Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
01HARARE2470
2001-08-21 15:56:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Harare
Cable title:
ZIMBABWE REGIME'S ATTITUDE TOWARD ELECTION
how-toThis record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available. 211556Z Aug 01 CONFIDENTIAL PTO2166 PAGE 01 HARARE 02470 211601Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 USNW-00 DINT-00 DODE-00 DOTE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 EUR-00 FAAE-00 FBIE-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 LAB-01 L-00 VCE-00 MMP-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 OIC-02 OIG-03 OMB-01 OPIC-01 CAEX-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 STR-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 LBA-00 PRM-01 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /014W ------------------14B6F1 211602Z /38 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9515 INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
C O N F I D E N T I A L HARARE 002470
SIPDIS
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS
NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/21/11
TAGS: KDEM PGOV PINR ZI
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE REGIME'S ATTITUDE TOWARD ELECTION
MONITORS (C-NA1-00977)
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 02 HARARE 02470 211601Z
REF: STATE 133497
CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL OFFICER TODD FAULK FOR REASONS:
1.5 (B) AND (D).
C O N F I D E N T I A L HARARE 002470
SIPDIS
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS
NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/21/11
TAGS: KDEM PGOV PINR ZI
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE REGIME'S ATTITUDE TOWARD ELECTION
MONITORS (C-NA1-00977)
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 02 HARARE 02470 211601Z
REF: STATE 133497
CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL OFFICER TODD FAULK FOR REASONS:
1.5 (B) AND (D).
1. (C) BELOW ARE EMBASSY HARARE'S RESPONSES TO REFTEL
TASKING QUESTIONS:
A. (C) HIGH-LEVEL GOVERNMENT OF ZIMBABWE (GOZ)
OFFICIALS HAVE EXPRESSED TO US OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
MONTHS THE GOZ'S INTENTION TO PERMIT OFFICIAL GOVERNMENT
OBSERVERS OF THE 2002 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION. THIS
INCLUDES US, UN, EU, SADC, AND COMMONWEALTH/UK
OBSERVERS, ALTHOUGH WE DO NOT EXPECT THE GOZ TO
SPECIFICALLY INVITE ANY OBSERVERS, WITH THE POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION OF SADC. WE DO NOT EXPECT THIS OFFICIAL
POSITION TO CHANGE SUBSTANTIALLY, EVEN WITH A FURTHER
DETERIORATION OF ZIMBABWE'S RELATIONS WITH THE WEST,
BECAUSE THE GOZ VALUES THE STAMP OF LEGITIMACY WESTERN
OBSERVERS COULD CONFER ON AN ELECTION OUTCOME.
B. (C) ASSUMING THE ZIMBABWE DEMOCRACY AND ECONOMIC
RECOVERY ACT (ZDERA) HAS NOT YET PASSED THE US CONGRESS,
THE GOZ IS LIKELY TO ALLOW AT LEAST ONE GROUP OF
OBSERVERS INTO ZIMBABWE ANYTIME BETWEEN NOW AND THE END
OF 2001. WHETHER ADDITIONAL VISITS ARE PERMITTED MAY
DEPEND ON THE PASSAGE OF THE ZDERA AS WELL AS THE
PUBLICITY AND NATURE OF THE FINDINGS OF THE INITIAL
VISIT. WE DEEM IT LIKELY THAT ONE OF THE GOZ'S
RESPONSES TO ZDERA PASSAGE, OR THE IMPOSITION OF
PERSONAL SANCTIONS TARGETING PRESIDENT MUGABE AND KEY
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 03 HARARE 02470 211601Z
ADVISORS, WILL BE TO PROHIBIT US-SPONSORED CAMPAIGN
OBSERVERS FROM ENTERING ZIMBABWE BEFORE THE ELECTION.
(NOTE: THE GOZ IS STILL LIKELY TO ADMIT OFFICIAL USG
OBSERVERS INTO ZIMBABWE FOR THE ACTUAL POLLING DAYS
THEMSELVES, GIVEN THAT ZIMBABWEAN NATIONAL ELECTIONS
HISTORICALLY HAVE BEEN PEACEFUL. END NOTE.) IN
ADDITION, IF THE INITIAL GROUP'S, OR SUBSEQUENT GROUPS',
FINDINGS ARE NEGATIVE AND WIDELY PUBLICIZED, THE GOZ IS
LIKELY TO BAN FUTURE VISITS BY OBSERVERS FROM THE SAME
ORGANIZATION.
