MDC WINS BULAWAYO IN LANDSLIDE BUT LOSES MAKONI WEST

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 002678 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER LONDON FOR GURNEY PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER E.O. 12958: DECL. 09/12/11 TAGS: PGOV PHUM ZI SUBJECT: MDC WINS BULAWAYO IN LANDSLIDE BUT LOSES MAKONI WEST PARLIAMENTARY SEAT CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF MATT HARRINGTON. REASONS: 1.5 (B) AND (D). REF: A) HARARE 2666 B) HARARE 2642 BULAWAYO -------------- ¶1. (U) AS EXPECTED, THE OPPOSITION MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE (MDC) SWEPT THE SEPTEMBER 8-9 ELECTIONS IN BULAWAYO, WINNING THE MAYORAL RACE AND ALL SEVEN CITY COUNCIL SEATS UNDER CONTENTION BY A LANDSLIDE. THE MDC'S MAYORAL CANDIDATE, JAPHET NDABENI-NCUBE, WON 83 PERCENT OF THE VOTES CAST (REPRESENTING 60,988 VOTES), WHILE ZANU-PF'S GEORGE MLILO GARNERED ONLY 17 PERCENT (12,783 VOTES). THIS WAS THE FIRST DIRECT POPULAR ELECTION FOR THE MAYORSHIP OF BULAWAYO; PREVIOUS MAYORS WERE APPOINTED OR SELECTED BY THE CITY COUNCIL. AN ECSTATIC NDABENI-NCUBE TOLD JOURNALISTS AFTER HIS VICTORY WAS ANNOUNCED, "WE ARE REALLY ON THE ROAD TO DEMOCRATIC CHANGE. THIS IS A VICTORY FOR THE PEOPLE OF BULAWAYO." THE OPPOSITION PARTY WON ALL SEVEN COUNCIL SEATS BY HUGE MARGINS, GARNERING 72 PERCENT OF THE VOTE IN THE CLOSEST WARD AND 85 PERCENT IN THE MDC'S MOST CONVINCING WIN. THE MDC NOW HOLDS NINE OF THE 29 SEATS ON BULAWAYO'S CITY COUNCIL (ZANU-PF CONTROLS 17 AND THE REMAINING 3 SEATS ARE HELD BY INDEPENDENTS). ¶2. (C) THE RESULTS WERE MARRED BY SOME VIOLENCE AND THE REPORTED HARASSMENT OF MDC OFFICIALS, INCLUDING NDABENI-NCUBE HIMSELF. AS NEWS SPREAD THAT THE MDC HAD WON ALL SEVEN CITY COUNCIL SEATS, GROUPS OF WAR VETERANS AND ZANU-PF YOUTHS RAMPAGED THROUGH SEVERAL STREETS IN BULAWAYO. ACCORDING TO PRESS REPORTS, THE GROUPS BEAT AND STONED THOSE SUSPECTED OF BEING AN OPPOSITION SUPPORTER; DOZENS OF CARS WERE REPORTEDLY STONED AND SOME PROPERTY WAS CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 02678 01 OF 02 120925Z DAMAGED. ARMED RIOT POLICE WERE DEPLOYED TO DISPERSE THE GROUPS. SHARI EPPEL, DIRECTOR OF THE BULAWAYO BRANCH OF THE RESPECTED HUMAN RIGHTS ORGANIZATION AMANI TRUST, TOLD POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF THAT TEN PEOPLE WERE INJURED IN THE MELEE, ONE OF WHOM WAS HOSPITALIZED WITH A SERIOUS STAB WOUND. ASKED WHETHER THE VICTIMS WERE PREDOMINANTLY SUPPORTERS OF ONE POLITICAL PARTY, EPPEL SAID THEY ALL APPEARED TO BE INNOCENT PASSERS-BY. ¶3. (U) IN WHAT APPEARED TO BE PRIMARILY A CASE OF SOUR GRAPES, NDABENI-NCUBE WAS ACCUSED BY POLICE OF BRIBING A VOTER WHEN HE HANDED A Z$20 NOTE (EQUIVALENT TO SIX U.S. CENTS) TO HIS UNCLE TO BUY A DRINK, WHILE HIS UNCLE WAS WAITING TO CAST HIS BALLOT. THE PROSECUTOR'S OFFICE DECLINED TO PROSECUTE. MORE DISTURBING, DURING THE EVENING OF SEPTEMBER 9, THREE SHOTS WERE FIRED IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF A GROUP OF SENIOR MDC OFFICIALS WHICH INCLUDED VICE-PRESIDENT GIBSON SIBANDA, SECRETARY-GENERAL WELSHMAN NCUBE, DIRECTOR FOR ELECTIONS PAUL THEMBA-NYATHI, AND NATIONAL TREASURER FLETCHER DULINI. FORTUNATELY, NO ONE WAS