C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 002322

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER
LONDON FOR GURNEY
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER

E.O. 12958: DECL. 08/01/11
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM PINR MOPS ZI
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION LEADER TSVANGIRAI ON UPCOMING PRESIDENTIAL
ELECTION


CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE D'AFFAIRES AUBREY HOOKS. REASONS: 1.5
(B) AND (D).
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REF: HARARE 2239

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) IN A JULY 31 LUNCH HOSTED BY CHARGE HOOKS, MOVEMENT FOR
DEMOCRATIC CHANGE (MDC) MORGAN TSVANGIRAI SAID HE WAS PLEASED WITH
THE USG'S APPROACH TOWARD ZIMBABWE AND WITH HIS RECEPTION BY U.S.
OFFICIALS DURING HIS RECENT VISIT TO WASHINGTON. HE EXPECTS ZANU-
PF TO INTENSIFY THE VIOLENCE IN THE RUN-UP TO THE 2002
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, BUT INSISTS THE MDC WOULD NOT RESPOND IN
KIND. THE MDC PRESIDENT SAID HIS PARTY IS PREPARED TO PROVIDE
IMMUNITY TO PRESIDENT MUGABE IF HE STEPS DOWN, BUT MUGABE DOES NOT
TRUST THE MDC TO HONOR SUCH AN OFFER. TSVANGIRAI BELIEVES THE
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION WILL TAKE PLACE BECAUSE MUGABE NEEDS THAT
STAMP OF LEGITIMACY. BASED ON EXTENSIVE CONSULTATIONS WITH
MILITARY OFFICERS, THE MDC LEADER IS CONVINCED THAT THE ARMED
FORCES WILL NOT INTERVENE TO KEEP MUGABE IN POWER SHOULD
TSVANGIRAI WIN THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION. TSVANGIRAI SAID THE

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UNITED STATES COULD BE MOST CONSTRUCTIVE BY REMAINING ENGAGED ON
ZIMBABWE, COORDINATING ITS APPROACH WITH KEY MEMBERS OF THE
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY, AND BY PROVIDING ELECTION OBSERVERS AND
TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE TO THE ELECTORAL PROCESS. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) THE CHARGE HOSTED MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE (MDC)
PRESIDENT MORGAN TSVANGIRAI FOR LUNCH AT HIS RESIDENCE ON JULY 31.
TSVANGIRAI WAS ACCOMPANIED BY MDC DEPUTY SECRETARY-GENERAL GIFT

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CHIMANIKIRE, WHILE THE CHARGE WAS JOINED BY THE DCM AND POLITICAL
SECTION CHIEF.

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WASHINGTON VISIT
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3. (C) ASKED FOR AN ASSESSMENT OF HIS RECENT VISIT TO WASHINGTON,

TSVANGIRAI SAID IT HAD BEEN "VERY PRODUCTIVE." DURING THE COURSE

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OF HIS MEETINGS WITH USG OFFICIALS -- INCLUDING DEPUTY SECRETARY
ARMITAGE, A/S KANSTEINER, AND USAID ADMINISTRATOR NATSIOS --
TSVANGIRAI HAD NOTED A CHANGE IN ATTITUDE TOWARD ZIMBABWE AND A

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BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF THE MDC AND WHAT IT STANDS FOR.
TSVANGIRAI PRAISED A/S KANSTEINER'S UNDERSTANDING OF THE SITUATION

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IN ZIMBABWE, PARTICULARLY OF THE POTENTIAL FOR BREAKDOWN HERE.

POLITICAL VIOLENCE
--------------


4. (C) THE CHARGE INQUIRED WHETHER TSVANGIRAI ANTICIPATED AN
INCREASE IN VIOLENCE IN THE RUN-UP TO THE 2002 PRESIDENTIAL
ELECTION. THE MDC PRESIDENT REPLIED THAT HE HAS NO DOUBT THAT
ZANU-PF WILL INTENSIFY ITS CAMPAIGN OF VIOLENCE AGAINST THE
OPPOSITION AND ZIMBABWEAN VOTERS, AS THIS IS A KEY ELEMENT OF
THEIR STRATEGY FOR WINNING AT ALL COSTS. THE JULY 28-29 BY-
ELECTION IN BINDURA (SEPTEL) HAD CONFIRMED THAT EXPECTATION, AS
THE RULING PARTY HAD BUSED IN VOTERS FROM OUTSIDE THE
CONSTITUENCY, ESTABLISHED BASE CAMPS USED BY WAR VETERANS AND
PARTY THUGS TO INTIMIDATE VILLAGERS, AND ASSIGNED 200 YOUTHS TO
EACH POLLING STATION TO INTIMIDATE VOTERS. ASKED WHETHER THE
RULING PARTY COULD MOUNT SUCH AN EFFORT ON A NATIONAL SCALE,
TSVANGIRAI SAID NO, AS THEY DID NOT HAVE THE RESOURCES OR

