EDDISON ZVOBGO ON SANCTIONS, PRESIDENTIAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 002594 SIPDIS STATE FOR AF, AF/RA, AND AF/S LONDON FOR GURNEY PARIS FOR NEARY NSC FOR SENIOR DIRECTOR FRAZER E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/03/06 TAGS: PREL PGOV EFIN PINR ZI SUBJECT: EDDISON ZVOBGO ON SANCTIONS, PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES, AND ZANU-PF ELECTORAL PROSPECTS CLASSIFIED BY DCM REWHITEHEAD DUE TO 1.5 (B0 AND (D). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. ON AUGUST 30, DCM AND POLOFF MET WITH EDDISON ZVOBGO, ZANU-PF KINGPIN FROM MASVINGO AND ONE OF THE MOST PROMINENT ANTI-MUGABE MEMBERS OF ZANU-PF. ZVOBGO QUIZZED US ABOUT POSSIBLE U.S. SANCTIONS THAT MIGHT BE LEVIED AGAINST MUGABE/ZIMBABWE/ZANU-PF IN THE WAKE OF FAILED 2002 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS. HE WAS FIRM THAT MUGABE WILL STAND AS THE ZANU-PF CANDIDATE BUT STATED UNEQUIVOCALLY THAT THE MDC'S TSVANGIRAI WOULD WIN A HEAD-TO-HEAD CONTEST WITH MUGABE DESPITE ZANU-PF EFFORTS TO RIG THE GAME. ZVOBGO WAS DISMISSIVE OF TSVANGIRAI'S PRESIDENTIAL POTENTIAL, CHARACTERIZING THE SIPDIS MDC LEADER AS SHALLOW AND UNAWARE OF THE ENORMITY OF THE CHALLENGES AHEAD. ZVOBGO HEDGED ON WHETHER MUGABE WILL RESPECT THE OUTCOME OF A VOTE THAT, FOR WHATEVER REASON, DOES NOT GO HIS WAY. END SUMMARY. -------------- THE CROSS EXAMINATION -------------- ¶2. (C) ZVOBGO, A LONG-TIME ZANU-PF INSIDER WHOM MUGABE PURGED FROM THE POLITBURO IN 2000 FOR OPPOSING MUGABE'S HARDBALL POLICIES, IS ALSO A SEASONED MP AND A LAWYER OF CONSIDERABLE REPUTE. HE LAUNCHED AT ONCE INTO A CROSS- EXAMINATION, INQUIRING EXACTLY WHAT OUTCOMES THE U.S. SEEKS IN ZIMBABWE. DCM REPLIED THAT RESTORATION OF THE RULE OF LAW, AN END TO POLITICAL VIOLENCE AND HUMAN RIGHTS VIOLATIONS, RATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICIES, AND RESPECT FOR THE RESULTS OF 2002 PRESIDENTIAL POLLS (THAT CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 02594 01 OF 03 041303Z ARE NOT FATALLY FLAWED) ARE THE BASIC BENCHMARKS. ZVOBGO QUERIED ABOUT SECRETARY POWELL'S LIKELY REACTION IN THE "UNLIKELY" EVENT OF AN ELECTION THAT ZANU-PF LOSES BUT -- DESPITE OBSERVER CORROBORATION THAT THE ELECTION WAS VALID -- DOES NOT ACCEPT. DCM RESPONDED THAT THE REACTION THROUGHOUT THE USG WOULD BE SHARPLY NEGATIVE. THIS WOULD TRIGGER A DOWNTURN IN THE BILATERAL RELATIONSHIP. ¶3. (C) ASSUMING ZDERA IS EVENTUALLY ENACTED INTO LAW, ZVOBGO ASKED, WHAT SANCTIONS, BESIDES THOSE MENTIONED IN THE SENATE TEXT, WOULD THE USG IMPOSE? DCM POINTED OUT THAT THE INCENTIVES LISTED IN THE SENATE VERSION (WHICH ZVOBGO HAD STUDIED) IN FACT REFLECT THE STATUS QUO. ANY POSSIBLE PUNITIVE SANCTIONS ASIDE, ZIMBABWE STANDS TO PROFIT ENORMOUSLY FROM USG SUPPORT ON THE INCENTIVES SECTION OF THE ACT. DCM ASKED ZVOBGO WHAT SANCTIONS HE THOUGHT WOULD BE EFFECTIVE IN MOVING MUGABE AND HIS ENTOURAGE AWAY FROM PRESENT POLICIES. ¶4. (C) ZVOBGO REPLIED THAT HE DID NOT HAVE A GOOD ANSWER. HOWEVER, IT WAS CLEAR THAT BLANKET ECONOMIC SANCTIONS WOULD BE DEVASTATING FOR ZIMBABWE AND ITS PEOPLE. DCM RESPONDED THAT SUCH MEASURES