POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS UNTIL ELECTIONS:

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 003404 SIPDIS AF FOR AF A/S KANSTEINER, DAS BELLAMY AND AF/S NSC FOR AFRICA SR DIR FRAZIER AID FOR AFR A/ADM BRUSSELS ALSO FOR USEU LONDON FOR GURNEY PARIS FOR NEARY E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/12/2011 TAGS: PREL PGOV ZI SUBJECT: POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS UNTIL ELECTIONS: KEEP THE PRESSURE ON AND LEAVE ROOM FOR MISTAKES REF: (A)STATE 197909, (B)HARARE 3303 CLASSIFIED BY JOSEPH G. SULLIVAN FOR REASONS 1.5 B/D ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: THE MUGABE GOVERNMENT HAS INTENSIFIED ITS VIOLENCE AND EFFORTS TO DOMINATE ELECTION PROCEDURES AND HAS NOT BEEN DETERRED BY THREATS OF SANCTIONS. HARSH METHODS, NOTWITHSTANDING, ZANU-PF IS STILL VERY HARD- PRESSED BY A RESILIENT MDC OPPOSITION, BOLSTERED BY ZIMBABWE'S CONTINUING ECONOMIC DECLINE. UNDER DOMESTIC AND INTERNATIONAL PRESSURE, THE GOZ HAS MADE MANY MISTAKES AND COULD MAKE MORE. WE RECOMMEND LAYING DOWN CLEAR MARKERS OF WHAT IS NECESSARY FOR US TO CONFER LEGITIMACY UPON THE ELECTION RESULT AND LEVERAGING KEY AFRICANS INTO PRESSING FOR SUCH FREE AND FAIR CONDITIONS. IF THE GOZ FAILS TO DELIVER A CREDIBLE ELECTION AND DEPRIVES THE OPPOSITION OF A CHANCE OF VICTORY, THE US, EU, AND THE COMMONWEALTH SHOULD REACT QUICKLY TO DECLARE THE PROCESS UNFREE AND UNFAIR. SUPPORT OF KEY AFRICANS, PARTICULARLY THE SOUTH AFRICANS AND THE NIGERIANS, FOR OUR ACTIONS WILL BE CRITICAL. ¶2. (C) IN THE MONTHS AHEAD, TONE WILL BE IMPORTANT. WE WANT TO BE FIRM IN DEFENDING THE HUMAN AND CIVIL RIGHTS OF THE ZIMBABWEAN PEOPLE, BUT WISH TO DO IT IN A WAY THAT PUTS US ON THE SIDE OF THE PEOPLE AND AVOIDS THE IMAGE OF BIG POWER DICTATION. WE ALSO WANT TO AVOID CONDEMNATION FOR ITS OWN SAKE AND MAKE CLEAR REPEATEDLY WHAT STEPS WE SEEK FROM THE GOZ. THIS TONE MAINTAINS CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 03404 01 OF 03 150728Z THE PRESSURE FOR CHANGE AND MAKES GAINING AFRICAN SUPPORT EASIER. WE ALSO INTEND TO KEEP PUBLICIZING OUR OWN EFFORTS ON BEHALF OF THE ZIMBABWEAN PEOPLE IN THE AREAS OF HIV/AIDS AND IN SELF-HELP PROJECTS TO MAKE IT CLEAR THAT OUR DIFFICULTIES ARE WITH THE GOZ AND NOT THE PEOPLE. END SUMMARY ¶3. (C) PRESIDENT ROBERT MUGABE AND HIS ZANU-PF GOVERNMENT HAVE RECENTLY INTENSIFIED THEIR VIOLENCE AND INTIMIDATION OF OPPOSITION AND INDEPENDENT MEDIA AND THEIR EFFORTS TO CONTROL AND MANIPULATE THE 2002 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION PROCEDURES. THEY HAVE NOT BEEN DETERRED BY THE THREAT OF COMMONWEALTH, EU, US OR OTHER SANCTIONS, AND EVEN LESS BY THE ECONOMIC AND OTHER HARM THEY ARE CAUSING THEIR COUNTRY IN THEIR ALL-OUT EFFORT TO STAY IN POWER. THE GOVERNMENT HAS NOT HESITATED TO LAMBASTE ANY AND EVERY FOREIGN GOVERNMENT OR ZIMBABWEAN WHO GETS IN THEIR WAY AND HAVE FEW FRIENDS LEFT OUTSIDE THEIR TIGHT CIRCLE OF INSIDERS. ¶4. (C) FOR THE SAME REASON THE THREAT OF SANCTIONS HAS NOT AFFECTED THE MUGABE GOVERNMENT'S ACTIONS, THE IMPOSITION OF SANCTIONS IS UNLIKELY TO DETER IT FROM THE WIN-AT-ALL-COSTS STRATEGY. PRESIDENT MUGABE AND HIS CLOSEST ADVISERS OBVIOUSLY CARE LITTLE ABOUT LOSS OF ASSISTANCE TO THE NATION AND APPEAR TO BELIEVE