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MANPOWER. THE MDC, TSVANGIRAI REPORTED, IS CONSIDERING
BOYCOTTING FUTURE BY-ELECTIONS UNLESS CERTAIN CONDITIONS ARE MET
THAT WILL INCREASE THE PROSPECTS FOR A FREE AND FAIR ELECTION.
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RECALLING THE ATTACK ON THE MDC PRESIDENT'S CONVOY IN BINDURA
(REFTEL), THE CHARGE ASKED WHETHER TSVANGIRAI FELT THREATENED. IF
HIS CONVOY HAD INCLUDED ONLY A COUPLE OF CARS, TSVANGIRAI REPLIED,
HE AND THE OTHER OCCUPANTS WOULD HAVE BEEN "PULVERIZED" AND HE
MIGHT HAVE LOST HIS LIFE. THAT SAID, THE MDC WAS DOING EVERYTHING
POSSIBLE TO MINIMIZE RISK BUT REALIZED THAT IT CANNOT ELIMINATE
IT. HE WENT ON TO SAY THAT HE DID NOT FEEL THAT HIS LIFE WAS
CONSTANTLY IN DANGER, DESCRIBING THE BINDURA INCIDENT AS A "ONE-
OFF" ATTACK.


5. (C) THE CHARGE ASKED WHAT THE MDC'S STRATEGY IS FOR DEALING
WITH ZANU-PF'S TACTICS. WE WILL NOT FIGHT VIOLENCE WITH VIOLENCE,
TSVANGIRAI INSISTED. THE MDC'S STRATEGY HAS BEEN TO REDUCE ITS

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SUPPORTERS' EXPOSURE BY NOT HOLDING LARGE RALLIES IN HOTSPOTS AND
BY QUIETLY EDUCATING PEOPLE ON THE GROUND TO REFRAIN FROM VIOLENCE
AND TO DO WHATEVER IS NECESSARY TO PROTECT THEMSELVES, INCLUDING
ATTENDING ZANU-PF RALLIES IF NECESSARY.

DISILLUSIONMENT WITH ZANU-PF
--------------


6. (C) IN THE TWENTY-ONE YEARS SINCE INDEPENDENCE, ZANU-PF HAS
DOMINATED ELECTORAL POLITICS AND BEEN ABLE TO WIN ELECTIONS

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ACTION AF-00

INFO LOG-00 CIAE-00 DODE-00 SRPP-00 EUR-00 VC-00 H-01
TEDE-00 INR-00 L-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 NSCE-00 OMB-01
PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 SS-00
TRSE-00 T-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DRL-02 G-00 SAS-00
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-------------- 0D4449 021704Z /45
P 021314Z AUG 01
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9407
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 03 HARARE 002322

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER
LONDON FOR GURNEY
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER

E.O. 12958: DECL. 08/01/11
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM PINR MOPS ZI
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION LEADER TSVANGIRAI ON UPCOMING PRESIDENTIAL
ELECTION

EASILY, THE CHARGE NOTED. WHAT HAS CHANGED THAT DYNAMIC?
PRIMARILY THE DETERIORATION OF THE ECONOMY, TSVANGIRAI REPLIED,
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PAGE 02 HARARE 02322 02 OF 03 021704Z
WHICH HAS LED TO A RISING DISILLUSIONMENT WITH PRESIDENT MUGABE'S
LEADERSHIP. THE YOUTH IN PARTICULAR ARE DISAFFECTED WITH MUGABE
AND WILL NOT GIVE HIM ANOTHER CHANCE. THIS IS A HUGE PROBLEM FOR
THE PRESIDENT, TSVANGIRAI POINTED OUT, BECAUSE SIXTY PERCENT OF
ZIMBABWE'S POPULATION IS UNDER THE AGE OF 40.


