEOPLE. "WE HAVE NOT FAILED," MUDENGE INSISTED, BLAMING THE COUNTRY'S ECONOMIC DIFFICULTIES ON FLUCTUATIONS IN WORLD COMMODITY PRICES. "THAT'S WHAT'S KILLING US," HE SAID. KANSTEINER REPLIED THAT HIS OWN MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS WOULD BE DIFFERENT, AND MAINTAINED THAT ZIMBABWE'S ECONOMIC DECLINE HAS BEEN CAUSED PRIMARILY BY GOVERNMENT MISMANAGEMENT. DRC --- ¶16. (C) KANSTEINER ATTRIBUTED PART OF ZIMBABWE'S ECONOMIC DECLINE TO THE GOVERNMENT'S INVOLVEMENT IN THE DRC. "YOUR PEOPLE HAVE PAID A HIGH PRICE FOR THAT MILITARY INVOLVEMENT," KANSTEINER SAID, THROUGH WHICH THE GOZ HAD ESSENTIALLY PLACED SANCTIONS ON ITS OWN PEOPLE. MUDENGE CONTENDED THAT THE GOZ HAD ENTERED THE CONFLICT IN THE DRC AS A WAY TO THANK AFRICA FOR HELPING ZIMBABWEANS DURING THEIR LIBERATION STRUGGLE. KANSTEINER SAID THE GOZ NEEDED TO DO A BETTER JOB OF EXPLAINING THE REASONS FOR ITS DRC INVOLVEMENT TO THE ZIMBABWEAN PEOPLE. IF ZIMBABWEAN TROOPS WITHDRAW, MUDENGE REPLIED, THEN THE GOVERNMENT WOULD COLLAPSE. "THEN WHAT WOULD OUR COMMITMENT THERE HAVE CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ7931 PAGE 01 HARARE 03690 05 OF 06 121710Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 AID-00 CIAE-00 DODE-00 SRPP-00 EB-00 EUR-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 L-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 NSCE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 SSO-00 SS-00 STR-00 TRSE-00 T-00 USIE-00 SNIS-00 NISC-00 PMB-00 PRM-00 DRL-02 G-00 SAS-00 /007W -------------- 4A8A3E 121710Z /68 O 121555Z DEC 01 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0520 INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY AMEMBASSY NAIROBI AMEMBASSY OSLO AMEMBASSY CANBERRA AMEMBASSY STOCKHOLM AMEMBASSY KINGSTON AMEMBASSY ABUJA C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 05 OF 06 HARARE 003690 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER LONDON FOR GURNEY PARIS FOR NEARY NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER E.O. 12958: DECL. 12/12/11 CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 03690 05 OF 06 121710Z TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM PINR ZI SUBJECT: A/S KANSTEINER DELIVERS TOUGH MESSAGE TO ZIMBABWEAN OFFICIALS ACCOMPLISHED?" HE REMINDED KANSTEINER THAT ZIMBABWE WAS IN DRC AT THE REQUEST OF THE KINSHASA GOVERNMENT AND WOULD WITHDRAW AS SOON AS KINSHASA ASKED THEM TO, "LUSAKA OR NO LUSAKA." ¶17. (C) MUDENGE SAID THAT, ALTHOUGH WE MAY HAVE OUR DIFFERENCES ON DOMESTIC DEVELOPMENTS IN ZIMBABWE, THE GOZ WANTS VERY MUCH TO WORK WITH THE UNITED STATES TO ENSURE STABILITY IN THE DRC. THE GOZ WANTED THE USG INVOLVED "IN A BIG WAY," AS IT WAS THE ONLY COUNTRY THAT CAN MAKE A REAL DIFFERENCE THERE. HE SAID THE GOZ REGULARLY INCORPORATES OUR NON-PAPERS AND OTHER INFORMATION WE SHARE INTO THEIR THINKING, AND SAID HE WAS AVAILABLE ANY TIME TO EXCHANGE IDEAS ON THE WAY FORWARD. KANSTEINER REPORTED THAT PRESIDENT BUSH HAD HAD A GOOD MEETING IN NEW YORK WITH PRESIDENT KABILA, AND HAD ENCOURAGED HIM TO PRESS FORWARD ON THE INTERNAL DIALOGUE. MUDENGE SAID HE WAS DISAPPOINTED TO HEAR THAT PRESIDENT MASIRE DID NOT HAVE