AF PDAS DISCUSSES ZIMBABWE CRISIS WITH MDC LEADER AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 HARARE 003250 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER BRUSSELS ALSO FOR USEU LONDON FOR GURNEY PARIS FOR NEARY NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER E.O. 12958: DECL. 10/29/11 TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM ZI SUBJECT: AF PDAS DISCUSSES ZIMBABWE CRISIS WITH MDC LEADER AND OTHER KEY NON-GOVERNMENTAL PLAYERS CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF MATT HARRINGTON. REASONS: 1.5 (B) AND (D). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) AF PDAS MARK BELLAMY MET WITH A WIDE RANGE OF INDIVIDUALS AND ORGANIZATIONS OUTSIDE GOVERNMENT, INCLUDING MDC PRESIDENT MORGAN TSVANGIRAI, THE COMMERCIAL FARMERS UNION, AND OTHER KEY PLAYERS DURING A TWO-DAY VISIT TO HARARE OCTOBER 24-26. MANY OF HIS INTERLOCUTORS INDICATED THAT GOVERNMENT-SANCTIONED POLITICAL VIOLENCE AND INTIMIDATION, AND HUMAN RIGHTS ABUSES, HAVE CONTINUED UNABATED SINCE THE SIGNING OF THE ABUJA AGREEMENT IN EARLY SEPTEMBER. SEVERAL URGED THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY TO INSIST THAT THE GOZ MEET SPECIFIC MINIMUM ELECTION STANDARDS OR BE PREPARED FOR THE FACT THAT THE ELECTION RESULT WOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED LEGITIMATE. TSVANGIRAI PRESSED FOR THE IMPOSITION OF TARGETED SANCTIONS NOW, SAYING SUCH A MOVE COULD BE AN EFFECTIVE WARNING TO THE GOZ ON THE NEED FOR FREE AND FAIR ELECTIONS. THE MDC LEADER CONFIRMED ONGOING LOW-LEVEL TALKS WITH ZANU-PF, BUT WAS SKEPTICAL THEY WOULD LEAD ANYWHERE AS PRESIDENT MUGABE IS MORE INTERESTED IN GOING IT ALONE THAN IN ENGAGING IN REAL DIALOGUE ABOUT THE WAY FORWARD. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (U) DURING HIS OCTOBER 24-26 VISIT TO HARARE, AF PRINCIPAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 03250 01 OF 04 310726Z DEPUTY ASSISTANT SECRETARY OF STATE MARK BELLAMY MET SEPARATELY WITH MDC LEADER MORGAN TSVANGIRAI, SUPREME COURT JUSTICE WILSON SANDURA, CATHOLIC PRIEST FATHER FIDELIS MUKONORI, LEADERS OF THE COMMERCIAL FARMERS UNION, AND A RANGE OF CIVIL SOCIETY LEADERS. BELLAMY WAS ACCOMPANIED BY AMBASSADOR SULLIVAN AND POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF. FATHER FIDELIS MUKONORI -------------- ¶3. (C) IN A CONVERSATION OVER BREAKFAST WITH FATHER FIDELIS MUKONORI, LEADER OF ZIMBABWE'S JESUITS AND A LONG-TIME CONFIDANT OF PRESIDENT MUGABE, THE PDAS NOTED LITTLE PROGRESS IN IMPLEMENTATION OF ABUJA, AND ASKED WHETHER THE GOZ HAD ANY INTENTION OF HONORING ITS ABUJA COMMITMENTS. YES, FIDELIS REPONDED, BUT THEY HAD TO BE PROVIDED WITH POLITICAL COVER. ABUJA, HE SAID, IS ABOUT MORE THAN COMPENSATION TO COMMERCIAL FARMERS. IT MEANS POTENTIAL STABILITY TO THE GOZ, BY HOLDING OUT THE PROSPECT OF ENSURING THAT RESETTLED FAMILIES ARE PROVIDED WITH THE NECESSARY RESOURCES TO EARN A LIVING. THE GOZ, HE