MUGABE SAYS ZIMBABWE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION WILL

C O N F I D E N T I A L HARARE 003688 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY PARIS FOR CHARLES NEARY NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/12/11 TAGS: PGOV PINR ZI SUBJECT: MUGABE SAYS ZIMBABWE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION WILL BE IN MARCH AND OBSERVERS WILL BE INVITED CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL OFFICER TODD FAULK FOR REASONS: 1.5 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (U) PRESIDENT MUGABE TOLD VISITING SADC MINISTERS AND A NIGERIAN NGO IN HARARE THAT THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION WILL TAKE PLACE IN MARCH 2002, ACCORDING TO THE GOVERNMENT-CONTROLLED PRINT AND BROADCAST MEDIA. MUGABE DID NOT PROVIDE SPECIFIC DATES, AS THESE WILL BE SET LATER BY THE REGISTRAR-GENERAL. MUGABE ALSO REPORTEDLY STATED THAT REPRESENTATIVES FROM SADC, THE AFRICAN UNION, COMMONWEALTH, ECONOMIC COMMUNITY OF WEST AFRICAN STATES (ECOWAS),AND INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS OF THE EU (BUT NOT THE EU AS A BLOC),WOULD BE INVITED TO OBSERVE THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION. MUGABE'S STATEMENT DID NOT INCLUDE AN INVITATION FOR AMERICAN AND BRITISH OBSERVERS. ACCORDING TO PRESS REPORTS, MUGABE BRIEFED THE SADC MINISTERS ON THE "UNITED STATES SANCTIONS BILL" AND OTHER "ILLEGAL" ACTIONS BY BRITAIN AND THE EU AGAINST ZIMBABWE. "I WILL HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY IN INVITING SOME WHITE MEN HERE. I WOULD RATHER INVITE THE ASIANS OR CARIBBEANS ... OF COURSE THERE ARE SOME GOOD COUNTRIES WITHIN THE [EU] AND THOSE WE SHALL INVITE TO SEND OBSERVERS IN THEIR OWN RIGHT," MUGABE IS QUOTED AS SAYING. NEXT STEPS IN ELECTORAL PROCESS -------------- ¶2. (C) MUGABE'S PRONOUNCEMENT OF A MARCH ELECTION JUST DAYS BEFORE THE ANNUAL ZANU-PF CONFERENCE IS DUE TO BEGIN SIGNALS HIS INTENTION TO USE THE ANNUAL GATHERING CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 03688 121537Z AS THE JUMPING OFF POINT OF HIS OFFICIAL CANDIDACY. SPECIFIC DATES FOR THE ELECTION ARE LIKELY TO BE ANNOUNCED SOON AFTER THE CONFERENCE, BUT MUST BE GAZETTED BY THE REGISTRAR-GENERAL BETWEEN JANUARY 2 AND 10, 2002, ACCORDING TO THE ELECTORAL ACT. AT THE SAME TIME, THE REGISTRAR-GENERAL CALLS FOR PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATIONS TO BE SUBMITTED TO A NOMINATION COURT, WHICH CAN RECEIVE THEM UNTIL JANUARY 31. THE LAST POLLING DAY PERMITTED UNDER THE ELECTORAL ACT IS MARCH 17, ACCORDING TO THE LEGAL RESOURCES FOUNDATION, A WELL-RESPECTED ZIMBABWEAN NGO SPECIALIZING IN LEGAL ISSUES. THERE MUST BE AT LEAST A TWO-WEEK PERIOD BETWEEN THE POLLING DAYS AND THE END OF THE PRESIDENT'S TERM, WHICH OCCURS ON MARCH 31. COMMENT -------------- ¶3. (C) MUGABE'S PRONOUNCEMENT OF A MARCH ELECTION COMES AS NO GREAT SURPRISE. MUGABE APPEARS INTENT ON STICKING TO THE ELECTION SCHEDULE SPELLED OUT IN THE CONSTITUTION AND ELECTORAL ACT IN AN ATTEMPT TO SHOW CRITICS HE IS A "TRUE DEMOCRAT." BY OUR RECKONING, THE ELECTION IS LIKELY TO FALL ON THE WEEKEND OF MARCH 16-17, WHICH WOULD GIVE MUGABE THE MAXIMUM TIME TO ORGANIZE HIS SUPPORTERS AND PLAN FOR ELECTORAL CONTINGENCIES. ZIMBABWE'S RAINY SEASON SHOULD BE WANING BY THE MIDDLE OF MARCH, WHICH REDUCES THE CHANCES THAT FLOODS AND WASHED-OUT BRIDGES COULD KEEP MUGABE'S PREDOMINANTLY RURAL SUPPORTERS AWAY FROM THE POLLING BOOTHS. THE TIMING MAY ALSO DEPEND ON LOOMING FOOD SHORTAGES. THE CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 03688 121537Z PERIOD OF GREATEST CONCERN NOW APPEARS TO BE MARCH THROUGH MAY. WE NOTE FOR THE RECORD THAT THE U.S. DID NOT NUMBER AMONG THOSE COUNTRIES THAT WILL BE INVITED TO SEND ELECTION OBSERVERS. END COMMENT. SULLIVAN CONFIDENTIAL >