ZIMBABWE SLIDING OMINOUSLY TOWARD A POLICE STATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 HARARE 002171 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER LONDON FOR GURNEY PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER E.O. 12958: DECL. 07/10/11 TAGS: PHUM PGOV ZI SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE SLIDING OMINOUSLY TOWARD A POLICE STATE REF: A) HARARE 2124 B) HARARE 2104 C) HARARE 1992 CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 02171 01 OF 04 130953Z D) HARARE 1955 CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE D'AFFAIRES MARK WOERNER. REASONS: 1.5 (B) AND (D). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) ZANU-PF HAS ESCALATED ITS INTIMIDATION OF OPPOSITION MDC LEADERS AND SUPPORTERS, AND IS MOVING TO ELIMINATE MANEUVERING ROOM FOR ALL OTHER INDIVIDUALS AND INSTITUTIONS THAT MIGHT THREATEN THE RULING PARTY'S CONTINUED HOLD ON POWER. IN THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS, ZANU-PF OR THOSE ACTING ON ITS BEHALF HAVE RAIDED THE MDC'S OFFICES IN HARARE AND BULAWAYO; BEATEN SEVERAL OPPOSITION MEMBERS OF PARLIAMENT AND PEOPLE CLOSE TO THEM; DESTROYED THE HOUSE OF AN MDC MP; TARGETED MDC SUPPORTERS IN TERROR CAMPAIGNS NATIONWIDE; AND INTENSIFIED REPRESSION OF COMMERCIAL FARMERS. ALL OF THESE DEVELOPMENTS ARE PART OF THE RULING PARTY'S INCREASINGLY VICIOUS BUT WELL-COORDINATED STRATEGY TO REMAIN IN POWER BEYOND THE 2002 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION. IT IS IMPORTANT THAT THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY DO ALL IT CAN TO HALT THIS ONCE-PROMISING COUNTRY'S SLIDE TOWARD TOTALITARIANISM. AN IMPORTANT STARTING POINT IS TO MAKE THE UPCOMING ELECTION A FOCAL POINT OF OUR DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS AND TO EMPHASIZE TO PRESIDENT MUGABE AND HIS ADVISORS PRECISELY WHAT CONSEQUENCES THEY WILL FACE IF THE ELECTION IS NOT FREE AND FAIR. END SUMMARY. ESCALATING HARASSMENT OF MDC OFFICIALS AND THEIR SUPPORTERS -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) ON JULY 5, THE DAY AFTER A NATIONAL TWO-DAY LABOR STAYAWAY CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 02171 01 OF 04 130953Z SHUT DOWN MUCH OF ZIMBABWE, UNIFORMED POLICE OFFICERS DESCENDED ON ONE OF THE OFFICES OF THE OPPOSITION MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE (MDC) IN DOWNTOWN HARARE. ACCORDING TO PRESS REPORTS, THE ARMED POLICE BLOCKED THE MAIN ENTRANCE TO THE BUILDING, SEARCHED AND DEMANDED IDENTIFICATION FROM EVERYONE COMING IN AND OUT. MDC SECRETARY-GENERAL WELSHMAN NCUBE, WHO WAS IN THE OFFICE AT THE SIPDIS TIME OF THE RAID, TOLD US THAT POLICE SAID THEY WERE LOOKING FOR ARMS OF WAR AND FOR ZANU-PF YOUTH BEING HELD HOSTAGE AND TORTURED ON-SITE. THE POLICE HAD NO SEARCH WARRANT, BUT PROCEEDED TO SEARCH THE PREMISES BEFORE DEPARTING. THEY DID NOT ARREST ANYONE OR CONFISCATE RECORDS OR EQUIPMENT. NCUBE WAS ALMOST NONCHALANT IN HIS CONVERSATION WITH US, SAYING THAT HE HAS COME TO EXPECT SUCH HARASSMENT