THAT THERE IS NO DAMAGE THAT CAN COME FROM PERSONALIZED FINANCIAL OR TRAVEL SANCTIONS WHICH EQUATES TO MUGABE'S LOSS OF THE PRESIDENCY. ON THE OTHER HAND, WHAT DOES MATTER TO PRESIDENT MUGABE IS THE INTERNATIONAL AND DOMESTIC LEGITIMACY, WHICH COMES FROM AN ELECTION CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 03404 01 OF 03 150728Z VICTORY. FOR THAT REASON, WE BELIEVE THE EFFORT TO LAY DOWN A CLEAR MARKER OF WHAT ELECTION STANDARDS ARE NECESSARY (REFS A AND B) TO OBTAIN INTERNATIONAL LEGITIMACY AND THE DOMESTIC LEGITIMACY THIS HELPS CONFER IS AN IMPORTANT EXERCISE. ¶5. (C) THE ABOVE NOTWITHSTANDING, THE ZIMBABWEAN GOVERNMENT MAY NOT RESPOND POSITIVELY TO MEET INTERNATIONAL STANDARDS, ASSUMING PERHAPS THAT PROTECTION BY FELLOW AFRICAN STATES, SOME COSMETIC OBSERVATION NEAR THE END OF THE ELECTIONS AND POST- ELECTION SIGNALS OF OPENNESS WILL WIPE AWAY UNPLEASANT MEMORIES. MUGABE AND HIS INNER CIRCLE APPEAR TO BELIEVE THAT THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH A GOZ, WHICH RESULTS FROM AN ELECTION CARRIED OUT ON ZANU-PF TERMS. OFFENSES PILE UP -------------- ¶6. (C) IN RECENT WEEKS, THE ZIMBABWEAN FOREIGN MINISTER STUCK HIS FINGER SO BLATANTLY INTO THE EU'S EYE THAT THE EU BEGAN ARTICLE 96 CONSULTATIONS. THE GOZ ALSO FAILED CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ7348 PAGE 01 HARARE 03404 02 OF 03 150729Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 EVG-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 INL-00 DODE-00 DS-00 EUR-00 VC-00 TEDE-00 INR-00 LAB-01 VCE-00 M-00 DCP-01 NSAE-00 NSCE-00 IRM-00 SSO-00 SS-00 USIE-00 BBG-00 IIP-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /004W -------------- 3E7DAD 150729Z /38 O 150644Z NOV 01 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0280 INFO AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS PRIORITY AMEMBASSY ABUJA PRIORITY AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY AMEMBASSY PARIS PRIORITY AMEMBASSY PRETORIA PRIORITY C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 03 HARARE 003404 SIPDIS AF FOR AF A/S KANSTEINER, DAS BELLAMY AND AF/S NSC FOR AFRICA SR DIR FRAZIER AID FOR AFR A/ADM BRUSSELS ALSO FOR USEU LONDON FOR GURNEY PARIS FOR NEARY E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/12/2011 TAGS: PREL PGOV ZI SUBJECT: POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS UNTIL ELECTIONS: CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 03404 02 OF 03 150729Z KEEP THE PRESSURE ON AND LEAVE ROOM FOR MISTAKES TO GET A PASSING GRADE ON ITS ABUJA COMPLIANCE AND RECEIVES A UNDP TEAM THIS WEEK TO MEASURE ABUJA COMPLIANCE INDEPENDENTLY. THE ZIMS CONTINUE TO STIFF THE SADC SUMMIT FOLLOW-UP COMMITTEE, PUTTING OFF ITS VISIT INDEFINITELY AND IGNORING CONCERNS RAISED BY SADC PRESIDENTS IN SEPTEMBER. INTERNALLY, THE GOVERNMENT HAS STEPPED UP ITS HARASSMENT OF THE INDEPENDENT MEDIA, MOST RECENTLY BY THE ARREST AND OVERNIGHT DETENTION OF THE "DAILY NEWS" EDITOR. THE GOZ HAS ALSO ENCOURAGED A THREATENING "WAR VETERANS" DEMONSTRATION OUTSIDE MDC HEADQUARTERS AND A CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE ORGANIZATION EFFORT TO SEARCH MDC HQ IN RESPONSE TO THE DISAPPEARANCE OF A WAR VETS' LEADERS. GOVERNMENT EFFORTS TO DOMINATE CONTROL OF THE ELECTIONS PROGRESSED