A/S KANSTEINER MEETS WITH CROSS SECTION OF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 HARARE 003672 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY PARIS FOR CHARLES NEARY NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/11/11 TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ECON PINS ZI SUBJECT: A/S KANSTEINER MEETS WITH CROSS SECTION OF BULAWAYO SOCIETY REF: HARARE 3643 CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL OFFICER TODD FAULK FOR REASONS: 1.5 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: ON DECEMBER 9, A/S KANSTEINER MET WITH A WIDE CROSS-SECTION OF BULAWAYO SOCIETY TO DISCUSS THE RECENT POLITICAL VIOLENCE IN THAT CITY, ONGOING GOVERNMENT OF ZIMBABWE (GOZ) ATTEMPTS TO SUBVERT THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, THE DETERIORATING ECONOMY AND LOOMING FOOD SHORTAGES, PASSAGE OF THE ZIMBABWE DEMOCRACY AND ECONOMIC RECOVERY ACT (ZDERA),AND WHAT ROLE THE U.S. MIGHT PLAY IN HELPING ZIMBABWE OUT OF ITS CURRENT CRISIS. OVERALL, OUR INTERLOCUTORS PAINTED BULAWAYO, AND THE ENTIRE MATABELELAND REGION, AS AN AREA UNDER SIEGE BY THE GOZ, AND ONE LIVING IN FEAR OF MORE MUGABE-LED VIOLENCE AND REPRESSION. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) ON DECEMBER 9, A/S KANSTEINER AND AMBASSADOR SULLIVAN, ALONG WITH SPECIAL ASSISTANT THOMAS WOODS AND POLOFF (NOTETAKER),MET WITH A WIDE CROSS-SECTION OF CIVIL SOCIETY, OPPOSITION AND LOCAL OFFICIALS IN BULAWAYO. IN SEPARATE MEETINGS, KANSTEINER MET: SHARI EPPEL, DIRECTOR OF AMANI TRUST/BULAWAYO, A WELL- RESPECTED HUMAN RIGHTS ORGANIZATION; ERIC BLOCH, A PROMINENT ECONOMIST AND COLUMNIST; MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE VICE-PRESIDENT GIBSON SIBANDA, MDC SECRETARY-GENERAL WELSHMAN NCUBE, AND MDC MP FOR SIPDIS BULAWAYO SOUTH DAVID COLTART; HUMAN RIGHTS ACTIVIST AND "DAILY NEWS" PART-OWNER JUDITH TODD AND MICHAEL NDUBIWA, THE CHAIRMAN OF THE NATIONAL AIDS COUNCIL; ARCHBISHOP PIUS NCUBE; AND BULAWAYO MAYOR JAPHET NDABENI-NCUBE. CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 03672 01 OF 05 111246Z BULAWAYO UNDER SIEGE -------------- ¶3. (C) NEARLY ALL THOSE A/S KANSTEINER MET WITH HAD A TALE TO TELL RELATED TO THE POLITICAL VIOLENCE THAT WRACKED BULAWAYO IN MID-NOVEMBER. MAYOR NDEBENI-NCUBE, ELECTED ON THE MDC TICKET IN SEPTEMBER, RECOUNTED HIS OWN CLOSE CALL WITH ANGRY DEMONSTRATORS ON NOVEMBER 16. SIKHANYISO NDLOVU AND DUMISO DABENGWA -- ZANU-PF POLITBURO MEMBERS WHOSE POLITICAL STARS ARE WANING, THE MAYOR STATED -- STARTED THE TROUBLE BY WHIPPING UP EMOTIONS AT A ZANU-PF YOUTH RALLY; THE MAJORITY OF THE YOUTH WERE SHIPPED IN BY TRAIN THE NIGHT BEFORE. THE GROUP OF SEVERAL HUNDRED THEN PROCEEDED TO TEAR THROUGH THE STREETS, ATTACKING BYSTANDERS AND LOOTING VENDORS OF THEIR WARES. FIFTEEN MINUTES BEFORE THEY ARRIVED AT HIS