ZIMBABWE MOVES TO PROHIBIT INDEPENDENT DOMESTIC

C O N F I D E N T I A L HARARE 003356 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER BRUSSELS ALSO FOR USEU LONDON FOR GURNEY PARIS FOR NEARY NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER C O R R E C T E D C O P Y : (TEXT R/H MARGIN) E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/31/11 TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ZI SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE MOVES TO PROHIBIT INDEPENDENT DOMESTIC ELECTION MONITORS REF: STATE 195461 CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF MATT HARRINGTON. REASONS: 1.5 (B) AND (D). 1.(U) MINISTER OF JUSTICE, LEGAL, AND PARLIAMENTARY AFFAIRS PATRICK CHINAMASA ANNOUNCED ON NOVEMBER 6 THE GOVERNMENT'S INTENTION TO AMEND THE ELECTORAL ACT TO GIVE THE PRESIDENTIALLY-APPOINTED ELECTORAL SUPERVISORY COMMISSION (ESC) EXPLICIT RESPONSIBILITY FOR RECRUITMENT, TRAINING, AND DEPLOYMENT OF ELECTION MONITORS. THE ESC HAS OVERSEEN THE ACCREDITATION OF DOMESTIC MONITORS AND INTERNATIONAL OBSERVERS IN THE PAST, BUT THIS HAS BEEN AN AD HOC ARRANGEMENT, AS NEITHER THE CONSTITUTION NOR THE ELECTORAL ACT CURRENTLY CONTAINS REFERENCES TO ELECTION MONITORS. THE AMENDMENT, EXPECTED TO BE TABLED ONCE PARLIAMENT RECONVENES ON NOVEMBER 20, WILL REQUIRE THE ESC TO DRAW DOMESTIC MONITORS EXCLUSIVELY FROM THE RANKS OF CIVIL SERVANTS. IN THE JUNE 2000 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS, MOST OF THE MORE THAT CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 03356 141519Z 17,000 DOMESTIC MONITORS WERE DRAWN FROM PERSONNEL TRAINED LOCAL NGO'S, WHOSE IMPARTIALITY, ACCORDING TO CHINAMASA, WAS "QUESTIONABLE." THE MINISTER OF JUSTICE SAID THAT ARRANGEMENT "HAS BEEN DISCOVERED TO BE UNDESIRABLE, CONSIDERING THE FACT THAT MOST NON-GOVERNMENTAL ORGANIZATIONS ARE PARTIAL, FOREIGN FUNDED, LOYAL TO THEIR FUNDERS AND THEREFORE PRODUCE MONITORS WHO WERE PARTISAN." CHINAMASA PROMISED THAT INTERNATIONAL OBSERVERS WOULD BE INVITED AFTER THE DATES FOR THE ELECTION ARE ANNOUNCED (NOTE: ZANU-PF'S ACTING POLITICAL COMMISSAR TOLD US ON NOVEMBER 8 THAT THE ELECTION WOULD LIKELY BE HELD IN MARCH AND THAT SPECIFIC. DATES COULD BE ANNOUNCED AS EARLY AS MID-DECEMBER, AT THE RULING PARTY'S ANNUAL CONGRESS. END NOTE.) ¶2. (U) IN MORE BELLICOSE PUBLIC REMARKS, INFORMATION MINISTER JONATHAN MOYO DISMISSED CONCERNS THAT THE GOZ MOVE WOULD PREVENT CIVIL SOCIETY FROM MONITORING THE ELECTIONS. CIVIL SOCIETY GROUPS, HE SAID, HAVE NO INHERENT RIGHT TO SERVE AS MONITORS, AS THEY ARE "DONOR CREATED AND HAVE NO CONSTITUTIONAL STANDING." MOYO LATER CLARIFIED THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN ELECTION MONITORS AND ELECTION OBSERVERS THE FORMER, HE SAID, SUPERVISE ELECTIONS AND HAVE THE RIGHT TO POINT OUT AND CORRECT IRREGULARITIES THAT MIGHT OCCUR DURING VOTING, AND THEY SHOULD BE DRAWN FROM A DOMESTIC POOL OF IMPARTIAL ZIMBABWEANS. INTERNATIONAL MONITORS, HE EMPHASIZED, HAVE NEVER PARTICIPATED IN ZIMBABWEAN ELECTIONS