MFA DECLINES TO SAY "YES" OR "NO" ON ELECTION OBSERVERS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 002939 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER LONDON FOR GURNEY PARIS FOR NEARY NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER E.O. 12958: DECL. 10/03/11 TAGS: PREL PGOV ZI SUBJECT: MFA DECLINES TO SAY "YES" OR "NO" ON ELECTION OBSERVERS BUT IMPLIES "NO" CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF MATT HARRINGTON. REASONS: 1.5 (B) AND (D). REF: A) STATE 169690 B) HARARE 2743 C) HARARE 2690 ¶1. (C) IN AN OCTOBER 2 MEETING WITH MFA EUROPE AND AMERICAS DIVISION DIRECTOR JONATHAN WUTAWUNASHE, CHARGE, ACCOMPANIED BY POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF, REITERATED PREVIOUS EXPRESSIONS OF CONCERN OVER THE GOZ'S TREATMENT OF THE TEAM FROM THE INTERNATIONAL FOUNDATION FOR ELECTION SYSTEMS (IFES). (N.B. THE MEETING WAS A FOLLOW-UP TO A/S KANSTEINER'S SEPTEMBER 27 DISCUSSION IN WASHINGTON WITH AMBASSADOR MUBAKO -- REF A). THE CHARGE STRESSED THE USG' S DISAPPOINTMENT THAT THE IFES TEAM HAD BEEN ASKED TO LEAVE AFTER IT HAD REQUESTED APPOINTMENTS WITH GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS RESPONSIBLE FOR OVERSEEING ELECTIONS. IFES IS AN INTERNATIONALLY-RESPECTED ORGANIZATION THAT HAS OBSERVED ELECTIONS WORLD-WIDE, AND THE USG STRONGLY ENDORSES ITS PROPOSED ACTIVITIES IN ZIMBABWE. THE CHARGE POINTED OUT THAT ASSESSMENTS OF THE ELECTORAL PROCESS FROM ORGANIZATIONS SUCH AS IFES WOULD BE CRUCIAL TO INTERNATIONAL AND DOMESTIC PERCEPTIONS OF THE LEGITIMACY OF THE 2002 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION. HE SAID HE UNDERSTOOD THAT IFES INTENDS TO SEND ANOTHER TEAM TO ZIMBABWE IN MID-OCTOBER, AND WE REQUESTED A SIMPLE "YES" OR "NO" AS TO WHETHER THEY WOULD BE WELCOME. THE CHARGE STATED THAT WE WOULD INTERPRET A LACK OF RESPONSE AS A "NO." ¶2. (C) WUTAWUNASHE REPLIED THAT THE GOZ WAS "AT A GREAT DISADVANTAGE" LAST TIME BECAUSE IT DID NOT KNOW THE IFES TEAM WAS COMING. HE SAID IT WOULD BE "PRUDENT" FOR ANYONE CONTEMPLATING A VISIT TO A "SOVEREIGN COUNTRY" TO FAMILIARIZE HIMSELF WITH THE NECESSARY PROCEDURES TO FOLLOW. THIS WAS NOT A VISIT THAT OUR TWO GOVERNMENTS HAD DISCUSSED IN ADVANCE. THE CHARGE ACKNOWLEDGED THE POINT BUT NOTED THAT IFES IS AN NGO, IS NOT AFFILIATED WITH THE CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 02939 01 OF 02 031447Z UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT, AND DID NOT REQUEST THE EMBASSY'S ASSISTANCE PRIOR TO ITS TEAM'S VISIT IN EARLY SEPTEMBER. WUTAWUNASHE SAID HE WAS NOT FAMILIAR WITH WHAT THE TEAM MEMBERS HAD PUT ON THEIR VISA APPLICATIONS. PERHAPS THEY WERE NOT HONEST ABOUT THEIR INTENDED WORK IN ZIMBABWE, AND IT MIGHT HAVE LOOKED TO IMMIGRATION OFFICIALS LIKE A "SURREPTITIOUS ENTRY." IMMIGRATION OFFICIALS ARE THE SAME THE WORLD OVER, WUTAWUNASHE ADDED. ¶3. (C) THE USG, THE CHARGE AFFIRMED, IS MORE INTERESTED IN DETERMINING NEXT STEPS THAN IN REHASHING PAST DIFFICULTIES. HE REMINDED WUTAWUNASHE THAT SPEAKER OF PARLIAMENT MNANGAGWA HAD ASSURED US THAT INTERNATIONAL OBSERVERS WOULD BE WELCOMED BECAUSE THAT WAS A TRADITION IN ZIMBABWE. THE USG IS NOW REQUESTING A SIMPLE "YES" OR "NO" ON WHETHER THEY WOULD BE ALLOWED TO WORK UNHINDERED. IN RESPONSE, WUTAWUNASHE STATED THAT HE WANTED THE CHARGE TO UNDERSTAND THE PSYCHOLOGY PREVAILING IN OFFICIAL CIRCLES IN HARARE. THERE IS A STRONG PERCEPTION AMONG MANY IN THE ZIMBABWEAN GOVERNMENT THAT THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY WANTS TO REMOVE PRESIDENT MUGABE. THAT PERCEPTION, HE CONTINUED, HAD BEEN STRENGTHENED BY RECENT CONFERENCES HELD IN WASHINGTON AND LONDON, AT LEAST ONE ATTENDED BY FORMER A/S CHESTER CROCKER, WHERE SCENARIOS WERE DISCUSSED ABOUT HOW MUGABE MIGHT BE CONVINCED OR FORCED TO STEP DOWN. WHY ARE AFRICAN COUNTRIES NOT BEATING DOWN THE DOOR TO OBSERVE THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, HE