FM MUDENGE LECTURES THE DIPLOMATIC CORPS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 002787 SIPDIS NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/21/11 TAGS: PGOV PINR ZI SUBJECT: FM MUDENGE LECTURES THE DIPLOMATIC CORPS CLASSIFIED BY CDA RICHARD ROTH FOR REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY AND COMMENT: IN AN EXCRUCIATING TWO- HOUR LECTURE TO THE FULL DIPLOMATIC CORPS SEPTEMBER 20 ZIMBABWE FOREIGN MINISTER MUDENGE EXTOLLED THE GREAT SUCCESS OF THE ABUJA AGREEMENT BECAUSE "EVERYONE AGREED ON THE CENTRALITY OF THE LAND ISSUE", PRAISED THE SADC HEADS OF STATE MEETING (SEPTEMBER 10-11) BECAUSE THEY AFFIRMED THE ABUJA AGREEMENT ON LAND REFORM, AND LAID DOWN A MARKER ON THE NEED FOR FOREIGN GOVERNMENTS TO "HONOR AND RESPECT" ZIMBABWE'S LAW PROHIBITING THE FOREIGN FINANCING OF POLITICAL PARTIES. HE ALSO DEVOTED A PORTION OF HIS PRESENTATION ON THE RECENT KIGALI POLITICAL COMMITTEE MEETING ON THE DRC (SEE SEPTEL). WHILE TRYING TO REMAIN WITHIN HIS ROLE AS FOREIGN MINISTER MUDENGE FREQUENTLY DONNED HIS FAR MORE PARTISAN HAT AS A ZANU- PF MEMBER OF PARLIAMENT (MP),CONVENIENTLY SWEEPING ASIDE THE OTHER SUBSTANTIVE ASPECTS OF THE ABUJA AND SADC MEETINGS ON RULE OF LAW, CESSATION OF INTIMIDATION AND GOVERNMENT-CONDONED VIOLENCE. IT WILL BE VERY HARD TO LEVEL THIS PLAYING FIELD IF MUDENGE ACCURATELY REFLECTS THE POLICY INTENTIONS OF MUGABE AND HIS INNER CIRCLE, WHICH WE BELIEVE HE DOES. END SUMMARY AND COMMENT. -------------- ABUJA: LAND, LAND, LAND -------------- ¶2. (C) IN DESCRIBING THE SEPTEMBER 6 ABUJA MEETING, CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 02787 01 OF 02 211042Z MUDENGE SAID THAT INITIALLY IT WAS HEADED FOR A DISASTER BECAUSE OF THE TOTALLY INCOMPATIBLE PERSPECTIVES OF THE GOZ WITH THE OTHER PARTICIPANTS. IN HIS VIEW, IT WAS THROUGH THE EFFORTS OF NIGERIAN PRESIDENT OBASANJO THAT THE MEETING WAS "SAVED" BECAUSE HE WAS ABLE TO "DOWNPLAY" THE OTHER "EXTRANEOUS" ISSUES THAT THE OTHER DELEGATES WANTED TO DISCUSS AND PLACE THE FOCUS ON THE LAND REFORM QUESTION. MUDENGE CLAIMED THAT THE OTHER DELEGATES AGREED IN THE END TO THE "CENTRALITY" OF THE LAND ISSUE, BUT EXPRESSED THEIR CONCERNS ABOUT HOW IT WAS BEING IMPLEMENTED. HE MENTIONED RULE OF LAW, VIOLENCE AND THE IMPACT ON THE ECONOMY AS BEING THE PRINCIPLE CONCERNS OF THE OTHER DELEGATES. IN THE END THE COMPROMISE WAS ACCEPTED OUTLINING THE PRINCIPLES OF WHAT HE DESCRIBED AS A "PACKAGE DEAL" WITH THE COMMITMENTS OF EACH PARTY CLEARLY DEFINED. ¶3. (C) MUDENGE ASSERTED THAT THE GOZ INTENDS TO HONOR THE SPIRIT AND THE LETTER OF THE ABUJA AGREEMENT, BUT WILL DO SO IN A VERY DELIBERATE FASHION. HE ACKNOWLEDGED THAT THE GOVERNMENT HAD CONDUCTED A 12- HOUR INTERNAL MEETING OF THE POLITBURO TO DISCUSS THE IMPLICATIONS OF ABUJA AND HOW TO IMPLEMENT IT. HE CLAIMED THAT THE GOVERNMENT WAS ACCUSED BY SOME POLITBURO MEMBERS OF SELLING