AMBASSADOR'S DISCUSSION WITH INFLUENTIAL ZANU-PF

C O N F I D E N T I A L HARARE 003439 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER BRUSSELS ALSO FOR USEU LONDON FOR GURNEY PARIS FOR NEARY NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER E.O. 12958: DECL. 11/13/11 TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ZI SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR'S DISCUSSION WITH INFLUENTIAL ZANU-PF POLITBURO MEMBER CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF MATT HARRINGTON. REASONS: 1.5 (B) AND (D). IMPORTANCE OF POLITICAL DIALOGUE -------------- ¶1. (C) IN A NOVEMBER 12 CONVERSATION WITH THE AMBASSADOR AND POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF, ZANU-PF POLITBURO MEMBER SOLOMON MUJURU SAID HE WAS PROUD OF HIS ROLE IN ENSURING THAT THE SEPTEMBER BY- ELECTION IN CHIKOMBA (HIS HOME BASE) WAS THE MOST PEACEFUL BY- ELECTION SINCE JUNE 2000. HE TOLD US THAT HE HAD HOSTED A BARBECUE AT HIS LOCAL HOME THAT INCLUDED THE RULING PARTY AND MDC PARLIAMENTARY CANDIDATES, AS WELL AS LOCAL OFFICIALS FROM BOTH PARTIES, AT WHICH HE HAD URGED EVERYONE INVOLVED TO CONDUCT A PEACEFUL CAMPAIGN. HE SAID HE WAS WORKING WITH OTHERS TO MINIMIZE INCIDENTS OF POLITICAL VIOLENCE IN THE RUNUP TO THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN EARLY 2002. ¶2. (C) MUJURU EXPRESSED REGRET THAT THE POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME SO CHARGED THAT MANY ZIMBABWEANS DO NOT FEEL FREE TO SHARE THEIR POLITICAL OPINIONS. HE SAID BOTH PARTIES SHOULD BE ABLE TO ENGAGE IN A DIALOGUE ABOUT THE WAY FORWARD, AND HE THOUGHT AN ELECTORAL CODE OF CONDUCT WAS A GOOD IDEA. THE ELECTION CAMPAIGN SHOULD BE A CLEAN FIGHT, AND BOTH SIDES SHOULD BE ABLE TO ACCEPT THE OUTCOME. IT WAS NOT IN ZIMBABWE'S INTEREST FOR POLITICAL PARTIES TO REGARD EACH OTHER AS ENEMIES INSTEAD OF LEGITIMATE OPPONENTS, BUT HE ACKNOWLEDGED THE DIFFICULTY OF BUILDING TRUST BETWEEN ZANU-PF AND THE MDC AND OF CREATING AN ENABLING ENVIRONMENT FOR CONSTRUCTIVE INTER-PARTY TALKS. MUJURU ASSERTED THAT THE MDC WOULD NOW CONTROL PARLIAMENT IF THE "YES" VOTE HAD CARRIED THE DAY IN THE FEBRUARY 2000 REFERENDUM, AS THE DRAFT CONSTITUTION WOULD HAVE ABOLISHED THE 30 SEATS APPOINTED BY THE PRESIDENT AND INCREASED THE NUMBER OF SEATS REPRESENTING URBAN AREAS, THE OPPOSITION PARTY'S STRONGHOLD. HE SAID HIS "FRIENDS IN CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 03439 170913Z ZANU-PF" QUESTION HIS OPENNESS WITH PEOPLE OF ALL POLITICAL STRIPES. HE JOKED THAT HE TALKS TO THE COMMERCIAL FARMERS SO MUCH THAT WHEN HE SPEAKS WITH PRESIDENT MUGABE, THE FIRST THING THE PRESIDENT ASKS IS WHETHER MUJURU HAS FARMERS WITH HIM. ¶3. (C) MUJURU SAID THE DECISION ON THE TIMING OF THE ELECTION WOULD BE MADE AT ZANU-PF'S CONGRESS IN DECEMBER AND WOULD BE MADE PUBLIC SOON AFTER THAT. ASKED WHO WOULD WIN THE ELECTION, MUJURU SAID ONLY THAT IT WOULD BE EXTREMELY CLOSE. HE PREDICTED THAT THE VICTORIOUS PARTY WOULD GARNER BETWEEN 51 AND 55% OF THE