UNEASY CALM RETURNS TO BULAWAYO AS CRACKDOWN ON MDC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 003463 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER BRUSSELS ALSO FOR USEU LONDON FOR GURNEY PARIS FOR NEARY NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER E.O. 12958: DECL. 11/19/11 TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ZI SUBJECT: UNEASY CALM RETURNS TO BULAWAYO AS CRACKDOWN ON MDC INTENSIFIES REF: HARARE 3400 CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF MATT HARRINGTON. REASONS: 1.5 (B) AND (D). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) IN A SEVERAL-HOUR RAMPAGE THROUGH BULAWAYO ON NOVEMBER 16, WAR VETERANS AND ZANU-PF SUPPORTERS BURNED TO THE GROUND THE OPPOSITION MDC'S OFFICE, RANSACKED THE OFFICE OF THE CITY'S MAYOR, BEAT THOSE SELLING AND READING INDEPENDENT NEWSPAPERS, AND SMASHED CAR WINDSHIELDS. THEY WERE ESCORTED BY RIOT POLICE WHO DID NOT INTERVENE. IN RETALIATION, MDC SUPPORTERS BURNED DOWN A PRIVATE COLLEGE OWNED BY A SENIOR ZANU-PF OFFICIAL AND A TRUCK BELONGING TO A GOVERNMENT NEWSPAPER, AND CLASHES BETWEEN THE TWO GROUPS CONTINUED INTO THE NIGHT IN THE HIGH-DENSITY SUBURBS. AN UNEASY CALM HAS RETURNED TO ZIMBABWE'S SECOND-LARGEST CITY, BUT FEW OBSERVERS BELIEVE THE VIOLENCE IS OVER. REMARKS BY PRESIDENT MUGABE ON NOVEMBER 19 WILL NOT HELP MATTERS, AS THE PRESIDENT BLAMED THE RECENT MURDER OF A PROMINENT WAR VETERAN ON THE MDC, ACCUSED THE OPPOSITION PARTY OF OPERATING TERRORIST TRAINING CAMPS AND TORTURING ZANU-PF SUPPORTERS, AND INSISTING THAT THE MDC'S "DAYS ARE NUMBERED." THE MDC'S NATIONAL COORDINATOR BELIEVES THE GOZ IS TRYING TO FRAME THE MDC AS A TERRORIST ORGANIZATION WHICH CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 03463 01 OF 03 191923Z RECEIVES FOREIGN FUNDING IN VIOLATION OF ZIMBABWEAN LAW, THUS PROVIDING A LEGAL BASIS FOR OUTLAWING THE PARTY AND PROHIBITING IT FROM CONTESTING THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION. FOR OUR PART, WE SURMISE THAT INTIMIDATION GUARANTEEING A ZANU-PF "VICTORY" AT THE POLLS MAY BE MUGABE'S BOTTOM LINE. END SUMMARY. WAR VETERANS RAMPAGE THROUGH BULAWAYO -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) SEVERAL HUNDRED WAR VETERANS AND ZANU-PF SUPPORTERS RAMPAGED THROUGH THE CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT OF BULAWAYO ON NOVEMBER 16 AFTER MEETING WITH SENIOR RULING PARTY OFFICIALS ABOUT THE MURDER OF WAR VETERAN LEADER CAIN NKALA (REFTEL). ESCORTED BY RIOT POLICE WHO APPARENTLY DID NOTHING TO RESTRAIN THEM, THE MOB RANDOMLY ATTACKED WITH STICKS VENDORS AND READERS OF INDEPENDENT NEWSPAPERS AND BROKE CAR WINDSHIELDS, FORCING A NUMBER OF FRIGHTENED BUSINESS OWNERS TO SHUT DOWN. ACCORDING TO PRESS REPORTS, ONE WHITE ELDERLY MAN WAS BEATEN BY THE MOB, AND THERE WERE REPORTS THAT A GERMAN AID WORKER WHO HAPPENED TO BE IN THE VICINITY WAS ALSO ACCOSTED. THE CROWD PROCEEDED TO CITY HALL, WHERE SEVERAL MARCHERS RANSACKED THE OFFICE OF MAYOR JAPHET NDABENI-NCUBE, ELECTED IN SEPTEMBER ON THE TICKET OF THE OPPOSITION MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE (MDC). NDABENI-NCUBE TOLD US THAT HE ESCAPED JUST BEFORE EIGHT MEN COMPLETELY RANSACKED HIS OFFICE -- HE LATER FOUND IMPORTANT PAPERS OUTSIDE IN A FLOWER GARDEN -- AND