TFUS1 - PD; MEDIA REACTION STRIKE AGAINST

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 003004 SIPDIS AF/PD FOR COX, ROBERTSON, AF/S, AF/P, INR/R/MR, NSC FOR JENDAYI FRAZER E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ZI PREL SUBJECT: TFUS1 - PD; MEDIA REACTION STRIKE AGAINST TERROR; HARARE ¶1. EDITORIALS IN THE OCTOBER 9 EDITIONS OF THE GOVERNMENT-CONTROLLED DAILY "THE HERALD" AND THE INDEPENDENT DAILY "THE DAILY NEWS" FOCUS ON THE UNITED STATES-LED STRIKES IN AFGHANISTAN. FULL EDITORIAL TEXTS FOLLOW: ¶2. UNDER HEADLINE "U. S. GOVERNMENT MUST ACT CORRECTLY," THE "HERALD" COMMENTS: "THE U. S. FACES BOTH OPPORTUNITIES AND DREADFUL RISKS NOW THAT IT HAS STARTED ITS BOMBING CAMPAIGN IN AFGHANISTAN. UNDER INTERNATIONAL LAW ANY STATE IS ENTITLED TO DEFEND ITSELF AND IS ENTITLED TO RETALIATE AGAINST THOSE WHO ATTACK IT AND THOSE WHO ACTIVELY SUPPORT ITS ATTACKERS. THE U. S. WAS BRUTALLY ATTACKED ON SEPTEMBER 11. THE MAIN ATTACKS IN NEW YORK WERE CARRIED OUT AGAINST CIVILIAN TARGETS WITH THE DELIBERATE INTENTION OF KILLING CIVILIANS. SO ASSUMING THAT THE EVIDENCE AGAINST AL-QUAEDS, LED BY OSAMA BIN LADEN, IS AS GOOD AS THE AMERICANS CLAIM, THEN THE ATTACKS ON AL-QUAEDS AND THE TALIBAN RULERS OF AFGHANISTAN ARE JUSTIFIED. THE TALIBAN HAVE SUPPORTED AND PROTECTED AL-QUAEDS. BUT THIS RIGHT OF SELF- DEFENSE IS NOT A BLANK CHECK. THE U. S. WOULD HAVE BEEN BETTER ADVISED TO HAVE MADE PUBLIC THE EVIDENCE IT HAS BEEN PRESENTING TO MANY OF ITS ALLIES, BOTH OLD AND NEW, AS TO THE BLAMEWORTHINESS OF BOT AL-QUAEDS AND THE TALIBAN. THE EVIDENCE IS SAID TO BE IMPRESSIVE. YET MOST PEOPLE AROUND THE WORLD WOULD LIKE TO SEE IT FOR UNCLASSIFIED PAGE 03 HARARE 03004 01 OF 02 091445Z THEMSELVES AND MAKE UP THEIR OWN MINDS. IT IS UNFORTUNATE THAT THEY HAVE NOT BEEN ALLOWED TO DO SO. CARPET BOMBING OF AFGHANISTAN, FOR EXAMPLE, WOULD PUT THE U. S. IN THE SAME CAMP AS THOSE WHO FLEW THE PLANES INTO THE WORLD TRADE CENTER. KILLING CIVILIANS FOR IGNOBLE MOTIVES OF REVENGE IS TERRORISM. THE INITIAL ATTACKS APPEAR TO HAVE BEEN AGAINST LEGITIMATE TARGETS AND IT ALSO APPEARS, FROM THE CASUALTY TOLL, THAT THE BOMBING EXHIBITED A HIGH DEGREE OF PRECISION. IT IS ESSENTIAL THAT FUTURE ATTACKS FOLLOW THE SAME COURSE. IT IS ALSO ESSENTIAL THAT THE U. S. RESTRICTS ITS WAR AIMS. THE U. S. MUST RESISTS THE TEMPTATION TO TRY AND IMPOSE SOME SORT OF GOVERNMENT ON AFGHANISTAN. THAT MUST BE LEFT TO THE AFGHAN PEOPLE WITH THE ADVICE AND HELP OF NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES. IT IS HIGHLY LIKELY THAT ANY FUTURE GOVERNMENT OF AFGHANISTAN WILL BE BOTH NATIONALISTIC AND ISLAMIC. AFTER ALL ALMOST ALL AFGHANS ARE MUSLIMS AND, AS FOREIGN INVADERS HAVE DISCOVERED, ARE INTENSELY NATIONALISTIC. IT IS INDEED HIGHLY LIKELY THAT ANY FUTURE AFGHAN GOVERNMENT WILL BE ALLIED TO BOTH IRAN AND PAKISTAN, ITS MOST IMPORTANT NEIGHBORS, AND WILL BE CLOSER TO RUSSIA AND CHINA AMONG THE GREAT POWERS THAN TO THE U. S. SUCH A GOVERNMENT IS UNLIKELY TO REGARD THE U. S. AS ITS BEST FRIEND AND IT WOULD BE UNREASONABLE OF THE AMERICANS TO EXPECT THIS. ALL THAT THE U. S. CAN EXPECT, AND IS ENTITLED TO EXPECT, IS A GOVERNMENT