GLEANINGS FROM THE DIPLOMATIC HUSTINGS -- IT'S

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 002499 SIPDIS STATE FOR AF AND AF/S PARIS FOR WILLIAMS-MANIGAULT LONDON FOR NEARY USEU FOR POLCOUNS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/24/03 TAGS: PREL ZI SUBJECT: GLEANINGS FROM THE DIPLOMATIC HUSTINGS -- IT'S THE ECONOMY, STUPID, AS MUCH AS THE POLITICS CLASSIFIED BY DCM REWHITEHEAD DUE TO 1.5 (B) AND (D). ¶1. SUMMARY AND ACTION REQUEST. INITIAL COURTESY CALLS CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 02499 01 OF 02 240558Z ON COUNTERPARTS IN THE FRENCH AND BELGIAN EMBASSIES HAVE REVEALED DIFFERENCES WITHIN THE EU RANKS OVER HOW TO PROCEED ON ARTICLE 8 NEGOTIATIONS WITH ZIMBABWE. THE AUSTRALIANS SAY THAT THE GOZ HAS NOT YET INDICATED WHO WILL BE ON THE ZIMBABWEAN DELEGATION TO THE CHOGM IN BRISBANE. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE VARYING INTERPRETATIONS OF THE GRAVITY OF THE POLITICAL CRISIS, EVERYONE AGREES THAT THE ECONOMY IS A MAJOR DISASTER IN THE MAKING. WE WOULD APPRECIATE USEU VIEWS ON POSSIBLE DIFFERENCES WITHINT THE EU ON ARTICLE 8 CONSULTATIONS ON ZIMBABWE. END SUMMARY. -------------- FRANCE: IT COULD BE WORSE -------------- ¶2. (C) COUNSELOR OF THE FRENCH EMBASSY JEROME SAUTIER WAS BY FAR THE MOST RELAXED ABOUT THE STATE OF PLAY IN ZIMBABWE. HE NOTED THAT THE POLITICAL SITUATION HAD GONE DOWNHILL SINCE HIS ARRIVAL TWO YEARS EARLIER BUT SPECULATED THAT ZIMBABWE COULD STILL MAKE IT THROUGH THE 2002 ELECTIONS WITHOUT MAJOR DAMAGE. HE OBSERVED THAT ON THE AFRICAN CONTINUUM, ZIMBABWE RANKS SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE IN TERMS OF POLITICAL VIOLENCE. HE EXPRESSED GREATER CONCERN FOR THE RAPID ECONOMIC DETERIORATION, WHICH HE FEARED COULD BE IRREVERSIBLE. -------------- BELGIUM: ESCHEWING THE HARD LINE -------------- CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 02499 01 OF 02 240558Z ¶3. (C) BELGIAN COUNSELOR ALEXIS DE CROMBRUGGHE SAID THAT HE (AND HIS ABSENT AMBASSADOR) HAD TRIED TO TAKE A PRAGMATIC VIEW IN DEALING WITH THE GOVERNMENT OF THIS "VERY TROUBLED COUNTRY." HE SAID THAT HE WAS CONCERNED THAT THE EU "ULTIMATUM" ON ARTICLE 8 CONSULTATIONS WITH ZIMBABWE COULD BACKFIRE, WITH THE ZIMBABWEANS HARDENING THEIR POSITION, AGGRAVATING AN ALREADY COMPLICATED DYNAMIC. HE CITED SEVERAL TECHNICAL MISSTEPS IN PREPARATION OF THE "ULTIMATUM" AND NOTED THAT THERE WERE CLEAR DIFFERENCES AMONG THE EU DIPLOMATIC PRESENCE IN HARARE ON HOW BEST TO PROCEED. DE CROMBRUGGHE IDENTIFIED GOZ FLEXIBILITY ON EU ELECTION MONITORING AS A KEY INDICATOR TO PROGRESS IN EU/ZIMBABWE CONSULTATIONS. ¶4. (C) DE CROMBRUGGHE SAID THAT HE DOES NOT FULLY SHARE THE VIEWS OF SEVERAL EU CHIEFS OF MISSION THAT THE MDC WILL SWEEP TO VICTORY IN FREE AND FAIR ELECTIONS. THE OUTCOME OF THE PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS, AND THE RECENT ZANU-PF WINS IN BY-ELECTIONS, INDICATE THAT ZANU-PF STILL ENJOYS SIGNIFICANT SUPPORT, ESPECIALLY IN ITS TRADITIONAL STRONGHOLD OF MASHONALAND. HE PREDICTED THAT THE PRESIDENTIAL VOTE COULD BE A CLOSE ONE, PERHAPS THE LEAST IDEAL OUTCOME UNDER CURRENT CIRCUMSTANCES. DCM NOTED THAT THE DECLINING ECONOMY WILL CERTAINLY ERODE ZANU SUPPORT AND POINTED OUT "FREE AND FAIR" IS THE OPERATIVE PHRASE. CONTINUED ZANU-PF INTIMIDATION COUPLED WITH CONCERTED ATTACKS ON JUDICIAL AND ELECTORAL INSTITUTIONS RISKS MUDDYING THE WATER TO THE DEGREE THAT EVEN ELECTORAL VICTORIES IN LIKELY ZANU-PF STRONGHOLDS COULD BE CALLED INTO QUESTION. DE CROMBRUGGHE FULLY CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 02499 01 OF 02 240558Z AGREED THAT THE TIDE OF THE ECONOMY IS INCREASINGLY RUNNING AGAINST