A ZAMBIAN TAKE ON ZIMBABWE SITUATION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 002365 SIPDIS STATE FOR AF, AF/S, AND AF/RA LONDON FOR GURNEY PARIS FOR WILLIAMS-MANIGAULT NSC FOR SENIOR DIRECTOR FRAZIER E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/09/06 TAGS: PREL PGOV ZI SUBJECT: A ZAMBIAN TAKE ON ZIMBABWE SITUATION CLASSIFIED BY DCM ROBERT E. WHITEHEAD FOR REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. DCM PAID A COURTESY CALL ON ZAMBIAN COUNTERPART BEN SHAWA ON AUGUST 9. THE EXCHANGE WAS SURPRISINGLY FRANK AND PRODUCTIVE, WITH SHAWA CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 02365 01 OF 02 091356Z PROVIDING HIS TAKE ON ELECTION PROSPECTS, SADC ELECTORAL MONITORING, NDEBELE RUMBLINGS, ZDERA, AND THE IMPACT OF EVENTS IN ZIMBABWE ON ZAMBIA. END SUMMARY. -------------- FREE AND FAIR NOT IN THE CARDS -------------- ¶2. (C) SHAWA EXPRESSED THE VIEW THAT FREE AND FAIR 2002 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS ARE HIGHLY UNLIKELY. HE PREDICTED WIDESPREAD GOZ-SPONSORED VIOLENCE IN AN ATTEMPT TO INTIMIDATE WOULD-BE MDC VOTERS INTO EITHER VOTING ZANU-PF OR STAYING AWAY FROM THE POLLS ALTOGETHER. THE MUGABE STRATEGY, HE CONTINUED, WAS TO ENGINEER AN ELECTORAL VICTORY, AT WHICH TIME HE PLANNED TO REIN IN THE WAR VETERANS AND LAUNCH A CHARM OFFENSIVE ON THE INTERNATIONAL STAGE TO REHABILITATE ZIMBABWE'S IMAGE AND IMPROVE ITS PROSPECTS FOR RENEWED ECONOMIC ASSISTANCE. SHAWA DOUBTED THAT MUGABE COULD ACHIEVE THE LATTER AND WAS EQUALLY DUBIOUS ON THE SECOND POINT. HE CONCLUDED THAT THE PERCEPTION OF A STOLEN ELECTION RISKED SPARKING SERIOUS OUTBREAKS IN URBAN AREAS, WHERE PEOPLE FEEL THAT THEY HAVE LITTLE TO LOSE AND ACTUALLY WELCOME FACE-OFFS WITH SECURITY FORCES. -------------- TOOTHLESS SADC ELECTION MONITORS -------------- CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 02365 01 OF 02 091356Z ¶3. (C) DCM ASKED IF SADC WOULD MOUNT AN ELECTION MONITORING EXERCISE AS IT HAD DONE FOR PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS. SHAWA CONFIRMED THAT THIS WOULD CERTAINLY HAPPEN, ALTHOUGH NO PLAN HAD YET BEEN FINALIZED. HE ADDED THAT THE GRZ WOULD PUSH FOR THIS OUTCOME, SINCE IT FAVORED THE "SOFT, TOOTHLESS" APPROACH OF SADC, A LA MBEKI, RATHER THAN MORE RIGOROUS INTERNATIONAL SCRUTINY. HE PREDICTED THAT THE GOZ WOULD ORGANIZE A DIPLOMATIC OFFENSIVE TO ENSURE THAT OTHER SADC STATES STAYED IN LINE. HE NOTED THAT THE MDC'S ATTEMPT TO ARRANGE TOP-LEVEL MEETINGS FOR TSVANGIRAI IN SADC CAPITALS HAD PROMPTED THE DISPATCH OF GOZ TEAMS TO PRESSURE WOULD-BE HOSTS ON THIS POINT. A NUMBER OF SADC COUNTRIES HAD SUBSEQUENTLY DUCKED THE MEETINGS. IN ZAMBIA, TSVANGIRAI HAD BEEN SHUNTED OFF TO MMD HATCHET MAN MICHAEL SATA, WHOM SHAWA (PROTECT) TERMED "OUR (ZAMBIA'S) OWN WAR VET." -------------- HIGH-LEVEL NDEBELE DISCONTENT -------------- ¶4. (C) SHAWA SAID THAT THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT RIFTS AT THE TOP OF ZANU-PF, AND THAT ONE OF THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CLEAVAGES RUNS ALONG ETHNIC LINES. HE DESCRIBED A RECENT APPROACH BY MEMBERS OF THE KAFELA TRUST, WHICH HE DESCRIBED AS AN NDEBELE FOUNDATION. VICE PRESIDENT MSIKA, HOME AFFAIRS MINISTER NKOMO, AND MINISTER MOYO (HE DID NOT SPECIFY WHICH ONE) APPROACHED THE ZAMBIAN HIGH COMMISSION WITH A REQUEST TO SEND ARCHIVISTS AND CAMERAMEN TO ZAMBIA TO SEARCH CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 02365 01 OF 02 091356Z FREEDOM HOUSE AND MILITARY ARCHIVES FOR DOCUMENTS CHRONICLING ZIPRA'S ROLE IN THE LIBERATION STRUGGLE. THEY COMPLAINED THAT OFFICIAL GOZ CHRONICLES OF THE WAR EMPHASIZED