EU'S NEXT STEPS ON ZIMBABWE

C O N F I D E N T I A L HARARE 003263 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER BRUSSELS ALSO FOR USEU LONDON FOR GURNEY PARIS FOR NEARY NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER E.O. 12958: DECL. 10/31/11 TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM ZI SUBJECT: EU'S NEXT STEPS ON ZIMBABWE REF: USEU BRUSSELS 5442 CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF MATT HARRINGTON. REASONS: 1.5 (B) AND (D). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) THE EU WILL FORMALLY NOTIFY THE GOVERNMENT OF ZIMBABWE WITHIN 15 DAYS OF ITS DECISION TO MOVE TO ARTICLE 96 DISCUSSIONS UNDER THE COTONOU AGREEMENT. THE GOZ WILL HAVE 15 DAYS TO DECIDE WHETHER TO PARTICIPATE, THEN UP TO 60 DAYS (I.E. LATE JANUARY) TO ADDRESS EU CONCERNS IN FIVE BROAD CATEGORIES. ABSENT GOZ PROGRESS AT THE END OF THIS PERIOD, THE EU CAN REDUCE OR ELIMINATE DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE OR SUSPEND TRADE PRIVILEGES, ALTHOUGH THE EC DELEGATION INFORMED US THAT THE LATTER HAS NEVER BEEN DONE AND THE EU FEARS THE FORMER MIGHT EXACERBATE ZIMBABWE'S ECONOMIC PROBLEMS. IMPOSITION OF SMART SANCTIONS IS NOT AN OPTION UNDER THE COTONOU AGREEMENT. ALTHOUGH THE GOZ'S INITIAL REACTION WAS SUBDUED, FOREIGN MINISTER MUDENGE SUBSEQUENTLY TOUGHENED HIS RHETORIC, LASHING OUT AT THE EU'S ISSUANCE OF "THREATS AND ULTIMATUMS" AND CRITICIZING THE UNITED KINGDOM FOR LEADING THE EU CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 03263 010010Z ASTRAY. END SUMMARY. EU'S MOVE TO ARTICLE 96 DIALOGUE -------------- ¶2. (U) REFTEL REPORTS THE OCTOBER 29 DECISION BY THE EU'S GENERAL AFFAIRS COUNCIL (GAC) TO MOVE TO A TOUGHER POLITICAL DIALOGUE WITH ZIMBABWE UNDER ARTICLE 96 OF THE COTONOU AGREEMENT. POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF MET ON OCTOBER 31 WITH ALEX KREMER, DEPUTY HEAD OF DELEGATION FOR THE EUROPEAN COMMISSION IN HARARE, TO DISCUSS THE IMPLICATIONS OF THE GAC MOVE. PROCESS -------------- ¶3. (C) ACCORDING TO KREMER, THE GOVERNMENT OF ZIMBABWE LIKELY WOULD NOT BE FORMALLY NOTIFIED OF THE GAC DECISION UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK. THE OFFICIAL LETTER OF NOTIFICATION IS CURRENTLY BEING DRAFTED IN BRUSSELS EXPLAINING THE DECISION AND CONVEYING THE TERMS OF REFERENCE FOR THE PROPOSED ARTICLE 96 DIALOGUE. (NOTE: THAT LETTER IS NOT LIKELY TO BE READY UNTIL ABOUT NOVEMBER 12, ACCORDING TO EU COMMISSIONER MOSCA. END NOTE.) AFTER IT RECEIVES THE LETTER, THE GOZ WILL HAVE 15 DAYS TO DECIDE WHETHER TO PARTICIPATE. KREMER PREDICTED THAT THE ANSWER ALMOST CERTAINLY WOULD BE "YES" BUT PROBABLY WOULD NOT BE CONVEYED UNTIL DAY 14 OR ¶15. THE EU AND ZIMBABWE WOULD THEN ENGAGE IN A DIALOGUE -- WHICH CAN LAST UP TO 60 DAYS, BUT NO LONGER -- INTENDED TO ACHIEVE PROGRESS