POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS UNTIL ELECTIONS:

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 003404

SIPDIS

AF FOR AF A/S KANSTEINER, DAS BELLAMY AND AF/S
NSC FOR AFRICA SR DIR FRAZIER
AID FOR AFR A/ADM
BRUSSELS ALSO FOR USEU
LONDON FOR GURNEY
PARIS FOR NEARY

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/12/2011
TAGS: PREL PGOV ZI
SUBJECT: POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS UNTIL ELECTIONS:
KEEP THE PRESSURE ON AND LEAVE ROOM FOR MISTAKES

REF: (A)STATE 197909, (B)HARARE 3303

CLASSIFIED BY JOSEPH G. SULLIVAN FOR REASONS 1.5 B/D


1. (C) SUMMARY: THE MUGABE GOVERNMENT HAS INTENSIFIED
ITS VIOLENCE AND EFFORTS TO DOMINATE ELECTION PROCEDURES
AND HAS NOT BEEN DETERRED BY THREATS OF SANCTIONS. HARSH
METHODS, NOTWITHSTANDING, ZANU-PF IS STILL VERY HARD-
PRESSED BY A RESILIENT MDC OPPOSITION, BOLSTERED BY
ZIMBABWE'S CONTINUING ECONOMIC DECLINE. UNDER DOMESTIC
AND INTERNATIONAL PRESSURE, THE GOZ HAS MADE MANY
MISTAKES AND COULD MAKE MORE. WE RECOMMEND LAYING DOWN
CLEAR MARKERS OF WHAT IS NECESSARY FOR US TO CONFER
LEGITIMACY UPON THE ELECTION RESULT AND LEVERAGING KEY
AFRICANS INTO PRESSING FOR SUCH FREE AND FAIR
CONDITIONS. IF THE GOZ FAILS TO DELIVER A CREDIBLE
ELECTION AND DEPRIVES THE OPPOSITION OF A CHANCE OF
VICTORY, THE US, EU, AND THE COMMONWEALTH SHOULD REACT
QUICKLY TO DECLARE THE PROCESS UNFREE AND UNFAIR.
SUPPORT OF KEY AFRICANS, PARTICULARLY THE SOUTH AFRICANS
AND THE NIGERIANS, FOR OUR ACTIONS WILL BE CRITICAL.


2. (C) IN THE MONTHS AHEAD, TONE WILL BE IMPORTANT. WE
WANT TO BE FIRM IN DEFENDING THE HUMAN AND CIVIL RIGHTS
OF THE ZIMBABWEAN PEOPLE, BUT WISH TO DO IT IN A WAY
THAT PUTS US ON THE SIDE OF THE PEOPLE AND AVOIDS THE
IMAGE OF BIG POWER DICTATION. WE ALSO WANT TO AVOID
CONDEMNATION FOR ITS OWN SAKE AND MAKE CLEAR REPEATEDLY
WHAT STEPS WE SEEK FROM THE GOZ. THIS TONE MAINTAINS
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PAGE 03 HARARE 03404 01 OF 03 150728Z
THE PRESSURE FOR CHANGE AND MAKES GAINING AFRICAN
SUPPORT EASIER. WE ALSO INTEND TO KEEP PUBLICIZING OUR
OWN EFFORTS ON BEHALF OF THE ZIMBABWEAN PEOPLE IN THE
AREAS OF HIV/AIDS AND IN SELF-HELP PROJECTS TO MAKE IT
CLEAR THAT OUR DIFFICULTIES ARE WITH THE GOZ AND NOT THE
PEOPLE. END SUMMARY