WITH THE ANNOUNCEMENT THAT THE GOVERNMENT INTENDS TO BAR DOMESTIC NGO'S FROM VOTER EDUCATION OR ELECTION MONITORING AND TO INVITE ONLY SELECTED INTERNATIONAL OBSERVERS CLOSER TO ELECTIONS. ¶7. (C) EVEN THE FOOD EMERGENCY HAS BEEN BADLY MISHANDLED. WHEN AFTER MONTHS OF DENYING ANY FOOD SHORTAGE, THE GOVERNMENT FINALLY ISSUED AN INTERNATIONAL APPEAL FOR HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE, AGRICULTURE MINISTE MADE REFUSED TO WAIVE RESTRICTION ON IMPORTATION OF GENETICALLY MODIFIED GRAIN. INFORMATION MINISTER JONATHAN MOYO WENT FURTHER, WARNING THAT NGO'S WOULD NOT BE PERMITTED TO ASSIST IN FOOD ASSISTANCE BECAUSE OF THEIR SUSPECTED SYMPATHIES FOR THE MDC AND THAT DONORS RESPONDING TO THE FOOD APPEAL AHOULD JUST GIVE THE CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 03404 02 OF 03 150729Z ASSISTANCE TO THE GOVERNMENT TO DISTRIBUTE. IN EFFECT, MOYO IS DECLARING GOZ WILLINGNESS TO HOLD HOSTAGE THE HUNGER OF THE MOST VULNERABLE ZIMBABWEANS FOR ENHANCED ELECTORAL LEVERAGE. ¶8. (C) WHILE THE GOZ HAS FOR THE MOST PART REFRAINED FROM DIRECT PUBLIC CRITICISM OF THE US, IT BELIEVES THAT THE USG IS ENGAGED IN SUPPORT OF THE MDC AND SUBVERSION OF THE ZANU-PF AND RECENTLY REFUSED WORK PERMITS TO A GROUP OF PEACE CORPS VOLUNTEERS IN AN APPARENT EFFORT TO LIMIT INTERNATIONAL PRESENCE IN THE PRE-ELECTION PERIOD. WE BELIEVE IT LIKELY THAT THE GOZ WILL STEP UP ITS CRITICISM OF THE USG AND PERHAPS EXPEL OR OTHERWISE ACT AGAINST OUR EMBASSY STAFF IN THE MONTHS AHEAD. EVEN PARANOIDS HAVE ENEMIES -------------- ¶9. (C) WHILE ZANU-PF DOES HAVE MANY ENEMIES, FOREIGN AND DOMESTIC, ITS ACTIONS ARE THOSE OF A PARANOID FLAILING ABOUT AT REAL AND IMAGINED ENEMIES AT HOME AND ABROAD. IN ITS FLAILING, THE GOZ IS BUYING ITSELF A NEW ENEMY OR MORE PER DAY. THE ARREST OF THE DAILY NEWS EDITOR WHO IS ABOUT TO WIN THE COMMITTEE FOR THE PROTECTION OF JOURNALISTS' AWARD IS A CASE IN POINT. AND ALL THE GOVERNMENT'S ACTIONS TO DATE HAVE BOUGHT IT ONLY A STATISTICAL DEAD HEAT IN THE LATEST PUBLIC OPINION POLL OF UNCERTAIN RELIABILITY. MORE ABUSES LIKELY -------------- CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 03404 02 OF 03 150729Z 10.(C) CONTINUED PRESSURE INSIDE AND OUTSIDE ZIMBABWE HAS ALREADY INDUCED GOZ MISTAKES AND COULD LEAD TO FURTHER MISCALCULATIONS AND ERRORS. ON THE EVE OF A UNDP MISSION TO ASSESS COMPLIANCE WITH THE ABUJA ACCORD ON LAND REFORM, THE GOVERNMENT BROKE THE ABUJA AGREEMENT FLAGRANTLY BY LEGISLATING THE CONFISCATION OF ALL DESIGNATED LANDS AND SHORT-CIRCUITING ALL COURT APPEALS. IN ORDER TO DISPENSE WITH ITS OBLIGATIONS UNDER THE NIGERIAN-BROKERED AGREEMENT, THE GOZ MIGHT EVENTUALLY BREAK WITH THE ABUJA PROCESS, UNDOUBTEDLY BLAMING THE UK FOR ITS ACTIONS. MASSIVE RESORT TO FORCE, TARGETED ASSASSINATIONS OF OPPOSITION FIGURES OR DECLARATION OF A STATE OF EMERGENCY ARE ALSO POSSIBILITIES, ANY OF WHICH WOULD RAISE MAJOR LEGITIMACY ISSUES IN ZIMBABWE AND THE REGION. POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS -------------- ¶11. (C) ANY SANCTIONS THE US MIGHT APPLY UNILATERALLY BEFORE ELECTIONS ARE UNLIKELY TO MODIFY ZANU-PF BEHAVIOR AND HAVE THE ADDED DISADVANTAGE OF PROVIDING A POTENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ7349 PAGE 01 HARARE 03404 03 OF 03 