STOLE HIS BRIEFCASE. HE REPORTED THE INCIDENT TO POLICE IMMEDIATELY AFTERWARD, BUT THEY HAD YET TO APPEAR BY NOVEMBER 19, THREE DAYS LATER. THE MOB CAPPED OFF ITS DESTRUCTIVE AFTERNOON BY THROWING PETROL BOMBS AT THE OFFICE BUILDING OF THE OPPOSITION MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE (MDC),REDUCING IT TO A SMOLDERING SHELL, AS POLICE STOOD BY. CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 03463 01 OF 03 191923Z RETALIATION -------------- ¶3. (C) THE BURNING OF THE MDC OFFICES SPARKED RETALIATION FROM ANGRY MDC YOUTHS, WHO BURNED DOWN A PRIVATE COLLEGE OWNED BY SIKHANYISO NDLOVU, ZANU-PF'S ACTING POLITICAL COMMISSAR AND SET ALIGHT A TRUCK BELONGING TO THE GOVERNMENT-CONTROLLED NEWSPAPER "THE CHRONICLE." A CROWD OF SEVERAL THOUSAND BULAWAYO RESIDENTS THEN GATHERED IN FRONT OF ZANU-PF OFFICES, INTENT ON DOING DAMAGE, BUT DISPERSED AFTER A TENSE STANDOFF WITH RIOT POLICE. SHARI EPPEL, DIRECTOR OF THE BULAWAYO OFFICE OF THE RESPECTED HUMAN RIGHTS ORGANIZATION AMANI TRUST, SAID SKIRMISHES BETWEEN ZANU-PF AND MDC SUPPORTERS CONTINUED INTO THE NIGHT IN SOME OF THE CITY'S HIGH-DENSITY SUBURBS, BUT THAT THE SITUATION HAD CALMED DOWN BY THE NEXT MORNING. SHE SAID MOST OF THE WAR VETERANS AND RULING PARTY THUGS WHO HAD STARTED THE TROUBLE ARRIVED ON TRAINS THE NIGHT BEFORE, WHILE A PROMINENT INDEPENDENT JOURNALIST TOLD US THE TROUBLEMAKERS WERE "NOT FROM HERE." ¶4. (C) THE WAR VETERANS AND ZANU-PF SUPPORTERS WENT ON THEIR RAMPAGE AFTER RULING PARTY POLITBURO MEMBER -- AND FORMER MINISTER OF HOME AFFAIRS -- DUMISO DABENGWA REPORTEDLY WHIPPED THEM INTO AN CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ7590 PAGE 01 HARARE 03463 02 OF 03 191923Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 AID-00 CIAE-00 DODE-00 WHA-00 SRPP-00 EB-00 EUR-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 L-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 NSCE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 SS-00 STR-00 TRSE-00 T-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 PRM-00 DRL-02 G-00 SAS-00 /007W -------------- 4070AE 191924Z /48 O 191433Z NOV 01 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0318 INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY AMEMBASSY NAIROBI AMEMBASSY OSLO AMEMBASSY STOCKHOLM AMEMBASSY CANBERRA AMEMBASSY OTTAWA AMEMBASSY ABUJA AMEMBASSY KINGSTON C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 03 HARARE 003463 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER BRUSSELS ALSO FOR USEU LONDON FOR GURNEY PARIS FOR NEARY NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 03463 02 OF 03 191923Z E.O. 12958: DECL. 11/19/11 TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ZI SUBJECT: UNEASY CALM RETURNS TO BULAWAYO AS CRACKDOWN ON MDC INTENSIFIES EMOTIONAL STATE. ACCORDING TO THE GOVERNMENT-CONTROLLED DAILY "THE HERALD," DABENGWA DESCRIBED NKALA'S MURDER AS TERRORISM, AND CALLED ON THOSE PRESENT TO "CRUSH THIS TERRORISM...IN ITS INFANCY. NOTHING IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO THIS COUNTRY WHILE WE ARE ALIVE, THOSE WHO THINK THEY CAN RULE IT WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF WHITES SHOULD FORGET IT." ZANU-PF'S ACTING POLITICAL COMMISSAR SIKHANYISO NDLOVU TOLD US HE HAD URGED