AMBASSADOR, ZANU-PF SECRETARY OF INFORMATION NATHAN SHAMUYARIRA DISCUSS ZDERA, POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 003527 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER BRUSSELS ALSO FOR USEU LONDON FOR GURNEY PARIS FOR NEARY NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER E.O. 12958: DECL. 11/23/11 TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM PINR SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR, ZANU-PF SECRETARY OF INFORMATION NATHAN SHAMUYARIRA DISCUSS ZDERA, POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS REF: A) HARARE 3463 B) HARARE 3400 CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF MATT HARRINGTON. REASONS: 1.5 (B) AND (D). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) IN A NOVEMBER 20 MEETING WITH THE AMBASSADOR, SENIOR ZANU- PF OFFICIAL NATHAN SHAMUYARIRA SAID THE GOZ WANTS TO MAINTAIN GOOD RELATIONS WITH THE USG, AND HE URGED THAT THE ZIMBABWE DEMOCRACY AND RECOVERY ACT (ZDERA),CURRENTLY BEFORE THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES, BE TAKEN "OFF THE AGENDA." THE AMBASSADOR SAID CONCRETE IMPROVEMENTS ON OUR ISSUES OF CONCERN -- RESTORATION OF THE RULE OF LAW, A REDUCTION IN POLITICAL VIOLENCE, FREE AND FAIR ELECTIONS -- ARE ESSENTIAL PRECURSORS TO AN IMPROVED RELATIONSHIP WITH US. SHAMUYARIRA INSISTED THAT INTERNATIONAL ELECTION OBSERVERS WILL BE INVITED AFTER THE ELECTION DATES ARE ANNOUNCED, BUT HE STRESSED THAT "LONG-HAIRED SCANDINAVIANS" TRYING TO TEACH US ABOUT DEMOCRACY WOULD NOT BE PERMITTED TO PARTICIPATE. HE CLAIMED THE RULING PARTY IS URGING ITS SUPPORTERS TO CONDUCT A PEACEFUL CAMPAIGN, BUT LAMENTED THAT THEY MIGHT BE DIFFICULT TO CONTROL IN THE FACE OF PROVOCATIONS FROM THE OPPOSITION MDC. END SUMMARY. ZDERA -------------- CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 03527 01 OF 03 231104Z ¶2. (C) IN A NOVEMBER 20 CONVERSATION WITH THE AMBASSADOR, ZANU-PF ELDER STATESMAN -- AND THE RULING PARTY'S SECRETARY FOR INFORMATION -- NATHAN SHAMUYARIRA FIRST RAISED THE ZIMBABWE DEMOCRACY AND ECONOMIC RECOVERY ACT (ZDERA),CURRENTLY BEFORE THE U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES. SHAMUYARIRA SAID THE GOVERNMENT WANTED TO "GET ZDERA OFF THE AGENDA" AND HE THOUGHT PRESIDENT MUGABE MIGHT SOON WRITE TO PRESIDENT BUSH EXPRESSING HIS CONCERNS ABOUT THIS PENDING LEGISLATION. THE AMBASSADOR NOTED THAT ZDERA WAS AS MUCH AN INCENTIVES BILL AS A SANCTIONS BILL, AND THAT IT RECOMMENDS THE IMPOSITION OF TARGETED PERSONAL SANCTIONS IN THE ABSENCE OF PROGRESS ON RULE OF LAW AND HUMAN RIGHTS CONCERNS, AND FREE AND FAIR ELECTIONS. THE AMBASSADOR SAID PRESIDENT MUGABE WAS WELCOME TO SEND A LETTER BUT HE EMPHASIZED THAT CONCRETE ACTIONS ADDRESSING THE AREAS OF CONCERN SPECIFIED IN THE BILL WOULD CARRY MUCH GREATER WEIGHT WITH THE U.S. CONGRESS. U.S.-ZIMBABWE RELATIONSHIP -------------- ¶3. (C) SHAMUYARIRA SAID THE GOZ WANTS TO KEEP RELATIONS WITH THE USG "ON AN EVEN KEEL," AS THE UNITED STATES HAS ALWAYS USED ITS INFLUENCE IN ZIMBABWE CONSTRUCTIVELY. HE SAID THE BRITISH ARE "AGAINST US" AND HAVE CONVINCED THE EUROPEAN UNION TO TAKE THE SAME TACK. THE GOZ HOPED THE USG WOULD DISTANCE ITSELF FROM THAT APPROACH BY DROPPING ZDERA AND BY MAKING A GESTURE TOWARD MUGABE. (NOTE: HE DID NOT ELABORATE ON WHAT KIND OF GESTURE MIGHT BE HELPFUL. END NOTE.) HE URGED THAT PRESIDENT BUSH "PLEASE, PLEASE" NOT PURSUE