ZIMBABWE: GRIGSBY STAFFDEL MEETS WITH MDC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 002387 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/10/11 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR ZI SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE: GRIGSBY STAFFDEL MEETS WITH MDC LEADERSHIP CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL OFFICER TODD FAULK FOR REASONS: 1.5 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (C) ON AUGUST 6, SENATE STAFFDEL, LED BY GARRETT GRIGSBY, MET WITH THE MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 02387 01 OF 02 101141Z (MDC) LEADERSHIP IN THEIR NEW DOWNTOWN HEADQUARTERS. MDC PRESIDENT MORGAN TSVANGIRAI WAS ACCOMPANIED BY SECRETARY-GENERAL WELSHMAN NCUBE, NATIONAL COORDINATOR SIPDIS ISAAC MAPOSA, INCOMING ELECTION COORDINATOR NOMORE SIBANDA, PARLIAMENTARY AFFAIRS SECRETARY FORMAN FOTO, AND PRESIDENTIAL ASSISTANT GANDI MUDZINGWA. CHARGE AUBREY HOOKS AND POLOFFS ACCOMPANIED STAFFDEL TO THE MEETING. THE SITUATION -------------- ¶2. (C) AFTER INITIAL PLEASANTRIES, TSVANGIRAI OPENED BY SAYING THE CURRENT POLITICAL SITUATION IN ZIMBABWE IS "UNPRECEDENTED" AND THE COUNTRY IS SLIDING INTO DICTATORSHIP. HE OUTLINED THE EVENTS LEADING TO THE FORMATION OF THE MDC AND THE GOVERNMENT'S HEAVY-HANDED RESPONSE IN ATTEMPTING TO SUPPRESS THE OPPOSITION. EVEN AFTER THE MDC WON 57 OUT OF 120 ELECTED SEATS IN PARLIAMENT -- AN ELECTION IN WHICH THE MDC WAS SHORTCHANGED, HE ADDED -- THE GOVERNMENT STILL REFUSES TO DEAL WITH THE MDC AS A LEGITIMATE OPPOSITION PARTY. TSVANGIRAI ARGUED THAT THE UPCOMING PRESIDENTIAL SIPDIS ELECTION WILL BE THE MOST CRITICAL IN ZIMBABWE'S HISTORY. A FREE AND FAIR ENVIRONMENT IS CRUCIAL TO ITS LEGITIMACY; IF THE ELECTION IS FRAUDULENT, ZIMBABWE COULD "GO OVER THE PRECIPICE." THE BILL -------------- CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 02387 01 OF 02 101141Z ¶3. (C) ON THE ISSUE OF THE ZIMBABWE DEMOCRACY AND ECONOMIC RECOVERY ACT (ZDERA),TSVANGIRAI AGREED WITH THE CONTEXT IN WHICH THE BILL HAS BEEN FORMULATED, BUT HE FEARED THAT IT WOULD BE "POLITICIZED AS A SANCTIONS BILL" BY THE GOVERNMENT. HE SAID THAT THE MDC CANNOT TELL THE U.S. HOW TO DRAFT THE LEGISLATION, BUT OPINED THAT BROAD ECONOMIC SANCTIONS ARE "NOT AN OPTION" IN THE CURRENT DETERIORATING ECONOMY. THE U.S. CONGRESS HAS "GIVEN HOPE TO ZIMBABWE," AND HAS FOCUSED MUCH INTERNATIONAL ATTENTION ON THE COUNTRY, WHICH IT NEEDS TO GO IN A NEW DIRECTION, HE REMARKED. INTERNATIONAL OBSERVERS WILL BE CRUCIAL -------------- ¶4. (C) ON THE ISSUE OF SENDING INTERNATIONAL OBSERVERS FOR NEXT YEAR'S ELECTION, THE MDC PRESIDENT SAID THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY MUST INSIST ON THEM, EVEN IF THE GOZ OBJECTS AND CREATES OBSTACLES TO THEIR ARRIVAL. ISAAC MAPOSA ADDED THAT THE U.S. SHOULD NOT TRY TO SEND NDI, IRI, OR OTHER NGOS AS OBSERVERS BECAUSE THEY WILL NOT BE ACCREDITED. IT IS IMPORTANT THAT OFFICIAL REPRESENTATIVES OF THE USG, SUCH AS MEMBERS OF CONGRESS OR STATE DEPARTMENT EMPLOYEES, BE SENT AS THEY WILL BE ACCREDITED IN THE END. ONLY ACCREDITED OBSERVERS CAN ENTER POLLING PLACES AND TRAVEL FREELY FROM PLACE TO PLACE, MAPOSA NOTED. THEY SHOULD ALSO COME A FEW TIMES SEVERAL MONTHS AHEAD OF THE ELECTION BECAUSE THEY WILL NOT LIKELY SEE ANYTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY ON THE POLLING DAYS. EVEN A MONTH IN ADVANCE, THE CAMPAIGN WILL BASICALLY BE OVER. THE MDC PRESIDENT REMARKED THAT CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 02387 01 OF 02 101141Z THE PRESENCE OF OBSERVERS BEFOREHAND WILL GIVE ZIMBABWEANS HOPE AND ENCOURAGE THEM TO GO OUT AND VOTE ON ELECTION DAY. WHEN ASKED IF SOUTH AFRICA PLANNED TO SEND OBSERVERS, TSVANGIRAI THOUGHT IT WOULD. SOUTH AFRICA SENT A PARLIAMENTARY OBSERVER MISSION FOR LAST YEAR'S