OBSERVERS, ON THE OTHER HAND, ARE "NO DIFFERENT FROM TOURISTS," AS THEY MERELY WATCH THE PROCEEDINGS AND HAVE NO RIGHT TO INTERVENE. ACCORDING TO MOYO, "THERE IS NO REASON TO THINK" THAT ZIMBABWE WILL NOT INVITE INTERNATIONAL OBSERVERS, AS IT HAS IN THE PAST, BUT HE STRESSED THAT ONLY CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 03356 141519Z ZIMBABWE'S FRIENDS WOULD RECEIVE INVITATIONS. "I DON'T THINK THE AMERICANS WILL INVITE THE TALIBAN TO MONITOR THEIR ELECTIONS," HE REMARKED HELPFULLY. CHINAMASA SEPARATELY EXPLAINED THAT, ALTHOUGH OBSERVERS WOULD NOT BE PERMITTED INSIDE THE POLLING STATIONS, THEY WOULD BE ABLE TO BRING AN IRREGULARITIES TO THE ATTENTION OF LOCAL ELECTION OFFICIALS. REACTIONS FROM CIVIL SOCIETY -------------- ¶3. (C) EILEEN SAWYER, NATIONAL DIRECTOR OF THE LEGAL RESOURCES FOUNDATION (LRF),A WELL-RESPECTED LEGAL RIGHTS NGO, CRITICIZED THE GOZ MOVE AS A CLEAR EFFORT TO PROHIBIT INDEPENDENT MONITORS. SHE NOTED THAT THE ESC IS A PARTISAN BODY WHICH DOES NOT HAVE THE RESOURCES (ONLY TWO OF THE FIVE SEATS ON THE COMMISSION ARE CURRENTLY FILLED, FOR INSTANCE) TO OVERSEE THIS EFFORT. ACCORDING TO SAWYER, CIVIL SERVANTS PREDOMINANTLY TEACHERS, HAVE BEEN USED AS MONITORS IN PAST ELECTIONS, BUT THE GOZ NOW SUSPECTS THAT MOST TEACHERS HARBOR SYMPATHIES FOR THE OPPOSITION MDC. AS A RESULT, THE GOVERNMENT WILL NOW TAKE GREAT CARE TO ENSURE THAT MONITORS ARE DRAWN FROM A POOL OF SYMPATHETIC "CIVIL SERVANTS," INCLUDING WAR VETERANS, CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE ORGANIZATION (CIO) AGENTS, AND UNEMPLOYED YOUTHS CURRENTLY ENROLLED IN A RECENTLY-INAUGURATED NATIONAL YOUTH SERVICE TRAINING PROGRAM THE LRF'S CHIEF LEGAL ADVISOR HAS DETERMINED THAT THE STEPS ANNOUNCED BY CHINAMASA WOULD NOT VIOLATE THE CONSTITUTION OR THE ELECTORAL ACT. ZESN CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 05 HARARE 03356 141519Z ¶4. (U) THE UMBRELLA NGO ZIMBABWE ELECTION SUPPORT NETWORK (ZESN),WHICH HAS COORDINATED THE DOMESTIC MONITORING EFFORT IN RECENT ELECTIONS, ISSUED A PUBLIC STATEMENT OF CONCERN AFTER CHINAMASA'S ANNOUNCEMENT. ZESN LIKENED THE MONITORING OF ELECTIONS BY CIVIL SERVANTS TO STUDENTS GRADING THEIR OWN EXAMS AND REITERATED PREVIOUS CALLS FOR FORMATION OF AN INDEPENDENT ELECTORAL COMMISSION, WHICH IT TERMED AN "ESSENTIAL PREREQUISITE FOR FREE AND FAIR ELECTIONS." IN THE MEANTIME, ZESN VOWED TO "INTENSIFY VOTER EDUCATION AND ELECTION MONITORING WHICH IS ALREADY UNDERWAY" AND INSISTED IT WOULD "NOT SHY AWAY FROM BOTH OUR RIGHT AND DUTY TO OBSERVE THE COMING ELECTIONS." IN A POINTED CONCLUDING PARAGRAPH, ZESN OFFERED TO SHARE WITH GOVERNMENT "THE ELECTORAL MONITORING EXPERTISE AND RESOURCES WE HAVE PAINSTAKINGLY DEVELOPED OVER SEVERAL YEARS." COMMENT -------------- ¶5. (C) IT IS DIFFICULT TO OFFER DEFINITIVE CONCLUSIONS AND ANALYSES UNTIL WE SEE THE TEXT OF THE PROPOSED LEGISLATION, BUT IT SEEMS CLEAR THAT GOVERNMENT INTENDS TO PREVENT MONITORS IT PERCEIVES AS ANTI-ZANU-PF FROM PARTICIPATING IN THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION. AS THE COMMENTS BY CHINAMASA AND MOYO REVEAL, SENIOR GOZ OFFICIALS BELIEVE THAT A MAJORITY OF LOCAL NGO'S ARE FRONT ORGANIZATIONS REPRESENTING THE INTERESTS OF WESTERN COUNTRIES, AND ARE WORKING TO ENSURE AN MDC VICTORY IN NEXT YEAR'S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION. AS A RESULT, THE GOVERNMENT WILL ATTEMPT TO PUT IN PLACE MONITOR SYMPATHETIC TO IT. ANOTHER EQUALLY LIKELY POSSIBILITY, IN OUR VIEW, IS THAT THE ESC SIMPLY WILL BE UNABLE TO RECRUIT, CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 06 HARARE 03356 141519Z TRAIN, AND ACCREDIT SUFFICIENT NUMBERS OF PEOPLE, MEANING VERY FEW DOMESTIC MONITORS WILL BE IN PLACE ON ELECTION DAY THE PROSPECT THAT EITHER SCENARIO WILL COME TO PASS FURTHER DAMPENS OUR HOPE THAT NEXT YEAR'S ELECTION WILL APPROACH FR AND FAIR. THAT SAID, IT APPEARS THAT, ALTHOUGH CIVIL SOCIETY GROUPS SUCH AS ZESN WILL BE BARRED FROM ENTERING THE POLLING STATIONS ON ELECTION DAYS, THEY WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABLE TO MONITOR PREPARATIONS AND POLITICAL VIOLENCE DURING THE PRE- ELECTION PERIOD. THEIR EXCLUSION FROM THE POLLING STATIONS ON ELECTION DAYS WILL MAKE THE ROLE OF THE POLITICAL PARTY AGENTS WHO ARE PERMITTED INSIDE PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT. ¶6. (C) MOYO'S REMARKS PROVIDED USEFUL CLARIFICATION OF THE GOVERNMENT'S DISTINCTION BETWEEN MONITORS AND OBSERVERS, WHILE CHINAMASA'S COMMENTS LEAVE OPEN THE POSSIBILITY THAT INTERNATIONAL OBSERVERS COULD BE INVITED AS EARLY AS MID- DECEMBER. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT GOVERNMENT IS WORKING TO NARROW THE LOOPHOLES FOR EFFECTIVE DOMESTIC MONITORING AND INTERNATIONAL OBSERVATION, BUT WE NEED TO KEEP PRESSING EVERY OPPORTUNITY. SULLIVAN CONFIDENTIAL > @@@OASYS@@@ CONFIDENTIAL PTQ5019 PAGE 01 HARARE 03356 01 OF 02 141418Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 COR-01 NP-00 AID-00 AMAD-00 A-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 INL-00 USNW-00 DODE-00 WHA-00 DS-00 EAP-00 EB-00 EUR-00 FBIE-00 UTED-00 FOE-00 VC-00 FSI-00 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 JUSE-00 L-00 VCE-00 NEA-00 DCP-01 NSAE-00 OIC-02 OIG-03 IRM-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 SA-00 R-00 EPAE-00 IIP-00 SNIS-00 NISC-00 DSCC-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /007W -------------- 3E15D6 141418Z /07 O 091154Z NOV 01 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0251 INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY AMEMBASSY CANBERRA AMEMBASSY NAIROBI AMEMBASSY ABUJA AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS AMEMBASSY OTTAWA AMEMBASSY KINGSTON AMEMBASSY STOCKHOLM AMEMBASSY OSLO AMEMBASSY COPENHAGEN C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 003356 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 03356 01 OF 02 141418Z BRUSSELS ALSO FOR USEU LONDON FOR GURNEY PARIS FOR NEARY NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER C O R R E C T E D C O P Y : (TEXT R/H MARGIN) E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/31/11 TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ZI SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE MOVES TO PROHIBIT INDEPENDENT DOMESTIC ELECTION MONITORS REF: STATE 195461 CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF MATT HARRINGTON. REASONS: 1.5 (B) AND (D). 