THE CENTRAL ZANLA ROLE AND RELEGATED ZIPRA TO THE FOOTNOTES. ¶5. (C) SHAWA SAID THAT THE UNITY AGREEMENT WAS SHAKY AND POSITED THAT THE KAFELA TRUST INITIATIVE MIGHT BE A HARBINGER OF A MOVEMENT TO RECREATE A ZAPU ORGANIZATION AS OPPOSED TO THE ZAPU 2000 PARTY FORMED BEFORE THE 2000 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION, THAT FAILED TO GARNER WIDESPREAD SUPPORT IN MATEBELELAND. THE ZAMBIAN HIGH COMMISSIONER REQUESTED THAT THEY PUT THEIR REQUEST THROUGH OFFICIAL GOZ CHANNELS, TO AVOID ACCUSATIONS AFTER THE FACT THAT THE GRZ WAS PLAYING A DOUBLE GAME. SHAWA ADDED IRONICALLY THAT WHATEVER THE OUTCOME OF THE INITIATIVE, THE GRZ WOULD ENSURE THAT NO ONE FROM A KAFELA TRUST DELEGATION WENT TO BAROTSELAND. -------------- CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ3286 PAGE 01 HARARE 02365 02 OF 02 091357Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 USNW-00 DODE-00 DS-00 VC-00 TEDE-00 INR-00 VCE-00 DCP-01 NSAE-00 SSO-00 SS-00 DSCC-00 PRM-01 DRL-02 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /004W -------------- 0FC844 091357Z /38 O 091357Z AUG 01 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9437 INFO NSC WASHDC SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 002365 SIPDIS STATE FOR AF, AF/S, AND AF/RA LONDON FOR GURNEY PARIS FOR WILLIAMS-MANIGAULT NSC FOR SENIOR DIRECTOR FRAZIER E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/09/06 TAGS: PREL PGOV ZI SUBJECT: A ZAMBIAN TAKE ON ZIMBABWE SITUATION ZDERA -------------- ¶6. (C) DCM NOTED BROAD LOCAL PRESS COVERAGE OF SENATE PASSAGE OF ZDERA AND ASKED SHAWA WHAT HIS ZAMBIAN INTERLOCUTORS WERE SAYING ABOUT THE BILL. SHAWA CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 02365 02 OF 02 091357Z REPLIED THAT THE OVERWHELMING SENTIMENT AMONG THE LITERATE CLASS WAS THAT IF ZDERA HASTENED MUGABE'S DEPARTURE FROM THE SCENE, THEN THEY WERE FOR IT. ZANU-PF PROPAGANDA WAS MORE EFFECTIVE WITH THE LESS EDUCATED, HOWEVER, MANY OF WHOM TAKE AT FACE VALUE CLAIMS THAT THE LEGISLATION IS PART OF AN MDC PLOT TO ISOLATE AND IMPOVERISH THE COUNTRY. -------------- ZAMBIA KEEPS ITS HEAD IN THE SAND -------------- ¶7. (C) DCM QUERIED SHAWA ABOUT THE EFFECTS ON ZAMBIA OF THE GROWING CRISIS IN ZIMBABWE. SHAWA OBSERVED THAT THERE WAS LITTLE CONCERN IN LUSAKA THAT THE UNREST WOULD CROSS THE BORDER. LAND IS NOT AN ISSUE IN ZAMBIA, RACIAL/ETHNIC CLEAVAGES RUN LESS DEEP, AND THE WAR VETERAN PHENOMENON IS NON-EXISTENT. HE NOTED THAT THIS IS NOT THE CASE IN SOUTH AFRICA, WHERE THERE IS FERTILE SOIL FOR SIMILAR UNREST. DCM POINTED OUT THAT WHILE ZAMBIA MAY NOT BE POLITICALLY VULNERABLE TO THE ZIMBABWE DISEASE, IT IS NOT IMMUNE TO AN ECONOMIC DOWNTURN IN A MAJOR TRADING PARTNER, POSSIBLE INTERRUPTION OF VITAL TRANSPORTATION LINKS, OR EVEN POTENTIAL REFUGEE FLOWS. SHAWA REPEATED THAT THE GRZ IS NOT DEEPLY CONCERNED ABOUT THE EFFECTS OF THE CRISIS, INCLUDING REFUGEE FLOWS. CLEAR-THINKING REFUGEES WOULD HEAD SOUTH, NOT NORTH. -------------- COMMENT CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 02365 02 OF 02 091357Z -------------- ¶8. (C) THERE WAS NOT MUCH SURPRISING HERE OTHER THAN EX-ZIPRA MEMBERS LOOKING TO SET THE HISTORICAL RECORD STRAIGHT. WE CANNOT COMMENT ON SHAWA'S "ZAPU REBORN" THEORY, ALTHOUGH IT IS WORTH CONSIDERING THE POSSIBILITY THAT NDEBELE MEMBERS OF ZANU-PF MIGHT BE EXAMINING THEIR OPTIONS. SHAWA'S COMMENTS ON THE SADC ELECTION MONITORING MECHANISM WERE NOT ENCOURAGING. CONCERTED EFFORT IN ALL SADC CAPITALS TO COUNTER GOZ PRESSURE MAY BE ESSENTIAL TO PREVENT A SADC MONITORING EXERCISE FROM BECOMING A ZANU-PF RUBBER STAMP. HOOKS CONFIDENTIAL >