ELECTIONS. A NUMBER OF TRADE UNIONS AND NGOS FROM SOUTH AFRICA WENT AS WELL, BUT MAPOSA BELIEVED THESE WOULD BE REFUSED ACCREDITATION THIS TIME. ¶5. (C) TSVANGIRAI CONTINUED, SAYING ZIMBABWE ALSO NEEDS ASSISTANCE TO IMPROVE ITS ELECTORAL PROCESS, BECAUSE ANYTHING LESS THAN MAXIMUM EFFICIENCY IN THE PROCESS WILL ONLY AID THE RULING PARTY. THE WEST SHOULD HELP IN ENSURING THAT THE 1.5 MILLION ZIMBABWEANS LIVING OUTSIDE THE COUNTRY ARE NOT DISENFRANCHISED AS THE GOZ IS ATTEMPTING TO DO. IT'S NO SECRET THAT MOST OF THOSE WHO HAVE LEFT ZIMBABWE ARE NOT SUPPORTERS OF THE GOVERNMENT, AND IT IS IN THE GOZ'S INTEREST TO MAKE SURE THERE IS NO MECHANISM FOR THEM TO VOTE. CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ6460 PAGE 01 HARARE 02387 02 OF 02 101141Z ACTION H-01 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AF-00 DS-00 TEDE-00 SS-00 DSCC-00 SAS-00 /001W -------------- 108420 101141Z /38 R 101138Z AUG 01 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC 9449 INFO NSC WASHDC SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY AMEMBASSY NAIROBI C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 002387 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/10/11 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR ZI SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE: GRIGSBY STAFFDEL MEETS WITH MDC LEADERSHIP DON'T LET THE GOZ OFF THE HOOK -------------- ¶6. (C) WELSHMAN NCUBE OPINED THAT IN ITS DEALINGS WITH SOUTH AFRICA AND OTHER SADC STATES, THE U.S. SHOULD MAKE CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 02387 02 OF 02 101141Z CLEAR THAT IT WILL NOT BE "BUSINESS AS USUAL" WITH ZIMBABWE IF IT HOLDS A FRAUDULENT ELECTION. IT MUST ALSO MAKE CLEAR THAT A COUP D'ETAT WILL NOT BE ACCEPTABLE, EITHER. NCUBE STATED THAT ZANU-PF IS PREPARING TO GO TO WAR IF THE MDC WINS THE ELECTION, AND THAT THERE ARE MANY ZIMBABWEANS WHO WOULD RATHER STARVE THAN RISK GOING BACK TO WAR. SECURITY HELP -------------- ¶7. (C) TSVANGIRAI STATED THAT THE MDC DOES NOT PLAN TO HOLD ANY MORE PUBLIC RALLIES UNTIL THE DATE OF THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IS ANNOUNCED. PARTICIPANTS WILL JUST BE TARGETS OF REGIME-SPONSORED VIOLENCE, HE LAMENTED. AS FOR THE MDC'S OWN SECURITY ARRANGEMENTS, TSVANGIRAI NOTED THAT IT HAS ITS OWN MECHANISMS IN SIPDIS PLACE, AND IT IS TRYING TO INCREASE THE QUALITY AND NUMBERS IN ITS SECURITY APPARATUS. THE MDC SOMETIMES EVEN INFORMS THE POLICE OF ITS MOVEMENTS AND DEMANDS ESCORTS, GAMBLING THAT IT WILL GET THEM AT LEAST SOME OF THE TIME. WHEN ASKED WHAT THE U.S. CAN DO TO HELP, MAPOSA STATED THAT THE U.S. MAY BE LIMITED BY ZIMBABWE'S RESTRICTIVE POLITICAL PARTIES FINANCE ACT, BUT AN ARMORED CAR FOR TSVANGIRAI IS ESSENTIAL, AND RADIOS, BULLET-PROOF VESTS, PRINTING MATERIALS, AND A SATELLITE COMMUNICATION PLATFORM ARE ALSO NEEDED. GRIGSBY POINTED OUT THAT THERE IS A U.S. LAW THAT PERMITS SECURITY TRAINING FOR FOREIGN NATIONALS. GRIGSBY SUGGESTED THAT THE MDC, EVEN THE RULING PARTY, COULD BENEFIT FROM SUCH TRAINING. TSVANGIRAI APPEARED VERY RECEPTIVE TO THE CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 02387 02 OF 02 101141Z IDEA AND SAID HE WOULD BE IN TOUCH TO FIND OUT MORE ABOUT IT. COMMENT -------------- ¶8. (C) THE MEETING WAS VERY CORDIAL AND TSVANGIRAI DELIVERED HIS POINTS IN A CONFIDENT AND REASONED MANNER, WITH AN EYE TOWARD ELICITING GREATER SUPPORT FROM THE U.S. HIS DEPUTIES WERE ALSO WELL PREPARED WITH SPECIFIC IDEAS ON HOW THE U.S. COULD AID THE MDC IN ITS CAUSE. THE MDC IS CLEARLY MORE FOCUSED THAN IT WAS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR ON WHAT IS NEEDED TO OVERCOME PRESIDENT MUGABE'S TREMENDOUS ADVANTAGES AS INCUMBENT. END COMMENT. ¶9. (U) THIS CABLE WAS NOT CLEARED BY STAFFDEL BEFORE ITS DEPARTURE FROM HARARE. HOOKS CONFIDENTIAL >