1.(U) MINISTER OF JUSTICE, LEGAL, AND PARLIAMENTARY AFFAIRS PATRICK CHINAMASA ANNOUNCED ON NOVEMBER 6 THE GOVERNMENT'S INTENTION TO AMEND THE ELECTORAL ACT TO GIVE THE PRESIDENTIALLY-APPOINTED ELECTORAL SUPERVISORY COMMISSION (ESC) EXPLICIT RESPONSIBILITY FOR RECRUITMENT, TRAINING, AND DEPLOYMENT OF ELECTION MONITORS. THE ESC HAS OVERSEEN THE ACCREDITATION OF DOMESTIC MONITORS AND INTERNATIONAL OBSERVERS IN THE PAST, BUT THIS HAS BEEN AN AD HOC ARRANGEMENT, AS NEITHER THE CONSTITUTION NOR THE ELECTORAL ACT CURRENTLY CONTAINS REFERENCES TO ELECTION MONITORS. THE AMENDMENT, EXPECTED TO BE TABLED ONCE PARLIAMENT RECONVENES ON NOVEMBER 20, WILL REQUIRE THE ESC TO DRAW DOMESTIC MONITORS EXCLUSIVELY FROM THE RANKS OF CIVIL SERVANTS. IN THE JUNE 2000 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS, MOST OF THE MORE THAT CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 03356 01 OF 02 141418Z 17,000 DOMESTIC MONITORS WERE DRAWN FROM PERSONNEL TRAINED LOCAL NGO'S, WHOSE IMPARTIALITY, ACCORDING TO CHINAMASA, WAS "QUESTIONABLE." THE MINISTER OF JUSTICE SAID THAT ARRANGEMENT "HAS BEEN DISCOVERED TO BE UNDESIRABLE, CONSIDERING THE FACT THAT MOST NON-GOVERNMENTAL ORGANIZATIONS ARE PARTIAL, FOREIGN FUNDED, LOYAL TO THEIR FUNDERS AND THEREFORE PRODUCE MONITORS WHO WERE PARTISAN." CHINAMASA PROMISED THAT INTERNATIONAL OBSERVERS WOULD BE INVITED AFTER THE DATES FOR THE ELECTION ARE ANNOUNCED (NOTE: ZANU-PF'S ACTING POLITICAL COMMISSAR TOLD US ON NOVEMBER 8 THAT THE ELECTION WOULD LIKELY BE HELD IN MARCH AND THAT SPECIFIC. DATES COULD BE ANNOUNCED AS EARLY AS MID-DECEMBER, AT THE RULING PARTY'S ANNUAL CONGRESS. END NOTE.) ¶2. (U) IN MORE BELLICOSE PUBLIC REMARKS, INFORMATION MINISTER JONATHAN MOYO DISMISSED CONCERNS THAT THE GOZ MOVE WOULD PREVENT CIVIL SOCIETY FROM MONITORING THE ELECTIONS. CIVIL SOCIETY GROUPS, HE SAID, HAVE NO INHERENT RIGHT TO SERVE AS MONITORS, AS THEY ARE "DONOR CREATED AND HAVE NO CONSTITUTIONAL STANDING." MOYO LATER CLARIFIED THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN ELECTION MONITORS AND ELECTION OBSERVERS THE FORMER, HE SAID, SUPERVISE ELECTIONS AND HAVE THE RIGHT TO POINT OUT AND CORRECT IRREGULARITIES THAT MIGHT OCCUR DURING VOTING, AND THEY SHOULD BE DRAWN FROM A DOMESTIC POOL OF IMPARTIAL ZIMBABWEANS. INTERNATIONAL MONITORS, HE EMPHASIZED, HAVE NEVER PARTICIPATED IN ZIMBABWEAN ELECTIONS OBSERVERS, ON THE OTHER HAND, ARE "NO DIFFERENT FROM TOURISTS," AS THEY MERELY WATCH THE PROCEEDINGS AND HAVE NO RIGHT TO INTERVENE. ACCORDING TO MOYO, "THERE IS NO REASON TO THINK" THAT ZIMBABWE WILL NOT INVITE INTERNATIONAL OBSERVERS, AS IT HAS IN THE PAST, BUT HE STRESSED THAT