FROM THE SECURITY SERVICES ACTING ON BEHALF OF THE RULING PARTY AND ANTICIPATED SIMILAR INCIDENTS IN THE RUN-UP TO THE 2002 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION. (COMMENT: THE MDC'S LEADERSHIP HAS GONE TO GREAT LENGTHS TO EMPHASIZE AND LIVE UP TO ITS COMMITMENT TO PEACEFUL CHANGE AND TO AVOID REACTING TO REGULAR PROVOCATIONS. IN THAT CONTEXT, THE POLICE OFFICERS' CLAIM TO BE LOOKING FOR ARMS OF WAR AND TORTURE VICTIMS IS ABSURD, AND CONFIRMS THAT THIS PARTICULAR ACTION WAS NOTHING MORE THAN HARASSMENT. END COMMENT.) ¶3. (C) ON JULY 6, PLAINCLOTHES POLICE OFFICERS ENTERED THE MDC'S OFFICE IN BULAWAYO, ZIMBABWE'S SECOND-LARGEST CITY. ACCORDING TO MDC MEMBER OF PARLIAMENT DAVID COLTART, THE POLICE, WHO WERE EXTREMELY AGGRESSIVE, HAD NEITHER A SEARCH WARRANT NOR AN ARREST WARRANT BUT REFUSED TO EXPLAIN WHY THEY WERE THERE. THEY ARRESTED THE MDC'S TREASURER, FLETCHER DULINI-NCUBE, AND AN MDC DRIVER, KHETHANI SIBANDA, AND CONFISCATED A 10-TON TRUCK BELONGING TO THE OPPOSITION PARTY. DULINI-NCUBE WAS RELEASED SEVERAL HOURS LATER, BUT SIBANDA REMAINED IN DETENTION UNTIL JULY 9, WHEN HE WAS CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 02171 01 OF 04 130953Z RELEASED ON BAIL. ¶4. (C) IN OTHER ACTIONS, IT IS CLEAR THAT MDC MEMBERS OF PARLIAMENT ARE BEING SINGLED OUT FOR PHYSICAL ABUSE AND THEIR PROPERTY TARGETED FOR DESTRUCTION. ON JULY 7, PAUL THEMBA NYATHI, THE MDC'S DIRECTOR OF ELECTIONS, WAS FORCED OFF THE ROAD IN BULAWAYO BY A CAR WHICH HAD BEEN FOLLOWING HIM FOR SOME TIME. HIS CAR ROLLED OVER SEVERAL TIMES, BUT HE MIRACULOUSLY AVOIDED SERIOUS INJURY. ACCORDING TO NYATHI, FOUR MEN DISEMBARKED FROM THE VEHICLE WHICH HAD RAMMED NYATHI'S TO INSPECT THE ACCIDENT SCENE, THEN SPED OFF. ON JUNE 23, A GROUP OF APPROXIMATELY 200 WAR VETERANS (SOME OF WHOM WORE ZANU-PF T-SHIRTS) USED STONES, BRICKS, AND BOTTLES TO DESTROY THE HOUSE OF MDC MP WILLIAS MADZIMURE, WHO REPRESENTS THE HARARE HIGH-DENSITY SUBURB OF KAMBUZUMA. MADZIMURE TOLD US THAT POLICE HAVE TAKEN NO ACTION AGAINST THE PERPETRATORS, WHO ARE WELL-KNOWN BUT CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE FREELY. ON JUNE 27, MADZIMURE WAS ASSAULTED BY A GROUP OF ZANU-PF SUPPORTERS WHILE IN A POLICE STATION FILING A COMPLAINT. NO ONE HAS BEEN ARRESTED IN THAT INCIDENT. ACCORDING TO PRESS REPORTS, A SHOP OWNED BY MDC MP JOB SIKHALA, WHO HAS BEEN BEATEN TWICE THIS YEAR BY ZANU-PF SUPPORTERS, WAS RANSACKED ON JUNE 27 BY 15 PEOPLE CARRYING AXES, STICKS, BRICKS, AND STONES. THE GROUP, LED BY A REPORTED ZANU-PF ACTIVIST IN THE AREA, BEAT THE SHOP'S TWO EMPLOYEES, ONE OF WHOM REQUIRED HOSPITALIZATION. CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ4208 PAGE 01 HARARE 02171 02 OF 04 130953Z ACTION ECA-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AF-00 AID-00 AMAD-00 CIAE-00 INL-00 DODE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 EUR-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 JUSE-00 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 SSO-00 