SADC DIPLOMATS PROVIDE READOUT ON SEPTEMBER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 HARARE 002731 SIPDIS STATE FOR AF; AF/S; AND AF/RA NSC FOR SENIOR DIRECTOR FRAZER LONDON FOR GURNEY PARIS FOR NEARY NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/18/06 TAGS: PREL ZI SUBJECT: SADC DIPLOMATS PROVIDE READOUT ON SEPTEMBER 10 AND 11 MEETING IN HARARE REF: LILONGWE 1773 CLASSIFIED BY DCM REWHITEHEAD DUE TO 1.5 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. CHARGE AND DCM HELD A SEREIS OF MEETINGS WITH THE HIGH COMMISSIONERS/COUNSELORS OF MOZAMBIQUE, MALAWI, AND SOUTH AFRICA LATE LAST WEEK TO OBTAIN THEIR VIEWS ON SEPTEMBER 10 AND 11 MEETINGS BETWEEN MUGABE AND THE ZIMBABWEANS AND SADC CHIEFS OF STATE. ALL THREE EXPRESSED SOME DEGREE OF PESSIMISM, BUT THERE WERE CLEAR NUANCES OF OPINION. THE SOUTH AFRICAN WAS MOST OPTIMISTIC ABOUT POTENTIAL GOZ ADHERENCE TO SOME ASPECTS OF THE ABUJA AGREEMENT. THE MALAWIANS AND SOUTH AFRICANS BOTH COMPLAINED ABOUT NEGATIVE COVERAGE IN THE GOZ PRESS ABOUT MULUZI AND MBEKI FOR THEIR ALLEGEDLY PRO-UK AND U.S. STANCES DURING THE MEETING. THE SOUTH AFRICANS AND MOZAMBICANS ALSO EXPRESSED DISCOMFORT WITH THE MILITANCY AND LACK OF DISCRETION OF TSVANGIRAI AND THE MDC. CERTAIN IMPORTANT AGENDA ITEMS, INCLUDING THE PRESENCE OF INTERNATIONAL ELECTION OBSERVERS, WERE NOT COVERED DUE A LACK OF TIME. THE NEXT STEP IS A FOLLOW-UP BY A TEAM OF SADC MINISTERS, NOT YET SCHEDULED BUT HOPEFULLY BEFORE THE BRISBANE SUMMIT. THIS PRESENTS US WITH AN OPPORTUNITY TO APPROACH OUR FRIENDS IN SADC AND THE COMMONWEALTH TO URGE THAT THESE ELECTORAL ISSUES ARE RAISED AT THE COMMONWEALTH HEADS OF GOVERNMENT MEETING (CHOGM). END CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 02731 01 OF 04 180546Z SUMMARY. -------------- MOZAMBIQUE -------------- ¶2. (C) HIGH COMMISSIONER ANTONIO SUMBANA STATED THAT, IN THE WAKE OF THE MEETINGS, PERHAPS "WE SHOULD CONCLUDE" THAT SOUTHERN AFRICA WILL REMAIN EMBROILED IN CONFLICT. HE LABELED THIS A PROBLEM FOR MOZAMBIQUE, WHICH REMAINS CLOSELY LINKED TO THE INFRASTRUCTURE AND SERVICES OF BOTH ZIMBABWE AND SOUTH AFRICA. HE SAID THAT THE HARARE EETING CONCENTRATED ON LAW AND ORDER, WITH THE SDC DELEGATIONS STRESSING THE NEED FOR TRANSPARENY ON THE PART OF THE GOZ, AND GOZ ACTION RATHER TAN WORDS. IN RESPONSE, CHINOTIMBA AND THE WAR VTERANS CHARGED INTERFERENCE IN INTERNAL AFFAIRS. SUMBANA SAID THAT THE GOZ PERCEIVE SOUTH AFRICA AN MOZAMBIQUE AS WESTERN PROXIES. THE ZIMBABWEANSCLAIMED THAT VIOLENCE REMAINS ISOLATED AND THAT SCURITY FORCES REACT WHEN THEY ARE INFORMED OF INIDENTS. THE GOZ ALSO STRESSED THAT THEIR ACTION ARE LEGAL. SUMBANA SAID THAT THE SADC DELEGATINS COUNTERED BY URGING THE GOZ TO DELIST QUALIFID PROPERTIES AS PROMISED IN ABUJA, ESCHEW VIOLENC, AND SEEK DIALOGUE. ¶3. (C) SUMBANA CONTINUED HAT THE GOZ ATTEMPTED TO PUT A POSITIVE SPIN ON HINGS. THEY CITED THE UNDP ROLE ACCEPTED N ABJA AND SAID THAT A UNDP TEAM WOULD ASSESS THE LAND DISTRIBUTION SITUATION. SADC DELEGATES POINTED TO THE UK COMMITMENT IN ABUJA AND ADVISED MUGABE TO SIT CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 02731 01 OF 04 180546Z DOWN WITH UK HIGH COMMISSIONER DONNELLY TO DISCUSS BRITISH UNDERTAKINGS. THEY SAID THAT SADC WAS AWARE OF THE PROBLEM WITH AGRICULTURAL INPUTS FOR RESETTLED PERSONS, TO WHICH THE ZIMBABWEANS DECLARED THAT SADC NEEDED TO BE PART OF THE SOLUTION. MUGABE REACTED CAREFULLY TO SADC STATEMENTS THAT THE GOZ NEEDS TO LOOK FOR POSITIVES, SINCE CONFRONTATION HAS THE POTENTIAL TO SPLIT SADC. THE SADC DELEGATES AGREED WITH THE ZIMBABWEANS THAT LAND REFORM IS ACCEPTABLE BUT SAID THAT THE CURRENT METHODS BEING USED ARE NOT. ¶4. (C) THE NEXT PHASE OF THE MEETING CONSISTED OF TRIPARTITE ENCOUNTERS BETWEEN THE SADC AND GOZ DELEGATIONS AND REPRESENTATIVES OF OPPOSITION POLITICAL PARTIES, LABOR, THE CHURCHES, AND CIVIL SOCIETY. (FOR SPECIFICS, SEE THE COMMUNIQUE FAXED TO AF/S.) SUMBANA SAID THAT THE SADC DELEGATES WERE AWARE THAT THE ZIMBABWEANS HAD TRIED TO STAGE-MANAGE THE EVENT BY PACKING THE SCHEDULE WITH THEIR SUPPORTERS, INCLUDING WAR VETERANS, A PET LABOR CONFEDERATION, AND RUMP NGOS. TO SOME DEGREE THIS STRATEGY BACKFIRED, AS EXEMPLIFIED BY WAR VETERAN DEMANDS THAT THE GOZ GIVE THE VETS HOMES AND MONEY TO INVEST AS WELL AS LAND. CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTO0604 PAGE 01 HARARE 02731 02 OF 04 180546Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 USNW-00 DODE-00 DOEE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EUR-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 NRRC-00 NSAE-00 OMB-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 IRM-00 SSO-00 SS-00 TRSE-00 T-00 USIE-00 R-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /005W -------------- 20B937 180546Z /38 O 180528Z SEP 01 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9735 INFO SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY IMMEDIATE NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE AMEMBASSY LONDON IMMEDIATE C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 04 HARARE 002731 SIPDIS STATE FOR AF; AF/S; AND AF/RA NSC FOR SENIOR DIRECTOR FRAZER LONDON FOR GURNEY PARIS FOR NEARY NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/18/06 CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 02731 02 OF 04 180546Z TAGS: PREL ZI SUBJECT: SADC DIPLOMATS PROVIDE READOUT ON SEPTEMBER 10 AND 11 MEETING IN HARARE ¶5. (C) ACCORDING TO SUMBANA, THE COMMERCIAL FARMERS UNION OFFERED A NUANCED AND NON-CONFRONTATIONAL VIEW OF WHAT NEEDED TO BE DONE. SUMBANA SAID THAT TSVANGIRAI, WHO TOOK THE LEAD FOR THE MDC, WAS "TOO MILITANT." HE SAID THAT THE MDC MUST BECOME MORE PRAGMATIC