3. (C) PRESIDENT ROBERT MUGABE AND HIS ZANU-PF
GOVERNMENT HAVE RECENTLY INTENSIFIED THEIR VIOLENCE AND
INTIMIDATION OF OPPOSITION AND INDEPENDENT MEDIA AND
THEIR EFFORTS TO CONTROL AND MANIPULATE THE 2002
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION PROCEDURES. THEY HAVE NOT BEEN
DETERRED BY THE THREAT OF COMMONWEALTH, EU, US OR OTHER
SANCTIONS, AND EVEN LESS BY THE ECONOMIC AND OTHER HARM
THEY ARE CAUSING THEIR COUNTRY IN THEIR ALL-OUT EFFORT
TO STAY IN POWER. THE GOVERNMENT HAS NOT HESITATED TO
LAMBASTE ANY AND EVERY FOREIGN GOVERNMENT OR ZIMBABWEAN
WHO GETS IN THEIR WAY AND HAVE FEW FRIENDS LEFT OUTSIDE
THEIR TIGHT CIRCLE OF INSIDERS.


4. (C) FOR THE SAME REASON THE THREAT OF SANCTIONS HAS
NOT AFFECTED THE MUGABE GOVERNMENT'S ACTIONS, THE
IMPOSITION OF SANCTIONS IS UNLIKELY TO DETER IT FROM THE
WIN-AT-ALL-COSTS STRATEGY. PRESIDENT MUGABE AND HIS
CLOSEST ADVISERS OBVIOUSLY CARE LITTLE ABOUT LOSS OF
ASSISTANCE TO THE NATION AND APPEAR TO BELIEVE THAT
THERE IS NO DAMAGE THAT CAN COME FROM PERSONALIZED
FINANCIAL OR TRAVEL SANCTIONS WHICH EQUATES TO MUGABE'S
LOSS OF THE PRESIDENCY. ON THE OTHER HAND, WHAT DOES
MATTER TO PRESIDENT MUGABE IS THE INTERNATIONAL AND
DOMESTIC LEGITIMACY, WHICH COMES FROM AN ELECTION
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PAGE 04 HARARE 03404 01 OF 03 150728Z
VICTORY. FOR THAT REASON, WE BELIEVE THE EFFORT TO LAY
DOWN A CLEAR MARKER OF WHAT ELECTION STANDARDS ARE
NECESSARY (REFS A AND B) TO OBTAIN INTERNATIONAL
LEGITIMACY AND THE DOMESTIC LEGITIMACY THIS HELPS CONFER
IS AN IMPORTANT EXERCISE.


5. (C) THE ABOVE NOTWITHSTANDING, THE ZIMBABWEAN
GOVERNMENT MAY NOT RESPOND POSITIVELY TO MEET
INTERNATIONAL STANDARDS, ASSUMING PERHAPS THAT
PROTECTION BY FELLOW AFRICAN STATES, SOME COSMETIC
OBSERVATION NEAR THE END OF THE ELECTIONS AND POST-
ELECTION SIGNALS OF OPENNESS WILL WIPE AWAY UNPLEASANT
MEMORIES. MUGABE AND HIS INNER CIRCLE APPEAR TO
BELIEVE THAT THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY WILL HAVE TO
DEAL WITH A GOZ, WHICH RESULTS FROM AN ELECTION
CARRIED OUT ON ZANU-PF TERMS.

OFFENSES PILE UP
--------------


6. (C) IN RECENT WEEKS, THE ZIMBABWEAN FOREIGN MINISTER
STUCK HIS FINGER SO BLATANTLY INTO THE EU'S EYE THAT THE
EU BEGAN ARTICLE 96 CONSULTATIONS. THE GOZ ALSO FAILED

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PAGE 01 HARARE 03404 02 OF 03 150729Z
ACTION AF-00

INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 EVG-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 INL-00
DODE-00 DS-00 EUR-00 VC-00 TEDE-00 INR-00 LAB-01
VCE-00 M-00 DCP-01 NSAE-00 NSCE-00 IRM-00 SSO-00
SS-00 USIE-00 BBG-00 IIP-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02 NFAT-00
SAS-00 /004W
-------------- 3E7DAD 150729Z /38
O 150644Z NOV 01
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0280
INFO AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY ABUJA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY PARIS PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY PRETORIA PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 03 HARARE 003404