ARE NOT PRESENTLY CONTEMPLATED. ZVOBGO OBSERVED THAT FOREIGN MINISTER MUDENGE HAS THREATENED A STATE OF EMERGENCY IF ZDERA IS ENACTED, AT WHICH TIME ZVOBGO ANTICIPATES THE GOZ WILL REIMPOSE A COMMAND AND CONTROL ECONOMY. HE NOTED THAT ZIMBABWE WOULD SOON HAVE ARREARS OF USD 1 BILLION IN DEBT SERVICE. HE ASKED IF THE BANK AND FUND WERE PREPARED TO WATCH ZIMBABWE'S ECONOMY COLLAPSE. DCM CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 02594 01 OF 03 041303Z OBSERVED THAT WHILE HE WAS UNABLE TO SPEAK FOR THE IFI'S, IT WAS DIFFICULT TO CONTEMPLATE THESE INSTITUTIONS, OR OTHERS, RUSHING TO ASSIST ZIMBABWE IN THE WAKE OF FATALLY FLAWED ELECTIONS AND CONTINUED SELF- DESTRUCTIVE ECONOMIC POLICIES. -------------- MUGABE WILL STAND -------------- ¶5. (C) ZVOBGO CONFIRMED THAT, BARRING A "MIRACLE", MUGABE WILL BE ZANU-PF'S CANDIDATE IN 2002. HE DID NOT THINK THAT THE SPECIAL ZANU-PF CONGRESS IN NOVEMBER COULD DO ANYTHING ABOUT THIS, SINCE MUGABE HAS SHOWN NO INDICATION THAT HE PLANS TO STEP DOWN. ZVOBGO NOTED BITTERLY THAT NO ONE IN MUGABE'S INNER CIRCLE OF "CRONIES AND BOOTLICKERS" HAD THE GUTS TO TELL MUGABE THAT IT IS TIME TO GO. ¶6. (C) "I'M FULL OF ADMIRATION FOR THE ZAMBIANS FOR WHAT THEY'VE JUST DONE," HE SAID (REFERRING TO THE REJECTION OF PRESIDENT CHILUBA'S THIRD-TERM BID). ZVOBGO ADDED THAT THE ZIMBABWEAN DYNAMIC WAS DIFFERENT, CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ4349 PAGE 01 HARARE 02594 02 OF 03 041303Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 COME-00 INL-00 DODE-00 DOTE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 FAAE-00 FBIE-00 VC-00 TEDE-00 INR-00 LAB-01 VCE-00 DCP-01 NSAE-00 IRM-00 SSO-00 SS-00 TRSE-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /004W -------------- 1A5F69 041304Z /38 O 041251Z SEP 01 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9626 INFO SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY NSC WASHDC C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 03 HARARE 002594 SIPDIS STATE FOR AF, AF/RA, AND AF/S LONDON FOR GURNEY PARIS FOR NEARY NSC FOR SENIOR DIRECTOR FRAZER E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/03/06 TAGS: PREL PGOV EFIN PINR ZI SUBJECT: EDDISON ZVOBGO ON SANCTIONS, PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES, AND ZANU-PF ELECTORAL PROSPECTS CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 02594 02 OF 03 041303Z SINCE ZAMBIAN PARTY POLITICS (DESPITE THE RHETORIC OF REVOLUTION) HAD BEEN STRICTLY CIVILIAN FROM THE INCEPTION, WHILE ZANU-PF HAD HATCHED FROM A ZIPRA/ZANLA CANNON BALL. ZVOBGO NOTED THAT THE POLITBURO, WHICH IS COMPOSED ENTIRELY OF PRESIDENTIAL APPOINTEES, HOLDS THE REAL POWER IN ZANU-PF. PROSPECTS FOR AN INTRA-PARTY REVOLT AGAINST MUGABE ARE THUS VERY SMALL, ZVOBGO STATED, EVEN THOUGH EVERYONE REALIZES THAT ZANU-PF'S ELECTORAL PROSPECTS WOULD BE ENORMOUSLY ENHANCED IF MUGABE WOULD STEP DOWN. -------------- ZANU CAN'T WIN, NO MATTER WHAT -------------- ¶7. (C) AT DCM'S REQUEST, ZVOBGO PROVIDED HIS ANALYSIS OF HOW THE 2002 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS WILL UNFOLD. HE NOTED THAT THE APPROXIMATE