AND ATTEMPT TO DEPERSONALIZE ITS APPROACH TO MUGABE. SUMBANA SAID THAT THE MDC MUST FORGE A STRATEGY FOR RECONCILIATION, INCLUDING SOME POSSIBLE STATUE OF LIMITATIONS FOR MUGABE AND OTHER SENIOR ZANU-PF OFFICIALS. GIVE AND TAKE WOULD BE THE KEY TO SUCCESS. SADC WAS TRYING TO SET UP TALKS BETWEEN THE GOZ AND MDC, BUT MDC LEADERSHIP WAS DIFFICULT. ¶6. (C) SUMBANA EXPLAINED THAT IT WAS ESSENTIAL THAT THE GOZ HAVE FOREKNOWLEDGE OF CONTACTS BETWEEN SADC STATES AND THE ZIMBABWEAN OPPOSITION IN ORDER NOT TO STOKE THE PARANOIA OF THE GOZ. HOWEVER, THE MDC HAD SHOWN A LACK OF DISCRETION IN ITS DEALINGS WITH OUTSIDERS, PREFERRING TO SCORE PUBLIC RELATIONS POINTS RATHER THAN ADVANCING NEGOTIATIONS. HE CITED A MEETING IN LATE 2000 IN SOUTH AFRICA BETWEEN AN OFFICIAL OF THE MOZAMBICAN MINISTRY OF HOME AFFAIRS AND THE MDC. DESPITE AN AGREED COMMUNIQUE, THE MDC HAD GONE TO THE PRESS AND SPILLED THE DETAILS OF THE DISCUSSION, INACCURATELY CLAIMING THAT THE MOZAMBICAN HOME AFFAIRS MINISTER HAD PARTICIPATED. SUMBANA SAID THAT HE DID NOT KNOW IF THE MALAWIANS OR SOUTH AFRICANS HAD MANAGED TO CARRY ON A DISCREET CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 02731 02 OF 04 180546Z DIALOGUE WITH THE MDC. ¶7. (C) SUMBANA BRIEFLY DISCUSSED SOME OF MOZAMBIQUE'S IMMEDIATE INTERESTS IN A NEGOTIATED SOLUTION TO ZIMBABWE'S POLITICAL/ECONOMIC CRISIS. IN ADDITION TO MAJOR TRADE AND INFRASTRUCTURE TIES, AN ESTIMATED 16,000 MOZAMBICANS LIVE IN ZIMBABWE, MOST IN THE CAPACITY OF COMMERCIAL FARM WORKERS AND MINERS. SINCE MANY ARE SECOND GENERATION AND FOR ALL PURPOSES HAVE BECOME ZIMBABWEANS, THERE ARE NO ACCURATE FIGURES BEYOND THE 5,000 OR SO WHOM THE MOZAMBICAN HIGH COMMISSION BELIEVES CAN LEGALLY CLAIM MOZAMBICAN CITIZENSHIP. ¶8. (C) THE CHARGE STRESSED THAT ONCE SADC HAS GAINED MUGABE'S CONFIDENCE, IT IS IMPORTANT TO EMPHASIZE THE NEED FOR CLEAN AND PEACEFUL ELECTIONS, PREFERABLY BUTTRESSED BY PRE-ELECTION VOTER EDUCATION. ABOVE ALL ELSE, THERE SHOULD BE NO ATTEMPT TO DELINK POLITICS FROM ECONOMICS. SUMBANA REPLIED THAT A GO-SLOW APPROACH, WITH PRIORITIES CLEARLY ESTABLISHED, WAS BEST. HE SAID THAT PRESS REPORTS OF A SADC DEADLINE FOR ZIMBABWEAN ACTION WERE INACCURATE. A TEAM OF MINISTER WILL FOLLOW UP AND PROVIDE THE REPORTING MECHANISM. -------------- MALAWI -------------- ¶9. (C) DEPUTY HIGH COMMISSIONER ELIAS CHIJOTA SAID THAT HIS BOSS, CURRENTLY ILL AND OUT OF THE OFFICE, HAD ATTENDED MORE OF THE SESSIONS THAN CHIJOTA HAD. HE CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 02731 02 OF 04 180546Z REPEATED THE MESSAGE (REFTEL) THAT THE GOM IS NOT PLEASED BY ATTACKS ON PRESIDENT MULUZI IN THE OFFICIAL GOZ PRESS DUE TO MULUZI'S FRANK COMMENTS ON THE DETERIORATING SITUATION IN ZIMBABWE AND ITS IMPACT ON THE REGION. CHIJOTA SAID THAT THERE WAS WIDESPREAD SKEPTICISM AMONG MALAWIAN POLICYMAKERS