EDDISON ZVOBGO ON SANCTIONS, PRESIDENTIAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 002594

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF, AF/RA, AND AF/S

LONDON FOR GURNEY

PARIS FOR NEARY

NSC FOR SENIOR DIRECTOR FRAZER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/03/06
TAGS: PREL PGOV EFIN PINR ZI
SUBJECT: EDDISON ZVOBGO ON SANCTIONS, PRESIDENTIAL
CANDIDATES, AND ZANU-PF ELECTORAL PROSPECTS


CLASSIFIED BY DCM REWHITEHEAD DUE TO 1.5 (B0 AND (D).


1. (C) SUMMARY. ON AUGUST 30, DCM AND POLOFF MET WITH
EDDISON ZVOBGO, ZANU-PF KINGPIN FROM MASVINGO AND ONE OF
THE MOST PROMINENT ANTI-MUGABE MEMBERS OF ZANU-PF.
ZVOBGO QUIZZED US ABOUT POSSIBLE U.S. SANCTIONS THAT
MIGHT BE LEVIED AGAINST MUGABE/ZIMBABWE/ZANU-PF IN THE
WAKE OF FAILED 2002 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS. HE WAS FIRM
THAT MUGABE WILL STAND AS THE ZANU-PF CANDIDATE BUT
STATED UNEQUIVOCALLY THAT THE MDC'S TSVANGIRAI WOULD WIN
A HEAD-TO-HEAD CONTEST WITH MUGABE DESPITE ZANU-PF
EFFORTS TO RIG THE GAME. ZVOBGO WAS DISMISSIVE OF
TSVANGIRAI'S PRESIDENTIAL POTENTIAL, CHARACTERIZING THE

SIPDIS
MDC LEADER AS SHALLOW AND UNAWARE OF THE ENORMITY OF THE
CHALLENGES AHEAD. ZVOBGO HEDGED ON WHETHER MUGABE WILL
RESPECT THE OUTCOME OF A VOTE THAT, FOR WHATEVER REASON,
DOES NOT GO HIS WAY. END SUMMARY.

--------------
THE CROSS EXAMINATION
--------------


2. (C) ZVOBGO, A LONG-TIME ZANU-PF INSIDER WHOM MUGABE
PURGED FROM THE POLITBURO IN 2000 FOR OPPOSING MUGABE'S
HARDBALL POLICIES, IS ALSO A SEASONED MP AND A LAWYER OF
CONSIDERABLE REPUTE. HE LAUNCHED AT ONCE INTO A CROSS-
EXAMINATION, INQUIRING EXACTLY WHAT OUTCOMES THE U.S.
SEEKS IN ZIMBABWE. DCM REPLIED THAT RESTORATION OF THE
RULE OF LAW, AN END TO POLITICAL VIOLENCE AND HUMAN
RIGHTS VIOLATIONS, RATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICIES, AND
RESPECT FOR THE RESULTS OF 2002 PRESIDENTIAL POLLS (THAT
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 03 HARARE 02594 01 OF 03 041303Z
ARE NOT FATALLY FLAWED) ARE THE BASIC BENCHMARKS.
ZVOBGO QUERIED ABOUT SECRETARY POWELL'S LIKELY REACTION
IN THE "UNLIKELY" EVENT OF AN ELECTION THAT ZANU-PF
LOSES BUT -- DESPITE OBSERVER CORROBORATION THAT THE
ELECTION WAS VALID -- DOES NOT ACCEPT. DCM RESPONDED
THAT THE REACTION THROUGHOUT THE USG WOULD BE SHARPLY
NEGATIVE. THIS WOULD TRIGGER A DOWNTURN IN THE
BILATERAL RELATIONSHIP.


