AJELLO IN HARARE TO DELIVER EU ULTIMATUM ON RULE OF LAW

C O N F I D E N T I A L HARARE 002012 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER LONDON FOR GURNEY PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER E.O. 12958: DECL. 06/26/11 TAGS: PREL PGOV ZI SUBJECT: AJELLO IN HARARE TO DELIVER EU ULTIMATUM ON RULE OF LAW AND TO DISCUSS DRC REF: A) HARARE 1999 B) USEU BRUSSELS 3304 CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE D'AFFAIRES AUBREY HOOKS. REASONS: 1.5 CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 02012 271453Z (B) AND (D). ¶1. (U) AMBASSADOR HOOKS ATTENDED A DINNER ON JUNE 26 HOSTED BY HIS SWEDISH COUNTERPART, LENNARTH HJELMAKER, IN HONOR OF VISITING EU GREAT LAKES ENVOY ALDO AJELLO. ALSO IN ATTENDANCE WERE UNDP RESIDENT REPRESENTATIVE VICTOR ANGELO AND THE CHIEFS OF MISSION FROM AUSTRALIA, DENMARK, NORWAY, AND CANADA, AS WELL AS AJELLO'S TWO ASSISTANTS. ZIMBABWE -------------- ¶2. (C) AMBASSADOR HJELMAKER INFORMED THE GROUP THAT AJELLO AND HE HAD BEEN INSTRUCTED TO DELIVER TO THE GOZ A LETTER FROM THE EU GENERAL AFFAIRS COUNCIL EXPRESSING UNHAPPINESS OVER THE LACK OF PROGRESS IN THE ARTICLE 8 DIALOGUE (REFTELS). THE SWEDISH AMBASSADOR UNDERSCORED THE FEELING OF DEEP FRUSTRATION FELT BY EU MINISTERS GATHERED IN BRUSSELS, AMONG WHOM THERE HAD BEEN COMPLETE UNANIMITY ON THE NEED TO SEND THE LETTER AND TO IMPOSE A TWO-MONTH DEADLINE FOR ACHIEVEMENT OF SATISFACTORY PROGRESS. THE GOVERNMENT OF ZIMBABWE, HE SAID, MUST MEET THE CONDITIONS IN THE LETTER WITHIN TWO MONTHS OR THE EU WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY MOVE TO ARTICLE ¶96. HE NOTED THAT EU AMBASSADORS IN HARARE PREFER A MORE MEASURED APPROACH, BUT THE MINISTERS ARE DETERMINED TO TAKE A TOUGHER TACK. HJELMAKER AND AJELLO PLANNED TO PRESENT THE LETTER TO PRESIDENT MUGABE THE FOLLOWING DAY, ON JUNE 27. DRC --- ¶3. (C) AJELLO REPORTED THAT HE HAD MET ON JUNE 25 WITH FM CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 02012 271453Z MUDENGE, WHO FOCUSED ON DEVELOPMENTS IN THE DRC AND AVOIDED DISCUSSION OF ZIMBABWE'S INTERNAL SITUATION. MUDENGE CRITICIZED THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY FOR LETTING DOWN THE DRC AND DISMISSED EFFORTS TO ARRANGE THE NATIONAL DIALOGUE, SAYING THEY WOULD NOT SUCCEED. WHEN AJELLO INQUIRED ABOUT KETUMILE MASIRE'S RECENT VISIT, MUDENGE BURST OUT LAUGHING. ASKED WHY HE WAS LAUGHING, MUDENGE CONTINUED GUFFAWING, BUT FINALLY COMPOSED HIMSELF ENOUGH TO COMMENT THAT MASIRE DOES NOT KNOW HOW TO MANAGE THE NATIONAL DIALOGUE, AND IT WOULD FAIL. MUDENGE INSISTED THAT ZIMBABWE IS NOT REQUIRED TO WITHDRAW ITS TROOPS BECAUSE THEY WERE INVITED INTO THE DRC. AJELLO HAD BEEN TOLD HE COULD MEET ON JUNE 26 WITH PRESIDENT MUGABE BUT WAS KEPT WAITING ALL DAY. THE MUGABE MEETING WAS RESCHEDULED FOR THE MORNING OF JUNE 27. ¶4. (C) SHARING HIS OWN VIEWS ON THE DRC, AJELLO SAID KABILA AND HIS ALLIES ARE DELIBERATELY PUSHING NEGATIVE FORCES (RWANDAN EX- FAR/INTERAHAMWE) TO THE EAST. HE REJECTED MUDENGE'S CONTENTION REGARDING THE WITHDRAWAL OF ZIMBABWEAN TROOPS, SAYING THE FOREIGN MINISTER SEEMED TO HAVE OVERLOOKED THE FACT THAT HIS GOVERNMENT SIGNED THE LUSAKA ACCORDS. REGARDING THE NATIONAL DIALOGUE, THE EU ENVOY DECLARED THAT MASIRE IS GOING ABOUT IT THE WRONG WAY AND REFUSES TO ACCEPT ANY ADVICE. HE LAMENTED THAT THE PROCESS COULD DRAG ON FOR YEARS. TWO FUNDAMENTAL OBSTACLES TO THE NATIONAL DIALOGUE, ACCORDING TO AJELLO, ARE THAT THE REBELS WILL NOT ACCEPT KABILA AS PRESIDENT, AND KABILA WILL NOT COMMIT POLITICAL SUICIDE BY ENGAGING TOO SERIOUSLY. COMMENT -------------- ¶5. (C) MUDENGE'S REPORTED CLAIM THAT ZIMBABWE IS NOT REQUIRED TO CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 02012 271453Z WITHDRAW ITS TROOPS IS TROUBLING AND REFLECTS A DELIBERATE MISINTERPRETATION OF THE LUSAKA ACCORDS. HIS REMARK, HOWEVER, IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT COMMENTS WE HAVE HEARD FROM OTHER GOZ OFFICIALS, INCLUDING SENIOR DEFENSE FORCE LEADERS. THEIR REMARKS SUGGEST A DETERMINATION TO LEAVE BEHIND AT LEAST A SMALL MILITARY CONTINGENT TO PROTECT ZIMBABWEAN ECONOMIC INTERESTS, IRRESPECTIVE OF THE WITHDRAWAL OF THE OTHER ALLIED FORCES OR THE LANGUAGE CONTAINED IN THE LUSAKA ACCORDS. ZIMBABWE IS ALSO RELUCTANT TO GIVE UP ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE NEW KABILA REGIME, SOMETHING ITS TROOP PRESENCE ENSURES. THAT SAID, WE REMAIN CONVINCED THAT THE GOZ HOPES TO BRING HOME MOST OF ITS TROOPS PRIOR TO THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION EXPECTED IN EARLY 2002. AJELLO WAS CONTEMPTUOUS OF MASIRE'S APPROACH TO THE NATIONAL DIALOGUE AND HAD NO EXPECTATION THAT HIS EFFORTS WOULD BEAR FRUIT. HOOKS CONFIDENTIAL >