TOTAL VOTE COUNT. (N.B. MUJURU RECENTLY REMARKED TO A BRITISH COLLEAGUE THAT THE RULING PARTY WOULD WIN 55% OF THE VOTE. ASKED WHAT PERCENTAGE IT WOULD GARNER IF MUGABE WERE NOT THE CANDIDATE, MUJURU REPORTEDLY SAID "75%." END N.B.) LINKS WITH MILITARY -------------- ¶4. (C) THE AMBASSADOR ASKED WHETHER MUJURU HAD RETAINED CLOSE LINKS TO MILITARY COMMANDERS SINCE HIS RETIREMENT AS CHIEF OF THE DEFENSE FORCES IN 1992. YES, MUJURU REPLIED, HE STILL HAD GOOD RELATIONS WITH "THE BOYS." THE AMBASSADOR NOTED THAT HE HAD HAD A GOOD MEETING RECENTLY WITH MINISTER OF DEFENSE SEKERAMAYI. MUJURI SAID SEKERAMAYI HAD CALLED HIM IMMEDIATELY AFTERWARDS TO BRIEF HIM ON THAT MEETING, AND THAT THE MINISTER SHARED THE AMBASSADOR'S POSITIVE ASSESSMENT OF THEIR CONVERSATION. FAST TRACK RESETTLEMENT PROGRAM -------------- ¶5. (C) MUJURU WAS NOT HAPPY WITH HOW THE FAST TRACK RESETTLEMENT CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 03439 170913Z PROGRAM HAS UNFOLDED. THE PARTY, HE CLAIMED, HAD SET OUT VERY CLEAR AND REASONABLE CRITERIA FOR LAND REFORM. THE UNLEASHING OF THE WAR VETERANS, HOWEVER, HAD KNOCKED THE PROGRAM OFF-TRACK, AND IT WAS NOT "WORKING AS WE HAD PLANNED." NOTING THAT HE WAS A WHEAT AND SOYBEAN FARMER HIMSELF, HE EXPRESSED CONCERN THAT RESETTLED FAMILIES WERE NOT BEING PROVIDED WITH SUFFICIENT RESOURCES TO TURN THEIR NEW PROPERTIES INTO SUSTAINABLE ECONOMIC ENTERPRISES. COMMENT -------------- ¶6. (C) ALTHOUGH NOT PARTICULARLY ARTICULATE OR INTELLECTUALLY IMPRESSIVE, GENERAL MUJURU CARRIES SIGNIFICANT BEHIND-THE-SCENES INFLUENCE WITH KEY DECISION-MAKERS, AS EVIDENCED BY SEKERAMAYI'S TELPHONE CALL TO HIM. HE IS, IN FACT, CONSIDERED A POTENTIAL KINGMAKER BY MANY OBSERVERS. IN ADDITION, SOME OF THE MILITARY'S KEY COMMANDERS SERVED UNDER MUJURU, RETAIN STRONG LOYALTIES TO HIM, AND WOULD FOLLOW HIS LEAD IF THE DETERIORATION OF THE POLITICAL EVENTS HERE SPARKED SOME DEGREE OF MILITARY INVOLVEMENT. CONSEQUENTLY, MUJURU IS REPORTEDLY ONE OF THE FEW PEOPLE WHOSE ADVICE PRESIDENT MUGABE TAKES SERIOUSLY. GIVEN HIS POSITIVE ROLE IN THE CHIKOMBA BY-ELECTION AND HIS MODERATE, NO NONSENSE VIEWS ON ISSUES SUCH AS POLITICAL DIALOGUE, WE BELIEVE HE CAN, AND IS TRYING TO, MINIMIZE THE RULING PARTY'S WORST EXCESSES. SULLIVAN CONFIDENTIAL > @@@OASYS@@@ CONFIDENTIAL PTQ4191 PAGE 01 HARARE 03439 01 OF 02 170844Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 DODE-00 DS-00 VC-00 TEDE-00 INR-00 VCE-00 NSAE-00 CAEX-01 IRM-00 EPAE-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /003W -------------- 3FB140 170844Z /38 P 170759Z NOV 01 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0300 INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY AMEMBASSY NAIROBI C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 003439 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER BRUSSELS ALSO FOR USEU LONDON FOR GURNEY PARIS FOR NEARY NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER E.O. 12958: DECL. 11/13/11 TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ZI SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR'S DISCUSSION WITH INFLUENTIAL ZANU-PF POLITBURO MEMBER CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF MATT HARRINGTON. REASONS: 1.5 (B) AND (D). CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 03439 01 OF 02 170844Z IMPORTANCE OF POLITICAL DIALOGUE -------------- ¶1. (C) IN A NOVEMBER 12 CONVERSATION WITH THE AMBASSADOR AND POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF, ZANU-PF POLITBURO MEMBER SOLOMON MUJURU SAID HE WAS PROUD OF HIS ROLE IN ENSURING THAT THE SEPTEMBER BY- ELECTION IN CHIKOMBA (HIS HOME BASE) WAS THE MOST PEACEFUL BY- ELECTION SINCE JUNE 2000. HE TOLD US THAT HE HAD HOSTED A BARBECUE AT HIS LOCAL HOME THAT INCLUDED THE RULING PARTY AND MDC PARLIAMENTARY CANDIDATES, AS WELL AS LOCAL OFFICIALS FROM BOTH PARTIES, AT WHICH HE HAD URGED EVERYONE INVOLVED TO CONDUCT A PEACEFUL CAMPAIGN. HE SAID HE WAS WORKING WITH OTHERS TO MINIMIZE INCIDENTS OF POLITICAL VIOLENCE IN THE RUNUP TO THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN EARLY 2002. ¶2. (C) MUJURU EXPRESSED REGRET THAT THE POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME SO CHARGED THAT MANY ZIMBABWEANS DO NOT FEEL FREE TO SHARE THEIR POLITICAL OPINIONS. HE SAID BOTH PARTIES SHOULD BE ABLE TO ENGAGE IN A DIALOGUE ABOUT THE WAY FORWARD, AND HE THOUGHT AN ELECTORAL CODE OF CONDUCT WAS A GOOD IDEA. THE ELECTION CAMPAIGN SHOULD BE A CLEAN FIGHT, AND BOTH SIDES SHOULD BE ABLE TO ACCEPT THE OUTCOME. IT WAS NOT IN ZIMBABWE'S INTEREST FOR POLITICAL PARTIES TO REGARD EACH OTHER AS ENEMIES INSTEAD OF LEGITIMATE OPPONENTS, BUT HE ACKNOWLEDGED THE DIFFICULTY OF BUILDING TRUST BETWEEN ZANU-PF AND THE MDC AND OF CREATING AN ENABLING ENVIRONMENT FOR CONSTRUCTIVE INTER-PARTY TALKS. MUJURU ASSERTED THAT THE MDC WOULD NOW CONTROL PARLIAMENT IF THE "YES" VOTE HAD CARRIED THE DAY IN THE FEBRUARY 2000 REFERENDUM, AS THE DRAFT CONSTITUTION WOULD HAVE ABOLISHED THE 30 SEATS APPOINTED BY THE PRESIDENT AND INCREASED THE NUMBER OF SEATS REPRESENTING URBAN AREAS, THE OPPOSITION PARTY'S STRONGHOLD. HE SAID HIS "FRIENDS IN CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 03439 01 OF 02 170844Z ZANU-PF" QUESTION HIS OPENNESS WITH PEOPLE OF ALL POLITICAL STRIPES. HE JOKED THAT HE TALKS TO THE COMMERCIAL FARMERS SO MUCH THAT WHEN HE SPEAKS WITH PRESIDENT MUGABE, THE FIRST THING THE PRESIDENT ASKS IS WHETHER MUJURU HAS FARMERS WITH HIM. ¶3. (C) MUJURU SAID THE DECISION ON THE TIMING OF THE ELECTION WOULD BE MADE AT ZANU-PF'S CONGRESS IN DECEMBER AND WOULD BE MADE PUBLIC SOON AFTER THAT. ASKED WHO WOULD WIN THE ELECTION, MUJURU SAID ONLY THAT IT WOULD BE EXTREMELY CLOSE. HE PREDICTED THAT THE VICTORIOUS PARTY WOULD GARNER BETWEEN 51 AND 55% OF THE TOTAL VOTE COUNT. (N.B. MUJURU RECENTLY REMARKED TO A BRITISH COLLEAGUE THAT THE RULING PARTY WOULD WIN 55% OF THE VOTE. ASKED WHAT PERCENTAGE IT WOULD GARNER IF MUGABE WERE NOT THE CANDIDATE, MUJURU REPORTEDLY SAID "75%." END