C. (C) CAMPAIGN OBSERVERS, I.E. GROUPS ADMITTED WELL
BEFORE THE ELECTION, WILL ENCOUNTER FEWER GOZ OBSTACLES
THAN OBSERVERS ADMITTED TO MONITOR THE PRESIDENTIAL
ELECTION ITSELF. ONCE CAMPAIGN OBSERVERS ARE ADMITTED,
THEY WILL LIKELY BE PERMITTED TO TRAVEL FREELY ABOUT THE
COUNTRY; HOWEVER, CONSTANT SURVEILLANCE BY INTELLIGENCE
ORGANIZATIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS WILL OCCUR IF CAMPAIGN OBSERVERS ARE IN COUNTRY
IMMEDIATELY BEFORE OR DURING OTHER ELECTIONS, SUCH AS
THE BULAWAYO MAYORAL ELECTION AND MAKONI WEST BY-
ELECTION SCHEDULED FOR 8-9 SEPTEMBER, AND THE CHIKOMBA
BY-ELECTION SCHEDULED FOR 22-23 SEPTEMBER. IF THIS IS
THE CASE, CAMPAIGN OBSERVERS ARE MORE LIKELY TO
ENCOUNTER OBSTACLES SUCH AS POLICE CORDONS AND "NO-GO"
AREAS IN THE ELECTION DISTRICTS, POSSIBLE HARASSMENT BY
ZANU-PF SUPPORTERS, AND GOZ REFUSAL TO ACCREDIT
OBSERVERS (WHICH WOULD PROHIBIT THEM FROM GOING WITHIN
100 METERS OF ANY POLLING PLACE). ELECTION OBSERVERS
DESIGNATED TO OBSERVE THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION WILL
LIKELY ENCOUNTER SIGNIFICANT OBSTACLES SUCH AS FREQUENT
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 04 HARARE 02470 211601Z
CHANGES AND DELIBERATE CONFUSION OVER ACCREDITATION AND
OBSERVATION RULES, GOZ REFUSAL TO ACCREDIT UNTIL THE
LAST MINUTE, AND HIGH GOVERNMENT FEES. ONCE IN COUNTRY,
THEY MAY BE TURNED AWAY AT POLLING PLACES DESPITE
ACCREDITATION OR MAY ENCOUNTER HARASSMENT BY ZANU-PF
SUPPORTERS.
D. (C) WE HAVE NO INDICATION THAT THE MOVEMENT FOR
DEMOCRATIC CHANGE (MDC) PLANS TO INFLUENCE THE REPORTING
OF CAMPAIGN OBSERVERS OR ELECTION MONITORS, ALTHOUGH IT
IS CERTAINLY IN THE PARTY'S INTEREST TO EXAGGERATE
REPORTS OF VIOLENCE AND INTIMIDATION.
2. (C) COMMENT: ALTHOUGH THE GOZ HAS INFORMED US OF ITS
INTENTION TO ALLOW ELECTION OBSERVERS, THERE IS NO
UNDERSTANDING WHAT THE TERMS OF REFERENCE OF THESE
"OBSERVERS" MIGHT BE NOR WHETHER THE GOZ DRAWS A CLEAR
DISTINCTION BETWEEN "OBSERVERS" AND "MONITORS." IN ANY
CASE, WE STRONGLY BELIEVE THAT FOR POLICY REASONS WE
MUST TEST THE LIMITS THAT THE GOZ AND ZANU-PF MIGHT TRY
TO IMPOSE ON OUTSIDE MONITORS AS THE ONLY POTENTIALLY
CREDIBLE WAY TO DETERMINE THE DEGREE OF FAIRNESS AND
TRANSPARENCY OF THE UPCOMING ELECTION. END COMMENT.
ROTH
CONFIDENTIAL
>
SIPDIS
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS
NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/21/11
TAGS: KDEM PGOV PINR ZI
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE REGIME'S ATTITUDE TOWARD ELECTION
MONITORS (C-NA1-00977)
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 02 HARARE 02470 211601Z
REF: STATE 133497
CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL OFFICER TODD FAULK FOR REASONS:
1.5 (B) AND (D).
1. (C) BELOW ARE EMBASSY HARARE'S RESPONSES TO REFTEL
TASKING QUESTIONS:
A. (C) HIGH-LEVEL GOVERNMENT OF ZIMBABWE (GOZ)
OFFICIALS HAVE EXPRESSED TO US OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
MONTHS THE GOZ'S INTENTION TO PERMIT OFFICIAL GOVERNMENT
OBSERVERS OF THE 2002 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION. THIS
INCLUDES US, UN, EU, SADC, AND COMMONWEALTH/UK
OBSERVERS, ALTHOUGH WE DO NOT EXPECT THE GOZ TO
SPECIFICALLY INVITE ANY OBSERVERS, WITH THE POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION OF SADC. WE DO NOT EXPECT THIS OFFICIAL
POSITION TO CHANGE SUBSTANTIALLY, EVEN WITH A FURTHER
DETERIORATION OF ZIMBABWE'S RELATIONS WITH THE WEST,
BECAUSE THE GOZ VALUES THE STAMP OF LEGITIMACY WESTERN
OBSERVERS COULD CONFER ON AN ELECTION OUTCOME.