OUT. NEVERTHELESS, THE GOZ WILL PUT IN PLACE A MECHANISM TO IMPLEMENT THE ABUJA AGREEMENT NEXT WEEK. HE FRANKLY ACKNOWLEDGED THAT THERE HAVE BEEN INCIDENTS OF VIOLENCE UP UNTIL NOW, BUT ASCRIBED THIS TO THE FACT THAT THERE HAD NOT BEEN AN IMPLEMENTING MECHANISM IN PLACE. HE STATED CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 02787 01 OF 02 211042Z FLATLY THAT THE GOVERNMENT AND ZANU-PF WILL GREATLY REDUCE VIOLENT INCIDENTS AND BRING ABOUT A RETURN TO NORMALCY. HE ALSO SAID THAT THE GOZ WILL STOP ANY NEW OCCUPATIONS. ¶4. (C) MUDENGE ACKNOWLEDGED THAT THE GOVERNMENT HAD NOT YET HAD A SERIOUS MEETING WITH THE COMMERCIAL FARMERS, SOME OF WHOM BELIEVE THERE WILL BE "FULL COMPENSATION" FOR THEIR LAND. BUT, HE CLAIMED, MANY WILL NOT TAKE COMFORT FROM THIS BECAUSE THE ISSUE IS NOT MONEY, BUT LAND, AND MANY COMMERCIAL FARMERS WILL TRY TO ENSURE THAT ABUJA WILL NOT SUCCEED. "WE INTEND TO FULFILL OUR COMMITMENTS AND WE HOPE THAT THE UK, AUSTRALIA AND CANADA WILL FULFILL THEIRS". HE ALSO EXPRESSED THE HOPE THAT OTHERS WOULD ASSOCIATE THEMSELVES WITH THIS COMMITMENT, I.E. BE PREPARED TO CONTRIBUTE MONEY FOR LAND REFORM. -------------- SADC: WE'RE ALL IN THIS TOGETHER -------------- ¶5. (C) MUDENGE'S DESCRIPTION OF THE SADC MEETING ALSO EXCLUDED VIRTUALLY EVERY SUBSTANTIVE ISSUE EXCEPT LAND. HE ATTEMPTED TO SPIN THE MEETING AS ONE IN CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ3686 PAGE 01 HARARE 02787 02 OF 02 211042Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 DINT-00 DODE-00 DOTE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 EUR-00 FAAE-00 FBIE-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 LAB-01 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 IRM-00 SSO-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 R-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /007W -------------- 22B247 211042Z /38 O 211022Z SEP 01 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9787 INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY AMEMBASSY NAIROBI C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 002787 SIPDIS NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/21/11 TAGS: PGOV PINR ZI SUBJECT: FM MUDENGE LECTURES THE DIPLOMATIC CORPS WHICH "EVERYONE" HAD AGREED THAT LAND WAS THE CENTRAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 02787 02 OF 02 211042Z ISSUE. HE ALSO TRIED TO MAKE THE CASE THAT ZIMBABWE'S ECONOMIC WELFARE AFFECTED THE WELFARE OF THE REST OF THE REGION AND THAT WAS EXACTLY WHY SANCTIONS WOULD HAVE VERY SERIOUS CONSEQUENCES FOR ZIMBABWE'S SADC NEIGHBORS. "VILIFYING AND DEMONIZING ZIMBABWE HAS A NEGATIVE ON THE WHOLE REGION AND DISCOURAGES ECONOMIC ACTIVITY". MUDENGE THEN DRONED ON ABOUT ZIMBABWE'S INTER-DEPENDENT ECONOMIC RELATIONS WITH SOUTH AFRICA, BOTSWANA AND MOZAMBIQUE. ONLY TOWARD THE END DID HE ACKNOWLEDGE SADC'S CONCERN ABOUT THE "PERCEPTION OF VIOLENCE