3. (C) ASSUMING ZDERA IS EVENTUALLY ENACTED INTO LAW,
ZVOBGO ASKED, WHAT SANCTIONS, BESIDES THOSE MENTIONED IN
THE SENATE TEXT, WOULD THE USG IMPOSE? DCM POINTED OUT
THAT THE INCENTIVES LISTED IN THE SENATE VERSION (WHICH
ZVOBGO HAD STUDIED) IN FACT REFLECT THE STATUS QUO. ANY
POSSIBLE PUNITIVE SANCTIONS ASIDE, ZIMBABWE STANDS TO
PROFIT ENORMOUSLY FROM USG SUPPORT ON THE INCENTIVES
SECTION OF THE ACT. DCM ASKED ZVOBGO WHAT SANCTIONS HE
THOUGHT WOULD BE EFFECTIVE IN MOVING MUGABE AND HIS
ENTOURAGE AWAY FROM PRESENT POLICIES.


4. (C) ZVOBGO REPLIED THAT HE DID NOT HAVE A GOOD
ANSWER. HOWEVER, IT WAS CLEAR THAT BLANKET ECONOMIC
SANCTIONS WOULD BE DEVASTATING FOR ZIMBABWE AND ITS
PEOPLE. DCM RESPONDED THAT SUCH MEASURES ARE NOT
PRESENTLY CONTEMPLATED. ZVOBGO OBSERVED THAT FOREIGN
MINISTER MUDENGE HAS THREATENED A STATE OF EMERGENCY IF
ZDERA IS ENACTED, AT WHICH TIME ZVOBGO ANTICIPATES THE
GOZ WILL REIMPOSE A COMMAND AND CONTROL ECONOMY. HE
NOTED THAT ZIMBABWE WOULD SOON HAVE ARREARS OF USD 1
BILLION IN DEBT SERVICE. HE ASKED IF THE BANK AND FUND
WERE PREPARED TO WATCH ZIMBABWE'S ECONOMY COLLAPSE. DCM
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 04 HARARE 02594 01 OF 03 041303Z
OBSERVED THAT WHILE HE WAS UNABLE TO SPEAK FOR THE
IFI'S, IT WAS DIFFICULT TO CONTEMPLATE THESE
INSTITUTIONS, OR OTHERS, RUSHING TO ASSIST ZIMBABWE IN
THE WAKE OF FATALLY FLAWED ELECTIONS AND CONTINUED SELF-
DESTRUCTIVE ECONOMIC POLICIES.

--------------
MUGABE WILL STAND
--------------


5. (C) ZVOBGO CONFIRMED THAT, BARRING A "MIRACLE",
MUGABE WILL BE ZANU-PF'S CANDIDATE IN 2002. HE DID NOT
THINK THAT THE SPECIAL ZANU-PF CONGRESS IN NOVEMBER
COULD DO ANYTHING ABOUT THIS, SINCE MUGABE HAS SHOWN NO
INDICATION THAT HE PLANS TO STEP DOWN. ZVOBGO NOTED
BITTERLY THAT NO ONE IN MUGABE'S INNER CIRCLE OF
"CRONIES AND BOOTLICKERS" HAD THE GUTS TO TELL MUGABE
THAT IT IS TIME TO GO.


6. (C) "I'M FULL OF ADMIRATION FOR THE ZAMBIANS FOR
WHAT THEY'VE JUST DONE," HE SAID (REFERRING TO THE
REJECTION OF PRESIDENT CHILUBA'S THIRD-TERM BID).
ZVOBGO ADDED THAT THE ZIMBABWEAN DYNAMIC WAS DIFFERENT,

CONFIDENTIAL

CONFIDENTIAL PTQ4349

PAGE 01 HARARE 02594 02 OF 03 041303Z
ACTION AF-00

INFO LOG-00 NP-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 COME-00 INL-00 DODE-00
DOTE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 FAAE-00 FBIE-00 VC-00
TEDE-00 INR-00 LAB-01 VCE-00 DCP-01 NSAE-00 IRM-00
SSO-00 SS-00 TRSE-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02 NFAT-00 SAS-00
/004W
-------------- 1A5F69 041304Z /38
O 041251Z SEP 01
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9626
INFO SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
NSC WASHDC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 03 HARARE 002594