STR-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 PRM-01 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /009W -------------- 051A1B 130953Z /38 O 130954Z JUL 01 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9302 INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY AMEMBASSY NAIROBI C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 04 HARARE 002171 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER LONDON FOR GURNEY PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER E.O. 12958: DECL. 07/10/11 TAGS: PHUM PGOV ZI SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE SLIDING OMINOUSLY TOWARD A POLICE STATE ¶5. (C) MDC SUPPORTERS ARE ALSO BEING TARGETED IN THE SWELLING CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 02171 02 OF 04 130953Z WAVE OF GOVERNMENT-SANCTIONED VIOLENCE. IN THE HARARE HIGH- DENSITY SUBURB OF EPWORTH, SIX PEOPLE HAVE BEEN KILLED IN THE LAST TWO WEEKS IN POLITICAL VIOLENCE PROVOKED BY SELF-STYLED WAR VETERANS AND GOONS IN THE EMPLOY OF ZANU-PF. THE LONG-SIMMERING TENSIONS IN THIS TOWNSHIP HAVE BEEN EXACERBATED IN RECENT WEEKS BY ZANU-PF SUPPORTERS, WHO HAVE DRAGGED SUSPECTED MDC BACKERS OUT OF THEIR HOMES IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT AND FORCED THEM TO WALK SEVERAL KILOMETERS TO A BASE CAMP, WHERE THEY HAVE BEEN SEVERELY BEATEN. ON JULY 7, THREE MDC OFFICIALS WERE REPORTEDLY SERIOUSLY INJURED IN RUSAPE, 170 KM SOUTHEAST OF HARARE, IN SEPARATE ATTACKS ON THEM BY ZANU-PF YOUTHS. THE RIGHT EYE OF ONE OF THE VICTIMS -- NATION SAGWETE, THE MDC DISTRICT YOUTH CHAIRMAN FOR MAKONI EAST -- WAS BLINDED IN THE SECOND ATTACK ON HIM IN LESS THAN TWO WEEKS. MEANWHILE ZANU-PF SUPPORTERS CONTINUE TO WAGE A CAMPAIGN OF TERROR AGAINST RESIDENTS IN THE MASHONALAND CENTRAL CAPITAL OF BINDURA, WHERE A PARLIAMENTARY BY-ELECTION IS SCHEDULED FOR JULY 28 AND 29. INCREASING REPRESSION OF COMMERCIAL FARMERS -------------- ¶6. (C) THE SITUATION ON COMMERCIAL FARMS NATIONWIDE IS HEATING UP, AS THE GOVERNMENT APPEARS INTENT ON BEATING FARMERS -- IN SOME CASES, QUITE LITERALLY -- INTO SUBMISSION. DAVID HASLUCK, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR OF THE COMMERCIAL FARMERS UNION (CFU),TOLD ECON/COMMERCIAL CHIEF ON JULY 9 THAT THE ORCHESTRATED CAMPAIGN OF VIOLENCE AND INTIMIDATION TARGETING COMMERCIAL FARMERS HAS INTENSIFIED IN RECENT WEEKS. ACCORDING TO HASLUCK, THE GOZ HAD RECENTLY ORDERED ITS GANGSTER MILITIA OF WAR VETERANS AND ZANU-PF SUPPORTERS (WHOSE TACTICS ARE BECOMING INDISTINGUISHABLE FROM THOSE OF MUSSOLINI'S BROWNSHIRTS) TO DELIVER A CLEAR MESSAGE TO WHITE FARMERS THAT ANY RESISTANCE TO THE CHAOTIC LAND RESETTLEMENT CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 02171 02 OF 04 130953Z PROGRAM WAS FUTILE AND WOULD ONLY RESULT IN INJURIES OR DEATH. THE CFU DIRECTOR INFORMED US THAT 92-95% OF ALL WHITE-OWNED FARMS IN ZIMBABWE HAVE NOW BEEN LISTED FOR COMPULSORY ACQUISITION, WITH THE GOVERNMENT AIMING FOR 100 PERCENT. ¶7. (C) SEVERAL RECENT INCIDENTS