INJURED. MDC SPOKESMAN LEARNMORE JONGWE DESCRIBED THE INCIDENT AS A "NAKED ATTEMPT TO ASSASSINATE THE VICE-PRESIDENT." WE ARE NOT COMFORTABLE WITH THIS CHARACTERIZATION ABSENT ANY INDEPENDENT CORROBORATION. MAKONI WEST -------------- ¶4. (C) ZANU-PF'S GIBSON MUNYORO EASILY WON THE PARLIAMENTARY BY- ELECTION IN MAKONI WEST WITH 62 PERCENT OF THE VOTE (10,610 VOTES),DEFEATING THE MDC'S REMUS MAKUWAZA, WHO GARNERED 34 PERCENT (5841 VOTES). THREE THOUSAND FEWER VOTERS CAST THEIR BALLOTS THAN IN THE JUNE 2000 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION; THE MDC CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 02678 01 OF 02 120925Z SECURED 1515 FEWER VOTES THIS TIME WHILE ZANU-PF RECEIVED 528 FEWER VOTES. THE DECLINE IN VOTER TURNOUT MAY BE EXPLAINED BY THE FACT THAT THIS WAS A BY-ELECTION. WE SUSPECT THAT MANY RESIDENTS DID NOT BELIEVE IT WAS WORTH MAKING THE SIGNIFICANT EFFORT TO GET TO THE NEAREST POLLING STATION WHEN THE STAKES DID NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY HIGH. PRE-ELECTION VIOLENCE PROBABLY ALSO DETERRED SOME VOTERS. THE ZANU-PF LEADERSHIP WAS ELATED BY THE OUTCOME, WHICH THE PROVINCIAL PARTY SPOKESMAN CHARLES PEMHENAYI HERALDED AS A SIGN THAT "IMPERIALISM IS ON THE WAY OUT. THE ELECTION WAS AN INDICATION OF HOW THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION WILL GO AFTER REALIZING THAT THE MDC WAS BEING SPONSORED BY IMPERIALISTS." COMMENT -------------- ¶5. (C) THE RESULTS IN BULAWAYO AND MAKONI WEST, WHICH SURPRISED FEW OBSERVERS, CONFIRMED THE MDC'S OVERWHELMING ADVANTAGE IN URBANIZED AREAS AND THE RULING PARTY'S CONTINUING STRENGTH IN RURAL REGIONS. THE BULAWAYO RESULT IS PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT, AS IT GIVES THE MDC CONTROL OF THE MAYORAL SEATS IN TWO OF ZIMBABWE'S PRINCIPAL CITIES -- MASVINGO IS THE OTHER ONE -- AND POTENTIAL OPPORTUNITIES TO DEMONSTRATE EFFECTIVE EXECUTIVE LEADERSHIP. SENIOR MDC OFFICIALS HAVE TOLD US REGULARLY THAT THEIR PARTY ONLY NEEDS TO GARNER 30-40 PERCENT OF THE VOTE IN RURAL CONSTITUENCIES CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ6397 PAGE 01 HARARE 02678 02 OF 02 120925Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 AMAD-00 CIAE-00 DODE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 EUR-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 STR-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 PRM-01 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /009W -------------- 1DD8A3 120925Z /38 P 120909Z SEP 01 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9688 INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY AMEMBASSY NAIROBI C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 002678 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER LONDON FOR GURNEY PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER E.O. 12958: DECL. 09/12/11 TAGS: PGOV PHUM ZI SUBJECT: MDC WINS BULAWAYO IN LANDSLIDE BUT LOSES MAKONI WEST PARLIAMENTARY SEAT IN ORDER TO WIN THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION; BY THAT MEASURE, WE CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 02678 02 OF 02 120925Z EXPECT THE MDC WILL CONSIDER THE MAKONI RESULT SATISFACTORY. ROTH CONFIDENTIAL >