ON THE FIVE BROAD CATEGORIES OF CONCERN DESCRIBED IN THE GAC'S DECISION: ENDING POLITICAL VIOLENCE, ELECTION MONITORING, FREEDOM OF THE MEDIA, INDEPENDENCE OF THE JUDICIARY, AND ENDING ILLEGAL OCCUPATION OF PROPERTIES. THE EC DELEGATION IN HARARE HAS CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 03263 010010Z RECOMMENDED THAT THE EU SHARE WITH THE GOZ SPECIFIC BENCHMARKS TO BE USED IN MEASURING PROGRESS, AND THAT THE BENCHMARKS BE LINKED TO THE SUBSTANCE OF THE ABUJA AGREEMENT. KREMER NOTED THAT NO FINAL DECISION HAD BEEN MADE ON THAT ISSUE, AS "SOME IN BRUSSELS" ARE CONCERNED THAT SHARING EXPLICIT BENCHMARKS MIGHT APPEAR TOO MUCH LIKE IMPOSING DEMANDS, AND THUS MIGHT NOT BE CONDUCIVE TO PRODUCTIVE DIALOGUE. KREMER SPECULATED THAT THE DIALOGUE WOULD MOST LIKELY BE CONDUCTED AT THE MINISTERIAL LEVEL. THIS MAKES IT EASIER FOR THE GOZ TO DRAW THE PROCESS OUT, AND THE EU DOES NOT WANT THE LEVEL OF DIALOGUE TO BE USED BY THE GOZ AS AN EXCUSE FOR LACK OF SUCCESS. "APPROPRIATE MEASURES" -------------- ¶4. (C) KREMER NOTED THAT, IF THE GOZ DECLINES TO PARTICIPATE IN THE DIALOGUE OR PARTICIPATES, BUT FAILS TO ADDRESS GENUINELY THE FIVE AREAS OF CONCERN DURING THE 60-DAY PERIOD, THE EU CAN THEN TAKE "APPROPRIATE MEASURES." SUCH MEASURES, ACCORDING TO KREMER, COULD INCLUDE REDUCTIONS IN ASSISTANCE OR SUSPENSION OF TRADE PRIVILEGES, OR BOTH. HE DOUBTED THAT THERE WOULD BE AN APPETITE WITHIN THE EU FOR IMPOSITION OF TOUGH MEASURES, EVEN IF LITTLE PROGRESS IS ACHIEVED. TRADE PRIVILEGES, HE SAID, HAVE NEVER BEEN SUSPENDED, EITHER UNDER THE COTONOU AGREEMENT OR ITS LOME PREDECESSORS. IN ADDITION, THERE IS CONCERN THAT SUSPENDING AID -- MOST OF WHICH GOES TO BASIC EDUCATION, COMMUNITY LEVEL DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMS, AND COMBATTING AIDS -- MIGHT WORSEN THE ALREADY DIFFICULT ECONOMIC PLIGHT OF ORDINARY ZIMBABWEANS. KREMER POINTED OUT THAT IMPOSITION OF SO-CALLED SMART SANCTIONS, TARGETING PRESIDENT MUGABE, HIS INNER CIRCLE, AND THEIR FAMILIES, CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 05 HARARE 03263 010010Z IS NOT AN OPTION UNDER THE COTONOU AGREEMENT. INDIVIDUAL EU MEMBERS, NOT THE EC ITSELF, WOULD HAVE TO TAKE THE INITIATIVE IN PURSUING SUCH AN APPROACH UNDER THE EU'S COMMON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY. LIKELY SCENARIOS -------------- ¶5. (C) ASKED HOW HE THOUGHT THE ARTICLE 96 PROCESS WOULD UNFOLD, KREMER OFFERED TWO POSSIBLE SCENARIOS. THE GOZ WOULD AGREE TO THE DIALOGUE, WHICH WOULD ACHIEVE NO PROGRESS FOR 59 DAYS. ON THE 60TH DAY, THE GOZ WOULD THROW THE EU A BONE, SUCH AS ISSUING AN INVITATION TO ELECTION OBSERVERS, FORCING THE EU TO POSTPONE ANY DECISION ON SANCTIONS. A SECOND POSSIBILITY IS THAT THE GOZ TAKES NO STEPS WHATSOEVER TO ADDRESS EU CONCERNS, CAUSING THE EU TO SUSPEND ONE