UNDP RESREP ON ABUJA AGREEMENT, UN ENGAGEMENT

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 002871 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: EAID PREL PGOV ZI SUBJECT: UNDP RESREP ON ABUJA AGREEMENT, UN ENGAGEMENT WITH GOZ -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (U) VICTOR ANGELO, THE UNDP RESIDENT REPRESENTATIVE HOSTED A SEPTEMBER 26 BRIEFING FOR AMBASSADORS OF WESTERN DIPLOMATS TO UPDATE ON THE PROGRESS CONCERNING THE ABUJA ACCORDS (AA). HE HAD HOSTED EARLIER IN THE DAY A MEETING WITH THE G-77 TO DISCUSS THE SAME TOPIC. HE DESCRIBED SIX CONCERNS AND THE STEPS THAT UN HAD TAKEN IN NEGOTIATING WITH THE GOZ. IN A FOLLOWING QUESTION AND ANSWER SESSION, ANGELO SAID THAT HE EXPECTS THE GOZ TO WELCOME INTERNATIONAL ELECTION OBSERVERS ONLY IN A BRIEF WINDOW PRECEDING THE ELECTIONS. BOTH THE UN AND THE DIPLOMATS PRESENT EXPRESSED CONCERN OVER THE LACK OF PROGRESS IN IMPLEMENTING THE ABUJA ACCORDS. IF FIGURES BACKING SOME OF ANGELO'S CONCERNS ARE CORRECT, ZIMBABWE'S FOREX SITUATION AND ECONOMIC CRISIS COULD DEEPEN DRAMATICALLY IN 2002. -------------- SPEED-UP ABUJA ACCORDS IMPLEMENTATION -------------- ¶2. (U) THE UNDP'S FIRST CONCERN IS SPEEDING UP IMPLEMENTATION OF THE AA. ANGELO EXPLAINED THAT HE HAD MET WITH THE GOZ AT MANY LEVELS, INCLUDING MEMBERS OF THE POLITBURO, THE MINISTER OF JUSTICE, THE SPEAKER OF PARLIAMENT, TO URGE PROGRESS ON SEVERAL CONFIDENCE BUILDING MEASURES (CBMS). THESE INCLUDE NO FURTHER OCCUPATIONS (THERE HAVE BEEN SOME 50 REPORTED NEW OCCUPATIONS SINCE THE AA); A DEMONSTRATED RESPECT FOR THE RULE OF LAW (ROL) BY MOVING ILLEGAL OCCUPIERS TO FARMS LEGALLY DESIGNATED FOR ACQUISITION OR THOSE FARMS ON OFFER; APPROVAL FOR DEPLOYMENT OF A UNDP ASSESSMENT TEAM WHOSE TERMS OF REFERENCE WOULD BE TO DETERMINE WHAT IS OCCURRING ON THE GROUND; AND CLARIFICATION OF IMMEDIATE STEPS THE GOZ WILL TAKE AS PART OF THE PROCESS. UNDP ALSO WANTS TO KNOW WHAT ROLE THEY WILL BE EXPECTED TO PLAY. ANGELO GAVE AN EXAMPLE UNCLASSIFIED PAGE 03 HARARE 02871 01 OF 03 280802Z OF THE DILEMMA THAT THE GOZ FACES: IF THE GOZ NUMBER OF 7,889 FAMILIES OF ILLEGAL OCCUPIERS IS USED, THERE ARE A TREMENDOUS NUMBER OF PEOPLE TO BE MOVED. HOWEVER, TO DATE ONLY FIVE FARMS HAVE GONE THROUGH THE ADMINISTRATIVE COURTS AND ACTUALLY BEEN LEGALLY ACQUIRED. ¶3. (U) ANGELO SAID THAT THE SYG DETERMINED THAT THE UN HAS WAITED LONG ENOUGH FOR A RESPONSE FROM THE GOZ, AND AS A RESULT MARK MALLOCH-BROWN SENT A LETTER TO FOREIGN MINISTER MUDENGE (DELIVERED IN NEW YORK ON SEPTEMBER 21 AND SEPTEMBER 23 IN ZIMBABWE--COPY NOT SHARED) THAT REPORTEDLY ADDRESSED (1) HOW THE UN SEES ITS ROLE, (APPARENTLY ALONG THE LINES OF THE DECEMBER 2000 MALLOCH- BROWN LETTER); (2) PROPOSED POTENTIAL NEXT STEPS; (3) THE FOREIGN MINISTER'S BRIEFING OF THE DIPLOMATIC CORPS ON SEPTEMBER 20 AND APPRECIATION FOR THE PUBLIC GOZ ENDORSEMENT OF THE AA; (4) THE GOZ'S DECEMBER 2000 PROPOSALS; (5) THE UN'S READINESS TO WORK WITH THE GOZ ON IMPLEMENTATION OF THE AA; (6) UNDP'S NEED FOR PERMISSION TO SEND IN AN ASSESSMENT TEAM HEADED BY A DEPUTY UNDER SECRETARY ON SEPTEMBER 25 TO IDENTIFY CAPACITY SIPDIS CONSTRAINTS IN IMPLEMENTING THE AA, TO IDENTIFY HUMANITARIAN