THE CROWD TO MARCH WITH A POLICE ESCORT TO ENSURE THAT CRIMINAL ELEMENTS COULD NOT JOIN AND ENGAGE IN ACTIVITIES WHICH WOULD DISCREDIT THEM. ASKED WHY THE POLICE DID NOT INTERVENE TO PREVENT THE MOB FROM BEATING PEOPLE OR DESTROYING PROPERTY, NDLOVU CLAIMED THAT THEY WERE OUTNUMBERED. UNEASY CALM IN BULAWAYO -------------- ¶5. (C) SHARI EPPEL SAID THAT AN UNEASY CALM RETURNED TO BULAWAYO OVER THE WEEKEND. SHE WAS GLAD NKALA HAD BEEN DECLARED A NATIONAL HERO BY THE RULING PARTY POLITBURO. THAT DEVELOPMENT ENSURED THAT THE "CIRCUS" MOVED TO HARARE FOR THE NOVEMBER 18 BURIAL OF NKALA AT HEROES' ACRE AND ALLOWED TENSIONS IN ZIMBABWE'S SECOND-LARGEST CITY TO COOL. EPPEL DESCRIBED BULAWAYO RESIDENTS AS ANXIOUS AND IN A "WAIT AND SEE" MODE. MUGABE PULLS NO PUNCHES -------------- CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 03463 02 OF 03 191923Z ¶6. (C) AT NKALA'S BURIAL, PRESIDENT MUGABE WAS NOT IN A CONCILIATORY MOOD. IN VENOMOUS REMARKS, HE BLAMED THE LATE WAR VETERAN'S MURDER ON THE MDC, WHICH HE SAID OPERATES TERRORIST TRAINING CAMPS INSIDE AND OUTSIDE ZIMBABWE AND REGULARLY TORTURES ZANU-PF SUPPORTERS. HE INSISTED THAT NKALA'S DEATH WAS THE RESULT OF AN "ORCHESTRATED, MUCH WIDER AND CAREFULLY PLANNED TERRORIST PLOT BY INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL ENEMY FORCES WITH PLENTY OF FUNDING FROM...COMMERCIAL FARMERS" AND INTERNATIONAL AND REGIONAL ORGANIZATIONS. "THE MDC AND THEIR SUPPORTERS," HE VOWED, "SHOULD KNOW THAT THEIR DAYS ARE NUMBERED." MDC MP DAVID COLTART EXPRESSED CONCERN TO US THAT THE PRESIDENT'S COMMENTS COULD SPARK MORE VIOLENCE IN BULAWAYO. MEANWHILE, A REPORTER AND A PHOTOGRAPHER FROM THE INDEPENDENT "DAILY NEWS" WERE ARRESTED ON NOVEMBER 18 PRIOR TO THEIR PUBLISHING AN INTERVIEW WITH SOMEONE WHO CLAIMED TO KNOW THE FULL DETAILS OF NKALA'S ABDUCTION AND MURDER. GOVERNMENT MEDIA ALLEGED THAT THE "DAILY NEWS" JOURNALISTS HAD TORTURED AN INDIVIDUAL INTO CONFESSING THAT HE WAS A CIO AGENT AND THAT THEY HAD MURDERED NKALA. POLICE SEIZED THE REPORTER'S NOTES OF THE INTERVIEW AND THE PHOTOGRAPHER'S PICTURE OF THE INTERVIEWEE, AND THE TWO JOURNALISTS WERE STILL IN DETENTION ON NOVEMBER 19. BAN THE MDC -------------- ¶7. (C) MDC NATIONAL COORDINATOR ISAAC MAPOSA TOLD POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF ON NOVEMBER 19 THAT 30 MDC OFFICIALS AND EMPLOYEES HAD BEEN DETAINED SO FAR IN CONNECTION WITH THE NKALA MURDER, THE MOST SENIOR OF WHOM WAS FLETCHER DULINI-NCUBE, THE PARTY'S NATIONAL TREASURER. MAPOSA DISMISSED GOZ ACCUSATIONS OF MDC CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 03463 02 OF 03 191923Z INVOLVEMENT IN NKALA'S MURDER, SAYING A RELIABLE WAR VETERAN BASED IN BULAWAYO HAD TOLD THE OPPOSITION PARTY IN CONFIDENCE THAT HE HAD BEEN KILLED BY OTHER WAR VETERANS. MAPOSA ACKNOWLEDGED FEELING FRIGHTENED BY THE WEEK'S TURN OF EVENTS, NOTING THAT ONE IS NOT DEALING WITH A RATIONAL, REASONABLE GOVERNMENT BUT, RATHER, ONE WILLING TO TORTURE AND KILL THOSE WHO DO NOT AGREE WITH IT. MAPOSA BELIEVES THE GOVERNMENT'S STRATEGY IS TO BUILD A CASE AGAINST THE MDC AS A TERRORIST ORGANIZATION BY TORTURING MDC SUPPORTERS INTO MAKING FALSE CONFESSIONS IN THE NKALA CASE AND BY IDENTIFYING ANY FOREIGN SOURCES OF FUNDING FOR THE PARTY, WHICH WOULD