SIPDIS

AF FOR AF A/S KANSTEINER, DAS BELLAMY AND AF/S
NSC FOR AFRICA SR DIR FRAZIER
AID FOR AFR A/ADM
BRUSSELS ALSO FOR USEU
LONDON FOR GURNEY
PARIS FOR NEARY

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/12/2011
TAGS: PREL PGOV ZI
SUBJECT: POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS UNTIL ELECTIONS:
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02 HARARE 03404 02 OF 03 150729Z
KEEP THE PRESSURE ON AND LEAVE ROOM FOR MISTAKES

TO GET A PASSING GRADE ON ITS ABUJA COMPLIANCE AND
RECEIVES A UNDP TEAM THIS WEEK TO MEASURE ABUJA
COMPLIANCE INDEPENDENTLY. THE ZIMS CONTINUE TO STIFF
THE SADC SUMMIT FOLLOW-UP COMMITTEE, PUTTING OFF ITS
VISIT INDEFINITELY AND IGNORING CONCERNS RAISED BY SADC
PRESIDENTS IN SEPTEMBER. INTERNALLY, THE GOVERNMENT HAS
STEPPED UP ITS HARASSMENT OF THE INDEPENDENT MEDIA, MOST
RECENTLY BY THE ARREST AND OVERNIGHT DETENTION OF THE
"DAILY NEWS" EDITOR. THE GOZ HAS ALSO ENCOURAGED A
THREATENING "WAR VETERANS" DEMONSTRATION OUTSIDE MDC
HEADQUARTERS AND A CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE ORGANIZATION
EFFORT TO SEARCH MDC HQ IN RESPONSE TO THE DISAPPEARANCE
OF A WAR VETS' LEADERS. GOVERNMENT EFFORTS TO DOMINATE
CONTROL OF THE ELECTIONS PROGRESSED WITH THE
ANNOUNCEMENT THAT THE GOVERNMENT INTENDS TO BAR DOMESTIC
NGO'S FROM VOTER EDUCATION OR ELECTION MONITORING AND TO
INVITE ONLY SELECTED INTERNATIONAL OBSERVERS CLOSER TO
ELECTIONS.


7. (C) EVEN THE FOOD EMERGENCY HAS BEEN BADLY
MISHANDLED. WHEN AFTER MONTHS OF DENYING ANY FOOD
SHORTAGE, THE GOVERNMENT FINALLY ISSUED AN INTERNATIONAL
APPEAL FOR HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE, AGRICULTURE MINISTE
MADE REFUSED TO WAIVE RESTRICTION ON IMPORTATION OF
GENETICALLY MODIFIED GRAIN. INFORMATION MINISTER
JONATHAN MOYO WENT FURTHER, WARNING THAT NGO'S WOULD NOT
BE PERMITTED TO ASSIST IN FOOD ASSISTANCE BECAUSE OF
THEIR SUSPECTED SYMPATHIES FOR THE MDC AND THAT DONORS
RESPONDING TO THE FOOD APPEAL AHOULD JUST GIVE THE
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PAGE 03 HARARE 03404 02 OF 03 150729Z
ASSISTANCE TO THE GOVERNMENT TO DISTRIBUTE. IN EFFECT,
MOYO IS DECLARING GOZ WILLINGNESS TO HOLD HOSTAGE THE
HUNGER OF THE MOST VULNERABLE ZIMBABWEANS FOR ENHANCED
ELECTORAL LEVERAGE.


8. (C) WHILE THE GOZ HAS FOR THE MOST PART REFRAINED FROM
DIRECT PUBLIC CRITICISM OF THE US, IT BELIEVES THAT THE
USG IS ENGAGED IN SUPPORT OF THE MDC AND SUBVERSION OF
THE ZANU-PF AND RECENTLY REFUSED WORK PERMITS TO A GROUP
OF PEACE CORPS VOLUNTEERS IN AN APPARENT EFFORT TO LIMIT
INTERNATIONAL PRESENCE IN THE PRE-ELECTION PERIOD.
WE BELIEVE IT LIKELY THAT THE GOZ WILL STEP UP ITS
CRITICISM OF THE USG AND PERHAPS EXPEL OR OTHERWISE ACT
AGAINST OUR EMBASSY STAFF IN THE MONTHS AHEAD.