PROVIDE COMPELLING EVIDENCE THAT HASLUCK'S SOURCES ARE RIGHT-ON IN THEIR ASSESSMENT OF A NEW GOZ CAMPAIGN AGAINST FARM OWNERS. IAIN KAY, A FARMER AND MDC ACTIVIST RESIDENT IN MARONDERA, 75 KM SOUTHEAST OF HARARE, WAS HELD HOSTAGE, ALONG WITH TWO NEIGHBORING FARMERS, IN HIS HOME FOR THREE DAYS BY HOSTILE WAR VETERANS JULY 6-8. LAST YEAR, KAY WAS SEVERELY BEATEN AND LEFT FOR DEAD BY WAR VETERANS ANGRY THAT HE HAD NOT BUILT SHACKS FOR SQUATTERS ON HIS PROPERTY. IN THE MOST RECENT INCIDENT, MDC MP DAVID COLTART TOLD US, A WELL-KNOWN CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE ORGANIZATION (CIO) AGENT SUPERVISED THE ACTIVITIES OF THE WAR VETERANS, WHO ASSAULTED 20 OF KAY'S FARM WORKERS. THEY ENTERED HIS HOUSE TWICE BUT WERE FORCED TO RETREAT AFTER THE FARM OWNER FIRED A PISTOL INTO THE AIR. THE WAR VETERANS THREATENED TO KILL KAY IF HE DID NOT VACATE THE FARM IMMEDIATELY. THE TENSE STANDOFF WAS DEFUSED ON JULY 8 AFTER KAY AND HIS NEIGHBORS WERE ALLOWED TO LEAVE THE PREMISES, ALTHOUGH THE WAR VETERANS HAVE INSISTED THEY WILL ASSUME CONTROL OF THE PROPERTY WITHIN A MONTH. ¶8. (C) PHIL MATIBE, AN MDC ACTIVIST, COMMERCIAL FARMER, AND PARLIAMENTARY CANDIDATE IN THE JUNE 2000 POLLS, HAD HIS 650- HECTARE FARM SEIZED AFTER HE REFUSED TO WITHDRAW HIS LEGAL CHALLENGE OF ZANU-PF'S VICTORY IN CHEGUTU. THE VICTORIOUS ZANU-PF CANDIDATE, WEBSTER SHAMU, HAD INSTRUCTED MATIBE TO WITHDRAW HIS CHALLENGE OR HIS FARM WOULD BE SEIZED. MATIBE TOLD POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF THAT ON JUNE 7, THE DAY AFTER THE HIGH COURT CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 02171 02 OF 04 130953Z SCHEDULED A DATE TO HEAR HIS CASE, A GROUP COMPRISING THE DISTRICT ADMINISTRATOR AND REPRESENTATIVES FROM THE WAR VETERANS, POLICE, AND ZANU-PF APPEARED ON THE FARM AND GAVE MATIBE AND HIS FAMILY 24 HOURS TO VACATE THE PREMISES. (COMMENT: THE FACT THAT MATIBE'S FARM HAD NOT BEEN LISTED FOR COMPULSORY ACQUISITION UNDER THE GOVERNMENT'S FAST TRACK RESETTLEMENT PROGRAM, OR THAT HE IS BLACK, DID NOT SEEM TO MATTER TO ANY OF THE GOZ PLAYERS. END COMMENT.) FIFTEEN TO TWENTY SQUATTER FAMILIES WERE DROPPED OFF SOON AFTER, ERECTED TEMPORARY SHACKS, BURNED ALL OF HIS CROPS IN THE GROUND (WHICH INCLUDED TOBACCO, BARLEY, AND MAIZE) AND DESTROYED MOST OF THE INFRASTRUCTURE ON THE FARM. ¶9. (C) ON JUNE 15, A MESSAGE WAS CONVEYED INDIRECTLY TO MATIBE ORDERING HIM TO RESIGN FROM THE MDC AND TO WITHDRAW HIS LEGAL CHALLENGE; OTHERWISE, HE AND HIS FAMILY WOULD FACE UNSPECIFIED CONSEQUENCES. ON JUNE 22, THE CIO PROVINCIAL DIRECTOR FOR MASHONALAND WEST MET WITH MATIBE AND STATED EXPLICITLY THAT HE HAD BEEN SENT AS AN ENVOY FROM PRESIDENT MUGABE'S OFFICE. THE CIO DIRECTOR TOLD MATIBE THAT, IF HE WITHDREW HIS HIGH COURT PETITION, HE COULD CHOOSE WHATEVER FARM HE WANTED ANYWHERE IN THE COUNTRY AND THE GOVERNMENT WOULD BACK OFF IMMEDIATELY. IF HE DECLINED THE OFFER, THE ENVOY SAID, MATIBE WOULD BE CRUSHED. THE SENIOR CIO OFFICIAL CONTINUED THAT ZANU-PF WOULD ENSURE THAT ANY