OR TWO AID PROJECTS, BUT TO AVOID A LARGE-SCALE ASSISTANCE CUTOFF, FOR THE REASONS ELABORATED IN PARAGRAPH 4. GOVERNMENT'S REACTION -------------- ¶6. (C) ALTHOUGH THE EU HAS NOT YET FORMALLY NOTIFIED THE GOZ OF ITS DECISION ON ARTICLE 96, THE MOVE HAS BEEN WIDELY COVERED IN THE LOCAL PRESS. THE INITIAL PUBLIC REACTION OF FOREIGN MINISTER MUDENGE, THE GOZ'S PRIMARY INTERLOCUTOR WITH THE EU OF LATE, WAS SURPRISINGLY SUBDUED. IN THE OCTOBER 30 EDITION OF THE GOZ- CONTROLLED "THE HERALD," MUDENGE CALLED THE EU DECISION "PROCEDURAL," AND SAID "I AM READY TO DISCUSS WITH THEM UNDER ARTICLE 96. ZIMBABWE IS READY FOR THE CONSULTATIONS...AT THE MOMENT WE GO WITH AN OPEN MIND." THE FOREIGN MINISTER'S RHETORIC TOUGHENED CONSIDERABLY THE FOLLOWING DAY, HOWEVER, AS MUDENGE CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 06 HARARE 03263 010010Z LASHED OUT AT THE EU FOR ISSUING "THREATS AND ULTIMATUMS" AND BLAMED THE BRITISH FOR MOBILIZING THE EU AGAINST ZIMBABWE. "WE WILL NOT ACT ON THE BASIS OF THREATS AND ULTIMATUMS," HE SAID, AND STRESSED THAT FOREIGN OBSERVERS WOULD NOT BE PERMITTED TO MONITOR ZIMBABWE'S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, BUT ONLY TO OBSERVE IT. KREMER JOKED TO US THAT MUDENGE'S CONCILIATORY INITIAL REMARKS LIKELY PRECEDED CONSULTATIONS WITH PRESIDENT MUGABE. COMMENT -------------- ¶7. (C) WE SHARE KREMER'S ASSESSMENT THAT THE GOZ LIKELY WILL AGREE TO THE ARTICLE 96 DIALOGUE, BUT WILL THEN DELAY ADDRESSING THE EU'S CONCERNS AS LONG AS POSSIBLE, PERHAPS MAKING A MINOR CONCESSION OR TWO AT THE LAST MINUTE. IT DOES NOT APPEAR AS IF THE EU HAS MANY POLICY OPTIONS ON WHICH IT CAN DRAW IF THE 60-DAY DIALOGUE FAILS COMPLETELY. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT MOST DEVELOPMENTS ABOUT WHICH THE EU IS CONCERNED ARE KEY ELEMENTS OF THE GOZ'S ELECTORAL STRATEGY, AREAS THE GOVERNMENT WILL BE LOATHE TO CHANGE UNTIL AFTER ELECTIONS. THE ABOVE NOTWITHSTANDING, THE EU DECISION INCREASES PRESSURE ON ZIMBABWE AND MAKES CLEARER TO ALL -- INCLUDING THE ZIMBABWEAN PUBLIC -- THAT THE COUNTRY'S DISASTROUS COURSE IS BROADLY CONDEMNED. ¶8. (C) TIME IS WORKING IN THE GOZ'S FAVOR, SINCE THE ARTICLE 96 TIMELINE WILL NOT HAVE RUN ITS COURSE UNTIL LATE JANUARY WITH ELECTIONS LOOMING, POSSIBLY JUST WEEKS AWAY. EU COMMISSIONER MOSCA TOLD THE AMBASSADOR SHE RECOGNIZED THAT THE 60-DAY PERIOD ENDS TOO LATE FOR TIMELY PRESSURE ON ELECTION ISSUES, AND SHE WAS OPEN TO FINDING OTHER MEANS FOR PRESSING FOR EARLY AND EFFECTIVE ELECTION OBSERVATION AND REDUCTION OF POLITICAL VIOLENCE. IN THE CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 07 HARARE 03263 010010Z MEANTIME, THE GOZ STRATEGY APPEARS TO BE "DIVIDE AND CONQUER," DEMONIZING THE BRITISH FOR LEADING THEIR CONTINENTAL BRETHREN ASTRAY. THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE GOZ ATTEMPT TO PORTRAY AN AFRICAN/NON-AFRICAN SPLIT IN THE COMMONWEALTH OVER ABUJA IMPLEMENTATION, A PLOY THAT HAS FOOLED NO ONE. WE DO NOT THINK THAT IT PLAYS WELL EVEN ON MAIN STREET HERE. SULLIVAN CONFIDENTIAL > @@@OASYS@@@ CONFIDENTIAL PTQ1817 PAGE 01 HARARE 03263 01 OF 02 312223Z ACTION EUR-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AF-00 AID-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 DODE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 UTED-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 NSCE-00 OIC-02 OIG-03 OMB-01 PA-00 PC-01 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SCT-00 SP-00 IRM-00 SSO-00 SS-00 STR-00 TEST-00 TRSE-00 T-00 USIE-00 R-00 EPAE-00 SNIS-00 NISC-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 PRM-00 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /011W -------------- 38357E 312223Z /69 P 311535Z OCT 01 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0167 INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY AMEMBASSY CANBERRA AMEMBASSY NAIROBI AMEMBASSY ABUJA AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS AMEMBASSY OTTAWA AMEMBASSY KINGSTON AMEMBASSY STOCKHOLM AMEMBASSY OSLO AMEMBASSY COPENHAGEN C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 003263 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 03263 01 OF 02 312223Z BRUSSELS ALSO FOR USEU LONDON FOR GURNEY PARIS FOR NEARY NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER E.O. 12958: DECL. 10/31/11 TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM ZI SUBJECT: EU'S NEXT STEPS ON ZIMBABWE REF: USEU BRUSSELS 5442 CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF MATT HARRINGTON. REASONS: 1.5 (B) AND (D). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) THE EU WILL FORMALLY NOTIFY THE GOVERNMENT OF ZIMBABWE WITHIN 15 DAYS OF ITS DECISION TO MOVE TO ARTICLE 96 DISCUSSIONS UNDER THE COTONOU AGREEMENT. THE GOZ WILL HAVE 15 DAYS TO DECIDE WHETHER TO PARTICIPATE, THEN UP TO 60 DAYS (I.E. LATE JANUARY) TO ADDRESS EU CONCERNS IN FIVE BROAD CATEGORIES. ABSENT GOZ PROGRESS AT THE END OF THIS PERIOD, THE EU CAN REDUCE OR ELIMINATE DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE OR SUSPEND TRADE PRIVILEGES, ALTHOUGH THE EC DELEGATION INFORMED US THAT THE LATTER HAS NEVER BEEN DONE AND THE EU FEARS THE FORMER MIGHT EXACERBATE ZIMBABWE'S ECONOMIC PROBLEMS. IMPOSITION OF SMART SANCTIONS IS NOT AN OPTION UNDER THE COTONOU AGREEMENT. ALTHOUGH THE GOZ'S INITIAL REACTION WAS SUBDUED, FOREIGN MINISTER MUDENGE SUBSEQUENTLY TOUGHENED HIS RHETORIC, LASHING OUT AT THE EU'S ISSUANCE OF "THREATS AND ULTIMATUMS" AND CRITICIZING THE UNITED KINGDOM FOR LEADING THE EU CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 03263 01 OF 02 312223Z ASTRAY. END SUMMARY. EU'S MOVE TO