TSVANGIRAI EMERGES UNSCATHED FROM ATTACK ON HIS VEHICLE;

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 003062 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER LONDON FOR GURNEY PARIS FOR NEARY NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER E.O. 12958: DECL. 10/15/11 TAGS: PGOV PHUM ZI SUBJECT: TSVANGIRAI EMERGES UNSCATHED FROM ATTACK ON HIS VEHICLE; MDC SUSPENDS FOUR MPS CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF MATT HARRINGTON. REASONS: 1.5 (B) AND (D). REF: HARARE 2239 SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE (MDC) PRESIDENT MORGAN TSVANGIRAI ESCAPED INJURY ON OCTOBER 12 AFTER HIS CONVOY WAS SIPDIS ATTACKED BY STONE-THROWING ZANU-PF SUPPORTERS. TWO WINDOWS IN HIS VEHICLE WERE SHATTERED AND THE VEHICLE'S BODY WAS DAMAGED. POLICE WERE UNHELPFUL AND FAILED TO ARREST OR CHARGE ANY OF THE PERPETRATORS. THE ZANU-PF SUPPORTERS APPEARED TO HAVE PRIOR KNOWLEDGE OF THE CONVOY'S ROUTE AND TIMING. IN AN UNRELATED DEVELOPMENT, FOUR MDC MEMBERS OF PARLIAMENT WERE ON OCTOBER 13 TEMPORARILY SUSPENDED FROM THE PARTY'S NATIONAL EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE PENDING AN INVESTIGATION INTO THEIR ROLE IN FACTIONAL DISPUTES SIMMERING FOR ALMOST A MONTH. END SUMMARY. ATTACK ON TSVANGIRAI -------------- ¶2. (C) ON OCTOBER 12, THE VEHICLE IN WHICH MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE (MDC) LEADER MORGAN TSVANGIRAI WAS RIDING WAS ATTACKED BY A STONE-THROWING MOB. MDC SECRETARY-GENERAL WELSHMAN NCUBE, TOLD US THAT TSVANGIRAI HAD BEEN ON HIS WAY TO ADDRESS PARTY OFFICIALS IN SANYATI, SEVERAL HUNDRED KILOMETERS WEST OF HARARE, WHEN APPROXIMATELY SEVENTY YOUTHS EMERGED FROM THE BUSHES AND BLOCKED THE ROAD. THEY THREW STONES AND STICKS, SHATTERING TWO WINDOWS IN TSVANGIRAI'S VEHICLE, INCLUDING THE ONE IN THE REAR NEXT TO THE SEAT IN WHICH THE OPPOSITION LEADER WAS SITTING. TWO STONES LANDED IN THE BACKSEAT BESIDE TSVANGIRAI. ACCORDING TO CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 03062 01 OF 02 151553Z NCUBE, THE MOB DISPERSED AFTER A BODYGUARD IN THE SECOND CAR FIRED A PISTOL IN THE AIR. ¶3. (C) THE CONVOY SPED TO THE NEAREST POLICE STATION, IN KADOMA, TO REPORT THE INCIDENT. NCUBE TOLD US THAT THE POLICE APPEARED COMPLETELY INDIFFERENT AND ONLY SEEMED INTERESTED IN FINDING OUT WHO HAD DISCHARGED THE PISTOL. NONE OF THE MDC REPRESENTATIVES HAD MENTIONED THAT A SHOT HAD BEEN FIRED, AND THUS THEY ASSUMED THAT THE POLICE HAD WITNESSED WHAT HAD TAKEN PLACE. NONE OF THE PERPETRATORS HAS BEEN DETAINED OR CHARGED. ¶4. (C) FORTUNATELY, NEITHER TSVANGIRAI NOR ANYONE ACCOMPANYING HIM WAS HURT. WHEN POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF ASKED WHETHER THE MDC CONSIDERED THIS AN ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT, TSVANGIRAI'S SPECIAL ADVISOR GANDI MUDZINGWA REFUSED TO RULE IT OUT AS A POSSIBILITY. "ANYTIME YOU