THAT ACCEPTS INTERNATIONAL LAW. THE U. S. IS REGARDED, JUSTIFIABLY, WITH GREAT SUSPICION IN MUCH OF THE ISLAMIC WORLD. ANY MEDDLING IN AFGHAN POLITICS WOULD DOOM A RESULTANT GOVERNMENT. THE ISLAMIC SUSPICION OF THE U. S. HAS THREE STRANDS. UNCLASSIFIED PAGE 04 HARARE 03004 01 OF 02 091445Z FIRST, AND MOST IMPORTANT, IS THE U. S. BACKING IN ALMOST ALL CIRCUMSTANCES OF ISRAEL. THERE HAVE BEEN INDICATIONS IN THE LAST WEEK THAT THE U. S. DOES BELIEVE THAT THE PALESTINIANS TOO HAVE RIGHTS, BUT MANY WILL WANT TO SEE ACTION BEFORE THEY BELIEVE THIS. SECONDLY, THERE IS THE GENERAL THIRD WORLD IRRITATION WITH THE U. S.'S ASSUMPTION OF GLOBAL DOMINANCE. THE ¶U. S. NEEDS TO BE LESS DOMINEERING. AND THIRDLY THERE IS A DISTASTE OF THE SECULAR CONSUMER CULTURE OF THE U. S., A GAP THAT IS NOT GOING TO BE BRIDGED BUT WHICH NEEDS TO BE UNDERSTOOD. SO THE U. S. HAS THE OPPORTUNITY OF CRIPPLING AL-QUAEDS IN THE WAR ON TERRORISM AND GIVING THE AFGHAN PEOPLE A CHANCE TO HAVE A GOVERNMENT THEY DESERVE. IT RUNS THE RISK OF BEING SEEN AS A BIG ANTI-ISLAMIC BULLY. THE CHOICE IS UP TO THE U. S. GOVERNMENT AND IT MUST ACT AS CORRECTLY AS IT HAS STARTED." ¶3. UNDER HEADLINE "AMERICA HAS ACTED RASHLY," THE "DAILY NEWS" COMMENTS: "SUNDAY'S U. S. STRIKES AGAINST AFGHANISTAN MAY HAVE ANSWERED AMERICAN DOMESTIC PRESSURE FOR THE ADMINISTRATION OF PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH TO RESPOND UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED PTQ5681 PAGE 01 HARARE 03004 02 OF 02 091445Z ACTION INR-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AF-00 AID-00 AMAD-00 A-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 INL-00 DODE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EUR-00 UTED-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 LAB-01 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 DCP-01 NSAE-00 OMB-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 IRM-00 SS-00 TEST-00 TRSE-00 T-00 USIE-00 IIP-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /007W -------------- 2BFF22 091445Z /38 P 091418Z OCT 01 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9961 INFO NSC WASHDC AMEMBASSY PRETORIA AMEMBASSY LUSAKA AMEMBASSY WINDHOEK AMEMBASSY GABORONE AMEMBASSY LILONGWE AMEMBASSY LONDON UNCLAS SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 003004 SIPDIS AF/PD FOR COX, ROBERTSON, AF/S, AF/P, INR/R/MR, NSC FOR JENDAYI FRAZER E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ZI PREL SUBJECT: TFUS1 - PD; MEDIA REACTION STRIKE AGAINST UNCLASSIFIED PAGE 02 HARARE 03004 02 OF 02 091445Z TERROR; HARARE TO THE 11 SEPTEMBER 2001 TERRORIST ATTACKS IN NEW YORK AND WASHINGTON, BUT THE REAL DANGER IS THAT THE U.S. COULD BE SUCKED INTO A LONG-DRAWN CONFLICT. BUSH HAS IGNORED WORLD OPINION NOT TO ACT HASTILY. IT WAS ESSENTIAL TO FURNISH THE REST OF THE WORLD WITH SPECIFIC EVIDENCE LINKING THE CHIEF SUSPECT IN LAST MONTH'S ATTACK ON THE U. S., OSAMA BIN LADEN, TO THE DASTARDLY ACTS. THAT EVIDENCE REMAINS PRIVY TO THE AMERICAN ADMINISTRATION AND THEIR BRITISH ALLIES. IT WOULD HAVE BEEN FAR MORE PREFERABLE TO LET THE WHOLE OF THE WORLD KNOW OF THIS EVIDENCE FOR THEM TO MAKE