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF, AF/RA, AND AF/S

LONDON FOR GURNEY

PARIS FOR NEARY

NSC FOR SENIOR DIRECTOR FRAZER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/03/06
TAGS: PREL PGOV EFIN PINR ZI
SUBJECT: EDDISON ZVOBGO ON SANCTIONS, PRESIDENTIAL
CANDIDATES, AND ZANU-PF ELECTORAL PROSPECTS

CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02 HARARE 02594 02 OF 03 041303Z
SINCE ZAMBIAN PARTY POLITICS (DESPITE THE RHETORIC OF
REVOLUTION) HAD BEEN STRICTLY CIVILIAN FROM THE
INCEPTION, WHILE ZANU-PF HAD HATCHED FROM A ZIPRA/ZANLA
CANNON BALL. ZVOBGO NOTED THAT THE POLITBURO, WHICH IS
COMPOSED ENTIRELY OF PRESIDENTIAL APPOINTEES, HOLDS THE
REAL POWER IN ZANU-PF. PROSPECTS FOR AN INTRA-PARTY
REVOLT AGAINST MUGABE ARE THUS VERY SMALL, ZVOBGO
STATED, EVEN THOUGH EVERYONE REALIZES THAT ZANU-PF'S
ELECTORAL PROSPECTS WOULD BE ENORMOUSLY ENHANCED IF
MUGABE WOULD STEP DOWN.

--------------
ZANU CAN'T WIN, NO MATTER WHAT
--------------


7. (C) AT DCM'S REQUEST, ZVOBGO PROVIDED HIS ANALYSIS
OF HOW THE 2002 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS WILL UNFOLD. HE
NOTED THAT THE APPROXIMATE HALVING OF THE 120 ELECTED
PARLIAMENTARY SEATS BETWEEN ZANU-PF AND MDC IN THE 2000
ELECTIONS INDICATED THAT THE PARTIES HAVE ROUGHLY EQUAL
SUPPORT COUNTRYWIDE. HOWEVER, TURNOUT IN URBAN AREAS IS
ALWAYS HIGHER, AND THE MDC'S LOCK ON THE TOWNS GIVES
THEM A SIGNIFICANT ADVANTAGE. TURNOUT WOULD DETERMINE
THE PRESIDENTIAL CONTEST, HE CONCLUDED.


8. (C) ZVOBGO PREDICTED THAT THE NATIONAL TURNOUT IN
2002 WOULD BE SECOND ONLY TO THE FIRST POST-UDI
ELECTIONS IN 1980. THE MDC WAS "BOUND TO CLEAN UP" IN
URBAN AREAS FROM MUTARE IN THE EAST TO PLUMTREE IN THE
WEST. ZVOBGO SAID THAT AS MANY AS 80 PERCENT OF
REGISTERED URBAN VOTERS WOULD TURN OUT. ZANU-PF HAS
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 03 HARARE 02594 02 OF 03 041303Z
BEEN UNABLE TO DEMONSTRATE TO THESE VOTERS WHY ZANU RE-
ELECTION WOULD BENEFIT THEM. THE GOZ HAS NOTHING TO
OFFER IN TERMS OF EMPLOYMENT, STABLE PRICES FOR FOOD
STAPLES, AND OTHER URBAN CONCERNS. TOWN-DWELLERS, HE
CONTINUED, ARE NOT INTERESTED IN FARMLAND EVEN IF IT IS
OFFERED GRATIS. HE SAID THAT URBAN DISLIKE OF MUGABE
HAS FESTERED INTO HATRED, WHICH WOULD BE VENTED AT THE
POLLS.