ABOUT THE GOZ'S COMMITMENT TO MEASURES THEY HAD ACCEPTED IN ABUJA, INCLUDING AN END TO VIOLENCE AND NEW FARM OCCUPATIONS. HE SCOFFED AT THE LIST OF OUTSIDE PARTICIPANTS THAT THE GOZ "HAD IMPOSED" FOR THE SERIES OF TRILATERAL SESSIONS BUT NOTED THAT MDC, CFU, AND OTHER REPRESENTATIVES HAD AT TIMES MADE MUGABE AND THE GOZ SQUIRM. HE CONCLUDED THAT THERE WAS NO WAY THE GOZ COUD OBSCURE THE TRUTH. ¶10. (SBU) CHIJOTA CLAIMEDTHAT THE GOM HAS SPECIAL CONCERNS ABOUT THE INCRASINGLY DIFFICULT SITUATION IN ZIMBABWE, SINCE A MANY AS 2 MILLION INDIVIDUALS LIVING HERE CAN CLIM MALAWIAN ANCESTRY. WHEN DCM EXPRESSED SURPRIE AT THIS NUMBER, CHIJOTA STATED THAT A LACK OF ECORDS PREVENTS ANY TRULY ACCURATE ESTIMATE. HOWEVER, THE NUMBERS ARE HUGE, AND THIS MASS RISKS BECOMING STATELESS PERSONS IF THE GOZ PERSISTS IN PURSUING PRESENT HARD-LINE POLICIES AGAINST FARM WORKERS. HE ADDED THAT THUS FAR, TO HIS SURPRISE, VIRTUALLY NO ONE CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTO0605 PAGE 01 HARARE 02731 03 OF 04 180546Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 USNW-00 DODE-00 DOEE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EUR-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 NRRC-00 NSAE-00 OMB-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 IRM-00 SSO-00 SS-00 TRSE-00 T-00 USIE-00 R-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /005W -------------- 20B942 180546Z /38 O 180528Z SEP 01 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9736 INFO SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY IMMEDIATE NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE AMEMBASSY LONDON IMMEDIATE C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 04 HARARE 002731 SIPDIS STATE FOR AF; AF/S; AND AF/RA NSC FOR SENIOR DIRECTOR FRAZER LONDON FOR GURNEY PARIS FOR NEARY NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/18/06 CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 02731 03 OF 04 180546Z TAGS: PREL ZI SUBJECT: SADC DIPLOMATS PROVIDE READOUT ON SEPTEMBER 10 AND 11 MEETING IN HARARE HAD TURNED UP AT THE HIGH COMMISSION TO REQUEST REPATRIATION TO MALAWI. -------------- SOUTH AFRICA -------------- ¶11. (C) HIGH COMMISSIONER A.J.D. NDOU OFFERED A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT VIEW OF THE MEETING THAN HAD HIS MOZAMBICAN COUNTERPART. HE LED OFF WITH A PREAMBLE ON THE SENSITIVITIES IN THE ZIMBABWE/SOUTH AFRICAN BILATERAL RELATIONSHIP STEMMING FROM THE PRE- INDEPENDENCE SCHISM BETWEEN THE ZANU/CHINESE/PAC POLE AND THE ANC/ZAPU POLE. MANDELA'S METEORIC ACCESSION TO GLOBAL PROMINENCE IN THE EARLY 1990'S HAD COMPLETELY OVERSHADOWED MUGABE'S ROLE AND FURTHER EXACERBATED THE STRAINS. NDOU SAID THAT CURRENT RELATIONS BETWEEN THE TWO COUNTRIES MUST BE APPROACHED FROM THIS HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE. THIS WAS ONE