SUFFICIENT RESOURCES, AND INDICATED THAT A SADC MEETING MIGHT BE CALLED TO ADDRESS THIS ISSUE. KANSTEINER SAID THE USG HAS GIVEN HIM SOME RESOURCES AND HE UNDERSTOOD THAT THE SOUTH AFRICANS MAY HELP OUT AS WELL. "LET'S NOT DUMP THIS IN THE LAP OF THE SOUTH AFRICANS," MUDENGE DECLARED. IF THE UN SECURITY COUNCIL CANNOT COME UP WITH $6 MILLION FOR MASIRE, THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY IS SHOWING A REAL LACK OF COMMITMENT. THAT'S WHY THE UNITED STATES WOULD HELP, REGARDLESS OF WHAT THE UNSC DOES, KANSTEINER SAID. MUDENGE CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 03690 05 OF 06 121710Z REPORTED THAT THE GOZ IS TRYING TO IMPROVE RELATIONS WITH RWANDA AND HAS HAD A NUMBER OF MEETINGS WITH JEAN-PIERRE BEMBA. ASKED HIS IMPRESSIONS OF BEMBA, MUDENGE CHUCKLED AND SAID HE IS A "YOUNG MAN WHO KNOWS WHAT HE WANTS." THE BRITS ARE AGAINST US -------------- ¶18. (C) MUDENGE CRITICIZED THE GOZ'S FAVORITE WHIPPING BOY, THE BRITISH, SAYING THE UK HAS "DESTABILIZED THE LANDSCAPE" BY FUNDING THE OPPOSITION MDC. BY BETTING ON OUR ENEMIES, THEY HAVE MADE THEMSELVES THE GOZ'S ENEMIES. KANSTEINER EMPHASIZED THAT WE COULD NOT CARE LESS WHO WINS THE ELECTION. WE DO CARE HOW THE GAME IS PLAYED, HOWEVER, AND HOW THE TRANSITION IS MANAGED. THERE WON'T BE A TRANSITION, MUDENGE REPLIED, BECAUSE ZANU-PF WILL WIN THE ELECTION. GLOOMY ECONOMIC PICTURE -------------- ¶19. (C) MAKONI PRESENTED A GLOOMY PICTURE OF ZIMBABWE'S MACROECONOMIC SITUATION. HE EXPECTED A SIGNIFICANT DECLINE IN PLANTING OF KEY CROPS: THE NUMBER OF HECTARES OF TOBACCO (ZIMBABWE'S PRIMARY FOREIGN EXCHANGE EARNER) PLANTED IS DOWN 25 PERCENT OVER LAST YEAR, WHILE MAIZE PLANTINGS IN COMMERCIAL FARMING AREAS ARE DOWN 40 PERCENT. HE HAD HOPED THE SHORTFALL IN MAIZE PLANTINGS WOULD BE MADE UP IN COMMUNAL AND RESETTLEMENT AREAS, BUT HE ACKNOWLEDGED THAT THIS WAS STILL AN OPEN QUESTION. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT MAIZE PRODUCTION WOULD FALL SIGNIFICANTLY SHORT OF THE CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 03690 05 OF 06 121710Z ANNUAL CONSUMPTION REQUIREMENT OF 2.2 MILLION TONS. THE IMPOSITION OF PRICE CONTROLS HAD NOT HELPED MATTERS, MAKONI SAID, AS BOTH COMMERCIAL AND SMALL-SCALE MAIZE FARMERS ARE LIKELY HOLDING ONTO THEIR PRODUCT UNTIL THE PRICE IS RIGHT. ¶20. (C) THE FINANCE MINISTER SAID HE WAS WORRIED ABOUT THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF THE FAST TRACK EFFORT, AND HAD URGED HIS COLLEAGUES TO SHOW FLEXIBILITY IN IMPLEMENTING IT. GOZ RHETORIC NOTWITHSTANDING, ONE COULD COUNT THE NUMBER OF FARMERS WHO HAD INHERITED THEIR PROPERTIES ON ONE HAND. MOST COMMERCIAL FARMERS HAD BOUGHT THEIR LAND SINCE INDEPENDENCE IN 1980, AFTER OBTAINING A CERTIFICATE OF NO INTEREST FROM THE CURRENT GOVERNMENT. MAKONI SAID HE WANTED COMMERCIAL FARMERS TO BE ABLE TO REINVEST EARNINGS, NOT BE FORCED INTO DESTITUTION. WHILE THERE CERTAINLY IS AN ISSUE OF HISTORICAL INJUSTICE, THE GOZ NEEDS TO KEEP THAT IN PERSPECTIVE. SOME IN GOVERNMENT WOULD NOT BE SO FRANK, MAKONI ADMITTED, BUT HE WAS THE ONE DEALING WITH THE NUTS AND BOLTS OF THE COUNTRY'S ENORMOUS ECONOMIC DIFFICULTIES. THE MINISTER EXPRESSED