ARTICLE 96 DIALOGUE -------------- ¶2. (U) REFTEL REPORTS THE OCTOBER 29 DECISION BY THE EU'S GENERAL AFFAIRS COUNCIL (GAC) TO MOVE TO A TOUGHER POLITICAL DIALOGUE WITH ZIMBABWE UNDER ARTICLE 96 OF THE COTONOU AGREEMENT. POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF MET ON OCTOBER 31 WITH ALEX KREMER, DEPUTY HEAD OF DELEGATION FOR THE EUROPEAN COMMISSION IN HARARE, TO DISCUSS THE IMPLICATIONS OF THE GAC MOVE. PROCESS -------------- ¶3. (C) ACCORDING TO KREMER, THE GOVERNMENT OF ZIMBABWE LIKELY WOULD NOT BE FORMALLY NOTIFIED OF THE GAC DECISION UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK. THE OFFICIAL LETTER OF NOTIFICATION IS CURRENTLY BEING DRAFTED IN BRUSSELS EXPLAINING THE DECISION AND CONVEYING THE TERMS OF REFERENCE FOR THE PROPOSED ARTICLE 96 DIALOGUE. (NOTE: THAT LETTER IS NOT LIKELY TO BE READY UNTIL ABOUT NOVEMBER 12, ACCORDING TO EU COMMISSIONER MOSCA. END NOTE.) AFTER IT RECEIVES THE LETTER, THE GOZ WILL HAVE 15 DAYS TO DECIDE WHETHER TO PARTICIPATE. KREMER PREDICTED THAT THE ANSWER ALMOST CERTAINLY WOULD BE "YES" BUT PROBABLY WOULD NOT BE CONVEYED UNTIL DAY 14 OR ¶15. THE EU AND ZIMBABWE WOULD THEN ENGAGE IN A DIALOGUE -- WHICH CAN LAST UP TO 60 DAYS, BUT NO LONGER -- INTENDED TO ACHIEVE PROGRESS ON THE FIVE BROAD CATEGORIES OF CONCERN DESCRIBED IN THE GAC'S DECISION: ENDING POLITICAL VIOLENCE, ELECTION MONITORING, FREEDOM OF THE MEDIA, INDEPENDENCE OF THE JUDICIARY, AND ENDING ILLEGAL OCCUPATION OF PROPERTIES. THE EC DELEGATION IN HARARE HAS CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 03263 01 OF 02 312223Z RECOMMENDED THAT THE EU SHARE WITH THE GOZ SPECIFIC BENCHMARKS TO BE USED IN MEASURING PROGRESS, AND THAT THE BENCHMARKS BE LINKED TO THE SUBSTANCE OF THE ABUJA AGREEMENT. KREMER NOTED THAT NO FINAL DECISION HAD BEEN MADE ON THAT ISSUE, AS "SOME IN BRUSSELS" ARE CONCERNED THAT SHARING EXPLICIT BENCHMARKS MIGHT APPEAR TOO MUCH LIKE IMPOSING DEMANDS, AND THUS MIGHT NOT BE CONDUCIVE TO PRODUCTIVE DIALOGUE. KREMER SPECULATED THAT THE DIALOGUE WOULD MOST LIKELY BE CONDUCTED AT THE MINISTERIAL LEVEL. THIS MAKES IT EASIER FOR THE GOZ TO DRAW THE PROCESS OUT, AND THE EU DOES NOT WANT THE LEVEL OF DIALOGUE TO BE USED BY THE GOZ AS AN EXCUSE FOR LACK OF SUCCESS. "APPROPRIATE MEASURES" -------------- ¶4. (C) KREMER NOTED THAT, IF THE GOZ DECLINES TO PARTICIPATE IN THE DIALOGUE OR PARTICIPATES, BUT FAILS TO ADDRESS GENUINELY THE FIVE AREAS OF CONCERN DURING THE 60-DAY PERIOD, THE EU CAN THEN TAKE "APPROPRIATE MEASURES." SUCH MEASURES, ACCORDING TO KREMER, COULD INCLUDE REDUCTIONS IN ASSISTANCE OR SUSPENSION OF TRADE PRIVILEGES, OR BOTH. HE DOUBTED THAT THERE WOULD BE AN APPETITE WITHIN THE EU FOR IMPOSITION OF TOUGH MEASURES, EVEN IF LITTLE PROGRESS IS ACHIEVED. TRADE PRIVILEGES, HE SAID, HAVE NEVER BEEN SUSPENDED, EITHER