A CONFRONTATIONAL APPROACH WITH PRESIDENT MUGABE, AS IT WOULD NOT BE PRODUCTIVE. ¶4. (C) THE AMBASSADOR SAID POLITICAL VIOLENCE AND RULE OF LAW ARE CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 03527 01 OF 03 231104Z MAJOR ISSUES FOR THE UNITED STATES, AND PROGRESS OR LACK OF PROGRESS ON THOSE FRONTS WOULD BE KEY DETERMINANTS OF OUR BILATERAL RELATIONSHIP. IT IS IMPORTANT THAT OUR TWO GOVERNMENTS MAINTAIN OPEN CHANNELS OF COMMUNICATION, BUT HE SAID HE WANTED TO MAKE IT VERY CLEAR THAT THE MOST IMPORTANT THING FOR THE UNITED STATES IS TO SEE CONCRETE IMPROVEMENTS ON THE GROUND. UNFORTUNATELY, THE POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT HAS DETERIORATED SINCE THE MID-OCTOBER VISIT OF AF PDAS MARK BELLAMY. THE RECENT POLITICAL VIOLENCE IN BULAWAYO (REFTELS),IN PARTICULAR, HAD CAUSED US SERIOUS CONCERN. THE AMBASSADOR NOTED THAT HE HAD SEEN MULTIPLE ACCOUNTS THAT WAR VETERANS BURNED DOWN THE MDC OFFICE WHILE POLICE STOOD BY AND DID NOTHING. THAT IS THE SORT OF ACTION, HE SAID, WHICH GARNERS INTERNATIONAL HEADLINES AND MAKES IT MORE LIKELY THAT ZDERA WILL PASS. IF THAT REPORT IS TRUE AND POLICE DID NOT TAKE ANY ACTION, SHAMUYARIRA REPLIED, THEY SHOULD BE REPRIMANDED. POLICE, HE ASSERTED, SHOULD BE NEUTRAL AND DO EVERYTHING IN THEIR POWER TO MAINTAIN LAW AND ORDER, REGARDLESS OF WHO VIOLATES IT. LAND, VIOLENCE, ELECTIONS -------------- CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ7306 PAGE 01 HARARE 03527 02 OF 03 231104Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 INL-00 DODE-00 DOTE-00 WHA-00 DS-00 EAP-00 EB-00 EUR-00 FAAE-00 FBIE-00 VC-00 TEDE-00 INR-00 VCE-00 NSAE-00 EPAE-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /002W -------------- 4231AD 231105Z /38 P 231017Z NOV 01 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0355 INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY AMEMBASSY NAIROBI AMEMBASSY OSLO AMEMBASSY STOCKHOLM AMEMBASSY CANBERRA AMEMBASSY OTTAWA AMEMBASSY KINGSTON C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 03 HARARE 003527 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER BRUSSELS ALSO FOR USEU LONDON FOR GURNEY PARIS FOR NEARY NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER E.O. 12958: DECL. 11/23/11 TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM PINR CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 03527 02 OF 03 231104Z SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR, ZANU-PF SECRETARY OF INFORMATION NATHAN SHAMUYARIRA DISCUSS ZDERA, POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS ¶5. (C) ON LAND, THE AMBASSADOR CONTINUED, THE ABUJA AGREEMENT APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN PREEMPTED BY EXECUTIVE ACTIONS INTENDED TO PROHIBIT THE ABILITY OF COMMERCIAL FARMERS AFFECTED BY FAST TRACK TO PURSUE LEGAL REMEDIES. REGARDING PREPARATIONS FOR THE ELECTION, WE CONTINUE TO RECEIVE REPORTS OF POLITICAL VIOLENCE, PARTICULARLY IN RURAL AREAS. IN ADDITION, THE PROPOSED AMENDMENTS TO THE ELECTORAL ACT CAUSE US SERIOUS CONCERN, INCLUDING THE APPARENT INTENTION TO PREVENT CIVIL SOCIETY FROM SERVING AS DOMESTIC ELECTION MONITORS, A ROLE THEY HAVE TRADITIONALLY PLAYED IN ZIMBABWE. THE AMBASSADOR REMINDED SHAMUYARIRA THAT WE ARE STILL AWAITING WORD FROM THE GOZ ON WHETHER INTERNATIONAL OBSERVERS WILL BE PERMITTED. ¶6. (C) SHAMUYARIRA REPLIED THAT HE WAS NOT FULLY BRIEFED ON THE GOVERNMENT'S