7. (C) TSVANGIRAI DECLARED THAT ZANU-PF IS IN THE PROCESS OF
DISINTEGRATING, AND THAT THAT PROCESS WOULD BE COMPLETE ONCE
MUGABE GOES. MUGABE, HE SAID, HAS PREVENTED THE REFORMERS, THOSE
CAPABLE OF DEVELOPING A NATIONAL FOLLOWING, FROM ADVANCING WITHIN
THE PARTY. THERE ARE GOOD PEOPLE IN ZANU-PF, HE SAID, AND FINANCE
MINISTER SIMBA MAKONI IS PROBABLY THE MOST QUALIFIED OF THEM.
UNFORTUNATELY, TSVANGIRAI SAID, MAKONI HAD CHOSEN THE WRONG CAMP.

MUGABE'S FUTURE
--------------


8. (C) THE CHARGE ASKED WHETHER MUGABE IS PREPARED TO STEP DOWN
UNDER CERTAIN CONDITIONS. THE ONE FACTOR WHICH GIVES MUGABE
PAUSE, TSVANGIRAI SAID, IS THAT HE FEARS FOR HIS SECURITY SHOULD
HE LEAVE OFFICE. ASKED WHETHER HE COULD BE OFFERED A GOLDEN
PARACHUTE, TSVANGIRAI ASSERTED THAT THAT WOULD DEPEND ON WHO
OFFERED IT, AS MUGABE HAS "ALWAYS MISTRUSTED EVERYONE." THE
CHARGE ASKED WHETHER THE MDC WOULD MAKE SUCH AN OFFER. TSVANGIRAI
STRESSED THAT HIS PARTY HAS MADE CLEAR IN A NUMBER OF PUBLIC
STATEMENTS THAT IT IS NOT INTERESTED IN RETRIBUTION. WE ARE MORE
INTERESTED, HE CONTINUED, IN REBUILDING THE COUNTRY THAN ON
PUNISHING INDIVIDUALS. THE MDC, HE SAID, IS PREPARED TO LET
MUGABE RETIRE AND LIVE IN PEACE, BUT THE ZIMBABWEAN PRESIDENT
"DOESN'T BELIEVE US."

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9. (C) TSVANGIRAI REMARKED THAT MUGABE WANTS TO ESTABLISH THE
TERMS FOR HIS OWN SUCCESSION, BUT THE TIME FOR HIM TO DO SO
UNILATERALLY IS LONG PAST. ASKED WHOM MUGABE WOULD PREFER AS HIS
SUCCESSOR, TSVANGIRAI SAID WITHOUT HESITATION "IT'S OBVIOUS,
EMMERSON MNANGAGWA [SPEAKER OF PARLIAMENT AND ZANU-PF SECRETARY
FOR ADMINISTRATION]." HE DISMISSED MNANGAGWA'S ELECTORAL
PROSPECTS, HOWEVER, INSISTING THAT HE HAS NO POLITICAL FUTURE IN
ZIMBABWE -- ONCE MUGABE GOES -- AND WOULD LOSE SOUNDLY TO THE MDC
PRESIDENT IN A PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION. (COMMENT: MNANGAGWA LOST
HIS RUN FOR PARLIAMENT IN THE JUNE 2000 ELECTIONS, AS DID
TSVANGIRAI, ALTHOUGH TSVANGIRAI SUBSEQUENTLY WON A HIGH COURT CASE

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OVERTURNING ZANU-PF'S VICTORY IN HIS CONSTITUENCY.) TSVANGIRAI EXPRESS
ED HIS BELIEF THAT MUGABE CANNOT AFFORD NOT TO HOLD THE ELECTION, WHICH
THE PRESIDENT SEES AS NECESSARY FOR HIS OWN E
XTERNAL LEGITIMACY.


10. (C) ASKED WHETHER THE RECENT LAW BANNING FOREIGN FUNDING OF
POLITICAL PARTIES HAD PROVED TO BE A SIGNIFICANT HINDRANCE FOR THE
MDC, TSVANGIRAI SAID NO, THE LAW HAD BEEN MORE OF AN
INCONVENIENCE. HE POINTED OUT THAT ZANU-PF IS ALSO RECEIVING
FUNDS FROM FOREIGN SOURCES.

GETTING ALONG WITH YOUR NEIGHBORS
--------------


11. (C) NOTING THAT TSVANGIRAI AND OTHER SENIOR MDC OFFICIALS
HAVE HAD REGULAR CONTACTS WITH THE SOUTH AFRICAN GOVERNMENT AND
THE CONGRESS OF SOUTH AFRICAN TRADE UNIONS (COSATU), THE CHARGE
ASKED HOW THE NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES SAW THE SITUATION IN ZIMBABWE.
THE GOVERNMENTS OF BOTSWANA, MOZAMBIQUE, AND SOUTH AFRICA,
TSVANGIRAI REPLIED, ARE SYMPATHETIC WITH THE MDC'S POSITION, WHILE

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ZAMBIAN PRESIDENT CHILUBA PREFERS TO SIDE WITH MUGABE GIVEN HIS
INTEREST IN PURSUING A THIRD TERM. SOUTH AFRICA, HE CONTINUED,
CAN AFFORD TO SPEAK OUT PUBLICLY ON DEVELOPMENTS IN ZIMBABWE, BUT
IT IS TRYING TO FIND AN EFFECTIVE BALANCE BETWEEN ENGAGING MUGABE
AND ISOLATING HIM.