OFFICE AT CITY HALL, HE RECEIVED A PHONE CALL FROM AN MDC OPERATIVE WARNING OF THE IMPENDING DANGER. TAKING HIS REVOLVER WITH HIM, HE WAS WHISKED TO A DARK OFFICE IN A DIFFERENT PART OF THE BUILDING AND LOCKED INSIDE, THE MAYOR SAID. WHEN THE DEMONSTATORS ARRIVED, A GROUP OF EIGHT WAR VETERANS LED BY THEIR NATIONAL SECRETARY FOR PROJECTS ANDREW NDLOVU, SOMEHOW GOT INSIDE CITY HALL AND FORCED A SECURITY GUARD TO TAKE THEM TO THE MAYOR'S OFFICE. THEY RANSACKED THE OFFICE, TORE UP PAPERS, THREW FILES OUT THE WINDOW, AND STOLE HIS BRIEFCASE. THEY LEFT TWO LOGS ON HIS DESK, AN APPARENT WARNING THAT THEY WOULD BEAT HIM WITH THE CLUBS IF HE RETURNED, NDABENI-NCUBE STATED. THE DEMONSTRATORS, ESCORTED BY RIOT POLICE, THEN LEFT TO BURN DOWN THE MDC'S BULAWAYO CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 03672 01 OF 05 111246Z HEADQUARTERS. SINCE THAT DAY, HE HAS RECEIVED THREATENING PHONE CALLS, AND STRANGE VEHICLES DRIVE SLOWLY BY HIS HOME AT NIGHT. ACCORDING TO SHARI EPPEL, THE VIOLENCE AND INTIMIDATION OF THE LAST FEW WEEKS IN BULAWAYO HAS LEFT THE MDC WITHOUT ANY ADMINISTRATIVE STRUCTURE IN THE CITY. ALTHOUGH GRASS-ROOTS EFFORTS CONTINUE, MOST OFFICIALS HAVE FLED OR ARE IN HIDING, SHE CLAIMED. ¶4. (C) THE POLITICAL VIOLENCE OF NOVEMBER 16 HAD A DEEP IMPACT ON THE RESIDENTS OF THIS NORMALLY QUIET CITY. THE COMMON DENOMINATOR IN NEARLY EVERY MEETING WITH A/S KANSTEINER WAS AN EXPRESSION OF FEAR. SHARI EPPEL, A LONG-TIME RESIDENT OF THE CITY, COMPARED THE ATMOSPHERE TO THE TIME OF THE "GUKURAHUNDI" MASSACRES OF THE MID- 1980S. SHE COMPARED THE CASE OF A ZANU SENATOR FROM BEITBRIDGE, MURDERED IN 1984 BY HIS OWN PARTY, TO THE RECENT CASE OF CAIN NKALA, THE WAR VETERANS LEADER MOST ZIMBABWEANS BELIEVE WAS KILLED BY STATE AGENTS. SHE DESCRIBED PRESIDENT MUGABE'S NATIONAL HERO SPEECH AT NKALA'S FUNERAL AS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THAT OF THE SENATOR'S IN 1984. THE NDEBELE ARE VERY AFRAID THAT MUGABE IS SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER "GUKURAHUNDI"- TYPE POGROM, EPPEL STATED. HER ORGANIZATION, AMANI CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ3094 PAGE 01 HARARE 03672 02 OF 05 111247Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 AID-00 CIAE-00 CTME-00 DODE-00 SRPP-00 EB-00 EXIM-01 E-00 VC-00 FRB-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 ITC-01 L-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 NSCE-00 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 SSO-00 SS-00 STR-00 TRSE-00 T-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DRL-02 G-00 SAS-00 /008W -------------- 49CDD0 111248Z /48 O 110949Z DEC 01 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0496 INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY AMEMBASSY NAIROBI C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 