THE MUGABE GOVERNMENT. ¶5. (C) IN A RELATED DEVELOPMENT, ON AUGUST 22 EU DIPLOMAT ALEX KREMER TOLD POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF THAT THERE HAS BEEN NO PROGRESS ON THE ARTICLE 8 DIALOGUE WITH ZIMBABWE SINCE THE GENERAL AFFAIRS COUNCIL ISSUED ITS ULTIMATUM IN LATE JUNE. ACCORDING TO KREMER, THE GAC WOULD NOT DECIDE ON NEXT STEPS -- INCLUDING A POSSIBLE MOVE TO ARTICLE 96 DISCUSSIONS -- UNTIL ITS NEXT GATHERING IN EARLY OCTOBER. THAT SAID, THE EU WORKING GROUP ON AFRICA PLANNED TO MEET IN EARLY SEPTEMBER AND WOULD MAKE RECOMMENDATIONS THAT THE GAC WOULD LIKELY ABIDE BY. -------------- AUSTRALIA: MUGABE WELCOME TO COME -------------- ¶6. (C) THE NUMBER-TWO FOR AUSTRALIA, DON FOLEY, AND POLITICAL OFFICER JENNY DEE SAID THAT THE GOZ HAS NOT CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTO8710 PAGE 01 HARARE 02499 02 OF 02 240558Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 USNW-00 DODE-00 DS-00 EUR-00 VC-00 TEDE-00 INR-00 LAB-01 VCE-00 NSAE-00 IRM-00 EPAE-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /003W -------------- 15E2E8 240558Z /38 P 240550Z AUG 01 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9541 USEU BRUSSELS PRIORITY INFO SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS AMEMBASSY PARIS C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 002499 SIPDIS STATE FOR AF AND AF/S PARIS FOR WILLIAMS-MANIGAULT LONDON FOR NEARY USEU FOR POLCOUNS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/24/03 TAGS: PREL ZI SUBJECT: GLEANINGS FROM THE DIPLOMATIC HUSTINGS -- IT'S THE ECONOMY, STUPID, AS MUCH AS THE POLITICS YET INDICATED WHO WILL BE ON OR HEAD THE ZIMBABWEAN DELEGATION TO THE CHOGM IN BRISBANE, ALTHOUGH FOLEY ASSUMES MUGABE WILL GO. FOLEY CITED SEVERAL RECENT CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 02499 02 OF 02 240558Z ARTICLES IN THE GOVERNMENT PRESS THAT CRITICIZED VARIOUS "RACIST" AUSTRALIAN POLITICIANS FOR CALLING ON CANBERRA TO BLOCK MUGABE'S PARTICIPATION. FOLEY SAID THAT IT IS THE AUSTRALIAN FOREIGN MINISTER'S VIEW THAT MUGABE SHOULD ATTEND IF HE SO CHOOSES. ¶6. (C) DEE SAID THAT POSSIBLE COMMONWEALTH ELECTION MONITORING WAS "IN THE BACK OF OUR MINDS" BUT DID NOT EXPECT MUCH MOVEMENT ON THIS FRONT UNTIL AFTER THE CHOGM. SHE SAID THE EIGHT-MEMBER COMMONWEALTH GROUP HAD THUS FAR BEEN UNABLE TO AGREE ON WHAT TOPICS TO DISCUSS -- THE GOZ SEEKS TO LIMIT TALKS TO LAND REFORM -- LET ALONE CONSIDER ELECTION MONITORING. (NOTE: IN A SEPARATE MEETING WITH POLCHIEF, DEE AND BRITISH POLITICAL OFFICER WERE NOT OPTIMISTIC THAT THE SEPTEMBER 6 MEETING IN ABUJA OF THE EIGHT-MEMBER COMMONWEALTH GROUP WOULD PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RESULTS. LINDSAY COMMENTED THE AFRICAN PARTICIPANTS IN ABUJA WOULD PLAY A CRITICAL ROLE BUT EXPRESSED CONCERN THAT FM LAMIDO, WHO HAD TAKEN A SOFTER VIEW OF MUGABE THAN HAS OBASANJO, WOULD BE CHAIRING THE MEETING.) DEE SAID THAT PROJECTING WHERE THE POLITICAL SITUATION WILL LEAD (A STAPLE OF DIPLOMATIC EXCHANGES HERE) IS CRYSTAL BALL GAZING, GIVEN THE VARIABLES. HOWEVER, SHE AND FOLEY EXPRESSED DISMAY AT THE EFFECT OF THE ECONOMIC DOWNTURN ON THE AVERAGE ZIMBABWEAN. -------------- COMMENT -------------- CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 02499 02 OF 02 240558Z ¶8. IN OUR VIEW, IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO SEPARATE BAD POLITICAL DECISIONS FROM ECONOMIC DECLINE IN THE CURRENT CONTEXT, WITH EACH FEEDING THE OTHER. WE CANNOT SAY IF DE CROMBRUGGHE'S COMMENTS ON ARTICLE 8 REFLECT BELGIAN THINKING BUT WOULD APPRECIATE ANY INSIGHTS USEU CAN PROVIDE ON POSSIBLE DIFFERENCES WITHIN THE EU ON THIS ISSUE. ROTH CONFIDENTIAL >