ASKED, WHILE OTHER NATIONS ARE ANXIOUS TO SEND PEOPLE AS SOON AS POSSIBLE? "WE DON'T EVEN HAVE A DATE SET FOR THE ELECTION YET," WUTAWUNASHE SAID. ¶4. (C) THE EUROPE AND AMERICAS DIVISION DIRECTOR SAID HE HESITATED TO PROVIDE A DEFINITIVE "YES" OR "NO" WITHOUT KNOWING MORE ABOUT IFES. NGOS, HE DECLARED, ARE A DIME A DOZEN AND ARE NOT CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 02939 01 OF 02 031447Z CONSTRAINED BY DIPLOMATIC CONVENTIONS OR THE NEED TO MAINTAIN BILATERAL RELATIONSHIPS. FOR THAT REASON, HE PERSONALLY PREFERRED OFFICIAL OBSERVERS SENT BY GOVERNMENTS. THE CHARGE REITERATED THAT IFES HAS AN OUTSTANDING INTERNATIONAL REPUTATION FOR CREDIBILITY, NON-PARTISANSHIP, AND ELECTION-RELATED EXPERTISE. HE CLARIFIED THAT IFES INITIALLY INTENDS TO CONDUCT AN ASSESSMENT OF THE ELECTORAL ENVIRONMENT AND WILL THEN DETERMINE WHETHER IT WANTS TO BECOME INVOLVED IN AN OBSERVATION EFFORT. ¶5. (C) WUTAWUNASHE AFFIRMED THAT THE GOZ WAS OPERATING "UNDER THE SPIRIT OF THE ABUJA AGREEMENT," ACCORDING TO WHICH THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY WOULD RESPOND TO GOZ REQUESTS FOR ASSISTANCE WITH ITS ELECTORAL PROCESS. THE GOZ TOOK THE ABUJA AGREEMENT SERIOUSLY, WUTAWUNASHE INSISTED, AND WOULD ISSUE INVITATIONS "AT THE RIGHT TIME." IN THE MEANTIME, HE SUGGESTED THAT GROUPS INTERESTED IN OBSERVING MAKE THE GOZ AWARE OF THAT INTEREST. SHOULD IFES APPROACH THE ZIMBABWEAN EMBASSY IN WASHINGTON TO VERIFY ITS BONA FIDES, THE CHARGE ASKED? YES, WUTAWUNASHE RESPONDED, THEY SHOULD PROBABLY INTRODUCE THEMSELVES TO THE EMBASSY AND EXPRESS THEIR INTEREST IN OBSERVING THE ELECTION "WHEN THAT TIME COMES." COMMENT CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ0006 PAGE 01 HARARE 02939 02 OF 02 031447Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 CIAE-00 DODE-00 SRPP-00 EUR-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 L-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 OMB-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 SSO-00 SS-00 TRSE-00 T-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DRL-02 G-00 SAS-00 /005W -------------- 2926AA 031447Z /45 O 031324Z OCT 01 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9874 INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY AMEMBASSY NAIROBI C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 002939 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER LONDON FOR GURNEY PARIS FOR NEARY NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER E.O. 12958: DECL. 10/03/11 TAGS: PREL PGOV ZI SUBJECT: MFA DECLINES TO SAY "YES" OR "NO" ON ELECTION OBSERVERS BUT IMPLIES "NO" -------------- CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 02939 02 OF 02 031447Z ¶6. (C) WUTAWUNASHE'S REMARKS SUGGEST THAT THE GOVERNMENT OF ZIMBABWE IS VERY UNLIKELY TO PROVIDE, ANY TIME SOON, A CLEAR-CUT "YES" OR "NO" ON THE ISSUE OF INTERNATIONAL ELECTION OBSERVERS. HE IS RIGHT ABOUT THE PARANOIA REIGNING IN ZANU-PF'S INNER CIRCLE, WHERE MANY SENIOR OFFICIALS ARE GENUINELY CONVINCED THAT SOME WESTERN GOVERNMENTS (INCLUDING THE U.S.) ARE USING NGOS AS A FRONT TO WORK FULL-OUT FOR THE DEFEAT OF MUGABE AND THE RULING PARTY. AS A RESULT, THE GOZ HAS CLEARLY GONE INTO STALL MODE, AND WILL USE THE ABUJA AGREEMENT TO CLOAK ITS RELUCTANCE TO ADMIT INTERNATIONAL OBSERVERS. WE SHOULD ASSUME THAT IF INVITATIONS ARE ISSUED TO IFES AND SIMILAR GROUPS, IT WILL BE DONE ONLY AT THE VERY LAST MINUTE, IN THE FIVE- TO EIGHT-WEEK PERIOD IN WHICH BY REGULATION THE GOZ MUST ANNOUNCE ELECTIONS, AND TOO LATE FOR OBSERVERS TO ASSESS FIRST-HAND THE DAMAGE DONE BY ZANU-PF'S PRE- ELECTION ANTICS. WUTAWUNASHE FAITHFULLY CONVEYED THE GOZ AND RULING PARTY THINKING THAT THE WEST AND NGOS ARE NOT OBJECTIVE OBSERVERS OF ZIMBABWE'S POLITICAL SCENE, ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT CLEAR THAT HE PERSONALLY SHARES THIS VIEW. WHITEHEAD CONFIDENTIAL >