ONLY CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 03356 01 OF 02 141418Z ZIMBABWE'S FRIENDS WOULD RECEIVE INVITATIONS. "I DON'T THINK THE AMERICANS WILL INVITE THE TALIBAN TO MONITOR THEIR ELECTIONS," HE REMARKED HELPFULLY. CHINAMASA SEPARATELY EXPLAINED THAT, ALTHOUGH OBSERVERS WOULD NOT BE PERMITTED INSIDE THE POLLING STATIONS, THEY WOULD BE ABLE TO BRING AN IRREGULARITIES TO THE ATTENTION OF LOCAL ELECTION OFFICIALS. REACTIONS FROM CIVIL SOCIETY -------------- ¶3. (C) EILEEN SAWYER, NATIONAL DIRECTOR OF THE LEGAL RESOURCES FOUNDATION (LRF),A WELL-RESPECTED LEGAL RIGHTS NGO, CRITICIZED THE GOZ MOVE AS A CLEAR EFFORT TO PROHIBIT INDEPENDENT MONITORS. SHE NOTED THAT THE ESC IS A PARTISAN BODY WHICH DOES NOT HAVE THE RESOURCES (ONLY TWO OF THE FIVE SEATS ON THE COMMISSION ARE CURRENTLY FILLED, FOR INSTANCE) TO OVERSEE THIS EFFORT. ACCORDING TO SAWYER, CIVIL SERVANTS PREDOMINANTLY TEACHERS, HAVE BEEN USED AS MONITORS IN PAST ELECTIONS, BUT THE GOZ NOW SUSPECTS THAT MOST TEACHERS HARBOR SYMPATHIES FOR THE OPPOSITION MDC. AS A RESULT, THE GOVERNMENT WILL NOW TAKE GREAT CARE TO ENSURE THAT MONITORS ARE DRAWN FROM A POOL OF SYMPATHETIC "CIVIL SERVANTS," INCLUDING WAR VETERANS, CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE ORGANIZATION (CIO) AGENTS, AND UNEMPLOYED YOUTHS CURRENTLY ENROLLED IN A RECENTLY-INAUGURATED NATIONAL YOUTH SERVICE TRAINING PROGRAM THE LRF'S CHIEF LEGAL ADVISOR HAS DETERMINED THAT THE STEPS CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ5025 PAGE 01 HARARE 03356 02 OF 02 141419Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 COR-01 NP-00 AID-00 AMAD-00 A-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 INL-00 USNW-00 DODE-00 WHA-00 DS-00 EAP-00 EB-00 EUR-00 FBIE-00 UTED-00 FOE-00 VC-00 FSI-00 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 JUSE-00 L-00 VCE-00 NEA-00 DCP-01 NSAE-00 OIC-02 OIG-03 IRM-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 SA-00 R-00 EPAE-00 IIP-00 SNIS-00 NISC-00 DSCC-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /007W -------------- 3E15F6 141419Z /07 O 091154Z NOV 01 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0252 INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY AMEMBASSY CANBERRA AMEMBASSY NAIROBI AMEMBASSY ABUJA AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS AMEMBASSY OTTAWA AMEMBASSY KINGSTON AMEMBASSY STOCKHOLM AMEMBASSY OSLO AMEMBASSY COPENHAGEN C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 003356 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 03356 02 OF 02 141419Z BRUSSELS ALSO FOR USEU LONDON FOR GURNEY PARIS FOR NEARY NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER C O R R E C T E D C O P Y (TEXT R/H MARGIN) E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/31/11 TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ZI SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE MOVES TO PROHIBIT INDEPENDENT DOMESTIC ELECTION MONITORS ANNOUNCED BY CHINAMASA WOULD NOT VIOLATE THE CONSTITUTION OR THE