N.B.) LINKS WITH MILITARY -------------- ¶4. (C) THE AMBASSADOR ASKED WHETHER MUJURU HAD RETAINED CLOSE LINKS TO MILITARY COMMANDERS SINCE HIS RETIREMENT AS CHIEF OF THE DEFENSE FORCES IN 1992. YES, MUJURU REPLIED, HE STILL HAD GOOD RELATIONS WITH "THE BOYS." THE AMBASSADOR NOTED THAT HE HAD HAD A GOOD MEETING RECENTLY WITH MINISTER OF DEFENSE SEKERAMAYI. MUJURI SAID SEKERAMAYI HAD CALLED HIM IMMEDIATELY AFTERWARDS TO BRIEF HIM ON THAT MEETING, AND THAT THE MINISTER SHARED THE AMBASSADOR'S POSITIVE ASSESSMENT OF THEIR CONVERSATION. FAST TRACK RESETTLEMENT PROGRAM -------------- ¶5. (C) MUJURU WAS NOT HAPPY WITH HOW THE FAST TRACK RESETTLEMENT CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 03439 01 OF 02 170844Z PROGRAM HAS UNFOLDED. THE PARTY, HE CLAIMED, HAD SET OUT VERY CLEAR AND REASONABLE CRITERIA FOR LAND REFORM. THE UNLEASHING OF THE WAR VETERANS, HOWEVER, HAD KNOCKED THE PROGRAM OFF-TRACK, AND IT WAS NOT "WORKING AS WE HAD PLANNED." NOTING THAT HE WAS A WHEAT AND SOYBEAN FARMER HIMSELF, HE EXPRESSED CONCERN THAT RESETTLED FAMILIES WERE NOT BEING PROVIDED WITH SUFFICIENT RESOURCES TO TURN THEIR NEW PROPERTIES INTO SUSTAINABLE ECONOMIC ENTERPRISES. COMMENT -------------- ¶6. (C) ALTHOUGH NOT PARTICULARLY ARTICULATE OR INTELLECTUALLY IMPRESSIVE, GENERAL MUJURU CARRIES SIGNIFICANT BEHIND-THE-SCENES INFLUENCE WITH KEY DECISION-MAKERS, AS EVIDENCED BY SEKERAMAYI'S TELPHONE CALL TO HIM. HE IS, IN FACT, CONSIDERED A POTENTIAL KINGMAKER BY MANY OBSERVERS. IN ADDITION, SOME OF THE MILITARY'S KEY COMMANDERS SERVED UNDER MUJURU, RETAIN STRONG LOYALTIES TO HIM, AND WOULD FOLLOW HIS LEAD IF THE DETERIORATION OF THE POLITICAL EVENTS HERE SPARKED SOME DEGREE OF MILITARY INVOLVEMENT. CONSEQUENTLY, MUJURU IS REPORTEDLY ONE OF THE FEW PEOPLE WHOSE CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ4190 PAGE 01 HARARE 03439 02 OF 02 170844Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 DODE-00 DS-00 VC-00 TEDE-00 INR-00 VCE-00 NSAE-00 IRM-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /002W -------------- 3FB143 170844Z /38 P 170759Z NOV 01 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0301 INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY AMEMBASSY NAIROBI C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 003439 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER BRUSSELS ALSO FOR USEU LONDON FOR GURNEY PARIS FOR NEARY NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER E.O. 12958: DECL. 11/13/11 TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ZI SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR'S DISCUSSION WITH INFLUENTIAL ZANU-PF POLITBURO MEMBER ADVICE PRESIDENT MUGABE TAKES SERIOUSLY. GIVEN HIS POSITIVE ROLE IN THE CHIKOMBA BY-ELECTION AND HIS MODERATE, NO NONSENSE VIEWS ON ISSUES SUCH AS POLITICAL DIALOGUE, WE BELIEVE HE CAN, AND IS CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 03439 02 OF 02 170844Z TRYING TO, MINIMIZE THE RULING PARTY'S WORST EXCESSES. SULLIVAN CONFIDENTIAL >