BUSINESS OR OTHER ECONOMIC INITIATIVE MATIBE TRIED TO UNDERTAKE WOULD FAIL, AND HIS PHYSICAL SECURITY AND THAT OF HIS FAMILY WOULD NOT BE CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ4211 PAGE 01 HARARE 02171 03 OF 04 130954Z ACTION ECA-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AF-00 AID-00 AMAD-00 CIAE-00 INL-00 DODE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 EUR-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 JUSE-00 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 SSO-00 STR-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 PRM-01 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /009W -------------- 051A2C 130954Z /38 O 130954Z JUL 01 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9303 INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY AMEMBASSY NAIROBI C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 04 HARARE 002171 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER LONDON FOR GURNEY PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER E.O. 12958: DECL. 07/10/11 TAGS: PHUM PGOV ZI SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE SLIDING OMINOUSLY TOWARD A POLICE STATE GUARANTEED. ALTHOUGH CLEARLY SHAKEN BY THIS ORDEAL, MATIBE CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 02171 03 OF 04 130954Z APPEARS DETERMINED NOT TO BACK DOWN AND TO MOVE FORWARD WITH HIS COURT CASE. (COMMENT: THE TREATMENT OF MATIBE PROVIDES THE MOST GLARING EXAMPLE TO DATE THAT THE GOVERNMENT'S FAST TRACK RESETTLEMENT PROGRAM IS MORE ABOUT INTIMIDATING POLITICAL OPPONENTS THAN RIGHTING HISTORICAL WRONGS OR EMPOWERING THE PEASANTRY. END COMMENT.) ¶10. (U) ACCORDING TO PRESS REPORTS, WAR VETERANS AND ZANU-PF SUPPORTERS ARMED WITH SPEARS AND AXES WENT ON A RAMPAGE THE WEEK OF JULY 2 IN MWENEZI, IN THE SOUTHERN PROVINCE OF MASVINGO, BEATING UP FARM WORKERS WHOM THEY ACCUSED OF SUPPORTING THE MDC. ONE BAFFLED FARMER IN THE AREA TOLD JOURNALISTS: "IT IS VERY DANGEROUS FOR US TO MOVE AROUND THE FARM BECAUSE THE WAR VETERANS HAVE BECOME VERY HOSTILE. THE WHOLE AREA HAS BEEN TURNED INTO A BATTLEFIELD." ON JULY 5, GROUPS OF AXE-WIELDING WAR VETERANS REPORTEDLY BROUGHT THE TOWN OF PLUMTREE, A BORDER TOWN 100 KM SOUTHWEST OF BULAWAYO, TO A STANDSTILL WHEN THEY HARASSED WORKERS AT COMPANIES THEY ACCUSED OF PARTICIPATING IN THE JULY 3-4 STAYAWAY ORGANIZED BY THE ZIMBABWE CONGRESS OF TRADE UNIONS (ZCTU). THE WAR VETERANS ALLEGEDLY THREATENED TO TAKE OVER THE COMPANIES AND DEMANDED THE TRANSFER OF ALL OF THEIR MANAGERS. ON JULY 5, THE GAME RANCH OF AN AMERICAN CITIZEN WAS OCCUPIED BY WAR VETERANS DROPPED OFF BY A POLICE LAND ROVER (REF A). DETENTION OF ZCTU SECRETARY-GENERAL -------------- ¶11. (U) THE JULY 12 DETENTION OF WELLINGTON CHIBHEBHE, THE ZCTU'S SECRETARY-GENERAL, SIGNALED THE GOVERNMENT'S UNHAPPINESS OVER THE SIPDIS SUCCESS OF THE JULY 3-4 STAYAWAY AND ITS CONCERN OVER THREATS BY THE LABOR ORGANIZATION TO CALL FOR AN INDEFINITE WORK STOPPAGE. CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 