9. (C) ZVOBGO AGREED THAT ZANU-PF RETAINS CONSIDERABLE
STRENGTH IN RURAL AREAS. HOWEVER, ELECTIONS IN MARCH
WOULD COINCIDE WITH RAINS, POLLING STATIONS LOCATED FAR
FROM MOST HABITATIONS, UNPAVED COUNTRY ROADS IN A
DEPLORABLE STATE DUE TO A LACK OF MAINTENANCE IN 2001,
AND NO AGRICULTURAL INPUTS FOR THOSE RESETTLED IN THE
FAST TRACK PROGRAM, HALFWAY THROUGH THE GROWING SEASON.
(HE ADDED THAT EVEN IF THE GOZ HAD THE MONEY FOR INPUTS,
IT HAD NO WORKABLE MECHANISM FOR DISTRIBUTING THEM.)
ZVOBGO PREDICTED A RURAL TURNOUT OF BETWEEN 30 AND 40
PERCENT, AND NO MORE THAN 40 PERCENT EVEN IF ZANU-PF
PULLS OUT ALL THE STOPS. (IN THE JUNE 2000
PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS, ONLY 11 RURAL CONSTITUENCIES
TOPPED 50 PERCENT TURNOUT, AND SOME OF THESE WERE NOT IN
ZANU-PF AREAS.)


10. (C) HE NOTED THAT RECENT BY-ELECTIONS HAVE
INDICATED ERODING ZANU-PF SUPPORT IN RURAL
CONSTITUENCIES, WITH MDC PULLING DOWN 25-30 PERCENT OF
THE VOTE. THE MATHEMATICAL OUTCOME OF ALL THIS WAS
CLEAR. MASSIVE URBAN TURNOUT, LIGHT RURAL TURNOUT, AND
GROWING MDC SUPPORT IN SOME RURAL AREAS WOULD INEVITABLY
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 04 HARARE 02594 02 OF 03 041303Z
TIP THE SCALES IN THE MDC'S FAVOR. ZVOBGO CONCLUDED
THAT AT THIS POINT, "THERE IS PROBABLY NOTHING ZANU CAN
DO TO TURN AROUND THE VOTE."

--------------
PARTING SHOTS
--------------


11. (C) TO DCM'S QUERY ABOUT HIS VIEWS ON HOW WELL MDC
WOULD PERFORM IN THE EXECUTIVE ROLE, ZVOBGO WAS
DISMISSIVE. HE SAID THAT HE WAS WELL ACQUAINTED WITH
TSVANGIRAI, WHO SPOKE TO HIM ON A DAILY BASIS. HE

SIPDIS
OBSERVED THAT WHILE TSVANGIRAI IS "INTENSE AND
PASSIONATE", HE WAS ALSO RATHER "SHALLOW AND IMMATURE."
IN ZVOBGO'S VIEW, TSVANGIRAI'S LACK OF BROAD-BASED
EDUCATION IS A CRITICAL SHORTCOMING. ZVOBGO SAID THAT
IN HIS PUBLIC STATEMENTS, TSVANGARAI SHOWS LITTLE
APPRECIATION FOR THE DEPTH OF ZIMBABWE'S PROBLEMS AND
THE CHALLENGES THAT WOULD CONFRONT TSVANGIRAI, SHOULD HE
BE ELECTED PRESIDENT. HE ADDED THAT TSVANGIRAI'S
ELECTION WOULD BE BY DEFAULT AND SIGNAL A REJECTION OF
MUGABE RATHER THAN A STRONG PREFERENCE FOR TSVANGIRAI.
ZVOBGO CONCLUDED THAT IT SEEMS THAT ZANU-PF IS BOUND BY

CONFIDENTIAL

CONFIDENTIAL PTQ4350

PAGE 01 HARARE 02594 03 OF 03 041304Z
ACTION AF-00

INFO LOG-00 NP-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 COME-00 INL-00 DODE-00
DOTE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 FAAE-00 FBIE-00 VC-00
TEDE-00 INR-00 LAB-01 VCE-00 DCP-01 NSAE-00 IRM-00
SSO-00 SS-00 TRSE-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02 NFAT-00 SAS-00
/004W
-------------- 1A5F73 041304Z /38
O 041251Z SEP 01
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9627
INFO SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
NSC WASHDC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 03 HARARE 002594