SERIOUS CONCERN ABOUT THE EXPOSURE OF ZIMBABWEAN BANKS, MOST OF WHICH HOLD SIGNIFICANT AGRICULTURAL LOAN PORTFOLIOS. CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ7930 PAGE 01 HARARE 03690 06 OF 06 121709Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 AID-00 CIAE-00 DODE-00 SRPP-00 EB-00 EUR-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 L-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 NSCE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 SSO-00 SS-00 STR-00 TRSE-00 T-00 USIE-00 SNIS-00 NISC-00 PMB-00 PRM-00 DRL-02 G-00 SAS-00 /007W -------------- 4A8A36 121709Z /68 O 121555Z DEC 01 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0521 INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY AMEMBASSY NAIROBI AMEMBASSY OSLO AMEMBASSY CANBERRA AMEMBASSY STOCKHOLM AMEMBASSY KINGSTON AMEMBASSY ABUJA C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 06 OF 06 HARARE 003690 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER LONDON FOR GURNEY PARIS FOR NEARY NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER E.O. 12958: DECL. 12/12/11 CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 03690 06 OF 06 121709Z TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM PINR ZI SUBJECT: A/S KANSTEINER DELIVERS TOUGH MESSAGE TO ZIMBABWEAN OFFICIALS COMMENT -------------- ¶21. (C) WE BELIEVE THE THREE MINISTERS -- ALL OF WHOM SIT ON THE RULING PARTY'S SUPREME DECISION-MAKING BODY, THE POLITBURO -- HEARD AND ABSORBED A/S KANSTEINER'S POINTED MESSAGE: THAT GOZ ACTIONS ALONE WOULD DETERMINE WHETHER RESTRICTIONS WOULD BE IMPOSED ON KEY MEMBERS OF THE LEADERSHIP AND THAT THERE WAS STILL TIME TO AVOID SUCH MEASURES. MNANGAGWA'S QUICK ACTION ON THE CIVIL SERVANT/MONITOR ISSUE SUGGESTS THAT THE MESSAGE GOT THROUGH, AS WE SUSPECT HE WAS INSPIRED IN PART BY CONCERN THAT HIS CHILDREN'S STUDIES IN TEXAS MIGHT BE ENDED PREMATURELY. HIS REACTION INDICATES THAT THE THREAT OF RESTRICTIONS MIGHT INDEED BE EFFECTIVE IN ELICITING SOME POSITIVE POLICY CHANGES HERE. ¶22. (C) MUDENGE SEEMED LESS ARROGANT AND MORE DEFENSIVE THAN IN PREVIOUS MEETINGS WITH US, PERHAPS REFLECTING A REALIZATION THAT HIS NORMALLY OVER-THE-TOP AGGRESSIVE STYLE HAS ONLY WORSENED THE GOZ'S ISOLATION, AS REGIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL PRESSURE ON THE MUGABE REGIME GROWS MORE INTENSE. PRESIDENT MBEKI'S RECENT CRITICISMS CLEARLY TOUCHED A RAW NERVE IN THE GOZ LEADERSHIP, JUDGING FROM MUDENGE'S STRONG REACTION, BECAUSE SUCH PUBLIC CANDOR FROM ZIMBABWE'S NEIGHBORS UNDERMINES MUGABE'S ATTEMPTS TO PORTRAY HIMSELF AS A DEFENDER OF BLACK AFRICAN INTERESTS. CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 03690 06 OF 06 121709Z OUR MEETING WITH MAKONI WAS A BREATH OF FRESH AIR. HE IS BRIGHT, POLITICALLY MODERATE, AND WILLING TO ENGAGE IN A GENUINE DIALOGUE ABOUT HOW TO EXTRICATE ZIMBABWE FROM ITS CURRENT MESS. IT IS TOO BAD HE DOESN'T HAVE MORE INFLUENCE WITH THE OLD MAN AND OTHER RULING PARTY HARDLINERS, WHO ARE OFTEN IRRITATED BY MAKONI'S WILLINGNESS TO CALL THINGS AS HE SEES THEM IN PUBLIC. ¶23. (U) A/S KANSTEINER WAS NOT ABLE TO CLEAR THIS CABLE BEFORE HIS DEPARTURE. SULLIVAN CONFIDENTIAL >