05 HARARE 003672 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY PARIS FOR CHARLES NEARY NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/11/11 TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ECON PINS ZI SUBJECT: A/S KANSTEINER MEETS WITH CROSS SECTION OF BULAWAYO SOCIETY TRUST/BULAWAYO, IS CURRENTLY FOCUSED ON EXHUMING THE CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 03672 02 OF 05 111247Z BODIES OF THE THOUSANDS KILLED BY FIFTH BRIGADE TROOPS IN THE 1980S AND TRAINING AN ARGENTINE GROUP CURRENTLY IN COUNTRY IN FORENSICS. OF THE 4,000 SO FAR EXHUMED FROM MASS GRAVES AND PROPERLY REBURIED, NEARLY ALL WERE SHOT AT CLOSE RANGE. SHE CONSERVATIVELY ESTIMATES THAT 10,000 CIVILIANS DIED IN THE GOVERNMENT'S PACIFICATION CAMPAIGN, AND THE NUMBER COULD BE AS HIGH AS 20,000. EPPEL SAID THE EXHUMATION PROGRAM IS DESIGNED TO SEEK JUSTICE FOR THE VICTIMS OF THE ATROCITIES, AND THAT THERE CAN BE NO RECONCILIATION PROCESS WITHOUT DIRECT PERSONAL ACCOUNTABILITY FOR THOSE RESPONSIBLE, I.E., SENIOR GOZ OFFICIALS. ¶5. (C) BOTH EPPEL AND MDC MP DAVID COLTART APPEALED TO A/S KANSTEINER TO URGENTLY PRESS THE GOZ TO RELEASE MDC TREASURER FLETCHER DULINI-NCUBE, WHO WAS DENIED BAIL IN A DECEMBER 7 HIGH COURT RULING. DULINI-NCUBE, WHO IS 61 AND SUFFERS FROM DIABETES AND HYPERTENSION, HAS BEEN IN JAIL FOR THREE WEEKS ON CHARGES OF CONSPIRACY TO MURDER IN THE CAIN NKALA CASE. COLTART SAID THE CHARGES ARE A COMPLETE FABRICATION AND ARE BASED SOLELY ON THE CONFESSIONS OF TWO YOUNG MEN, WHO LATER RECANTED THEIR STORIES AS COERCED UNDER TORTURE. DULINI-NCUBE'S HEALTH IS DECLINING RAPIDLY, AND HE HAS ALREADY LOST SIGHT IN ONE EYE. THE MDC IS GOING TO FILE AN APPEAL TO THE SUPREME COURT ON DECEMBER 10, BUT IT MAY NOT HEAR THE CASE BEFORE ITS CHRISTMAS ADJOURNMENT. KANSTEINER SAID WE WOULD MAKE THE APPEAL BASED ON HUMANITARIAN GROUNDS TO GOZ OFFICIALS HE PLANS TO MEET IN HARARE. (NOTE: THE ASSISTANT SECRETARY LATER RAISED DULINI-NCUBE'S CASE WITH SPEAKER OF PARLIAMENT -- AND ZANU-PF SECRETARY OF CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 03672 02 OF 05 111247Z ADMINISTRATION -- EMMERSON MNANGAGWA. THAT CONVERSATION IS REPORTED SEPTEL. END NOTE.) MDC URGING RESTRAINT IN ITS RESPONSE -------------- ¶6. (C) MDC VICE-PRESIDENT GIBSON SIBANDA SAID THE GOZ IS DOING ITS UTMOST TO PAINT THE OPPOSITION PARTY AS VIOLENT. BLAMING IT FOR THE CAIN NKALA MURDER AND ARRESTING DOZENS OF MDC OFFICIALS WAS JUST ONE STEP. THE GOZ ALSO ACCUSES THE MDC OF OPERATING MILITARY TRAINING CAMPS IN BOTSWANA, ZAMBIA AND MOZAMBIQUE, WHICH SIBANDA SUGGESTED IS JUST UTTER NONSENSE AND A SIGN OF GROWING DESPERATION ON THE PART OF MUGABE. ASKED WHETHER THE MDC HAS EVER PROVIDED ANY KIND OF MILITARY TRAINING TO ITS MEMBERS, COLTART REPLIED THAT IT HAS ONLY TRAINED ABOUT 10 OR 12 BODYGUARDS