AN INFORMED DECISION, WHETHER OR NOT IT WAS GOING TO BE IN CONCERT WITH THAT OF THE AMERICANS. BUT SUCH AN ARGUMENT HAS ALREADY BEEN OVERTAKEN BY EVENTS. AMERICA IS ENTITLED TO PURSUE ITS INTERESTS AND SECURITY, BUT IN SO DOING IT IS ERODING THE ENORMOUS SYMPATHY AND SUPPORT IT GARNERED SINCE THE ATTACKS ALMOST A MONTH AGO. AMERICAN INTELLIGENCE IS SUPPOSED TO BE SO SOPHISTICATED THAT THEY SHOULD NOT BE STRIKING TARGETS OTHER THAN EXACT LOCATIONS OF BIN LADEN, IF IT IS ACCEPTED THAT HE BE CONVICTED BEFORE A TRIAL. BUT THAT THEY SHOULD BE DROPPING BOMBS ALL OVER AFGHANISTAN RAISES FAR MORE SERIOUS CONCERNS: THE CASUALTIES ARE GOING TO BE MORE THAN THE ALLEGED PERPETRATORS OF THE 11 SEPTEMBER ATTACKS. AFGHANISTAN IS A NATION OF DISPLACED PEOPLE. SUNDAY'S BOMBINGS WILL HAVE HASTENED THE WAVE OF AFGHANS FLEEING THEIR COUNTRY. WHILE THEY SEEK REFUGE IN NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION OF THE REGION. THERE UNCLASSIFIED PAGE 03 HARARE 03004 02 OF 02 091445Z COULD BE MORE CASUALTIES AMONG LEADERS IN THAT REGION AS RESENTMENT AGAINST DISPLACEMENT AND AMERICA BUILDS UP. IT IS IMPORTANT TO UNDERSTAND THE PSYCHE THAT DRIVES PEOPLE WHO ARE PREPARED TO SACRIFICE THEIR LIVES FOR A CAUSE. AMONG THOSE FLEEING AFGHANISTAN INTO NEIGHBORING STATES ARE PEOPLE COMMITTED TO A CAUSE, ONE OF THEM BEING TO FIGHT AMERICA. THEY WILL BE DIFFICULT TO DETECT BECAUSE THEY ARE NOT AN ARMY, BUT THE EFFECTS OF THEIR ACTIONS ARE DEADLY. THE FORMER SOVIET UNION KNOWS THE LESSON TOO WELL. IT MET ITS WATERLOO AGAINST THE TALIBAN. MANY OF THOSE BACKING THE AMERICAN STRIKES AGAINST AFGHANISTAN DO SO BECAUSE THEY BELIEVE THE OUTCOME WILL CONVENIENTLY SOLVE THEIR OWN LONG- STANDING PROBLEMS, WHOSE ORIGINS ARE SEEN AS EMANATING FROM AFGHANISTAN OR THAT REGION OF THE WORLD. BY BOMBING AFGHANISTAN, THE U. S. AND ITS ALLIES ARE MERELY VICTIMIZING THE ORDINARY AFGHANS WHO HAVE NO CAPACITY TO ESCAPE OR HIDE FROM THE ATTACKS. THE QUESTION THEY WILL ASK IS: WHAT DO WE HAVE TO DO WITH BIN LADEN'S AGENDA? INSTEAD OF SYMPATHY MORE HATRED IS ENGENDERED. THE AMERICANS SHOULD HAVE LEARNT FROM THE NORTH ATLANTIC ORGANIZATION'S EXPERIENCE IN YUGOSLAVIA. THE AMERICANS SHOULD HAVE USED THEIR SOPHISTICATED INTELLIGENCE TO TRACK DOWN BIN LADEN AND BRING HIM TO JUSTICE WITHOUT RISKING UNNECESSARY CIVILIAN CASUALTIES. IT IS POSSIBLE THE CHIEF SUSPECT IS NOWHERE NEAR THE PLACES BEING BOMBED AS HE WOULD HAVE LONG ANTICIPATED THIS ACTION. THE LIVES AND SECURITY OF NATIONALS BELONGING TO THE U. S. AND ITS ALLIES THROUGHOUT THE WORLD ARE NOW IN SERIOUS JEOPARDY. NO ONE WILL EVER KNOW WHERE AND WHEN THE NEXT ATTACK WILL UNCLASSIFIED PAGE 04 HARARE 03004 02 OF 02 091445Z BE. THE 11 SEPTEMBER ATTACKS DEMONSTRATE THE DILEMMA THE WORLD FACES IN ANTICIPATING THE ACTION OF THE TERRORIST ENEMY. BUT THIS MAY BE AN ENEMY FOR WHICH THERE IS NO DEARTH OF RECRUITS. SO EVEN THE EVENTUAL CAPTURE OF BIN LADEN WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT GUARANTEES AGAINST FURTHER ACTS OF TERRORISM. IF BIN LADEN IS THE MAN BUSH SAYS HE IS, THEN THE U. S. AND ITS ALLIES MAY HAVE FALLEN FOR THE CHIEF SUSPECT'S PLAN." SULLIVAN UNCLASSIFIED >