SAID, REALIZES THAT IT HAS MADE SERIOUS MISTAKES, BUT IT IS NOT USED TO BEGGING AND IS TRYING TO SAVE FACE. THE LAND ISSUE, MUKONORI INSISTED, WILL NOT GO AWAY REGARDLESS OF WHO WINS THE 2002 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION. ¶4. (C) THE UNITED STATES, AMBASSADOR SULLIVAN REPLIED, RECOGNIZES THE IMPORTANCE OF LAND REFORM. IT WANTS TO PROVIDE ASSISTANCE BUT WOULD DO SO ONLY IF THE PROCESS IS LEGAL, RATIONAL, AND ORDERLY. BELLAMY AGREED, BUT EMPHASIZED THAT THE USG IS MOST CONCERNED ABOUT GOZ-SANCTIONED POLITICAL INTIMIDATION AND VIOLENCE WHICH APPEARS DESIGNED TO ENSURE THAT PRESIDENT MUGABE REMAINS IN CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 03250 01 OF 04 310726Z OFFICE. THE USG, HE SAID, IS TRYING TO DETERMINE HOW IT CAN PLAY A CONSTRUCTIVE ROLE UNDER SUCH CIRCUMSTANCES. SOME IN THE U.S., HE REPORTED, ARE PRESSING FOR THE IMPOSITION OF TARGETED PERSONAL SANCTIONS AS THE MOST APPROPRIATE U.S. RESPONSE. MUKONORI EXPRESSED HIS VIEW THAT TARGETED SANCTIONS WOULD BE COUNTERPRODUCTIVE, AS THEY WOULD "MAKE MUGABE A HERO WITHIN HIS PARTY." BESIDES, MUGABE HAS BEEN "HARDENED BY INCARCERATIONS AND WAR" AND WOULD BE UNLIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BY SUCH MEASURES. HE WARNED AGAINST DEMONIZING AN INDIVIDUAL, AND CLAIMED THAT THE ZIMBABWEAN PRESIDENT WAS ILL-SERVED BY SYCOPHANTIC ADVISORS. ASKED WHETHER MUGABE WOULD RESPECT THE ELECTION RESULT IF HE LOSES, MUKONORI DID NOT ANSWER DIRECTLY. INSTEAD, HE REPORTED THAT HE HAS BEEN CHAIRING LOW-LEVEL TALKS BETWEEN ZANU-PF AND THE MDC, IN WHICH HE HAS TRIED TO REASSURE BOTH SIDES THAT THEY HAVE A FUTURE IF THEY LOSE THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION. PROGRESS IN THESE TALKS HAS BEEN "SLOW," MUKONORI LAMENTED. JUSTICE WILSON SANDURA -------------- ¶5. (C) SUPREME COURT JUSTICE WILSON SANDURA SAID HE HAD PREFERRED CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ8508 PAGE 01 HARARE 03250 02 OF 04 310726Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 INL-00 USNW-00 DODE-00 WHA-00 DS-00 EAP-00 EUR-00 VC-00 TEDE-00 INR-00 LAB-01 VCE-00 NSAE-00 IRM-00 SSO-00 SS-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /003W -------------- 37C2E1 310730Z /38 P 310637Z OCT 01 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0156 INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY AMEMBASSY CANBERRA AMEMBASSY NAIROBI AMEMBASSY ABUJA AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS AMEMBASSY OTTAWA AMEMBASSY KINGSTON AMEMBASSY STOCKHOLM AMEMBASSY OSLO AMEMBASSY COPENHAGEN C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 04 HARARE 003250 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER BRUSSELS ALSO FOR USEU LONDON FOR GURNEY PARIS FOR NEARY NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 03250 02 OF 04 310726Z E.O. 12958: DECL. 10/29/11 TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM ZI SUBJECT: AF PDAS DISCUSSES ZIMBABWE CRISIS WITH MDC LEADER AND OTHER KEY NON-GOVERNMENTAL PLAYERS TO MEET AT THE EMBASSY TO AVOID THE INEVITABLE FLOOD OF QUESTIONS HE WOULD HAVE RECEIVED IF U.S. DIPLOMATS HAD COME TO HIS OFFICE. HE REFERRED TO THESE AS "DIFFICULT TIMES" FOR THE JUDICIARY AND RECOUNTED NUMEROUS INCIDENTS OF INTIMIDATION AGAINST JUDGES, INCLUDING THE INVASION OF THE SUPREME COURT BY WAR VETERANS. SANDURA SAID THE INTIMIDATION INTENSIFIED AFTER THE COURT DECLARED UNCONSTITUTIONAL THE GOVERNMENT'S FAST TRACK LAND EFFORT IN DECEMBER 2000. THE COURT'S RULING, SANDURA INSISTED, CANNOT BE CRITICIZED ON LEGAL GROUNDS, ONLY ON THE POLITICAL BASIS THAT IT DOES NOT PERMIT THE GOVERNMENT TO DO WHAT IT WANTS. THE INTIMIDATION, HE SAID, WAS DESINED TO PRESSURE JUDGES INTO ISSUING SYMPATHETIC RULINGS; WHEN THAT DID NOT WORK, THE GOZ TRIED TO USH SANDURA AND HIS COLLEAGUES OUT INDIVIDUALLY. ¶6. (C) SANDURA SAID HE IS THE MOST SENIOR JUDGE N ZIMBABWE, AFTER JUSTICE MCNALLY, WHO RETIRES I DECEMBER, AND SHOULD HAVE BEEN THE NATURAL CHOICE FOR THE CHIEF JUSTICE POSITION AFTER THE FORCED RETIREMENT OF ANTHONY GUBBAY. INSTEAD, "FOR OBVIOUS REASONS," THE GOZ APPOINTED GODFREY CHIDYAUSIKU, WHO IS "MORE A POLITICIAN THAN A JUDGE" AND WHO IS JUNIOR TO ALL OF THE OTHER JUDGES ON THE SUPREME COURT. ¶7. (C) SANDURA NOTED THAT THE GOZ HAD RECENTLY APPOINTED THREE NEW JUSTICES TO THE SUPREME COURT. DID THE GOVERNMENT NOW HAVE A COURT IT IS COMFORTABLE WITH, BELLAMY ASKED? TWO OF THE NEW APPOINTEES -- JUSTICES MALABA AND CHEDA -- HAVE BEEN ALLOCATED CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 03250 02 OF 04 310726Z LAND UNDER FAST TRACK, SANDURA POINTED OUT. HOW COULD INDIVIDUALS WHO HAVE BENEFITTED FROM A PROGRAM ADJUDICATE THE LEGALITY OF THAT PROGRAM, SANDURA ASKED? THAT SAID, HE WAS NOT CONVINCED THAT MALABA AND CHEDA WOULD RULE WITH CHIDYAUSIKU IN EVERY CASE, ALTHOUGH HE ASSESSED JUSTICE VERNANDA ZIYAMBI TOBE FIRMLY IN THE NEW CHIEF JUSTICE'S CAMP. SANDURA NOTED THAT THE COURT, IN WHICH FOUR OF THE FIV JUSTICES WHO SAT WERE RECENT APPOINTEES, ISSUED AN INTERIM ORDER ALLOWING THE GOZ TO PROCEED WITH CQUIRING FARMS LISTED FOR COMPULSORY ACQUISITIONPRIOR TO JUNE 30. HE PREDICTED THAT CHIDYAUSIKU WOULD BIDE HIS TIME AND NOT ISSUE A FINAL RULING N THE CONSTITUTIONALITY OF THE FAST TRACK PROGRAM NTIL SOMETIME NEXT YEAR, MUCH CLOSER TO THE PRESDENTIAL ELECTION. ASKED WHETHER HE INTENDED TO EMAIN ON THE COURT, DESPITE ITS POLITICIZATION, SANDURA REPLIED IN THE AFFIRMATIVE. LUNCH WITH USID CORE PARTNERS -------------- ¶8. (C) USAID'S CORE PARTNERS, COMPRISING LEADIN CIVIL SOCIETY ORGANIZATIONS, DESCRIBED CONTINUIG POLITICAL VIOLENCE AND SUGGESTED SPECIFIC DIPLOMATIC STEPS THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY OUGHT TO URSUE. TONY REELER, DIRECTOR OF ONE OF ZIMBABWE'SMOST PROMINENT HUMAN RIGHTS ORGANIZATIONS, AMANITRUST, EXPRESSED CONCERN ABOUT THE ABUJA