IN DEFENSIVE TACTICS TO PROTECT THE PARTY LEADERSHIP. SIBANDA ADDED THAT IT WOULD BE SUICIDAL FOR THE MDC TO TRY TO FIGHT THE GOZ IN AN ARMED STRUGGLE. MAYOR NDABENI-NCUBE TOLD THE ASSISTANT SECRETARY THAT MDC YOUTH WHO ORGANIZE THEMSELVES TO DEFEND AGAINST ZANU-PF BRUTES AND WAR VETS, SUCH AS THOSE THAT BURNED SIKHANYISO NDLOVU'S COLLEGE IN BULAWAYO, ARE TOLD TO AVOID ARMED POLICE AND SOLDIERS. KANSTEINER ASKED THE MAYOR WHETHER THE MDC STILL HAS CONTROL OF THE YOUTH. THE MAYOR REPLIED THAT IT IS DIFFICULT TO CONTROL THEM DESPITE THE ORGANIZED STRUCTURES IN PLACE. THE YOUTH DON'T INSTIGATE VIOLENCE, BUT ACT PRIMARILY IN DEFENSE, BY PATROLLING NEIGHBORHOODS AT NIGHT, FOR EXAMPLE. HOWEVER, IF THE MDC YOUTH HAD NOT ACTED AGAINST THE ZANU-PF MOBS ON CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 03672 02 OF 05 111247Z NOVEMBER 16, HE IS CERTAIN MUCH MORE DAMAGE WOULD HAVE BEFALLEN THE CITY, THE MAYOR STATED. ELECTORAL IMPEDIMENTS INCREASING FOR MDC -------------- ¶7. (C) A/S KANSTEINER ASKED THE MDC OFFICIALS IF THE MDC INTENDS TO PARTICIPATE IN THE EARLY 2002 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, EVEN IF THE ELECTORAL FIELD IS TILTED AGAINST THEM. VICE-PRESIDENT SIBANDA SAID THE MDC NATIONAL EXECUTIVE IS GOING TO MEET TO CONSIDER THE ISSUE, BUT IN ALL LIKELIHOOD, THE PARTY WOULD PARTICIPATE. "THE MDC IS THE LAST HOPE FOR MANY PEOPLE," HE OPINED, "AND WE WOULD BE LYNCHED IF MORGAN WITHDREW FROM THE RACE." NONETHELESS, WE RECOGNIZE THAT "THE ODDS ARE MOUNTING AGAINST US." NEW PROPOSED LEGISLATION, MAINLY AMENDMENTS TO THE ELECTORAL ACT, THE PUBLIC ORDER AND SECURITY BILL, AND THE ACCESS TO INFORMATION BILL (REFTEL) WILL HINDER THE MDC'S CAMPAIGN EFFORT. THE ELECTORAL ACT AMENDMENTS, FOR EXAMPLE, WOULD PROHIBIT THE PUTTING UP OF CAMPAIGN POSTERS, WELSHMAN NCUBE POINTED OUT. THE VOTER ROLLS ARE ALSO BEING DELIBERATELY MANIPULATED IN MATABELELAND. THE NDEBELE NAMES OF NEW VOTER REGISTRANTS ARE BEING CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ3096 PAGE 01 HARARE 03672 03 OF 05 111248Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 AID-00 CIAE-00 CTME-00 DODE-00 SRPP-00 EB-00 EXIM-01 E-00 VC-00 FRB-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 ITC-01 L-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 NSCE-00 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 SSO-00 SS-00 STR-00 TRSE-00 T-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DRL-02 G-00 SAS-00 /008W -------------- 49CDE7 111248Z /48 O 110949Z DEC 01 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0497 INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY AMEMBASSY NAIROBI C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 05 HARARE 003672 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY PARIS FOR CHARLES NEARY NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/11/11 TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ECON PINS ZI SUBJECT: A/S KANSTEINER MEETS WITH CROSS SECTION OF BULAWAYO SOCIETY DELIBERATELY MISSPELLED OR CHANGED INTO SHONA CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 03672 03 OF 05 111248Z EQUIVALENTS WITHOUT THE REGISTRANT'S KNOWLEDGE, AND DIGITS ARE BEING DROPPED FROM NATIONAL ID NUMBERS, WHICH WILL MAKE IT NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE FOR THE VOTERS' REGISTRATION TO BE LOCATED WHEN THEY GO TO VOTE, ACCORDING TO NCUBE. COLTART ADDED THAT STUDENTS REGISTERING IN THE CITIES ARE BEING TURNED AWAY IN DROVES BECAUSE OF A LACK OF NUMEROUS DOCUMENTS PROVING RESIDENCY. ABOUT 600,000 POTENTIAL FIRST-TIME VOTERS COULD BE DISENFRANCHISED FROM THE VOTE AS RESULT, HE SAID. THE MDC PLANS TO FILE A CASE WITH THE SUPREME COURT ON DECEMBER 10 TO CHALLENGE THE GOZ'S INTENTION TO REQUIRE ALL VOTERS TO VOTE IN THEIR CONSTITUENCY; THE CONSTITUTION PROVIDES FOR A COMMON VOTER ROLL THAT SHOULD PERMIT A VOTER TO CAST A BALLOT ANYWHERE IN THE COUNTRY, NCUBE STATED. ¶8. (C) MAYOR NDABENI-NCUBE WAS EQUIVOCAL ABOUT THE MDC'S CHANCES IN THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, SAYING THAT THE "ARITHMETIC" WAS ON THE MDC'S SIDE, BUT THE GOZ'S MANIPULATION OF THE VOTERS' ROLL COULD TIP THE BALANCE IN MUGABE'S FAVOR. MATABELELAND, MANICALAND, AND THE URBAN AREAS ARE WRITE-OFFS FOR ZANU-PF AS THE MDC WILL WIN 90 PERCENT OF THESE AREAS, HE PREDICTED. TSVANGIRAI WILL WIN 70 PERCENT OF MIDLANDS, AND 50 PERCENT OF MASVINGO, WHERE HE WILL GET A BOOST FROM THE NON- CAMPAIGNING OF THE ZVOBGO ZANU-PF FACTION. MASHONALAND WILL GARNER FEWER THAN 40 PERCENT OF THE VOTES FOR THE OPPOSITION LEADER. THESE NUMBERS WOULD PUT TSVANGIRAI IN THE WIN COLUMN WERE IT NOT FOR THE GOZ'S TILTING OF THE ELECTORAL PROCESS IN MUGABE'S FAVOR, THE MAYOR OFFERED. CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 03672 03 OF 05 111248Z ECONOMY SHRINKS AS FOOD SHORTAGES GROW -------------- ¶9. (C) ONE OF THE KEY FACTORS IN MUGABE'S DECLINING POPULARITY HAS BEEN THE RAPIDLY DETERIORATING ECONOMY AND THE COUNTRY'S FOOD SECURITY ALONG WITH IT, ACCORDING TO ERIC BLOCH, A WIDELY RESPECTED ECONOMIST AND COLUMNIST BASED IN BULAWAYO. A LOT OF FARMERS ARE WAITING TO SEE IF THE GOZ CARRIES OUT ITS STATED INTENTION TO TAKE OVER NEARLY ALL THE COUNTRY'S COMMERCIAL FARMS. THE REAPING OF TOBACCO IS DUE TO BEGIN IN MID-DECEMBER, BUT FARMERS MAY DECIDE NOT TO IF THERE IS NO EXPECTATION OF KEEPING THEIR FARMS, WHICH WILL HAVE MAJOR IMPLICATIONS FOR THE COUNTRY'S FOREX FUTURE. THERE IS CURRENTLY ONLY US$30 MILLION PER MONTH COMING INTO ZIMBABWE, AND NO MORE THAN US$50 TO 60 MILLION PER MONTH MAY BE EXPECTED IN APRIL WHEN THE TOBACCO SALES BEGIN (US$100 MILLION/MONTH IS NORMAL). ¶10. (C) BLOCH SAID IN