ELECTORAL ACT. ZESN ¶4. (U) THE UMBRELLA NGO ZIMBABWE ELECTION SUPPORT NETWORK (ZESN),WHICH HAS COORDINATED THE DOMESTIC MONITORING EFFORT IN RECENT ELECTIONS, ISSUED A PUBLIC STATEMENT OF CONCERN AFTER CHINAMASA'S ANNOUNCEMENT. ZESN LIKENED THE MONITORING OF ELECTIONS BY CIVIL SERVANTS TO STUDENTS GRADING THEIR OWN EXAMS AND REITERATED PREVIOUS CALLS FOR FORMATION OF AN INDEPENDENT ELECTORAL COMMISSION, WHICH IT TERMED AN "ESSENTIAL PREREQUISITE FOR FREE AND FAIR ELECTIONS." IN THE MEANTIME, ZESN VOWED TO "INTENSIFY VOTER EDUCATION AND ELECTION MONITORING WHICH IS ALREADY UNDERWAY" AND INSISTED IT WOULD "NOT SHY AWAY FROM BOTH OUR RIGHT AND DUTY TO OBSERVE THE COMING ELECTIONS." IN A POINTED CONCLUDING PARAGRAPH, ZESN OFFERED TO SHARE WITH GOVERNMENT "THE ELECTORAL MONITORING EXPERTISE AND RESOURCES WE HAVE CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 03356 02 OF 02 141419Z PAINSTAKINGLY DEVELOPED OVER SEVERAL YEARS." COMMENT -------------- ¶5. (C) IT IS DIFFICULT TO OFFER DEFINITIVE CONCLUSIONS AND ANALYSES UNTIL WE SEE THE TEXT OF THE PROPOSED LEGISLATION, BUT IT SEEMS CLEAR THAT GOVERNMENT INTENDS TO PREVENT MONITORS IT PERCEIVES AS ANTI-ZANU-PF FROM PARTICIPATING IN THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION. AS THE COMMENTS BY CHINAMASA AND MOYO REVEAL, SENIOR GOZ OFFICIALS BELIEVE THAT A MAJORITY OF LOCAL NGO'S ARE FRONT ORGANIZATIONS REPRESENTING THE INTERESTS OF WESTERN COUNTRIES, AND ARE WORKING TO ENSURE AN MDC VICTORY IN NEXT YEAR'S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION. AS A RESULT, THE GOVERNMENT WILL ATTEMPT TO PUT IN PLACE MONITOR SYMPATHETIC TO IT. ANOTHER EQUALLY LIKELY POSSIBILITY, IN OUR VIEW, IS THAT THE ESC SIMPLY WILL BE UNABLE TO RECRUIT, TRAIN, AND ACCREDIT SUFFICIENT NUMBERS OF PEOPLE, MEANING VERY FEW DOMESTIC MONITORS WILL BE IN PLACE ON ELECTION DAY THE PROSPECT THAT EITHER SCENARIO WILL COME TO PASS FURTHER DAMPENS OUR HOPE THAT NEXT YEAR'S ELECTION WILL APPROACH FR AND FAIR. THAT SAID, IT APPEARS THAT, ALTHOUGH CIVIL SOCIETY GROUPS SUCH AS ZESN WILL BE BARRED FROM ENTERING THE POLLING STATIONS ON ELECTION DAYS, THEY WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABLE TO MONITOR PREPARATIONS AND POLITICAL VIOLENCE DURING THE PRE- ELECTION PERIOD. THEIR EXCLUSION FROM THE POLLING STATIONS ON ELECTION DAYS WILL MAKE THE ROLE OF THE POLITICAL PARTY AGENTS WHO ARE PERMITTED INSIDE PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT. ¶6. (C) MOYO'S REMARKS PROVIDED USEFUL CLARIFICATION OF THE GOVERNMENT'S DISTINCTION BETWEEN MONITORS AND OBSERVERS, CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 03356 02 OF 02 141419Z WHILE CHINAMASA'S COMMENTS LEAVE OPEN THE POSSIBILITY THAT INTERNATIONAL OBSERVERS COULD BE INVITED AS EARLY AS MID- DECEMBER. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT GOVERNMENT IS WORKING TO NARROW THE LOOPHOLES FOR EFFECTIVE DOMESTIC MONITORING AND INTERNATIONAL OBSERVATION, BUT WE NEED TO KEEP PRESSING EVERY OPPORTUNITY. SULLIVAN CONFIDENTIAL >