SEND 75 PEOPLE TO THROW STONES THROUGH A CAR WINDOW, YOU CANNOT GUARANTEE WHAT THE RESULT WILL BE," MUDZINGWA SAID. "FATALITIES COULD OCCUR." HE POINTED OUT THAT IT IS DIFFICULT TO CONTROL A STONE-THROWING MOB ONCE IT IS UNLEASHED. COMMENT -------------- ¶5. (C) THE OCTOBER 12 INCIDENT IS THE SECOND ATTACK ON A TSVANGIRAI CONVOY IN LESS THAN THREE MONTHS -- THE FIRST OCCURRED SIPDIS JULY 22 IN BINDURA (REFTEL). THE TACTICS USED IN BOTH INCIDENTS WERE VIRTUALLY IDENTICAL, WITH AMBUSHES CARRIED OUT IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS ALONG RURAL STRETCHES OF ROAD, WHILE TSVANGIRAI WAS TRAVELLING TO PUBLICLY ADVERTISED MEETINGS. THE CIRCUMSTANCES SUGGEST SOME DEGREE OF PLANNING BY THE ASSAILANTS. WHILE THIS APPEARED TO BE CONTINUED INTIMIDATION, THE OCTOBER 12 ATTACK CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 03062 01 OF 02 151553Z CLEARLY COULD HAVE KILLED TSVANGIRAI, AN OUTCOME WHICH WOULD HAVE SPARKED SERIOUS UNREST. AT A MINIMUM, BOTH ATTACKS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE PATTERN DURING THE PAST YEAR-AND-A-HALF OF GOVERNMENT- SANCTIONED VIOLENCE AND INTIMIDATION AIMED AT THE MDC LEADERSHIP AND PARTY SUPPORTERS. AFFORDING SOME DEGREE OF DEFENSIVE PROTECTION TO TSVANGIRAI AS HE TRAVELS ABOUT THE COUNTRY IS HIGHLY DESIRABLE. MDC OFFICIALS SUSPENDED -------------- ¶6. (U) MEANWHILE, IN AN UNRELATED DEVELOPMENT, FOUR MDC MEMBERS OF PARLIAMENT WERE ON OCTOBER 13 SUSPENDED FROM THE PARTY'S NATIONAL EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE PENDING AN INVESTIGATION INTO THEIR ROLE IN FACTIONAL DISPUTES SIMMERING FOR ALMOST A MONTH. THE SUSPENDED MPS INCLUDE LEARNMORE JONGWE, PARTY SPOKESMAN; JOB SIKHALA, SECRETARY FOR SECURITY; TAPIWA MASHAKADA, THE SHADOW MINISTER OF FINANCE; AND TAFADZWA MUSEKIWA. WELSHMAN NCUBE TOLD JOURNALISTS THAT THE MDC'S NATIONAL EXECUTIVE HAD DECIDED TO TEMPORARILY SUSPEND THE FOUR, ALONG WITH THE PARTY'S PROVINCIAL CHAIRMAN IN THE TOWN OF CHITUNGWIZA -- ALEX MUSUNDIRE -- UNTIL A SPECIAL COMMISSION OF INQUIRY HAD CONCLUDED ITS WORK. THE BICKERING BETWEEN THE TWO CAMPS IN THIS GROUP, ONE LED BY SIKHALA CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ3587 PAGE 01 HARARE 03062 02 OF 02 151554Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 CIAE-00 INL-00 DODE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 EUR-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 LAB-01 L-00 VCE-00 NSAE-00 OIC-02 PRS-00 P-00 SP-00 STR-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 DSCC-00 PRM-01 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /007W -------------- 2F4393 151554Z /38 P 151523Z OCT 01 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0027 INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY AMEMBASSY NAIROBI C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 003062 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER LONDON FOR GURNEY PARIS FOR NEARY NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER E.O. 12958: DECL. 10/15/11 TAGS: PGOV PHUM ZI SUBJECT: TSVANGIRAI EMERGES UNSCATHED FROM ATTACK ON HIS VEHICLE; MDC SUSPENDS FOUR MPS AND THE OTHER BY MASHAKADA, HAS SPILLED VERY MUCH INTO THE PUBLIC DOMAIN. THEIR SUPPORTERS DISRUPTED THE SEPTEMBER 16 ELECTION OF A CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 03062 02 OF 02 151554Z NEW PARTY EXECUTIVE FOR HARARE PROVINCE, FORCING A POSTPONEMENT OF THE VOTE, AND CLASHED WITH EACH OTHER IN THE HARARE HIGH-DENSITY SUBURB OF ST. MARY'S. IN ADDITION, SIKHALA LEAKED TO THE PRESS A LETTER HE WROTE TO TSVANGIRAI DEMANDING MASHAKADA'S EXPULSION FROM THE PARTY. ¶7. (C) WELSHMAN NCUBE TOLD US ON OCTOBER 15 THAT THE MDC'S NATIONAL EXECUTIVE WAS NOT HAPPY THAT THE FOUR MPS HAD CHOSEN TO AIR THEIR GRIEVANCES IN PUBLIC WITHOUT SEEKING SOME SORT OF RESOLUTION WITHIN THE PARTY. NCUBE CONFIDED HIS SUSPICION THAT THESE INCIDENTS ARE PARTLY THE RESULT OF AN ENERGETIC OPERATION BY THE CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE ORGANIZATION (CIO) TO DESTABILIZE THE OPPOSITION PARTY FROM WITHIN. THE MDC LEADERSHIP, HE CONTINUED, SUSPECTS THAT ONE OF THE FOUR SUSPENDED OFFICIALS IS A KEY OPERATIVE IN THIS CIO CAMPAIGN. GANDI MUDZINGWA TOLD US THAT HE DOUBTED THAT THIS SITUATION WOULD INFLICT LASTING DAMAGE ON THE MDC, SO LONG AS THE PARTY ACTED DECISIVELY AGAINST THOSE INVOLVED. COMMENT -------------- ¶8. (C) NCUBE'S CONCERN ABOUT CIO ATTEMPTS TO DESTROY THE MDC FROM WITHIN IS WELL-FOUNDED, AS THE INTELLIGENCE ORGANIZATION HAS PREVIOUSLY -- AND SUCCESSFULLY -- PURSUED THIS APPROACH WITH OTHER OPPOSITION PARTIES. THE CIO THEORY, HOWEVER, EXPLAINS ONLY PART OF THE CURRENT SITUATION. SIKHALA AND MASHAKADA ARE ALSO YOUNG, AMBITIOUS POLITICIANS ATTEMPTING TO SETTLE PERSONAL SCORES AS THEY JOCKEY AGAINST ONE ANOTHER FOR ADDITIONAL INFLUENCE WITHIN THE PARTY. ¶9. (C) ALTHOUGH THE SIKHALA-MASHAKADA DISPUTE IS FAR FROM A FATAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 03062 02 OF 02 151554Z BLOW TO THE MDC, IT IS AN IMPORTANT TEST OF THE PARTY LEADERSHIP'S CAPACITY TO RESOLVE INTERNAL CONFLICTS. THERE ARE MEMBERS OF THE MDC WHO HAVE NOT APPRECIATED THE FACT THAT A PARTY CAN BE DEMOCRATIC BUT STILL INSIST THAT MEMBERS BE DISCIPLINED AND RESPECT PARTY POLICIES AND PROTOCOL. THE MDC LEADERSHIP HAS, UNTIL NOW, BEEN RELUCTANT TO MOVE AGAINST MEMBERS WHO FLOUTED IMPORTANT PARTY POSITIONS, OUT OF FEAR THAT IT WOULD BE PORTRAYED AS INTOLERANT OR ANTI-DEMOCRATIC. THE COMMISSION OF INQUIRY PROVIDES A GOOD OPPORTUNITY TO REIN IN WAYWARD MEMBERS AND TO SEND A STRONG MESSAGE ABOUT HOW THE PARTY WILL HANDLE SIMILAR PROBLEMS IN THE FUTURE. IN THE MEANTIME, THE GOVERNMENT-CONTROLLED MEDIA HAVE HAD A FIELD DAY PORTRAYING THE MDC AS A PARTY IN CRISIS. SULLIVAN CONFIDENTIAL >