REASON WHY THE GOZ HAD ACCUSED SOUTH AFRICA (AND MALAWI) OF CARRYING THE WATER FOR THE UK AND US ON THE LAND REFORM ISSUE. ¶12. (C) NDOU CHARACTERIZED THE RESULTS OF THE MEETING AS MIXED. ON THE NEGATIVE SIDE, THEY HAD BEEN UNABLE TO CONCLUDE THE AGENDA, INCLUDING THE IMPORTANT ITEM OF ELECTION MONITORING. NDOU SAID IMPORTANT ELEMENTS OF THE EVENT HAD BEEN MINIMIZED IN THE LAST-MINUTE RUSH TO CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 02731 03 OF 04 180546Z AGREE ON A JOINT COMMUNIQUE. HE SAID THAT MUGABE HAD BEEN CLEARLY DISCOMFITTED BY HIS FIRST FACE-TO-FACE MEETING WITH TSVANGIRAI IN THREE YEARS. HE ADDED THAT TSVANGIRAI WAS WELL SPOKEN AND DID NOT RISE TO THE JIBES SIPDIS OF MUGABE'S ENTOURAGE, INSTEAD INSISTING THAT IT WAS TIME FOR EVERYONE TO ADMIT THAT ZIMBABWE WAS IN A CRISIS. NDOU SAID THAT TSVANGIRAI HAD STRESSED THAT CONFRONTING COMMON PROBLEMS IS MORE IMPORTANT THAN SCORING PUBLICITY POINTS. ¶13. (C) IN SPITE OF THE DOWNSIDES, NDOU CONTINUED, THERE WERE A NUMBER OF PLUSES. THE ATTEMPT TO CREATE A BROAD INTERPARTY COMMITTEE TO EXAMINE THE CRISIS HAD FAILED, BUT THERE HAD BEEN AGREEMENT TO FORM A MULTIPARTY PARLIAMENTARY COMMITTEE. NDOU SAID THAT HE THOUGHT THAT MUGABE WOULD FOLLOW THROUGH ON SOME ABUJA COMMITMENTS, ALTHOUGH IT WAS CLEAR THAT ZIMBABWE AND THE UK EACH HAD A VERY DIFFERENT PERCEPTION ON WHAT HAD BEEN AGREED THERE. ¶14. (C) NDOU SAID THAT PERCEPTIONS REMAIN A LARGE PART OF THE PROBLEM. THE SADC DELEGATES HAD URGED THE GOZ SIDE TO UNDERSTAND THAT, WHATEVER THE GOZ VIEW, THERE WAS AN INTERNATIONAL PERCEPTION OF LAWLESSNESS IN ZIMBABWE. NDOU SAID THAT BREAD AND JOBS ARE THE ISSUES THAT PREOCCUPY MOST ZIMBABWEANS, NOT LAND. HOWEVER, MUGABE AND MANY IN THE GOZ SEEM GENUINELY TOO BELIEVE THAT LAND IS THE CENTRAL ISSUE. SADC ATTEMPTS TO PROMOTE THE TWIN THEMES OF THE ECONOMY AND THE LAND DURING THE MEETINGS HAD FAILED TO MOVE THE GOZ OFF ITS FOCUS ON LAND. NDOU SAID HE FELT THAT AN INCREASINGLY CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 02731 03 OF 04 180546Z ISOLATED MUGABE HAD BEEN MISLED BY HIS INNER CIRCLE ON THIS POINT, ESPECIALLY CHIEF ZANU PROPAGANDIST CUM INFORMATION MINISTER JONATHAN MOYO, "WHO IS NOT GOOD FRIENDS WITH THE TRUTH." IN DIPLOMATIC APPROACHES IN VARIOUS SADC CAPITALS, ZANU-PF HAD ACCUSED NDOU AND OTHER SADC AMBASSADORS OF DISTORTING THE FACTS ABOUT WHAT WAS ACTUALLY GOING ON IN ZIMBABWE. ¶15. (C) NDOU SAID THAT THE SADC MEMBERS HAD URGED THE ZIMBABWEANS TO GO TO THE IMF AND TRY TO NORMALIZE RELATIONS, A MOVE THAT THE DONORS WOULD NOTICE. NDOU ADDED THAT NEGOTIATION, NOT THE "GO TO HELL" APPROACH HERETOFORE ADOPTED BY THE GOZ, WAS NEEDED. HE ADMITTED THAT QUIET DIPLOMACY WAS NOT WORKING: "THE ZIMBABWEANS WILL AGREE IN PRIVATE, THEN CONTRADICT THESE UNDERSTANDINGS AS SOON AS THEY WALK OUT THE DOOR." ¶16. (C) NDOU DID NOT