ROLE OF THE UNITED STATES?
--------------


12. (C) THE CHARGE ASKED HOW THE UNITED STATES COULD BEST HELP IN
INCREASING THE PROSPECTS FOR A FREE AND FAIR ELECTION AND BUILDING
DEMOCRATIC PROCESSES AND INSTITUTIONS IN ZIMBABWE. TSVANGIRAI
URGED THE UNITED STATES TO REMAIN ENGAGED AND TO CONTINUE TO
CONDEMN "UNDEMOCRATIC PRACTICES." THE REMARKS BY SECRETARY POWELL
DURING HIS TRIP TO SOUTH AFRICA HAD BEEN VERY HELPFUL IN
POSITIONING THE UNITED STATES ON THE SIDE OF THOSE HERE WHO ARE
PRESSING FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE. HE ALSO ENCOURAGED THE U.S. TO
WORK CLOSELY WITH KEY AFRICAN LEADERS AND OTHER PARTNERS, SUCH AS
THE EU, TO ENSURE, TO THE EXTENT POSSIBLE, THAT THE INTERNATIONAL
COMMUNITY SPEAKS WITH ONE VOICE ON ZIMBABWE. HE ALSO ASKED FOR
TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE TO THE ELECTORAL PROCESS, SUCH AS CLEANING UP
THE VOTERS ROLL, AND THAT THE UNITED STATES SEND ELECTION
OBSERVERS.

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ACTION AF-00

INFO LOG-00 CIAE-00 DODE-00 SRPP-00 EUR-00 VC-00 H-01
TEDE-00 INR-00 L-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 NSCE-00 OMB-01
PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 SS-00
TRSE-00 T-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DRL-02 G-00 SAS-00
/005W
-------------- 0D4454 021705Z /45
P 021314Z AUG 01
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9408
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 03 HARARE 002322

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER
LONDON FOR GURNEY
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER

E.O. 12958: DECL. 08/01/11
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM PINR MOPS ZI
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION LEADER TSVANGIRAI ON UPCOMING PRESIDENTIAL
ELECTION


13. (C) THE CHARGE INFORMED TSVANGIRAI THAT THE UNITED STATES IS
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PLANNING TO PROVIDE INTERNATIONAL OBSERVERS BEFORE AND DURING THE
ELECTION. TSVANGIRAI WAS PLEASED WITH THAT NEWS AND STRESSED THE
IMPORTANCE OF HAVING RESPECTED INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS PROVIDE
REGULAR ASSESSMENTS BEGINNING WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE VOTING DAYS.
ASKED WHETHER THERE HAD BEEN MUCH SUBSTANTIVE DIFFERENCE IN THE
REPORTS ISSUED BY EUROPEAN AND U.S. OBSERVERS LAST JUNE AND THOSE
PUBLISHED BY SADC OBSERVERS, TSVANGIRAI DISMISSED THE SADC REPORTS
AS TOO SOFT ON MUGABE. HE REPORTED THAT ANC CHIEF WHIP TONY
YENGENI HAD TOLD HIM RECENTLY THAT HE NOW REALIZES SADC'S
ASSESSMENT OF THE JUNE 2000 ELECTION WAS INACCURATE.

ROLE OF THE MILITARY
--------------


14. (C) ASKED WHETHER MUGABE WOULD ALLOW THE MDC TO ASSUME POWER
IF IT WINS THE ELECTION, TSVANGIRAI SAID HE WOULD HAVE LITTLE
CHOICE, AS HE CANNOT RELY ON THE SECURITY SERVICES TO PROP HIM UP.
THE MDC PRESIDENT SAID HE IS CONFIDENT -- BASED ON EXTENSIVE
CONSULTATIONS WITH THE MILITARY -- THAT THE ARMED FORCES WILL NOT
INTERVENE TO KEEP MUGABE IN POWER SHOULD THE MDC WIN THE
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION. HE THOUGHT THAT SOME UNITS, SUCH AS THE
PRESIDENTIAL GUARD, MIGHT TRY TO DO SO, BUT THAT THE VAST MAJORITY
OF ARMED FORCES MEMBERS WOULD ABIDE BY THE RESULTS OF THE
ELECTION. IN ADDITION, THERE ARE ONLY ABOUT 1,000 ROGUE WAR
VETERANS ON WHOM MUGABE CAN DEPEND FOR SUPPORT.