UNDER THE COTONOU AGREEMENT OR ITS LOME PREDECESSORS. IN ADDITION, THERE IS CONCERN THAT SUSPENDING AID CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ1818 PAGE 01 HARARE 03263 02 OF 02 312223Z ACTION EUR-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AF-00 AID-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 DODE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 UTED-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 NSCE-00 OIC-02 OIG-03 OMB-01 PA-00 PC-01 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SCT-00 SP-00 IRM-00 SSO-00 SS-00 STR-00 TEST-00 TRSE-00 T-00 USIE-00 R-00 EPAE-00 SNIS-00 NISC-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 PRM-00 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /011W -------------- 383582 312224Z /69 P 311535Z OCT 01 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0168 INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY AMEMBASSY CANBERRA AMEMBASSY NAIROBI AMEMBASSY ABUJA AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS AMEMBASSY OTTAWA AMEMBASSY KINGSTON AMEMBASSY STOCKHOLM AMEMBASSY OSLO AMEMBASSY COPENHAGEN C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 003263 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 03263 02 OF 02 312223Z BRUSSELS ALSO FOR USEU LONDON FOR GURNEY PARIS FOR NEARY NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER E.O. 12958: DECL. 10/31/11 TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM ZI SUBJECT: EU'S NEXT STEPS ON ZIMBABWE -- MOST OF WHICH GOES TO BASIC EDUCATION, COMMUNITY LEVEL DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMS, AND COMBATTING AIDS -- MIGHT WORSEN THE ALREADY DIFFICULT ECONOMIC PLIGHT OF ORDINARY ZIMBABWEANS. KREMER POINTED OUT THAT IMPOSITION OF SO-CALLED SMART SANCTIONS, TARGETING PRESIDENT MUGABE, HIS INNER CIRCLE, AND THEIR FAMILIES, IS NOT AN OPTION UNDER THE COTONOU AGREEMENT. INDIVIDUAL EU MEMBERS, NOT THE EC ITSELF, WOULD HAVE TO TAKE THE INITIATIVE IN PURSUING SUCH AN APPROACH UNDER THE EU'S COMMON FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY. LIKELY SCENARIOS -------------- ¶5. (C) ASKED HOW HE THOUGHT THE ARTICLE 96 PROCESS WOULD UNFOLD, KREMER OFFERED TWO POSSIBLE SCENARIOS. THE GOZ WOULD AGREE TO THE DIALOGUE, WHICH WOULD ACHIEVE NO PROGRESS FOR 59 DAYS. ON THE 60TH DAY, THE GOZ WOULD THROW THE EU A BONE, SUCH AS ISSUING AN INVITATION TO ELECTION OBSERVERS, FORCING THE EU TO POSTPONE ANY DECISION ON SANCTIONS. A SECOND POSSIBILITY IS THAT THE GOZ TAKES NO STEPS WHATSOEVER TO ADDRESS EU CONCERNS, CAUSING THE EU TO SUSPEND ONE OR TWO AID PROJECTS, BUT TO AVOID A LARGE-SCALE ASSISTANCE CUTOFF, FOR THE REASONS ELABORATED IN PARAGRAPH 4. CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 03263 02 OF 02 312223Z GOVERNMENT'S REACTION -------------- ¶6. (C) ALTHOUGH