NEEDS, AND TO OUTLINE WHAT COULD BE AN ACCEPTABLE LAND REFORM PROGRAM; AND (7) A REPLY FROM THE FOREIGN MINISTER BEFORE HE COMMENCED HIS EXTENDED TRAVEL TO SOUTH EAST ASIA AND THEN BRISBANE. THE FOREIGN MINISTER DEPARTED SEPTEMBER 26 WITHOUT REPLYING, ALTHOUGH THE RESREP WAS TOLD THE PRESIDENCY HAD APPROVED THE LETTER AND UN EXPECTS A RESPONSE. ¶4. (U) THE RESREP ALSO REPORTED THAT VICE PRESIDENT UNCLASSIFIED PAGE 04 HARARE 02871 01 OF 03 280802Z MSIKA, CHAIRMAN OF THE GOZ LAND COMMITTEE, HELD A MEETING ON 9/19 WITH GOVERNORS, PROVINCIAL ADMINISTRATORS, THE ZRP, AND REPRESENTATIVES OF THE WAR VETERANS. THE POLICIES ANNOUNCED INCLUDED (1) AN IMMEDIATE RETURN TO THE ROL; (2) SUSPENSION OF THE A-2 RESETTLEMENT SCHEMES FOR SMALL SCALE COMMERCIAL FARMERS THAT HAD BEEN DUE TO BE LAUNCHED BY THE MINISTER OF AG; (3) REMOVAL OF ILLEGAL SETTLERS BY THE ZRP; AND (5) EMPHASIS THAT NO CRIMINAL OR ILLEGAL ACTS WOULD BE TOLERATED. IMPLEMENTATION WAS DUE TO BEGIN ON 9/25, BUT NOTHING CONCRETE HAS OCCURRED ON THE GROUND. -------------- DOMESTIC DIALOG -------------- ¶5. (U) THE RESREP NEXT DISCUSSED THE ISSUE OF A DOMESTIC DIALOG AS RECOMMENDED BY THE SADC HEADS OF STATE. HE INDICATED THAT HE WAS INITIALLY ENCOURAGED BY THE CFU AND AGS AGREEMENT TO SUSPEND THE SUPREME COURT HEARING ON THE LEGALITY OF THE LAND REFORM PROGRAM PENDING DIALOG. HOWEVER, A SEPTEMBER 24 MEETING BETWEEN THE CFU AND THE UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED PTO0178 PAGE 01 HARARE 02871 02 OF 03 280802Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 USNW-00 DODE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 UTED-00 VC-00 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 LAB-01 L-00 VCE-00 DCP-01 NSAE-00 IRM-00 TEST-00 DSCC-00 PRM-01 DRL-02 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /005W -------------- 2693BF 280803Z /38 O 280738Z SEP 01 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9847 NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE INFO SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY UNCLAS SECTION 02 OF 03 HARARE 002871 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: EAID PREL PGOV ZI SUBJECT: UNDP RESREP ON ABUJA AGREEMENT, UN ENGAGEMENT WITH GOZ GOZ WAS NOT FRUITFUL, AND THE PARTIES WENT BACK TO THE COURTS ON SEPTEMBER 26. A RULING IS EXPECTED SHORTLY, ALTHOUGH EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT THE FINAL JUDGMENT WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL AFTER THE BRISBANE CHOGM MEETINGS. ¶6. (U) LATER IN QUESTIONING, THE U.S. ASKED IF ANY PROGRESS HAD BEEN MADE CONCERNING THE SADC LEADERS' RECOMMENDATION THAT THE PARLIAMENT OF ZIMBABWE FORM A BIPARTISAN COMMITTEE TO EXAMINE THE ISSUE OF LAND REFORM. UNCLASSIFIED PAGE 02 HARARE 02871 02 OF 03 280802Z THE RESREP ADVISED THAT HE HAD MET WITH SPEAKER OF PARLIAMENT MNANGAGWA WHO INFORMED HIM THAT A BIPARTISAN PARLIAMENTARY LAND AND AGRICULTURE PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ALREADY EXISTS. THE RESREP TOLD THE SPEAKER THAT BOTH UNDP AND USAID, THE PRINCIPAL DONORS WHO ASSIST PARLIAMENT, STAND READY TO HELP STRENGTHEN THIS COMMITTEE AS NEEDED. -------------- CREDIBLE REPORTING/MONITORING -------------- ¶7. (U) AN FAO/WFP TEAM IS CURRENTLY IN-COUNTRY ASSESSING CAPACITY BUILDING NEEDS OF THE MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE TO ESTABLISH A CREDIBLE, INDEPENDENT MONITORING SYSTEMS. LATER IN QUESTIONING, THE EU SOUGHT CLARIFICATION OF THE FAO TEAM'S TERMS OF REFERENCE AND WHETHER IT WAS CAPACITY BUILDING WITH THE FOCUS OF LAND REFORM IMPLEMENTATION. ANGELO SAID THE TEAM WAS ASSESSING WHAT STEPS WERE NEEDED TO ESTABLISH A MONITORING SYSTEM FOR THE CBMS, AND IMPLEMENTATION OF THE AA. -------------- THE UP-COMING AGRICULTURE SEASON -------------- ¶8. (U) THE FOURTH UNDP CONCERN CENTERS ON THE UP-COMING AGRICULTURAL SEASON AND THE ABILITY OF COMMERCIAL AND RESETTLED FARMERS TO UNDERTAKE LAND PREPARATION AND PLANTING IN ADVANCE OF THE RAINS IN LATE OCTOBER/NOVEMBER. THE RESREP EXUDED PESSIMISIAM ON THIS UNCLASSIFIED PAGE 03 HARARE 02871 02 OF 03 280802Z ISSUE. HE SAID THAT EVEN IF THE GOZ FIGURE OF 120,000 RESETTLED FARMERS IS ACCEPTED, AND ONE ASSUMES A MINIMUM OF ONE HECTARE PER FAMILY, ONLY 5,249 HECTARES HAVE BEEN PLOWED IN RESETTLEMENT AREAS AS OF LATE SEPTEMBER. IN TERMS OF THE Z$6.0 BILLION BUDGET APPROVED FOR RESETTLEMENT SUPPORT, ONLY $200 MILLION HAS BEEN DISBURSED. UN TECHNICAL EXPERTS ESTIMATE ON THE BASIS OF CURRENT LAND PREPARATION THAT THE 180,000 MT OF TOBACCO HARVESTED THIS SEASON WILL SHRINK TO LESS THAN 100,000 MT NEXT YEAR. ¶9. (U) COMMENT: ACCORDING TO THE TOBACCO INDUSTRY, INTERNATIONAL BUYERS REQUIRE A MINIMUM OF 150,000 MT FROM ZIMBABWE. IF THIS AMOUNT IS NOT FORTHCOMING, BUYERS WILL SEEK OTHER MARKETS. GIVEN THAT THEY MUST ALSO UNDERTAKE REMIXING/FORMULATION OF BLENDS, IT WILL BE YEARS BEFORE WORLD BUYERS RETURN TO ZIMBABWE EVEN IF THE TOBACCO INDUSTRY REBOUNDS. WE ARE TOLD THAT AFTER THE SANCTIONS IN THE 1970S, IT TOOK TEN YEARS TO ATTRACT THE BUYERS TO THE ZIMBABWE MARKET. END COMMENT. -------------- HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE -------------- ¶10. (U) THE UN RELIEF AND REHABILITATION SECRETARIAT IS FUNCTIONING. THREE WFP STAFF ARE ASSIGNED AND AN INTERIM COORDINATOR HIRED PENDING FINAL SELECTION OF A HA EXPERT AS THE COORDINATOR. ANGELO REPORTED THAT BY NEXT WEEK A MATRIX OF NGO PROGRAMS BY REGION AND TYPE WOULD BE AVAILABLE. UNCLASSIFIED PAGE 04 HARARE 02871 02 OF 03 280802Z -------------- THE UN IS ON CALL, BUT WHO IS CALLING? -------------- ¶11. (U) ANGELO SUMMARIZED BY SAYING THE UN SYSTEM IS ON CALL TO ASSIST THE GOZ IN IMPLEMENTING THE AA. KEY TO THIS WILL BE THE GOZ RESPONSE TO THE MALLOCH-BROWN LETTER. WHILE ANGELO EXPRESSED HOPE, HE ALSO RECALLED THE DECEMBER 2000 MALLOCH-BROWN LETTER, WHICH THE GOZ TOOK THREE MONTHS TO ANSWER. ¶12. (U) SYG ANAN WROTE TO PRESIDENT MBEKI JUST PRIOR TO THE SEPTEMBER 10 SADC MEETING IN HARARE SAYING THAT THE UN HAD NOT RECEIVED A GOZ REQUEST FOR AN INDEPENDENT ASSESSMENT OF WHAT WAS OCCURRING ON THE GROUND. HE NOTED THAT THE UN IS WILLING TO RESPOND, BUT STRESSED THE IMPORTANCE OF AN ASSESSMENT IN ESTABLISHING THE FACTS CONCERNING THE STATUS OF THE "FAST TRACK" PROGRAM. ¶13. (U) THE UK ASKED ABOUT THE TERMS OF REFERENCE FOR THE ASSESSMENT. THE RESREP RESPONDED THAT THERE WERE UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED PTO0179 PAGE 01 HARARE 02871 03 OF 03 280803Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 USNW-00 DODE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 UTED-00 VC-00 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 LAB-01 L-00 VCE-00 DCP-01 NSAE-00 IRM-00 TEST-00 DSCC-00 PRM-01 DRL-02 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /005W -------------- 2693D2 280803Z /38 O 280738Z SEP 01 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9848 NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE INFO SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY UNCLAS SECTION 03 OF 03 HARARE 002871 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: EAID PREL PGOV ZI SUBJECT: UNDP RESREP ON ABUJA AGREEMENT, UN ENGAGEMENT WITH GOZ ISSUES WITH THE TOR AND THAT SOME "REPACKAGING" MIGHT BE NEEDED. HE OFFERED AN EXAMPLE, SAYING THE GOZ HAD OBJECTED TO THE TASK OF "ASSESSING LEGITIMACY OF CURRENT SETTLERS" WHICH, OF COURSE, IS CRITICAL TO ASSESSING WHETHER THE GOZ IS FOLLOWING THEIR OWN BENEFICIARY SELECTION CRITERIA. -------------- OTHER COMMENTS/QUESTIONS UNCLASSIFIED PAGE 02 HARARE 02871 03 OF 03 280803Z -------------- -- SWEDEN ASKED ABOUT PROGRESS ON OTHER ASPECTS OF THE AA, SPECIFICALLY ELECTION OBSERVATION/MONITORING. THE RESREP SAID SARDONICALLY THAT HE EXPECTED THE GOZ TO WELCOME INTERNATIONAL OBSERVERS 15 DAYS BEFORE THE ELECTIONS, REMINDING THE GROUP THAT THE ABUJA AGREEMENT CALLED FOR "INTERNATIONAL PARTNERS TO RESPOND POSITIVELY TO ANY GOZ REQUEST IN SUPPORT OF THE ELECTORAL PROCESS." -- THE U.S. ASKED THE RESREP TO COMMENT ON GOZ WILLINGNESS TO CONSIDER THE BROADER ROL LAW ISSUES BEYOND THE QUESTION OF ROL CONCERNING LAND. THE RESREP SAID THAT THIS WAS MORE "COMPLEX" BUT THAT THE ABUJA ACCORDS REFERRED TO THE ROL "THROUGHOUT THE COUNTRY" AND SPECIFICALLY STATED THAT LAND CANNOT BE SEPARATED FROM DEMOCRACY, HUMAN RIGHTS, AND THE ECONOMY. -- GERMANY ASKED ABOUT THE SPEED AT WHICH DONOR FUNDS MIGHT BE MADE AVAILABLE FOR LAND REFORM, TO WHICH ANGELO RESPONDED THAT THE GOZ WOULD LIKE TO SEE A CBM FROM THE DONORS THAT ENTAILED DEPOSIT OF RESOURCES IN A TRUST FUND TO BE RELEASED UPON SATISFACTORY AGREEMENT ON THE LAND REFORM PROGRAM. HE SAID THE GOZ UNDERSTOOD THAT SUCH FUNDS WOULD BE RETURNED TO THE DONORS IF THE LAND REFORM DID NOT SUCCEED. -- NORWAY ASKED ABOUT THE SADC/G-77 MEETING EARLIER IN THE DAY AND WHAT THE IMPRESSIONS OF THESE DIPLOMATS WERE. THE RESREP SAID THE SADC COUNTRIES WERE CONCERNED ABOUT THE LAGGARDLY IMPLEMENTATION OF THE AA, AND SEVERAL UNCLASSIFIED PAGE 03 HARARE 02871 03 OF 03 280803Z PRESSED THE UN TO PROCEED WITH THE ASSESSMENT AT ONCE. THE RESREP EXPLAINED THAT IT WAS NOT POSSIBLE TO IMPOSE A TEAM WITHOUT GOZ AGREEMENT. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶14. (SBU) ANGELO WAS AS UPBEAT AS POSSIBLE, WHICH WAS NOT MUCH. IN SIDE CONVERSATIONS WITH OTHER DONORS, SKEPTICISM REIGNED. WE DO NOT KNOW THE BASIS FOR ANGELO'S INFORMATION ON REDUCED TOBACCO CULTIVATION - GOZ STATISTICS, SITE VISITS, FLIGHT TRANSECTS - BUT IF HIS DATA IS CORRECT, ZIMBABWE IS IN FOR AN EVEN ROUGHER ECONOMIC RIDE TWELVE MONTHS FROM NOW. ROTH UNCLASSIFIED >