HALVING OF THE 120 ELECTED PARLIAMENTARY SEATS BETWEEN ZANU-PF AND MDC IN THE 2000 ELECTIONS INDICATED THAT THE PARTIES HAVE ROUGHLY EQUAL SUPPORT COUNTRYWIDE. HOWEVER, TURNOUT IN URBAN AREAS IS ALWAYS HIGHER, AND THE MDC'S LOCK ON THE TOWNS GIVES THEM A SIGNIFICANT ADVANTAGE. TURNOUT WOULD DETERMINE THE PRESIDENTIAL CONTEST, HE CONCLUDED. ¶8. (C) ZVOBGO PREDICTED THAT THE NATIONAL TURNOUT IN 2002 WOULD BE SECOND ONLY TO THE FIRST POST-UDI ELECTIONS IN 1980. THE MDC WAS "BOUND TO CLEAN UP" IN URBAN AREAS FROM MUTARE IN THE EAST TO PLUMTREE IN THE WEST. ZVOBGO SAID THAT AS MANY AS 80 PERCENT OF REGISTERED URBAN VOTERS WOULD TURN OUT. ZANU-PF HAS CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 02594 02 OF 03 041303Z BEEN UNABLE TO DEMONSTRATE TO THESE VOTERS WHY ZANU RE- ELECTION WOULD BENEFIT THEM. THE GOZ HAS NOTHING TO OFFER IN TERMS OF EMPLOYMENT, STABLE PRICES FOR FOOD STAPLES, AND OTHER URBAN CONCERNS. TOWN-DWELLERS, HE CONTINUED, ARE NOT INTERESTED IN FARMLAND EVEN IF IT IS OFFERED GRATIS. HE SAID THAT URBAN DISLIKE OF MUGABE HAS FESTERED INTO HATRED, WHICH WOULD BE VENTED AT THE POLLS. ¶9. (C) ZVOBGO AGREED THAT ZANU-PF RETAINS CONSIDERABLE STRENGTH IN RURAL AREAS. HOWEVER, ELECTIONS IN MARCH WOULD COINCIDE WITH RAINS, POLLING STATIONS LOCATED FAR FROM MOST HABITATIONS, UNPAVED COUNTRY ROADS IN A DEPLORABLE STATE DUE TO A LACK OF MAINTENANCE IN 2001, AND NO AGRICULTURAL INPUTS FOR THOSE RESETTLED IN THE FAST TRACK PROGRAM, HALFWAY THROUGH THE GROWING SEASON. (HE ADDED THAT EVEN IF THE GOZ HAD THE MONEY FOR INPUTS, IT HAD NO WORKABLE MECHANISM FOR DISTRIBUTING THEM.) ZVOBGO PREDICTED A RURAL TURNOUT OF BETWEEN 30 AND 40 PERCENT, AND NO MORE THAN 40 PERCENT EVEN IF ZANU-PF PULLS OUT ALL THE STOPS. (IN THE JUNE 2000 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS, ONLY 11 RURAL CONSTITUENCIES TOPPED 50 PERCENT TURNOUT, AND SOME OF THESE WERE NOT IN ZANU-PF AREAS.) ¶10. (C) HE NOTED THAT RECENT BY-ELECTIONS HAVE INDICATED ERODING ZANU-PF SUPPORT IN RURAL CONSTITUENCIES, WITH MDC PULLING DOWN 25-30 PERCENT OF THE VOTE. THE MATHEMATICAL OUTCOME OF ALL THIS WAS CLEAR. MASSIVE URBAN TURNOUT, LIGHT RURAL TURNOUT, AND GROWING MDC SUPPORT IN SOME RURAL AREAS WOULD INEVITABLY CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 02594 02 OF 03 041303Z TIP THE SCALES IN THE MDC'S FAVOR. ZVOBGO CONCLUDED THAT AT THIS POINT, "THERE IS PROBABLY NOTHING ZANU CAN DO TO TURN AROUND THE VOTE." -------------- PARTING SHOTS -------------- ¶11. (C) TO DCM'S QUERY ABOUT HIS VIEWS ON HOW WELL MDC WOULD PERFORM IN THE EXECUTIVE ROLE, ZVOBGO WAS DISMISSIVE. HE SAID THAT HE WAS WELL ACQUAINTED WITH TSVANGIRAI, WHO SPOKE TO HIM ON A DAILY BASIS. HE SIPDIS OBSERVED THAT WHILE TSVANGIRAI IS "INTENSE AND PASSIONATE", HE WAS ALSO RATHER "SHALLOW AND IMMATURE." IN ZVOBGO'S VIEW, TSVANGIRAI'S LACK OF BROAD-BASED EDUCATION IS A CRITICAL SHORTCOMING. ZVOBGO SAID THAT IN HIS PUBLIC STATEMENTS, TSVANGARAI SHOWS LITTLE APPRECIATION FOR THE DEPTH OF ZIMBABWE'S PROBLEMS AND THE CHALLENGES THAT WOULD CONFRONT TSVANGIRAI, SHOULD HE BE ELECTED PRESIDENT. HE ADDED THAT TSVANGIRAI'S