JUNE HE ACCOMPANIED FINANCE MINISTER SIMBA MAKONI TO AN INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE WHERE MAKONI STATED THAT LITTLE CAN BE DONE TO SAVE THE ZIMBABWEAN ECONOMY UNLESS THREE THINGS HAPPEN: 1) LAW AND ORDER IS RESTORED, I.E. SQUATTERS ARE REMOVED FROM FARMS, 2) THE GOZ "STOPS CHANGING ITS POLICIES AS OFTEN AS WE CHANGE OUR UNDERWEAR," AND 3) EVERY FARMER IS ABLE TO PLANT AND HARVEST HIS CROP IN SECURITY. ABSENT THAT, MAKONI IS SPENDING MONEY HE DOES NOT HAVE TO KEEP THE ECONOMY AFLOAT. GOZ DEBT HAS SOARED TO BETWEEN 15 AND 19 PERCENT OF GDP. TO RAISE MORE CAPITAL, HE WILL HAVE CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 03672 03 OF 05 111248Z TO GO AFTER INSURANCE COMPANIES AND PENSION FUNDS BY INCREASING THEIR AMOUNT OF PROSCRIBED ASSETS. CURRENTLY, 45 PERCENT OF THEIR ASSETS ARE REQUIRED TO BE IN GOVERNMENT T-BILLS. ¶11. (C) ON THE FOOD SECURITY FRONT, ZIMBABWE WILL REQUIRE 500 MILLION TONS OF MAIZE BETWEEN NOW AND EARLY 2003 TO COVER THE PREDICTED SHORTFALLS OF DOMESTIC PRODUCTION, BLOCH PREDICTED; PLANTINGS NOW IN THE COMMERCIAL AREAS ARE ONLY 60 PERCENT OF WHAT THEY WERE LAST YEAR. NEXT YEAR, THERE WILL BE A GAP IN MAIZE AVAILABILITY BETWEEN MARCH AND MAY. WHOEVER WINS THE ELECTION IS GOING TO HAVE A TERRIBLE PROBLEM ON HIS HANDS, BLOCH OPINED. IT'S NOT TOO LATE FOR MUGABE TO TURN THINGS AROUND IF HE STARTS SAYING, AND DOING, THE RIGHT THINGS NOW, THE ECONOMIST SUGGESTED. PRINCIPALLY, HE MUST: 1) GO BACK TO A MARKET ECONOMY BY ABANDONING PRICE AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE CONTROLS, 2) CLEAR OUT THE FARM SQUATTERS AND ARREST THE PERPETRATORS OF VIOLENCE, AND 3) CUT BACK ON GOVERNMENT SPENDING -- A CUTBACK IN THE BUDGET OF THE PRESIDENT'S OFFICE WOULD BE A SIGN OF COMMITMENT. IF THESE THINGS HAPPENED, THE ZIMBABWEAN ECONOMY COULD START TO TURN AROUND FAIRLY QUICKLY, ESPECIALLY IN THE MANUFACTURING EXPORT SECTOR. SOME CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ3144 PAGE 01 HARARE 03672 04 OF 05 111257Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 AID-00 CIAE-00 CTME-00 DODE-00 SRPP-00 EB-00 EXIM-01 E-00 VC-00 FRB-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 ITC-01 L-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 NSCE-00 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 SSO-00 SS-00 STR-00 TRSE-00 T-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DRL-02 G-00 SAS-00 /008W -------------- 49CF50 111257Z /48 O 110949Z DEC 01 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0498 INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY AMEMBASSY NAIROBI C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 04 OF 05 HARARE 003672 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY PARIS FOR CHARLES NEARY NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/11/11 TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ECON PINS ZI SUBJECT: A/S KANSTEINER MEETS WITH CROSS SECTION OF BULAWAYO SOCIETY FIRMS COULD START EXPORTING AGAIN IN AS LITTLE AS A FEW CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 03672 04 OF 05 111257Z WEEKS. (COMMENT: ALTHOUGH THE MANUFACTURING EXPORT SECTOR MAY TURN AROUND QUICKLY, THE MAINSTAY OF THE ZIMBABWEAN ECONOMY REMAINS COMMERCIAL AGRICULTURE, AND IT WILL LIKELY TAKE YEARS FOR IT TO RECOVER. END COMMENT.) ARCHBISHOP: DO NOT EXPECT A REVOLUTION -------------- ¶12. (C) THE PEOPLE OF ZIMBABWE, AND MATABELELAND IN PARTICULAR, ARE SO SCARED, THEY WILL NOT RISE UP AGAINST THE GOVERNMENT, EVEN IF MUGABE WINS RE-ELECTION, ARCHBISHOP PIUS NCUBE TOLD THE ASSISTANT SECRETARY. (NOTE: NCUBE, WHO HIMSELF LEFT ZIMBABWE LAST YEAR BECAUSE OF DEATH THREATS, STOOD WITH THE A/S DELEGATION AS IT ARRIVED AND BRIEFLY KEPT THEM OUTSIDE HIS OFFICE BUILDING, APPARENTLY SO THAT SUSPECTED CIO AGENTS IN THE CATHEDRAL COMPOUND COULD SEE THAT HE WAS MEETING WITH AMERICAN OFFICIALS. END NOTE.) THE ARCHBISHOP PREDICTED THAT THE VIOLENCE WILL INTENSIFY BEFORE THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, WHICH WILL NOT BE FREE AND FAIR. EVEN THOUGH EDUCATED AND UNEDUCATED ZIMBABWEANS ALIKE ARE VERY UNHAPPY, THEY WILL NOT RISE UP AGAINST THE GOZ UNLESS THEY ARE LED. MDC PRESIDENT MORGAN TSVANGIRAI IS TOO WEAK TO LEAD THEM, AS HE HIMSELF IS INTIMIDATED BY THE GOZ, NCUBE OPINED. NCUBE WOULD BE EQUALLY OPPOSED TO THE MDC IF IT PROVED TO BE JUST AS CORRUPT AS ZANU- PF, HE ADDED. WHEN ASKED IF THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MUGABE TO BACK OUT OF THE ELECTION, THE ARCHBISHOP SAID "NO;" ONCE HIS PARTY WINS RE-ELECTION, HOWEVER, MUGABE WILL HAND OVER POWER TO ANOTHER PARTY STALWART. CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 03672 04 OF 05 111257Z ZIMBABWE DEMOCRACY ACT -------------- ¶13. (C) MANY OF OUR INTERLOCUTORS EXPRESSED THANKS TO A/S KANSTEINER AND THE USG FOR PASSING THE ZIMBABWE DEMOCRACY AND ECONOMIC RECOVERY ACT (ZDERA). IN AN OPEN DISCUSSION WITH HUMAN RIGHTS ACTIVIST JUDITH TODD AND AIDS NATIONAL COUNCIL CHAIRMAN MIKE NDUBIWA (A LONG-TIME ZANU-PF MEMBER WHO WAS AS ANTI-ZANU AS ANYONE WE MET), KANSTEINER EXPLAINED THE PROVISIONS OF THE ZDERA AND THAT IT IS UP TO THE ADMINISTRATION TO IMPLEMENT ANY SANCTIONS. TODD ARGUED THAT IT WOULD BE IMPORTANT TO THREATEN SANCTIONS JUST BEFORE THE ZANU-PF CONFERENCE BEGINS DECEMBER 14 AND BEFORE THE AMENDMENTS TO THE ELECTORAL ACT ARE PASSED IN PARLIAMENT (TODD REPORTED THAT THE BILL IS DUE TO BE INTRODUCED DECEMBER 18). AFTER THESE DATES, SHE SAID, IT WOULD BE TOO LATE TO INFLUENCE ANY POSSIBLE CHANGES IN THE GOZ'S COURSE OF ACTION. AMBASSADOR SULLIVAN POINTED OUT THAT THERE IS AN ARGUMENT AGAINST USING THE SANCTIONS "STICK" NOW -- WE WON'T HAVE ANY OTHERS ONCE IT IS USED, AND IT COULD FORCE MUGABE INTO A CORNER WITH NO ESCAPE ROUTES. NDUBIWA MAINTAINED THAT "PULLING THE TRIGGER" OF SANCTIONS SHOULD BE A PROCESS RATHER THAN AN EVENT. CERTAINLY, THREATS OF USING SANCTIONS WOULD HAVE TO BE MADE, BUT THEIR ULTIMATE USE SHOULD NOT BE LINKED TO ANY ONE ACTION, SUCH AS PASSAGE OF THE ELECTORAL ACT AMENDMENTS. HOW CAN WE BEST HELP ZIMBABWE? CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 03672 04 OF 05 111257Z -------------- ¶14. (C) WHEN ASKED HOW THE U.S. COULD HELP ZIMBABWE AT THIS POINT, MDC VICE-PRESIDENT SIBANDA STATED THAT THE MOST IMPORTANT THING WE COULD DO IS TELL PRESIDENT MUGABE IN NO UNCERTAIN TERMS THAT WE WOULD NOT RECOGNIZE THE ELECTION OUTCOME IF THE ELECTION WAS NOT FREE AND FAIR. MUGABE WANTS THIS RECOGNITION MORE THAN ANYTHING, SIBANDA SAID. USING OUR INFLUENCE WITH THE REGIONAL STATES WOULD HELP, BUT AMONG THE SADC STATES, ONLY SOUTH AFRICA CAN APPLY SUFFICIENT PRESSURE ON MUGABE TO CHANGE HIS WAYS. SHARI EPPEL OF AMANI TRUST OPINED THAT APPLYING PRESSURE TO THE SADC STATES TO TAKE A STAND AGAINST MUGABE IS KEY TO CHANGING HIS BEHAVIOR. SIBANDA APPEALED FOR HELP WITH MDC FINANCES, WHICH HE SAID WERE BEING DRAINED BY GOZ ACTIONS, SUCH AS THE TORCHING OF ITS BULAWAYO OFFICES AND LEGAL CASES. THE MDC IS SPENDING BETWEEN ZIM$5 MILLION AND $7 MILLION (US$16,000 AND $23,000) ON LEGAL FEES; IT HAS SO FAR SPENT ZIM$1.3 MILLION (US$4,000) ON FLETCHER DULINI-NCUBE'S CASE ALONE. THEY SAID IT WOULD HELP IF THE U.S. COULD ASSIST IN FINDING NGOS THAT COULD PROVIDE LEGAL ASSISTANCE OR FUNDS FOR LEGAL EXPENSES. CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ3091 PAGE 01 HARARE 03672 05 OF 05 111247Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 AID-00 CIAE-00 CTME-00 DODE-00 SRPP-00 EB-00 EXIM-01 E-00 VC-00 FRB-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 ITC-01 L-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 NSCE-00 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 SSO-00 SS-00 STR-00 TRSE-00 T-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DRL-02 G-00 SAS-00 /008W -------------- 49CDC1 111247Z /48 O 110949Z DEC 01 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0499 INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY AMEMBASSY NAIROBI C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 05 OF 05 HARARE 003672 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY PARIS FOR CHARLES NEARY NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/11/11 TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ECON PINS ZI SUBJECT: A/S KANSTEINER MEETS WITH CROSS SECTION OF BULAWAYO SOCIETY ¶15. (U) THE A/S KANSTEINER DELEGATION CLEARED THIS CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 03672 05 OF 05 111247Z CABLE. SULLIVAN CONFIDENTIAL >