RECENT MOVES ON LAND. HE WAS CONCERNED BY THE ANNOUNCED INTENTION TO LIMIT THE SIZES OF FARMS TO AS LITTLE AS 250 HECTARES, WHICH WAS "TOO SMALL FOR VIABLE FARMING." REGARDING THE ELECTION, THE ZANU-PF OFFICIAL SAID INTERNATIONAL OBSERVERS WOULD BE PERMITTED AFTER THE ELECTION DATES ARE ANNOUNCED. HE MADE IT CLEAR THAT INVITATIONS WOULD NOT BE ISSUED TO SCANDINAVIAN COUNTRIES, WHICH HE CLAIMED STRONGLY SUPPORT THE OPPOSITION MDC AND WOULD CAMPAIGN HEAVILY FOR THE OPPOSITION PARTY UNDER THE GUISE OF ELECTION OBSERVATION. "WE DO NOT WANT LONG-HAIRED SCANDINAVIANS TEACHING US ABOUT DEMOCRACY," HE SAID. HE ASSERTED THAT THE RULING PARTY IS URGING ITS SUPPORTERS TO CONDUCT A PEACEFUL CAMPAIGN, BUT HE WARNED THAT IT WOULD BE DIFFICULT TO CONTROL THEM IN THE FACE OF CONTINUED PROVOCATIONS FROM THE MDC. CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 03527 02 OF 03 231104Z IF THE MDC COULD KEEP ITS FOLLOWERS QUIET, HE SURMISED, ZANU-PF COULD "LIKELY KEEP OURS QUIET AS WELL." OF COURSE OUR ELECTION WILL BE FREE AND FAIR -------------- ¶7. (C) SHAMUYARIRA DECLARED THAT ZIMBABWE HAD HELD FREE AND FAIR ELECTIONS SINCE INDEPENDENCE, AND HE INSISTED THAT THERE WOULD BE NO RIGGING OR TAMPERING IN THE UPCOMING PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION. HE DISMISSED CONCERNS THAT REGISTRAR-GENERAL TOBAIWA MUDEDE IS TOO CLOSELY TIED TO THE RULING PARTY. MUDEDE, HE POINTED OUT, HAD ORGANIZED THE FEBRUARY 2000 CONSTITUTIONAL REFERENDUM IN WHICH THE GOVERNMENT HAD BEEN DEFEATED, SUPERVISED THE PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS IN JUNE 2000 IN WHICH THE MDC WON A SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF SEATS, AND OVERSAW THE 2001 MAYORAL ELECTIONS IN MASVINGO AND BULAWAYO, BOTH OF WHICH THE MDC WON. SINCE ANY SYSTEM CAN BE MANIPULATED, SHAMUYARIRA SAID, THE STRENGTH OF ANY ELECTORAL PROCESS DEPENDS ON THE INTEGRITY OF THE INDIVIDUALS WHO OVERSEE IT, AND ZIMBABWE'S ELECTORAL AUTHORITIES HAVE ALWAYS BEEN NON- PARTISAN AND OF THE HIGHEST INTEGRITY. SHAMUYARIRA SAID HE DID NOT THINK ANY ZIMBABWEAN BELIEVES PRESIDENT MUGABE OR ZANU-PF RIGS ELECTIONS, ALTHOUGH THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY HAS HAMMERED THEM FOR DOING SO. WHEN THE OPPOSITION PARTY CALLS FOR MUDEDE TO GO, THEY ARE REALLY PUSHING FOR AN MDC SUPPORTER TO REPLACE HIM. ¶8. (C) THE AMBASSADOR ENCOURAGED THE GOZ TO ESTABLISH MECHANISMS TO REASSURE POLITICAL PARTIES AND ZIMBABWEANS IN GENERAL OF THE INTEGRITY AND FAIRNESS OF THE ELECTORAL PROCESS. ESTABLISHMENT OF AN INDEPENDENT ELECTORAL COMMISSION, AS RECOMMENDED BY THE SADC PARLIAMENTARY FORUM'S ELECTORAL NORMS AND STANDARDS, IS ONE IMPORTANT STEP. ANOTHER IS TO PERMIT INTERNATIONAL OBSERVATION OF CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 03527 02 OF 03 231104Z THE ELECTORAL PROCESS BY CREDIBLE, NON-PARTISAN ORGANIZATIONS. IN ADDITION, VOTER EDUCATION CAN BE AN AREA FOR COOPERATION RATHER THAN CONFRONTATION. TO THE EXTENT THAT ELECTORAL AUTHORITIES CAN FIND WAYS TO MAXIMIZE THE INFORMATION GETTING TO ELIGIBLE VOTERS, THAT HELPS BUTTRESS CONFIDENCE IN THE PROCESS. SHAMUYARIRA RESPONDED THAT THEY WOULD ALLOW POLITICAL PARTIES TO CONDUCT VOTER EDUCATION BUT WOULD HENCEFORTH PROHIBIT NGO'S FROM DOING SO. CIVIL SOCIETY IN ZIMBABWE IS NOT NEUTRAL, HE INSISTED BUT, RATHER, IS CLOSELY ALIGNED WITH THE MDC. IF THE PLEA THE AMBASSADOR WAS MAKING WAS