ELECTION WOULD BE BY DEFAULT AND SIGNAL A REJECTION OF MUGABE RATHER THAN A STRONG PREFERENCE FOR TSVANGIRAI. ZVOBGO CONCLUDED THAT IT SEEMS THAT ZANU-PF IS BOUND BY CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ4350 PAGE 01 HARARE 02594 03 OF 03 041304Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 COME-00 INL-00 DODE-00 DOTE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 FAAE-00 FBIE-00 VC-00 TEDE-00 INR-00 LAB-01 VCE-00 DCP-01 NSAE-00 IRM-00 SSO-00 SS-00 TRSE-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /004W -------------- 1A5F73 041304Z /38 O 041251Z SEP 01 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9627 INFO SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY NSC WASHDC C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 03 HARARE 002594 SIPDIS STATE FOR AF, AF/RA, AND AF/S LONDON FOR GURNEY PARIS FOR NEARY NSC FOR SENIOR DIRECTOR FRAZER E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/03/06 TAGS: PREL PGOV EFIN PINR ZI SUBJECT: EDDISON ZVOBGO ON SANCTIONS, PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES, AND ZANU-PF ELECTORAL PROSPECTS CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 02594 03 OF 03 041304Z A SUICIDE PACT. HE FOUND IT VERY FRUSTRATING. ¶12. (C) IN RESPONSE TO POLOFF'S QUERY ON WHAT VOTERS ARE THINKING IN THE PIVOTAL PROVINCE OF MASVINGO, ZVOBGO ANSWERED THAT HE HAD ALREADY HELD FIVE OF TWENTY-FIVE SCHEDULED CONSTITUENCY MEETINGS. MANY OF HIS RURAL SUPPORTERS WERE TELLING HIM THAT WHILE THEY STILL PREFER ZANU, THEY NO LONGER WANT AND WILL NOT VOTE FOR MUGABE. THEY WERE ASKING ZVOBGO IF THEY SHOULD VOTE AT ALL, WHICH HE TOOK TO MEAN THAT SHOULD THEY VOTE, IT WOULD BE FOR THE MDC. ZVOBGO DECLINED TO ANSWER A FINAL QUESTION ON WHETHER OR NOT MUGABE WOULD ACCEPT THE OUTCOME OF A VOTE THAT, IN ZVOBGO'S OWN ANALYSIS, IS CERTAIN TO GO AGAINST THE INCUMBENT. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶13. (C) IF ZVOBGO'S ANALYSIS IS ANYWHERE NEAR THE MARK, IT WOULD APPEAR THAT RESTRICTED VOTER EDUCATION, ZANU-PF INTIMIDATION, AND OTHER CHICANERY MIGHT NOT BE ENOUGH TO TURN THE TIDE. ZVOBGO'S PROJECTION OF A MASSIVE URBAN TURNOUT OVERWHELMING A MODEST AND MIXED RURAL TURNOUT -- WITH MUGABE'S PERSONAL UNPOPULARITY THE MAJOR ISSUE -- WOULD INDICATE (IF ACCURATE) THAT THE PIVOT-POINT WILL COME THE DAY AFTER THE VOTE IS TALLIED, AND NOT IN THE RUN-UP TO ELECTIONS. ZVOBGO'S POINTED QUESTIONS ON HOW THE USG (AND PRESUMABLY MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WORLD) MIGHT REACT SHOULD MUGABE REFUSE TO ACCEPT A VOTE THAT OUSTS HIM HIGHLIGHTS THIS AS A SCENARIO THAT ZVOBGO SEES CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 02594 03 OF 03 041304Z AS LIKELY. HE SEEMED TO ASSUME THAT ZDERA SANCTIONS (OR OTHERS) WOULD BE HELD IN RESERVE FOR THAT MOMENT. ¶14. (C) GIVEN HIS ANTI-MUGABE VIEWS, WE DOUBT THAT ZVOBGO HAS MUCH ACCESS TO MUGABE, ALTHOUGH HE PROBABLY MAINTAINS LINKS WITH THE INNER CIRCLE. HE IS AN INTERESTING INTERLOCUTOR WHO MAY BE ABLE TO PASS ALONG OUR MESSAGES. ALTHOUGH MENTALLY ACUTE, ZVOBGO APPEARED PHYSICALLY FRAIL AND TIRED. ROTH CONFIDENTIAL >