02171 03 OF 04 130954Z CHIBHEBHE WAS QUESTIONED FOR TWO HOURS BY POLICE, WHO ASKED ABOUT HIS POLITICAL AFFILIATION, THE COMPOSITION OF THE ZCTU AND ITS VARIOUS ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURES, WHICH KEY FIGURES DECIDE TO PROCEED WITH STAYAWAYS, AND THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE ZCTU AND THE INTERNATIONAL SOCIALIST ORGANIZATION. ZCTU PRESIDENT LOVEMORE MATOMBO CALLED THE QUESTIONING OF CHIBHEBHE "MERE HARASSMENT." MDC SPOKESMAN LEARNMORE JONGWE HAD STRONGER WORDS, SAYING "THIS HIGH-HANDEDNESS IN DEALING WITH LEGITIMATE DISSENT WILL NOT STOP THE PEOPLE OF THIS COUNTRY FROM DEMANDING THAT THE ELECTED LEADERS BEHAVE RESPONSIBLY." NEW CITIZENSHIP LAW -------------- ¶12. (U) ON JULY 6, PRESIDENT MUGABE SIGNED INTO LAW AN AMENDMENT TO THE CITIZENSHIP ACT OF ZIMBABWE INTENDED TO STRENGTHEN ZANU- PF'S PROSPECTS IN THE 2002 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION. ACCORDING TO THE IMPLEMENTING REGULATIONS, ZIMBABWEANS HOLDING DUAL CITIZENSHIP ARE REQUIRED TO RENOUNCE THEIR FOREIGN CITIZENSHIP WITHIN SIX MONTHS OF THE ENACTMENT DATE, IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE FOREIGN COUNTRY'S LAWS. PREVIOUSLY, ZIMBABWEANS HOLDING DUAL CITIZENSHIP WERE ONLY REQUIRED TO RENOUNCE THEIR FOREIGN CITIZENSHIP UNDER ZIMBABWEAN LAW, A RENUNCIATION WHICH SOME FOREIGN COUNTRIES DID NOT RECOGNIZE. ¶13. (C) COMMENT: OBSERVERS AGREE THAT THE AMENDMENT IS AIMED SOLELY AT DISENFRANCHISING WHITES, WHOM THE GOZ BELIEVES TO BE OVERWHELMINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF THE MDC. IT IS UNCLEAR, HOWEVER, HOW THE GOVERNMENT PLANS TO ENFORCE THE NEW PROVISION. WILL ALL WHITE ZIMBABWEANS, FOR EXAMPLE, BE FORCED TO PROVE THAT THEY ARE NOT CITIZENS OF ANOTHER COUNTRY WHEN THEY APPLY FOR RENEWAL OF THEIR CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 02171 03 OF 04 130954Z ZIMBABWEAN PASSPORTS? SINCE WHITE ZIMBABWEANS COMPRISE LESS THAN TWO-THIRDS OF ONE PERCENT OF THE POPULATION, THIS LAW BY ITSELF LIKELY WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE ELECTION OUTCOME. THE MOST WORRYING POSSIBILITY, HOWEVER, IS THE POTENTIAL IMPACT ON DUAL CITIZENS, MANY OF WHOM HAVE LIVED IN ZIMBABWE MOST OF THEIR LIVES, IF THEY OPT TO MAINTAIN THEIR FOREIGN CITIZENSHIP. THEY WILL HAVE TO APPLY FOR ZIMBABWEAN RESIDENCE PERMITS, AND A GOVERNMENT DENIAL OF THEIR APPLICATIONS COULD POTENTIALLY LEAVE THOUSANDS OF THESE INDIVIDUALS NOT ONLY STATELESS, BUT ASSET-LESS TOO. END COMMENT.) COMMENT -------------- ¶14. (C) THINGS ARE RAPIDLY GOING FROM BAD TO WORSE IN ZIMBABWE, AS THE RULING PARTY SEEMS TO HAVE CONCLUDED THAT RUNNING ON ITS RECORD IS NOT A RECIPE FOR ELECTORAL SUCCESS NEXT YEAR. ZANU-PF HAS ESCALATED ITS INTIMIDATION OF THE OPPOSITION AND THOSE SUSPECTED OF SUPPORTING IT, AND IS ELIMINATING THE MANEUVERING ROOM OF OTHER INSTITUTIONS AND INDIVIDUALS THAT MIGHT EVEN REMOTELY THREATEN THE PARTY'S STRANGLEHOLD ON POWER. CRUSHING THE OPPOSITION AND COMMERCIAL FARMERS; PROHIBITING