PROVIDE A LEGAL BASIS FOR OUTLAWING THE MDC AND PREVENTING IT FROM CONTESTING THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION. ASKED WHETHER THE MDC RECEIVES FOREIGN SOURCES OF FUNDING, MAPOSA SAID YES, BUT ONLY THREE PEOPLE IN THE PARTY ARE AWARE OF THE DETAILS: HIMSELF, PRESIDENT MORGAN TSVANGIRAI, AND SECRETARY-GENERAL WELSHMAN NCUBE. MAPOSA WAS CLEARLY ANXIOUS THAT HE WOULD BE HAULED IN AND FORCED TO REVEAL WHAT HE KNOWS ABOUT THIS TOPIC. COMMENT -------------- ¶8. (C) TENSIONS HAD BEEN BUILDING IN BULAWAYO FOR TEN DAYS, AS THE GOVERNMENT/ZANU-PF ORCHESTRATED A CAMPAIGN BLAMING THE MDC FOR CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ7592 PAGE 01 HARARE 03463 03 OF 03 191924Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 AID-00 CIAE-00 DODE-00 WHA-00 SRPP-00 EB-00 EUR-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 L-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 NSCE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 SS-00 STR-00 TRSE-00 T-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 PRM-00 DRL-02 G-00 SAS-00 /007W -------------- 4070B3 191924Z /48 O 191433Z NOV 01 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0319 INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY AMEMBASSY NAIROBI AMEMBASSY OSLO AMEMBASSY STOCKHOLM AMEMBASSY CANBERRA AMEMBASSY OTTAWA AMEMBASSY ABUJA AMEMBASSY KINGSTON C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 03 HARARE 003463 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER BRUSSELS ALSO FOR USEU LONDON FOR GURNEY PARIS FOR NEARY NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 03463 03 OF 03 191924Z E.O. 12958: DECL. 11/19/11 TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ZI SUBJECT: UNEASY CALM RETURNS TO BULAWAYO AS CRACKDOWN ON MDC INTENSIFIES NKALA'S MURDER. ACCORDING TO SHARI EPPEL, MOST LOCAL RESIDENTS ARE "100% CONVINCED" THAT IT WAS AN INSIDE JOB. NO EVIDENCE -- OTHER THAN A CONFESSION FROM TWO MDC SUPPORTERS WHICH MAY HAVE BEEN ELICITED UNDER DURESS OR THROUGH BRIBERY -- HAS BEEN PRESENTED IMPLICATING ANYONE IN THE MURDER. THE FAILURE OF POLICE TO PREVENT THE WAR VETERANS FROM GUTTING THE MDC BUILDING, RANSACKING THE MAYOR'S OFFICE, AND BEATING PEOPLE AS THEY WENT -- AND THEIR FAILURE EVEN TO INVESTIGATE THE INCIDENT IN THE MAYOR'S OFFICE THREE DAYS AFTER THE FACT -- SUGGESTS GOZ SANCTION OR COMPLIANCE. IT IS CLEAR THAT IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH FOR THE RESIDENTS OF BULAWAYO -- WHO HAVE BORNE THE BRUNT OF GOVERNMENT NEGLECT AND THE RULING PARTY'S VIOLENT TACTICS IN THE PAST -- TO POUR INTO THE STREETS, A FACT WHICH MIGHT HAVE TAKEN ZANU-PF OFFICIALS BY SURPRISE. THIS MIGHT ACCOUNT FOR THE NOVEMBER 16 APPEALS FOR RESTRAINT BY HOME AFFAIRS MINISTER JOHN NKOMO AND INFORMATION MINISTER JONATHAN MOYO. BUT MUGABE'S IRRESPONSIBLE REMARKS AT THE NKALA FUNERAL SPEAK FOR THEMSELVES, AND COULD VERY WELL FORESHADOW A CRACKDOWN ON THE MDC OF THE KIND DESCRIBED BY MAPOSA, ALTHOUGH WE DO NOT THINK THAT MUGABE WISHES TO JETTISON HIS LEGITIMACY BY COMPLETELY BANNING THE MDC FROM CONTESTING AN ELECTION IN WHICH ALL THE LOGISTICAL AND LEGAL ADVANTAGES ACCRUE TO ZANU-PF. SULLIVAN CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 03463 03 OF 03 191924Z CONFIDENTIAL >