ZIMBABWE REGIME'S ATTITUDE TOWARD ELECTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L HARARE 002470 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/21/11 TAGS: KDEM PGOV PINR ZI SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE REGIME'S ATTITUDE TOWARD ELECTION MONITORS (C-NA1-00977) CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 02470 211601Z REF: STATE 133497 CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL OFFICER TODD FAULK FOR REASONS: 1.5 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (C) BELOW ARE EMBASSY HARARE'S RESPONSES TO REFTEL TASKING QUESTIONS: ¶A. (C) HIGH-LEVEL GOVERNMENT OF ZIMBABWE (GOZ) OFFICIALS HAVE EXPRESSED TO US OVER THE LAST SEVERAL MONTHS THE GOZ'S INTENTION TO PERMIT OFFICIAL GOVERNMENT OBSERVERS OF THE 2002 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION. THIS INCLUDES US, UN, EU, SADC, AND COMMONWEALTH/UK OBSERVERS, ALTHOUGH WE DO NOT EXPECT THE GOZ TO SPECIFICALLY INVITE ANY OBSERVERS, WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SADC. WE DO NOT EXPECT THIS OFFICIAL POSITION TO CHANGE SUBSTANTIALLY, EVEN WITH A FURTHER DETERIORATION OF ZIMBABWE'S RELATIONS WITH THE WEST, BECAUSE THE GOZ VALUES THE STAMP OF LEGITIMACY WESTERN OBSERVERS COULD CONFER ON AN ELECTION OUTCOME. ¶B. (C) ASSUMING THE ZIMBABWE DEMOCRACY AND ECONOMIC RECOVERY ACT (ZDERA) HAS NOT YET PASSED THE US CONGRESS, THE GOZ IS LIKELY TO ALLOW AT LEAST ONE GROUP OF OBSERVERS INTO ZIMBABWE ANYTIME BETWEEN NOW AND THE END OF 2001. WHETHER ADDITIONAL VISITS ARE PERMITTED MAY DEPEND ON THE PASSAGE OF THE ZDERA AS WELL AS THE PUBLICITY AND NATURE OF THE FINDINGS OF THE INITIAL VISIT. WE DEEM IT LIKELY THAT ONE OF THE GOZ'S RESPONSES TO ZDERA PASSAGE, OR THE IMPOSITION OF PERSONAL SANCTIONS TARGETING PRESIDENT MUGABE AND KEY CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 02470 211601Z ADVISORS, WILL BE TO PROHIBIT US-SPONSORED CAMPAIGN OBSERVERS FROM ENTERING ZIMBABWE BEFORE THE ELECTION. (NOTE: THE GOZ IS STILL LIKELY TO ADMIT OFFICIAL USG OBSERVERS INTO ZIMBABWE FOR THE ACTUAL POLLING DAYS THEMSELVES, GIVEN THAT ZIMBABWEAN NATIONAL ELECTIONS HISTORICALLY HAVE BEEN PEACEFUL. END NOTE.) IN ADDITION, IF THE INITIAL GROUP'S, OR SUBSEQUENT GROUPS', FINDINGS ARE NEGATIVE AND WIDELY PUBLICIZED, THE GOZ IS LIKELY TO BAN FUTURE VISITS BY OBSERVERS FROM THE SAME ORGANIZATION. ¶C. (C) CAMPAIGN OBSERVERS, I.E. GROUPS ADMITTED WELL BEFORE THE ELECTION, WILL ENCOUNTER FEWER GOZ OBSTACLES THAN OBSERVERS ADMITTED TO MONITOR THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION ITSELF. ONCE CAMPAIGN OBSERVERS ARE ADMITTED, THEY WILL LIKELY BE PERMITTED TO TRAVEL FREELY ABOUT THE COUNTRY; HOWEVER, CONSTANT SURVEILLANCE BY INTELLIGENCE ORGANIZATIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL OCCUR IF CAMPAIGN OBSERVERS ARE IN COUNTRY IMMEDIATELY BEFORE OR DURING OTHER ELECTIONS, SUCH AS THE BULAWAYO MAYORAL ELECTION AND MAKONI WEST BY- ELECTION SCHEDULED FOR 8-9 SEPTEMBER, AND THE CHIKOMBA BY-ELECTION SCHEDULED FOR 22-23 SEPTEMBER. IF THIS IS THE CASE, CAMPAIGN OBSERVERS ARE MORE LIKELY TO ENCOUNTER OBSTACLES SUCH AS POLICE CORDONS AND "NO-GO" AREAS IN THE ELECTION DISTRICTS, POSSIBLE HARASSMENT BY ZANU-PF SUPPORTERS, AND GOZ REFUSAL TO ACCREDIT OBSERVERS (WHICH WOULD PROHIBIT THEM FROM GOING WITHIN 100 METERS OF ANY POLLING PLACE). ELECTION OBSERVERS DESIGNATED TO OBSERVE THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION WILL LIKELY ENCOUNTER SIGNIFICANT OBSTACLES SUCH AS FREQUENT CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 02470 211601Z CHANGES AND DELIBERATE CONFUSION OVER ACCREDITATION AND OBSERVATION RULES, GOZ REFUSAL TO ACCREDIT UNTIL THE LAST MINUTE, AND HIGH GOVERNMENT FEES. ONCE IN COUNTRY, THEY MAY BE TURNED AWAY AT POLLING PLACES DESPITE ACCREDITATION OR MAY ENCOUNTER HARASSMENT BY ZANU-PF SUPPORTERS. ¶D. (C) WE HAVE NO INDICATION THAT THE MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE (MDC) PLANS TO INFLUENCE THE REPORTING OF CAMPAIGN OBSERVERS OR ELECTION MONITORS, ALTHOUGH IT IS CERTAINLY IN THE PARTY'S INTEREST TO EXAGGERATE REPORTS OF VIOLENCE AND INTIMIDATION. ¶2. (C) COMMENT: ALTHOUGH THE GOZ HAS INFORMED US OF ITS INTENTION TO ALLOW ELECTION OBSERVERS, THERE IS NO UNDERSTANDING WHAT THE TERMS OF REFERENCE OF THESE "OBSERVERS" MIGHT BE NOR WHETHER THE GOZ DRAWS A CLEAR DISTINCTION BETWEEN "OBSERVERS" AND "MONITORS." IN ANY CASE, WE STRONGLY BELIEVE THAT FOR POLICY REASONS WE MUST TEST THE LIMITS THAT THE GOZ AND ZANU-PF MIGHT TRY TO IMPOSE ON OUTSIDE MONITORS AS THE ONLY POTENTIALLY CREDIBLE WAY TO DETERMINE THE DEGREE OF FAIRNESS AND TRANSPARENCY OF THE UPCOMING ELECTION. END COMMENT. ROTH CONFIDENTIAL >