LAND
--------------


15. (C) THE CHARGE ASKED TSVANGIRAI TO DESCRIBE THE MDC'S POLICY
ON LAND. IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO IMPLEMENT FAST-TRACK RESETTLEMENT
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ANYWHERE IN THE WORLD, TSVANGIRAI CONTENDED. IMPLEMENTATION OF A
GENUINE LAND REFORM PROGRAM REQUIRES A PLAN AND RESOURCES, NEITHER
OF WHICH FEATURES IN THE GOZ'S CURRENT CHAOTIC EFFORT. AN
ESSENTIAL STARTING POINT, HE DECLARED, IS FOR THE NATIONAL
LEADERSHIP TO RECOGNIZE BOTH THAT COMMERCIAL AGRICULTURE IS VITAL
TO THE COUNTRY'S WELL-BEING AND THAT SOCIAL EQUITY IS IMPORTANT.
IN ADDITION, FARMWORKERS ARE A CRUCIAL PART OF THE LABOR FORCE AND
MUST BE INCLUDED IN ANY SOLUTION TO THE LAND PROBLEM. MANY OF
THEM ARE THIRD- OR FOURTH-GENERATION ZIMBABWEANS AND TREATING THEM
AS FOREIGNERS IS UNFAIR.

MDC ON DRC
--------------


16. (C) ASKED FOR HIS VIEWS ON THE DRC CONFLICT, TSVANGIRAI SAID
IT CANNOT BE RESOLVED MILITARILY, BUT WHETHER A POLITICAL SOLUTION
COULD BE ACHIEVED DEPENDS ON THE EXTENT TO WHICH PRESIDENT KABILA
ENGAGES HIS COMPATRIOTS. ZIMBABWE, HE CONTINUED, HAS NO NATIONAL
SECURITY INTERESTS AT STAKE IN THE DRC. IF HE WINS THE
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, HE WOULD ORDER THE WITHDRAWAL OF ZIMBABWEAN
TROOPS. HE ADDED THAT THIS WOULD TAKE PLACE WITHIN THE FRAMEWORK
OF THE LUSAKA PROCESS, IN A FASHION THAT WOULD NOT DESTABILIZE THE
SITUATION IN THE DRC.

COMMENT
--------------


17. (C) ALTHOUGH SOME OBSERVERS HAVE EXPRESSED DOUBTS ABOUT
TSVANGIRAI'S EDUCATIONAL PREPARATION FOR THE PRESIDENCY (HIS

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ACADEMIC STUDIES DID NOT EXTEND BEYOND HIGH SCHOOL), HE IS
BRIGHT, ARTICULATE, THOUGHTFUL, AND WELL-INFORMED, AND WAS
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PAGE 04 HARARE 02322 03 OF 03 021705Z
COMFORTABLE DISCUSSING A RANGE OF DIFFICULT ISSUES. HE WAS
CONFIDENT BUT NOT ARROGANT AND SEEMED GENUINELY OPTIMISTIC ABOUT
HIS PRESIDENTIAL RACE PROSPECTS.


18. (C) TSVANGIRAI'S EFFORTS TO CULTIVATE THE MILITARY LEADERSHIP
ARE SMART POLITICS AND COULD PAY IMPORTANT DIVIDENDS DURING THE
ELECTION AND ITS AFTERMATH. HE MAY BE OVERLY OPTIMISTIC ABOUT THE
NEUTRALITY OF THE MILITARY, HOWEVER. WE WERE IMPRESSED BY
TSVANGIRAI'S FOCUS ON THE FUTURE RATHER THAN ON MUGABE'S

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SHORTCOMINGS, AND ARE ENCOURAGED THAT HE IS PREPARED TO LET THE
ZIMBABWEAN PRESIDENT RETIRE IN PEACE WITHOUT SEEKING RETRIBUTION.
IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT TSVANGIRAI IS A SHREWD POLITICIAN,
KEENLY AWARE OF THE NEED TO CULTIVATE THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY,
AND HIS COMMENTS MUST BE SEEN IN THAT LIGHT.

HOOKS

CONFIDENTIAL

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