THE EU HAS NOT YET FORMALLY NOTIFIED THE GOZ OF ITS DECISION ON ARTICLE 96, THE MOVE HAS BEEN WIDELY COVERED IN THE LOCAL PRESS. THE INITIAL PUBLIC REACTION OF FOREIGN MINISTER MUDENGE, THE GOZ'S PRIMARY INTERLOCUTOR WITH THE EU OF LATE, WAS SURPRISINGLY SUBDUED. IN THE OCTOBER 30 EDITION OF THE GOZ- CONTROLLED "THE HERALD," MUDENGE CALLED THE EU DECISION "PROCEDURAL," AND SAID "I AM READY TO DISCUSS WITH THEM UNDER ARTICLE 96. ZIMBABWE IS READY FOR THE CONSULTATIONS...AT THE MOMENT WE GO WITH AN OPEN MIND." THE FOREIGN MINISTER'S RHETORIC TOUGHENED CONSIDERABLY THE FOLLOWING DAY, HOWEVER, AS MUDENGE LASHED OUT AT THE EU FOR ISSUING "THREATS AND ULTIMATUMS" AND BLAMED THE BRITISH FOR MOBILIZING THE EU AGAINST ZIMBABWE. "WE WILL NOT ACT ON THE BASIS OF THREATS AND ULTIMATUMS," HE SAID, AND STRESSED THAT FOREIGN OBSERVERS WOULD NOT BE PERMITTED TO MONITOR ZIMBABWE'S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, BUT ONLY TO OBSERVE IT. KREMER JOKED TO US THAT MUDENGE'S CONCILIATORY INITIAL REMARKS LIKELY PRECEDED CONSULTATIONS WITH PRESIDENT MUGABE. COMMENT -------------- ¶7. (C) WE SHARE KREMER'S ASSESSMENT THAT THE GOZ LIKELY WILL AGREE TO THE ARTICLE 96 DIALOGUE, BUT WILL THEN DELAY ADDRESSING THE EU'S CONCERNS AS LONG AS POSSIBLE, PERHAPS MAKING A MINOR CONCESSION OR TWO AT THE LAST MINUTE. IT DOES NOT APPEAR AS IF THE EU HAS MANY POLICY OPTIONS ON WHICH IT CAN DRAW IF THE 60-DAY DIALOGUE FAILS COMPLETELY. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT MOST CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 03263 02 OF 02 312223Z DEVELOPMENTS ABOUT WHICH THE EU IS CONCERNED ARE KEY ELEMENTS OF THE GOZ'S ELECTORAL STRATEGY, AREAS THE GOVERNMENT WILL BE LOATHE TO CHANGE UNTIL AFTER ELECTIONS. THE ABOVE NOTWITHSTANDING, THE EU DECISION INCREASES PRESSURE ON ZIMBABWE AND MAKES CLEARER TO ALL -- INCLUDING THE ZIMBABWEAN PUBLIC -- THAT THE COUNTRY'S DISASTROUS COURSE IS BROADLY CONDEMNED. ¶8. (C) TIME IS WORKING IN THE GOZ'S FAVOR, SINCE THE ARTICLE 96 TIMELINE WILL NOT HAVE RUN ITS COURSE UNTIL LATE JANUARY WITH ELECTIONS LOOMING, POSSIBLY JUST WEEKS AWAY. EU COMMISSIONER MOSCA TOLD THE AMBASSADOR SHE RECOGNIZED THAT THE 60-DAY PERIOD ENDS TOO LATE FOR TIMELY PRESSURE ON ELECTION ISSUES, AND SHE WAS OPEN TO FINDING OTHER MEANS FOR PRESSING FOR EARLY AND EFFECTIVE ELECTION OBSERVATION AND REDUCTION OF POLITICAL VIOLENCE. IN THE MEANTIME, THE GOZ STRATEGY APPEARS TO BE "DIVIDE AND CONQUER," DEMONIZING THE BRITISH FOR LEADING THEIR CONTINENTAL BRETHREN ASTRAY. THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE GOZ ATTEMPT TO PORTRAY AN AFRICAN/NON-AFRICAN SPLIT IN THE COMMONWEALTH OVER ABUJA IMPLEMENTATION, A PLOY THAT HAS FOOLED NO ONE. WE DO NOT THINK THAT IT PLAYS WELL EVEN ON MAIN STREET HERE. SULLIVAN CONFIDENTIAL >