EVEN PARANOIDS HAVE ENEMIES
--------------


9. (C) WHILE ZANU-PF DOES HAVE MANY ENEMIES, FOREIGN AND
DOMESTIC, ITS ACTIONS ARE THOSE OF A PARANOID FLAILING
ABOUT AT REAL AND IMAGINED ENEMIES AT HOME AND ABROAD.
IN ITS FLAILING, THE GOZ IS BUYING ITSELF A NEW ENEMY OR
MORE PER DAY. THE ARREST OF THE DAILY NEWS EDITOR WHO
IS ABOUT TO WIN THE COMMITTEE FOR THE PROTECTION OF
JOURNALISTS' AWARD IS A CASE IN POINT. AND ALL THE
GOVERNMENT'S ACTIONS TO DATE HAVE BOUGHT IT ONLY A
STATISTICAL DEAD HEAT IN THE LATEST PUBLIC OPINION POLL
OF UNCERTAIN RELIABILITY.

MORE ABUSES LIKELY
--------------
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PAGE 04 HARARE 03404 02 OF 03 150729Z

10.(C) CONTINUED PRESSURE INSIDE AND OUTSIDE ZIMBABWE
HAS ALREADY INDUCED GOZ MISTAKES AND COULD LEAD TO
FURTHER MISCALCULATIONS AND ERRORS. ON THE EVE OF A
UNDP MISSION TO ASSESS COMPLIANCE WITH THE ABUJA ACCORD
ON LAND REFORM, THE GOVERNMENT BROKE THE ABUJA AGREEMENT
FLAGRANTLY BY LEGISLATING THE CONFISCATION OF ALL
DESIGNATED LANDS AND SHORT-CIRCUITING ALL COURT APPEALS.
IN ORDER TO DISPENSE WITH ITS OBLIGATIONS UNDER THE
NIGERIAN-BROKERED AGREEMENT, THE GOZ MIGHT EVENTUALLY
BREAK WITH THE ABUJA PROCESS, UNDOUBTEDLY BLAMING THE UK
FOR ITS ACTIONS. MASSIVE RESORT TO FORCE, TARGETED
ASSASSINATIONS OF OPPOSITION FIGURES OR DECLARATION OF A
STATE OF EMERGENCY ARE ALSO POSSIBILITIES, ANY OF WHICH
WOULD RAISE MAJOR LEGITIMACY ISSUES IN ZIMBABWE AND THE
REGION.

POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS
--------------


11. (C) ANY SANCTIONS THE US MIGHT APPLY UNILATERALLY
BEFORE ELECTIONS ARE UNLIKELY TO MODIFY ZANU-PF BEHAVIOR
AND HAVE THE ADDED DISADVANTAGE OF PROVIDING A POTENTIAL

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CONFIDENTIAL PTQ7349

PAGE 01 HARARE 03404 03 OF 03 150729Z
ACTION AF-00

INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 EVG-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 INL-00
DODE-00 DS-00 EUR-00 VC-00 TEDE-00 INR-00 LAB-01
VCE-00 M-00 DCP-01 NSAE-00 NSCE-00 IRM-00 SSO-00
SS-00 USIE-00 BBG-00 IIP-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02 NFAT-00
SAS-00 /004W
-------------- 3E7DB9 150729Z /38
O 150644Z NOV 01
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0281
INFO AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY ABUJA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY PARIS PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY PRETORIA PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 03 HARARE 003404

SIPDIS

AF FOR AF A/S KANSTEINER, DAS BELLAMY AND AF/S
NSC FOR AFRICA SR DIR FRAZIER
AID FOR AFR A/ADM
BRUSSELS ALSO FOR USEU
LONDON FOR GURNEY
PARIS FOR NEARY