150729Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 EVG-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 INL-00 DODE-00 DS-00 EUR-00 VC-00 TEDE-00 INR-00 LAB-01 VCE-00 M-00 DCP-01 NSAE-00 NSCE-00 IRM-00 SSO-00 SS-00 USIE-00 BBG-00 IIP-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /004W -------------- 3E7DB9 150729Z /38 O 150644Z NOV 01 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0281 INFO AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS PRIORITY AMEMBASSY ABUJA PRIORITY AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY AMEMBASSY PARIS PRIORITY AMEMBASSY PRETORIA PRIORITY C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 03 HARARE 003404 SIPDIS AF FOR AF A/S KANSTEINER, DAS BELLAMY AND AF/S NSC FOR AFRICA SR DIR FRAZIER AID FOR AFR A/ADM BRUSSELS ALSO FOR USEU LONDON FOR GURNEY PARIS FOR NEARY E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/12/2011 TAGS: PREL PGOV ZI SUBJECT: POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS UNTIL ELECTIONS: CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 03404 03 OF 03 150729Z KEEP THE PRESSURE ON AND LEAVE ROOM FOR MISTAKES EXCUSE FOR ABORTING ELECTIONS WHICH THE MDC STILL HAS A REASONABLE CHANCE OF WINNING. MOREOVER, SADC, THE COMMONWEALTH AND OTHER AFRICANS, I.E. THE NIGERIANS, WOULD LIKELY WIND UP SIDING WITH THE ZIMBABWEANS IN A SANCTIONS DISPUTE WITH THE "DEVELOPED WORLD." INSTEAD, WE RECOMMEND LAYING DOWN CLEAR MARKERS OF WHAT IS NECESSARY FOR US TO CONFER LEGITIMACY UPON THE ELECTION RESULT AND SEEKING TO LEVERAGE KEY AFRICANS INTO PRESSING FOR SUCH FREE AND FAIR CONDITIONS. (THE ZIMBABWE DEMOCRACY ACT, IF PASSED BY CONGRESS, SHOULD BE PRESENTED AS A WARNING AND AN OPPORTUNITY FOR THE GOZ TO CHOOSE BETWEEN ITS INCENTIVES AND ITS SANCTIONS.) IF THE GOZ FAILS TO DELIVER A CREDIBLE ELECTION PROCESS AND THE OPPOSITION IS DEPRIVED OF A FAIR CHANCE AT VICTORY BY THESE METHODS, THE US, THE EU AND THE COMMONWEALTH NEED TO BE PREPARED TO REACT STRONGLY AND QUICKLY AFTER THE ELECTION TO DECLARE THE PROCESS UNFREE AND UNFAIR. IT WILL ALSO BE CRITICAL TO HAVE KEY AFRICANS, PARTICULARLY SOUTH AFRICA AND NIGERIA ALONGSIDE US IN THIS DECLARATION. WHILE SOME MIGHT CAUTION THAT SUCH A DECLARATION WILL SET OFF AN INTERNAL CRISIS, WE BELIEVE THE ABSENCE OF A CLEAN AND CREDIBLE RESULT INTERNALLY WILL PROVOKE AN INTERNAL CRISIS ON ITS OWN. TONE IS IMPORTANT -------------- ¶12. (C) WE WANT TO BE FIRM IN DEFENDING THE PEOPLE OF ZIMBABWE, THEIR HUMAN RIGHTS, MEDIA FREEDOM AND RIGHT TO CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 03404 03 OF 03 150729Z FREE AND FAIR ELECTIONS IN THE MONTHS AHEAD. IT IS ALMOST AS IMPORTANT THAT WE MAINTAIN THE IMAGE OF DEFENDER OF JUSTICE AND AVOID THE IMAGE OF BIG POWER DICTATION. IT IS ALSO IMPORTANT THAT WE CONTINUE TO PRESS FOR CHANGE IN GOVERNMENT BEHAVIOR RATHER THAN CONCEDE THAT THERE IS NO POSSIBILITY OF FOR IMPROVEMENT. THE ABOVE TONE IS IMPORTANT FOR GAINING AFRICAN SUPPORT AND UNDERSTANDING ON ZIMBABWE AND TO KEEP THE PRESSURE ON THE GOZ. FOR THESE REASONS, WE INTEND TO CONTINUE PUBLICIZING PUBLIC ACTIVITIES IN SUPPORT OF THE ZIMBABWEAN PEOPLE, SEEKING MAXIMUM PUBLICITY FOR SELF- HELP PROGRAM GRANTS, HIV-AIDS AND OTHER ACTIVITIES ON BEHALF OF THE PEOPLE. SULLIVAN CONFIDENTIAL >