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF, AF/RA, AND AF/S

LONDON FOR GURNEY

PARIS FOR NEARY

NSC FOR SENIOR DIRECTOR FRAZER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/03/06
TAGS: PREL PGOV EFIN PINR ZI
SUBJECT: EDDISON ZVOBGO ON SANCTIONS, PRESIDENTIAL
CANDIDATES, AND ZANU-PF ELECTORAL PROSPECTS

CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02 HARARE 02594 03 OF 03 041304Z
A SUICIDE PACT. HE FOUND IT VERY FRUSTRATING.


12. (C) IN RESPONSE TO POLOFF'S QUERY ON WHAT VOTERS
ARE THINKING IN THE PIVOTAL PROVINCE OF MASVINGO, ZVOBGO
ANSWERED THAT HE HAD ALREADY HELD FIVE OF TWENTY-FIVE
SCHEDULED CONSTITUENCY MEETINGS. MANY OF HIS RURAL
SUPPORTERS WERE TELLING HIM THAT WHILE THEY STILL PREFER
ZANU, THEY NO LONGER WANT AND WILL NOT VOTE FOR MUGABE.
THEY WERE ASKING ZVOBGO IF THEY SHOULD VOTE AT ALL,
WHICH HE TOOK TO MEAN THAT SHOULD THEY VOTE, IT WOULD BE
FOR THE MDC. ZVOBGO DECLINED TO ANSWER A FINAL QUESTION
ON WHETHER OR NOT MUGABE WOULD ACCEPT THE OUTCOME OF A
VOTE THAT, IN ZVOBGO'S OWN ANALYSIS, IS CERTAIN TO GO
AGAINST THE INCUMBENT.

--------------
COMMENT
--------------


13. (C) IF ZVOBGO'S ANALYSIS IS ANYWHERE NEAR THE MARK,
IT WOULD APPEAR THAT RESTRICTED VOTER EDUCATION, ZANU-PF
INTIMIDATION, AND OTHER CHICANERY MIGHT NOT BE ENOUGH TO
TURN THE TIDE. ZVOBGO'S PROJECTION OF A MASSIVE URBAN
TURNOUT OVERWHELMING A MODEST AND MIXED RURAL TURNOUT --
WITH MUGABE'S PERSONAL UNPOPULARITY THE MAJOR ISSUE --
WOULD INDICATE (IF ACCURATE) THAT THE PIVOT-POINT WILL
COME THE DAY AFTER THE VOTE IS TALLIED, AND NOT IN THE
RUN-UP TO ELECTIONS. ZVOBGO'S POINTED QUESTIONS ON HOW
THE USG (AND PRESUMABLY MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WORLD)
MIGHT REACT SHOULD MUGABE REFUSE TO ACCEPT A VOTE THAT
OUSTS HIM HIGHLIGHTS THIS AS A SCENARIO THAT ZVOBGO SEES
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 03 HARARE 02594 03 OF 03 041304Z
AS LIKELY. HE SEEMED TO ASSUME THAT ZDERA SANCTIONS (OR
OTHERS) WOULD BE HELD IN RESERVE FOR THAT MOMENT.


14. (C) GIVEN HIS ANTI-MUGABE VIEWS, WE DOUBT THAT
ZVOBGO HAS MUCH ACCESS TO MUGABE, ALTHOUGH HE PROBABLY
MAINTAINS LINKS WITH THE INNER CIRCLE. HE IS AN
INTERESTING INTERLOCUTOR WHO MAY BE ABLE TO PASS ALONG
OUR MESSAGES. ALTHOUGH MENTALLY ACUTE, ZVOBGO APPEARED
PHYSICALLY FRAIL AND TIRED.

ROTH

CONFIDENTIAL

>