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/12/2011
TAGS: PREL PGOV ZI
SUBJECT: POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS UNTIL ELECTIONS:
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02 HARARE 03404 03 OF 03 150729Z
KEEP THE PRESSURE ON AND LEAVE ROOM FOR MISTAKES

EXCUSE FOR ABORTING ELECTIONS WHICH THE MDC STILL HAS A
REASONABLE CHANCE OF WINNING. MOREOVER, SADC, THE
COMMONWEALTH AND OTHER AFRICANS, I.E. THE NIGERIANS,
WOULD LIKELY WIND UP SIDING WITH THE ZIMBABWEANS IN A
SANCTIONS DISPUTE WITH THE "DEVELOPED WORLD." INSTEAD,
WE RECOMMEND LAYING DOWN CLEAR MARKERS OF WHAT IS
NECESSARY FOR US TO CONFER LEGITIMACY UPON THE ELECTION
RESULT AND SEEKING TO LEVERAGE KEY AFRICANS INTO
PRESSING FOR SUCH FREE AND FAIR CONDITIONS. (THE
ZIMBABWE DEMOCRACY ACT, IF PASSED BY CONGRESS, SHOULD BE
PRESENTED AS A WARNING AND AN OPPORTUNITY FOR THE GOZ TO
CHOOSE BETWEEN ITS INCENTIVES AND ITS SANCTIONS.) IF
THE GOZ FAILS TO DELIVER A CREDIBLE ELECTION PROCESS AND
THE OPPOSITION IS DEPRIVED OF A FAIR CHANCE AT VICTORY
BY THESE METHODS, THE US, THE EU AND THE COMMONWEALTH
NEED TO BE PREPARED TO REACT STRONGLY AND QUICKLY AFTER
THE ELECTION TO DECLARE THE PROCESS UNFREE AND UNFAIR.
IT WILL ALSO BE CRITICAL TO HAVE KEY AFRICANS,
PARTICULARLY SOUTH AFRICA AND NIGERIA ALONGSIDE US IN
THIS DECLARATION. WHILE SOME MIGHT CAUTION THAT SUCH A
DECLARATION WILL SET OFF AN INTERNAL CRISIS, WE BELIEVE
THE ABSENCE OF A CLEAN AND CREDIBLE RESULT INTERNALLY
WILL PROVOKE AN INTERNAL CRISIS ON ITS OWN.

TONE IS IMPORTANT
--------------

12. (C) WE WANT TO BE FIRM IN DEFENDING THE PEOPLE OF
ZIMBABWE, THEIR HUMAN RIGHTS, MEDIA FREEDOM AND RIGHT TO
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PAGE 03 HARARE 03404 03 OF 03 150729Z
FREE AND FAIR ELECTIONS IN THE MONTHS AHEAD. IT IS
ALMOST AS IMPORTANT THAT WE MAINTAIN THE IMAGE OF
DEFENDER OF JUSTICE AND AVOID THE IMAGE OF BIG POWER
DICTATION. IT IS ALSO IMPORTANT THAT WE CONTINUE TO
PRESS FOR CHANGE IN GOVERNMENT BEHAVIOR RATHER THAN
CONCEDE THAT THERE IS NO POSSIBILITY OF FOR IMPROVEMENT.
THE ABOVE TONE IS IMPORTANT FOR GAINING AFRICAN SUPPORT
AND UNDERSTANDING ON ZIMBABWE AND TO KEEP THE PRESSURE
ON THE GOZ. FOR THESE REASONS, WE INTEND TO CONTINUE
PUBLICIZING PUBLIC ACTIVITIES IN SUPPORT OF THE
ZIMBABWEAN PEOPLE, SEEKING MAXIMUM PUBLICITY FOR SELF-
HELP PROGRAM GRANTS, HIV-AIDS AND OTHER ACTIVITIES ON
BEHALF OF THE PEOPLE.

SULLIVAN

CONFIDENTIAL

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