AGREEMET'S FOCUS ON LAND. WINNING THE ELECTION IS THE OVERARCHING OBJECTIVE FOR THE GOVERNMENT OF ZIMBABE, AND ABUJA IS MERELY A DELAYING TACTIC FROM HARAE'S PERSPECTIVE. THE LEVEL OF POLITICAL VIOLENC HAS NOT DECREASED ONE IOTA SINCE THE SIGNING OF THE ABUJA AGREEMENT, REELER ASSERTED. LYDIA ZIGOMO, HEAD OF ZIMBABWE WOMEN LAWYERS FOR HUMAN RIGHTS, AGREED. SHE CLAIMED THAT THE GOZ IS ESTABLISHING "REEDUCATION CAMPS" IN RURAL AREAS WHERE GIRLS FROM NEARBY AREAS CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 03250 02 OF 04 310726Z ARE FORCED TO SERVE AS COOKS AND SUBJECTED TO SEXUAL ABUSE. ZIGOMO ADDED AN ADDITIONAL CONCERN THAT THE GOZ IS CONDUCTING AN AGGRESSIVE CLAMPDOWN ON NGOS AND THEIR ACTIVITIES NATIONWIDE. REGINALD MATCHABA-HOVE, CHAIRMAN OF THE ZIMBABWE ELECTION SUPPORT NETWORK (ZESN),SAID HE HAD ADVISED NGOS TO OPEN OFF-SHORE BANK ACCOUNTS AS A PALLIATIVE MEASURE IN CASE THE GOZ DECIDES TO TAMPER WITH THEIR DOMESTIC ACCOUNTS. ¶9. (C) SARAH CHIUMBU, DIRECTOR OF THE MEDIA INSTITUTE OF SOUTHERN AFRICA (MISA),SHARED HER CONCERN THAT INFORMATION MINISTER JONATHAN MOYO CONTINUES TO USE THE STATE MEDIA AS HIS PERSONAL VEHICLE AND THAT EQUAL ACCESS TO THE MEDIA FOR ALL PARTIES IS AN UNACHIEVABLE OBJECTIVE UNDER CURRENT CIRCUMSTANCES. CHIUMBU ALSO EXPRESSED CONCERN ABOUT ONGOING HARASSMENT OF JOURNALISTS, A PARTICULARLY SERIOUS PROBLEM IN RURAL AREAS, AND ABOUT GOVERNMENT'S INTENTION TO BAR NGOS FROM CONDUCTING VOTER EDUCATION. EILEEN SAWYER, EXECUTIVE-DIRECTOR OF THE LEGAL RESOURCES FOUNDATION (LRF),SAID THE RECENTLY-PASSED CITIZENSHIP ACT AMENDMENT, WHICH REQUIRES THOSE HOLDING DUAL CITIZENSHIP TO RENOUNCE THEIR CLAIM TO CITIZENSHIP FROM ZIMBABWE OR THE SECOND CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ8509 PAGE 01 HARARE 03250 03 OF 04 310726Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 DODE-00 WHA-00 DS-00 EAP-00 EUR-00 VC-00 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 LAB-01 VCE-00 NSAE-00 IRM-00 SSO-00 SS-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /003W -------------- 37C2E5 310730Z /38 P 310637Z OCT 01 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0157 INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY AMEMBASSY CANBERRA AMEMBASSY NAIROBI AMEMBASSY ABUJA AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS AMEMBASSY OTTAWA AMEMBASSY KINGSTON AMEMBASSY STOCKHOLM AMEMBASSY OSLO AMEMBASSY COPENHAGEN C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 04 HARARE 003250 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER BRUSSELS ALSO FOR USEU LONDON FOR GURNEY PARIS FOR NEARY NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 03250 03 OF 04 310726Z E.O. 12958: DECL. 10/29/11 TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM ZI SUBJECT: AF PDAS DISCUSSES ZIMBABWE CRISIS WITH MDC LEADER AND OTHER KEY NON-GOVERNMENTAL PLAYERS COUNTRY, COULD DISENFRANCHISE ONE-AND-A-HALF MILLION PEOPLE, MOSTLY