B. (C) ASSUMING THE ZIMBABWE DEMOCRACY AND ECONOMIC
RECOVERY ACT (ZDERA) HAS NOT YET PASSED THE US CONGRESS,
THE GOZ IS LIKELY TO ALLOW AT LEAST ONE GROUP OF
OBSERVERS INTO ZIMBABWE ANYTIME BETWEEN NOW AND THE END
OF 2001. WHETHER ADDITIONAL VISITS ARE PERMITTED MAY
DEPEND ON THE PASSAGE OF THE ZDERA AS WELL AS THE
PUBLICITY AND NATURE OF THE FINDINGS OF THE INITIAL
VISIT. WE DEEM IT LIKELY THAT ONE OF THE GOZ'S
RESPONSES TO ZDERA PASSAGE, OR THE IMPOSITION OF
PERSONAL SANCTIONS TARGETING PRESIDENT MUGABE AND KEY
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 03 HARARE 02470 211601Z
ADVISORS, WILL BE TO PROHIBIT US-SPONSORED CAMPAIGN
OBSERVERS FROM ENTERING ZIMBABWE BEFORE THE ELECTION.
(NOTE: THE GOZ IS STILL LIKELY TO ADMIT OFFICIAL USG
OBSERVERS INTO ZIMBABWE FOR THE ACTUAL POLLING DAYS
THEMSELVES, GIVEN THAT ZIMBABWEAN NATIONAL ELECTIONS
HISTORICALLY HAVE BEEN PEACEFUL. END NOTE.) IN
ADDITION, IF THE INITIAL GROUP'S, OR SUBSEQUENT GROUPS',
FINDINGS ARE NEGATIVE AND WIDELY PUBLICIZED, THE GOZ IS
LIKELY TO BAN FUTURE VISITS BY OBSERVERS FROM THE SAME
ORGANIZATION.
C. (C) CAMPAIGN OBSERVERS, I.E. GROUPS ADMITTED WELL
BEFORE THE ELECTION, WILL ENCOUNTER FEWER GOZ OBSTACLES
THAN OBSERVERS ADMITTED TO MONITOR THE PRESIDENTIAL
ELECTION ITSELF. ONCE CAMPAIGN OBSERVERS ARE ADMITTED,
THEY WILL LIKELY BE PERMITTED TO TRAVEL FREELY ABOUT THE
COUNTRY; HOWEVER, CONSTANT SURVEILLANCE BY INTELLIGENCE
ORGANIZATIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS WILL OCCUR IF CAMPAIGN OBSERVERS ARE IN COUNTRY
IMMEDIATELY BEFORE OR DURING OTHER ELECTIONS, SUCH AS
THE BULAWAYO MAYORAL ELECTION AND MAKONI WEST BY-
ELECTION SCHEDULED FOR 8-9 SEPTEMBER, AND THE CHIKOMBA
BY-ELECTION SCHEDULED FOR 22-23 SEPTEMBER. IF THIS IS
THE CASE, CAMPAIGN OBSERVERS ARE MORE LIKELY TO
ENCOUNTER OBSTACLES SUCH AS POLICE CORDONS AND "NO-GO"
AREAS IN THE ELECTION DISTRICTS, POSSIBLE HARASSMENT BY
ZANU-PF SUPPORTERS, AND GOZ REFUSAL TO ACCREDIT
OBSERVERS (WHICH WOULD PROHIBIT THEM FROM GOING WITHIN
100 METERS OF ANY POLLING PLACE). ELECTION OBSERVERS
DESIGNATED TO OBSERVE THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION WILL
LIKELY ENCOUNTER SIGNIFICANT OBSTACLES SUCH AS FREQUENT
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 04 HARARE 02470 211601Z
CHANGES AND DELIBERATE CONFUSION OVER ACCREDITATION AND
OBSERVATION RULES, GOZ REFUSAL TO ACCREDIT UNTIL THE
LAST MINUTE, AND HIGH GOVERNMENT FEES. ONCE IN COUNTRY,
THEY MAY BE TURNED AWAY AT POLLING PLACES DESPITE
ACCREDITATION OR MAY ENCOUNTER HARASSMENT BY ZANU-PF
SUPPORTERS.
D. (C) WE HAVE NO INDICATION THAT THE MOVEMENT FOR
DEMOCRATIC CHANGE (MDC) PLANS TO INFLUENCE THE REPORTING
OF CAMPAIGN OBSERVERS OR ELECTION MONITORS, ALTHOUGH IT
IS CERTAINLY IN THE PARTY'S INTEREST TO EXAGGERATE
REPORTS OF VIOLENCE AND INTIMIDATION.
2. (C) COMMENT: ALTHOUGH THE GOZ HAS INFORMED US OF ITS
INTENTION TO ALLOW ELECTION OBSERVERS, THERE IS NO
UNDERSTANDING WHAT THE TERMS OF REFERENCE OF THESE
"OBSERVERS" MIGHT BE NOR WHETHER THE GOZ DRAWS A CLEAR
DISTINCTION BETWEEN "OBSERVERS" AND "MONITORS." IN ANY
CASE, WE STRONGLY BELIEVE THAT FOR POLICY REASONS WE
MUST TEST THE LIMITS THAT THE GOZ AND ZANU-PF MIGHT TRY
TO IMPOSE ON OUTSIDE MONITORS AS THE ONLY POTENTIALLY
CREDIBLE WAY TO DETERMINE THE DEGREE OF FAIRNESS AND
TRANSPARENCY OF THE UPCOMING ELECTION. END COMMENT.
ROTH
CONFIDENTIAL
>