CIVIC ORGANIZATIONS FROM CONDUCTING VOTER EDUCATION; THREATENING RURAL VOTERS WITH DEATH IF THEY VOTE MDC; OUTLAWING FOREIGN FUNDING OF POLITICAL PARTIES AND NGOS; MAKING IT IMPOSSIBLE FOR INDEPENDENT CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ4212 PAGE 01 HARARE 02171 04 OF 04 130954Z ACTION ECA-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AF-00 AID-00 AMAD-00 CIAE-00 INL-00 DODE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 EUR-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 JUSE-00 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 SSO-00 STR-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 PRM-01 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /009W -------------- 051A2F 130954Z /38 O 130954Z JUL 01 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9304 INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY AMEMBASSY NAIROBI C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 04 OF 04 HARARE 002171 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER LONDON FOR GURNEY PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER E.O. 12958: DECL. 07/10/11 TAGS: PHUM PGOV ZI SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE SLIDING OMINOUSLY TOWARD A POLICE STATE BROADCASTERS TO OBTAIN A LICENSE; AND IMPOSING STRINGENT CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 02171 04 OF 04 130954Z ACCREDITATION REQUIREMENTS ON FOREIGN JOURNALISTS THAT MAKE IT IMPOSSIBLE TO COVER BREAKING STORIES ARE ALL KEY ELEMENTS IN ZANU- PF'S INCREASINGLY VICIOUS BUT WELL-COORDINATED STRATEGY. ¶15. (C) GIVEN THAT THE RAPID POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC DETERIORATION IN ZIMBABWE WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC STABILITY OF THE REGION, AND THAT THE FUTURE OF DEMOCRACY HERE IS IN PERIL, IT IS CRITICAL THAT THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY DO ALL IT CAN NOW TO ARREST THIS COUNTRY'S SLIDE TOWARD TOTALITARIANISM. THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION, OF COURSE, IS WHAT ACTIONS FROM THE UNITED STATES AND OTHERS WOULD ELICIT THE KINDS OF CHANGES WE ARE SEEKING. AT A MINIMUM, WE WOULD ARGUE, IT IS IMPORTANT THAT WE WEIGH IN WITH THE GOVERNMENT NOW, PERHAPS IN CONCERT WITH KEY ALLIES, TO EMPHASIZE THAT WE EXPECT A FREE AND FAIR ELECTION, TO CLARIFY WHAT WE MEAN BY THAT, AND TO SPECIFY THE CONSEQUENCES THAT WILL FOLLOW IF THE ELECTION DOES NOT MEET THAT STANDARD. A RESPONSE FROM SECRETARY POWELL TO FM MUDENGE'S RECENT LETTER (REF D) MIGHT PROVIDE AN APPROPRIATE SENIOR-LEVEL CHANNEL FOR COMMUNICATING THAT INFORMATION. IN ADDITION, THE EMBASSY AND USAID MISSION ARE PREPARED TO MOVE FORWARD IMMEDIATELY WITH DEPLOYMENT OF A NON-PARTISAN TEAM OF ELECTION-RELATED MONITORS WHEN THE ESF FUNDS PLEDGED TO US FOR THIS PURPOSE IN FEBRUARY 2001 ARE DISBURSED. AS WE PROCEED WITH PLANNING FOR THE MONITORING EFFORT, WE WILL TAKE INTO ACCOUNT PREVAILING SECURITY CONDITIONS AND ADOPT ADEQUATE SECURITY PRECAUTIONS. WOERNER CONFIDENTIAL >