COMMERCIAL FARMWORKERS. THE LRF HAS, THEREFORE, FILED A CLASS-ACTION LAWSUIT CHALLENGING THE LAW'S CONSTITUTIONALITY. ¶10. (C) REELER URGED THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY TO DELIVER A MESSAGE TO THE GOZ, IN THE STRONGEST POSSIBLE TERMS, THAT THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION MUST MEET CERTAIN MINIMUM STANDARDS OR ELSE THE OUTCOME WOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED LEGITIMATE. SUCH A MESSAGE COULD BE VERY EFFECTIVE, REELER THOUGHT, SINCE LEGITIMACY IS IMPORTANT TO MUGABE. HE NOTED THAT MOST ZIMBABWEAN VOTERS ARE WAITING ANXIOUSLY TO CAST BALLOTS NEXT YEAR, AND THEY WANT THEIR VOTES TO COUNT. IF THE ELECTION IS STOLEN, THEREFORE, THERE COULD BE AN UPSURGE IN VIOLENCE. MATCHABA-HOVE AGREED, AND ASSERTED THAT A SLIM VICTORY BY EITHER PARTY COULD SPARK SERIOUS UNREST. HE POINTED OUT THAT THE GOZ HAS DIFFICULTY SAYING "NO" TO OTHER AFRICANS AND ENCOURAGED THE UNITED STATES TO PRESS NIGERIAN PRESIDENT OBASANJO TO CONTINUE PLAYING AN ACTIVE AND CONSTRUCTIVE ROLE IN ZIMBABWE. COMMERCIAL FARMERS UNION -------------- ¶11. (C) COMMERCIAL FARMERS UNION (CFU) DIRECTOR DAVID HASLUCK TOLD BELLAMY THE CFU WELCOMED THE ABUJA AGREEMENT, AS IT PROVIDED EVIDENCE OF GOZ POLITICAL COMMITMENT THAT PREVIOUSLY HAD BEEN CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 03250 03 OF 04 310726Z LACKING, AND SPELLED OUT BROADER PRINCIPLES WHICH, IF ADHERED TO, WOULD MAKE ZIMBABWE LIVEABLE FOR ALL CITIZENS ONCE AGAIN. THE PROBLEM, HOWEVER, IS THAT ABUJA HAS NOT BEEN IMPLEMENTED. ACCORDING TO HASLUCK, THE SITUATION ON COMMERCIAL FARMS IS MUCH WORSE THAN ON SEPTEMBER 6, THE DAY OF THE ABUJA MEETING. FARM INVASIONS AND PARTICULARLY WORK STOPPAGES CONTINUE TO BE A SERIOUS PROBLEM, HE SAID. BELLAMY ASKED WHETHER THE CFU'S MEMBERS WERE ABLE TO FARM, DESPITE THE OCCUPATIONS, AND HOW SERIOUSLY OVERALL PRODUCTION IS BEING AFFECTED. THERE IS A RANGE OF SITUATIONS, HASLUCK REPLIED. SOME FARMERS HAVE BEEN DRIVEN OFF THEIR PROPERTIES COMPLETELY, WHILE OTHERS ARE TRYING TO FARM AROUND THE OCCUPIERS. CFU DEPUTY DIRECTOR MALCOLM VOWLES ADDED THAT MORE THAN ONE-THIRD OF COMMERCIAL FARMERS ARE CURRENTLY UNABLE TO UNDERTAKE NORMAL FARMING OPERATIONS, WITH CUTBACKS RANGING FROM 10 TO 100 PERCENT. ¶12. (C) THE AMBASSADOR ASKED WHAT WOULD CONVINCE THE CFU THAT THE GOZ IS SERIOUS ABOUT IMPLEMENTING ABUJA. WOULD REMOVING OCCUPIERS BE SUFFICIENT? THE GOVERNMENT WOULD NOT EVEN HAVE TO GO THAT FAR, CFU PRESIDENT COLIN CLOETE REPLIED. SIMPLY ALLOWING FARMING OPERATIONS TO PROCEED UNHINDERED WOULD BE A HUGE STEP FORWARD. ASKED WHAT THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY COULD DO THAT IT WAS NOT ALREADY DOING, CFU VICE-PRESIDENT WILLIAM HUGHES SAID IT IS CRUCIAL TO PRESS THE GOZ TO ABIDE BY THE RULE OF LAW, A GOAL SPECIFICALLY ADDRESSED IN THE ABUJA AGREEMENT. CLOETE ADDED THAT THE GOZ IS CLEARLY FOCUSED ONLY ON THAT