VIEW THE ABUJA AGREEMENT AS A MAJOR BREAKTHROUGH FOR THE UN. HE SAID THE LAND REFORM POSITION AGREED TO BY THE UNDP IN DECEMBER, 2000 HAD BEEN IRREVOCABLY ALTERED BY SUBSEQUENT EVENTS ON THE GROUND. ZIMBABWEAN FOREIGN MINISTER MUDENGE'S ACCEPTANCE OF THE FORMER UNDP POSITION WAS MEANINGLESS. NDOU SAID THAT SADC AND MBEKI HAD WORKED TO GET UNSYG CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTO0606 PAGE 01 HARARE 02731 04 OF 04 180546Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 USNW-00 DODE-00 DOEE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EUR-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 NRRC-00 NSAE-00 OMB-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 IRM-00 SSO-00 SS-00 TRSE-00 T-00 USIE-00 R-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /005W -------------- 20B947 180546Z /38 O 180528Z SEP 01 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9737 INFO SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY IMMEDIATE NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE AMEMBASSY LONDON IMMEDIATE C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 04 OF 04 HARARE 002731 SIPDIS STATE FOR AF; AF/S; AND AF/RA NSC FOR SENIOR DIRECTOR FRAZER LONDON FOR GURNEY PARIS FOR NEARY NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/18/06 CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 02731 04 OF 04 180546Z TAGS: PREL ZI SUBJECT: SADC DIPLOMATS PROVIDE READOUT ON SEPTEMBER 10 AND 11 MEETING IN HARARE ANNAN MORE INVOLVED IN THE EQUATION. IN AN ASIDE, NDOU SAID THAT MBEKI'S RAPID DEPARTURE FROM THE CONFERENCE HALL, REPORTED IN THE OPPOSITION PRESS AS MBEKI STORMING OUT IN REACTION TO WAR VETERAN STATEMENTS, HAD IN FACT BEEN A RUSH UPSTAIRS TO FIELD A PRE-ARRANGED PHONE CALL FROM ANNAN. HE SAID THAT THE GOZ HAS REJECTED A PROPOSED VISIT BY THE UNDP LAND REFORM ASSESSMENT TEAM BECAUSE OF A DIFFERENCE OVER TERMS OF REFERENCE. NDOU SAID THAT THE VISIT OF THE SADC MINISTERIAL FOLLOW-UP TEAM HAS NOT YET BEEN SCHEDULED, ALTHOUGH HE EXPECTS THIS TO OCCUR BEFORE THE BRISBANE CHOGM MEETING. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶17. (C) NEIGHBORING SADC COUNTRIES ARE INCREASINGLY CONCERNED WITH THE RAMIFICATIONS OF MUGABE'S POLICIES ON THEIR OWN WELFARE AND INCREASINGLY WILLING TO TELL HIM SO TO HIS FACE. THIS PROVIDES AN OPENING FOR US, IF THE SADC MINISTERIAL FOLLOW-UP COMES OFF BEFORE BRISBANE, TO URGE REGIONAL STATES TO ADDRESS THE FULL AGENDA OF ELECTORAL ISSUES: VOTER TRAINING, INTERNATIONAL ELECTION MONITORS, AND AN OPEN AND TRANSPARENT VOTING PROCESS. AN INCREASINGLY ISOLATED MUGABE MAY BE FORCED TO LISTEN TO HIS COUNTERPARTS, AS HE DID ON SEPTEMBER 10 AND 11, WHETHER OR NOT HE LIKES THE MESSAGE THEY BRING. END CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 02731 04 OF 04 180546Z COMMENT. ROTH CONFIDENTIAL >