TO ALLOW CIVIC BODIES TO CARRY OUT VOTER EDUCATION, HE WOULD MAKE A COUNTER-DEMAND THAT THEY BE GENUINELY NEUTRAL. THAT IS A FAIR POINT THAT SHOULD BE EXAMINED BY THE ELECTORAL AUTHORITIES, THE AMBASSADOR REPLIED, BUT THE BEST PRINCIPLE, IN GENERAL, IS THE MORE EDUCATION OF VOTERS, THE BETTER. RACIAL TENSIONS -------------- ¶9. (C) SHAMUYARIRA SAID THEY HAVE BEEN VERY DISAPPOINTED BY THE BEHAVIOR OF "EUROPEANS" (WHITE ZIMBABWEANS),WHO DECLINED TO PARTICIPATE IN THE POLITICAL PROCESS HERE AFTER INDEPENDENCE. FOR CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ7307 PAGE 01 HARARE 03527 03 OF 03 231105Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 INL-00 DODE-00 DOTE-00 WHA-00 DS-00 EAP-00 EB-00 EUR-00 FAAE-00 FBIE-00 VC-00 TEDE-00 INR-00 VCE-00 NSAE-00 EPAE-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /002W -------------- 4231B2 231105Z /38 P 231017Z NOV 01 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0356 INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY AMEMBASSY NAIROBI AMEMBASSY OSLO AMEMBASSY STOCKHOLM AMEMBASSY CANBERRA AMEMBASSY OTTAWA AMEMBASSY KINGSTON C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 03 HARARE 003527 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER BRUSSELS ALSO FOR USEU LONDON FOR GURNEY PARIS FOR NEARY NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER E.O. 12958: DECL. 11/23/11 TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM PINR CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 03527 03 OF 03 231105Z SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR, ZANU-PF SECRETARY OF INFORMATION NATHAN SHAMUYARIRA DISCUSS ZDERA, POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS TWENTY YEARS, THEY KEPT TO THEMSELVES, "GOING FISHING ON LAKE KARIBA" INSTEAD OF ATTENDING NATIONAL DAYS IN HARARE. WHEN THEY CAME OUT STRONGLY IN SUPPORT OF THE MDC PRIOR TO THE JUNE 2000 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS, THEIR STANCE "ELICITED A VERY STRONG REACTION FROM US." COMMENT -------------- ¶10. (C) WE HAD BARELY SAT DOWN WHEN SHAMUYARIRA LAUNCHED INTO ZDERA, AND THE IMPORTANCE TO THE GOZ OF BLOCKING CONGRESSIONAL PASSAGE. ALTHOUGH ZDERA WOULD HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON THE GROUND HERE IN TERMS OF DECREASED ECONOMIC ASSISTANCE OR IMF/IBRD RE- ENGAGEMENT, THE GOZ AND ZANU-PF REALIZE ITS PASSAGE WOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT GESTURE OF U.S. DISAPPROVAL OF GOZ ACTIONS, AND THEREFORE HOPES VERY MUCH THAT IT CAN BE TURNED OFF. THAT SAID, ZDERA'S APPROVAL WOULD CERTAINLY PROMPT THE GOZ TO ADD US TO THE BURGEONING LIST OF FOREIGN ENEMIES WHICH ALREADY INCLUDES THE UNITED KINGDOM, THE SCANDINAVIANS, AND THE EU (AT LEAST WE WOULD BE IN GOOD COMPANY). WE WOULD EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN OFFICIAL ANTI-USG RHETORIC AND REDUCED ACCESS TO GOZ OFFICIALS. IN A WORST-CASE SCENARIO, THE GOZ WOULD USE ZDERA AS A PRETEXT TO INVOKE SOVEREIGNTY CONCERNS AND LAUNCH A NO-HOLDS BARRED CRACKDOWN ON THE MDC, THE INDEPENDENT PRESS, AND OTHER ELEMENTS OF CIVIL SOCIETY SUPPORTED BY ITS NEW ENEMY. WE RECALL THAT FM MUDENGE SAID IN PARLIAMENT SEVERAL MONTHS AGO THAT PASSAGE OF ZDERA COULD PROMPT THE GOZ TO DECLARE A STATE OF EMERGENCY, A BLUFF THAT WE ARE WILLING TO CALL. CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 03527 03 OF 03 231105Z SULLIVAN CONFIDENTIAL >