PORTION OF THE AGREEMENT REQUIRING THE BRITISH TO COME UP WITH FUNDS FOR LAND REFORM, WHILE CHOOSING TO IGNORE THE REFERENCES TO RESTORING THE RULE OF LAW. VOWLES NOTED THAT THERE IS CURRENTLY A CREDIBLE LAND REFORM PROGRAM ON THE TABLE -- THE ZIMBABWE JOINT RESETTLEMENT INITIATIVE -- UNDER WHICH FARMERS HAVE OFFERED THE GOZ ONE MILLION HECTARES CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 03250 03 OF 04 310726Z FOR RESETTLEMENT. THE GOZ, HE SAID, HAS ACCEPTED THE PLAN IN PRINCIPLE AND IT HAS BEEN ENDORSED BY THE WORLD BANK AND UNDP. ASKED WHY THIS PROGRAM HAS NOT BEEN IMPLEMENTED, HASLUCK SAID THE GOVERNMENT IS NOT INTERESTED IN GENUINE LAND REFORM. THE FAST TRACK EFFORT, HE SAID, IS ALL ABOUT COERCING VOTES FOR THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION. MDC PRESIDENT MORGAN TSVANGIRAI -------------- ¶13. (C) MDC LEADER MORGAN TSVANGIRAI PRESSED FOR THE IMPOSITION OF TARGETED PERSONAL SANCTIONS AS A WARNING -- A "YELLOW CARD" -- TO THE GOZ TO ENSURE THAT ZIMBABWEANS ARE ALLOWED TO CAST THEIR VOTES FREELY AND TO ABIDE BY THE ELECTION OUTCOME. TSVANGIRAI ADVOCATED THE SUBSEQUENT IMPOSITION OF COMPREHENSIVE SANCTIONS -- THE RED CARD -- IF THE ELECTION IS "SUBVERTED." ASKED HIS VIEW ON THE VALUE OF DIRECT TALKS BETWEEN THE MDC AND ZANU-PF TO AGREE ON A WAY FORWARD, TSVANGIRAI SAID ZIMBABWE NEEDS A POLITICAL CULTURE WHICH PERMITS THAT KIND OF DIALOGUE. UNFORTUNATELY, PRESIDENT MUGABE DOES NOT RECOGNIZE THE LEGITIMACY OF THE MDC. TSVANGIRAI SAID HE HAD WRITTEN TO HIM TWICE PROPOSING SUCH A DIALOGUE ON CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ8510 PAGE 01 HARARE 03250 04 OF 04 310726Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 INL-00 DODE-00 WHA-00 DS-00 EAP-00 EUR-00 VC-00 TEDE-00 INR-00 LAB-01 VCE-00 NSAE-00 SSO-00 SS-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /003W -------------- 37C2E7 310730Z /38 P 310637Z OCT 01 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0158 INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY AMEMBASSY CANBERRA AMEMBASSY NAIROBI AMEMBASSY ABUJA AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS AMEMBASSY OTTAWA AMEMBASSY KINGSTON AMEMBASSY STOCKHOLM AMEMBASSY OSLO AMEMBASSY COPENHAGEN C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 04 OF 04 HARARE 003250 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER BRUSSELS ALSO FOR USEU LONDON FOR GURNEY PARIS FOR NEARY NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 03250 04 OF 04 310726Z E.O. 12958: DECL. 10/29/11 TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM ZI SUBJECT: AF PDAS DISCUSSES ZIMBABWE CRISIS WITH MDC LEADER AND OTHER KEY NON-GOVERNMENTAL PLAYERS CRITICAL NATIONAL ISSUES SUCH AS LAND, THE ECONOMY, AND CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM, BUT MUGABE HAS NOT RESPONDED. THE MDC PRESIDENT ACKNOWLEDGED THAT LOW-LEVEL TALKS BETWEEN THE TWO PARTIES ARE GOING ON, BROKERED BY