AND RANDOM INTIMIDATION", BUT TRIED TO DISMISS THIS AS "MANUFACTURED PROPAGANDA". -------------- STAY OUT OF OUR POLITICS -------------- ¶6. (C) AFTER AN IMPASSIONED PLEA FOR UN SECURITY COUNCIL PERM-5 MEMBERS TO URGE THEIR CAPITOLS TO SUPPORT AN INSERTION OF A LARGE UN PEACEKEEPING FORCE IN THE DRC TO REPLACE THE SMALL UN OBSERVER FORCE, MUDENGE ADDED AN UNANNOUNCED ITEM TO HIS AGENDA. TELLING THE ASSEMBLED DIP CORPS THAT HE WAS APPEALING TO THEM AS A MINISTER AND NOT AS A ZANU-PF MP, HE LAUNCHED INTO A NONE TOO THINLY VEILED WARNING THAT THEIR GOVERNMENTS MUST "HONOR AND RESPECT" THE RECENTLY PASSED GOZ LAW PROHIBITING THE FOREIGN FINANCING OF POLITICAL PARTIES. HE SAID BLUNTLY THAT THIS WOULD MEAN THAT DIRECT FOREIGN SUPPORT OF THE MDC IS FORBIDDEN. AS FOREIGN MINISTER HE HOPED THAT ACCREDITED GOVERNMENTS WOULD SEE ADHERENCE TO THIS LAW CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 02787 02 OF 02 211042Z IN THE CONTEXT OF GOOD RELATIONS. TO STRENGTHEN HIS POINT MUDENGE CLAIMED THAT THE GOZ HAD "COPIED FROM SOME OF YOUR LAWS" IN WRITING ITS OWN SIMILAR LEGISLATION. "THIS LAW IS IMPORTANT FOR OUR SOVEREIGNTY, INDEPENDENCE AND SELF-RESPECT. LET US MAKE OUR OWN MISTAKES ACCORDING TO OUR NATIONAL CHARACTER. WE HAVE OUR OWN POLITICAL CULTURE, PLEASE LET US FOLLOW IT ON OUR OWN." ¶7. (C) SHEDDING HIS MINISTERIAL CLOAK, MUDENGE INFORMED THE AUDIENCE THAT ZANU-PF INTENDS TO FIGHT VERY STRONGLY AGAINST EXTERNAL INTERFERENCE. AS FOREIGN MINISTER HE HOPED THAT HE WOULD NOT HAVE TO CALL IN ANY OF THE AMBASSADORS OR CHARGES TO CONFRONT THEM WITH VIOLATIONS BY THEIR GOVERNMENTS OF ZIMBABWE'S LAWS. HOWEVER, HE ADDED, HE WOULD NOT HESITATE TO DO SO IF THE GOZ'S INFORMATION WAS SUFFICIENT TO "PROVE" THAT FOREIGN GOVERNMENTS WERE BREAKING THE GOZ'S LAWS. -------------- ADDITIONAL COMMENT: -------------- ¶8. (C) AS ONE OF THE HARDLINERS WITHIN THE GOZ AND ZANU-PF, MUDENGE GAVE A VERY FRANK OUTLINE OF THE GOVERNMENT'S STRATEGY: PORTRAY RECENT DEVELOPMENTS AS SUPPORTING THE GOZ'S POLICIES ON LAND REFORM, DOWNPLAY ANY EFFORTS TO FOCUS ON RULE OF LAW, HUMAN RIGHTS, AND INTIMIDATION ISSUES, AND CAST THE UPCOMING ELECTION AS A "VICTORY" FOR ZANU-PF IN FINALLY GETTING BACK THE CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 02787 02 OF 02 211042Z LAND FOR THE MAJORITY OF ZIMBABWE'S CITIZENS. A BACKGROUND THEME WILL BE TO BLAME ANY LACK OF SUCCESS ON EXTERNAL INTERFERENCE AND TO TRY AND LIMIT ANY SUPPORT TO THE MDC TO THE BAREST MINIMUM. IN THE CONTEXT OF THIS MEETING THERE WASN'T EVEN A HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF ELECTION MONITORS/OBSERVERS OR PARTICIPATION BY EXTERNAL ACTORS. GIVEN MUDENGE'S MARKER ON ASSISTANCE TO POLITICAL PARTIES, WE STRONGLY BELIEVE THAT GETTING INDEPENDENT ELECTORAL PROGRAMS IN HERE WILL BE A VERY TOUGH CHALLENGE AND HIGHLY UNWELCOMED BY THE MUGABE GOVERNMENT. ROTH CONFIDENTIAL >