FATHER FIDELIS MUKONORI, BUT THEY ARE EXPLORATORY AND HAVE ACCOMPLISHED LITTLE. ¶14. (C) BELLAMY REPORTED THAT THERE NOW IS MUCH MORE ANXIETY AMONG ZIMBABWE'S NEIGHBORS THAN THERE WAS DURING HIS MARCH 2001 VISIT. MALAWIAN PRESIDENT MULUZI, FOR EXAMPLE, WAS QUITE OUTSPOKEN ABOUT HIS CONCERNS AND BELIEVES MUCH MORE PRESSURE MUST BE BROUGHT TO BEAR ON THE GOZ, PARTICULARLY ON THE IMPORTANCE OF ENSURING FREE AND FAIR ELECTIONS. TSVANGIRAI SAID HE HAD SEEN A DRAMATIC CHANGE AMONG SADC MEMBERS, WHO NOW HAVE A MUCH BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF DEVELOPMENTS HERE, AND HE PRAISED SADC PRESIDENTS FOR BEING MORE ATTENTIVE TO ZIMBABWE'S DIFFICULTIES. ASKED WHETHER THE MDC IS IN REGULAR CONTACT WITH SADC NEIGHBORS, TSVANGIRAI SAID THEY ARE IN "CONSTANT" COMMUNICATION WITH THE SIPDIS SOUTH AFRICANS, VIA THEIR EMBASSY IN HARARE. THE OTHER EMBASSIES, THOUGH, HAVE "KEPT THEIR DISTANCE." ¶15. (C) TSVANGIRAI CONFIRMED THAT HE CONTINUES TO HOLD DISCREET DISCUSSIONS WITH MILITARY OFFICERS. ASKED WHETHER HE WAS CONFIDENT THAT THE MILITARY WOULD ABIDE BY THE ELECTION RESULTS IF HE WERE TO WIN, TSVANGIRAI SAID HE WAS MORE CONCERNED ABOUT THE LIKELY REACTION OF WAR VETERANS AROUND THE COUNTRY, WHO ARE BEING CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 03250 04 OF 04 310726Z ISSUED LARGE NUMBERS OF WEAPONS FROM THE ARMY'S ARMS DEPOTS. THE MDC PRESIDENT PREDICTED THAT HE WOULD WIN 65-70 PERCENT OF THE NATIONAL VOTE NEXT YEAR, DEPENDING ON TURNOUT. COMMENT -------------- ¶16. (C) BELLAMY'S INTERLOCUTORS PROVIDED A COMPELLING PICTURE OF ONGOING POLITICAL VIOLENCE AND HUMAN RIGHTS VIOLATIONS, DESPITE THE GOZ'S COMMITMENTS AT ABUJA. WE AGREE THAT PRESIDENT MUGABE'S OVERARCHING OBJECTIVE IS WINNING THE ELECTION, AND THAT FAST TRACK IS BEING WIELDED PRIMARILY AS A TOOL OF INTIMIDATION AGAINST SUSPECTED OPPOSITION SUPPORTERS. IN THAT LIGHT, WE WOULD ARGUE IT IS CRITICAL THAT WE SECURE CONSENSUS AMONG KEY PLAYERS --SADC, THE EU, AND THE COMMONWEALTH -- ON MINIMUM STANDARDS WE EXPECT THE GOVERNMENT TO ADHERE TO IN THE UPCOMING ELECTION, AND PRESENT THOSE EXPECTATIONS IN A UNIFIED DIPLOMATIC APPROACH TO THE GOZ. SINCE THE SADC PARLIAMENTARY FORUM ENDORSED AN EXCELLENT SET OF ELECTORAL STANDARDS IN MARCH 2001 AT A MEETING ATTENDED BY SPEAKER OF PARLIAMENT EMMERSON MNANGAGWA, TWO MEMBERS OF PARLIAMENT FROM ZANU-PF AND ONE FROM THE MDC, WE WOULD RECOMMEND THAT OUR DEMARCHE DRAW EXCLUSIVELY FROM THAT DOCUMENT. SUCH AN APPROACH TO THE GOZ SHOULD MAKE IT CLEAR THAT AN ELECTION WHICH DOES NOT MEET THOSE STANDARDS WILL BE CONSIDERED ILLEGITIMATE. SADC PARTICIPATION IN SUCH AN EFFORT IS CRUCIAL, AS MUGABE DOES CARE WHAT HIS NEIGHBORS THINK, AND MIGHT PAUSE AT THE PROSPECT OF ACHIEVING VICTORY AT ALL COSTS IF ONE OF THE COSTS IS SADC'S REJECTION OF THE ELECTION OUTCOME. SULLIVAN CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 03250 04 OF 04 310726Z CONFIDENTIAL >