EU FRUSTRATED AT LACK OF PROGRESS IN DIALOGUE WITH

C O N F I D E N T I A L HARARE 001999 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER LONDON FOR GURNEY PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER E.O. 12958: DECL. 06/26/11 TAGS: PREL ZI SUBJECT: EU FRUSTRATED AT LACK OF PROGRESS IN DIALOGUE WITH ZIMBABWE, THROWS DOWN GAUNTLET CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE D'AFFAIRES AUBREY HOOKS. REASONS: 1.5 CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 01999 261520Z (B) AND (D). ¶1. (C) THE SWEDES, AS EU PRESIDENT, HAVE LED THE EU TROIKA'S DISCUSSIONS IN HARARE WITH THE GOVERNMENT OF ZIMBABWE UNDER ARTICLE 8 OF THE COTONOU AGREEMENT, WHICH BEGAN EARLY THIS YEAR. THE TROIKA'S EFFORTS TO ENGAGE THE GOZ IN SUBSTANTIVE DISCUSSIONS ABOUT ITS RANGE OF CONCERNS, HOWEVER, HAVE GOTTEN NOWHERE WITH MFA PERMANENT SECRETARY WILLARD CHIWEWE, THE SENIOR GOZ INTERLOCUTOR IN THIS EXERCISE. ¶2. (C) POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF WAS INFORMED BY HIS SWEDISH COUNTERPART -- IRINA SCHOULGIN -- ON JUNE 26 THAT THE EU'S GENERAL AFFAIRS COUNCIL (COMPRISING FOREIGN MINISTERS) IS FED UP WITH THE GOZ'S REFUSAL TO ENGAGE SERIOUSLY WITH THE EU. THE COUNCIL DECIDED IN BRUSSELS ON JUNE 25 TO DELIVER A TOUGH WARNING TO THE GOZ AND INSTRUCTED THE SWEDISH AMBASSADOR IN HARARE TO DELIVER A LETTER TO THE GOVERNMENT CONVEYING THE FOLLOWING POINTS: --NOTING LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL PROGRESS IN ITS DIALOGUE WITH ZIMBABWE; --EXPRESSING DEEP CONCERN OVER DEVELOPMENTS HERE, CALLING FOR: A) AN END TO POLITICAL VIOLENCE; B) AN INVITATION TO THE EU TO MONITOR THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION; C) CONCRETE ACTIONS TO PROTECT FREEDOM OF THE MASS MEDIA; D) INDEPENDENCE OF THE JUDICIARY AND RESPECT FOR ITS DECISIONS; E) AN END TO ILLEGAL OCCUPATION OF PROPERTY; --PROMISING TO FOLLOW CLOSELY DEVELOPMENTS IN THE ABOVE AREAS DURING THE NEXT TWO MONTHS AND TO TAKE APPROPRIATE MEASURES IF SUBSTANTIAL PROGRESS IS NOT ACHIEVED. ¶3. (C) THE LAST POINT, SCHOULGIN NOTED, IS A CLEAR THREAT TO MOVE TO ARTICLE 96, WHICH COULD REQUIRE THE SUSPENSION OF ALL EU AID TO CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 01999 261520Z ZIMBABWE, WHICH IS SUBSTANTIAL. THE SWEDISH AMBASSADOR HOPES TO DELIVER THE LETTER TO FOREIGN MINISTER MUDENGE ON JUNE 27 AND SUBSEQUENTLY PLANS TO RELEASE IT PUBLICLY. ¶4. (C) ON ANOTHER MATTER, SCHOULGIN REPORTED THAT EU GREAT LAKES ENVOY AJELLO IS IN TOWN TO DISCUSS DEVELOPMENTS IN THE DRC. HE MET WITH FM MUDENGE ON JUNE 25 AND WILL MEET WITH PRESIDENT MUGABE ON JUNE 26. AMBASSADOR HOOKS PLANS TO DINE WITH AJELLO THE EVENING OF JUNE 26 AND WILL SOLICIT A READOUT OF HIS HARARE DISCUSSIONS. COMMENT -------------- ¶5. (C) ALTHOUGH WE HAVE NOT SEEN A COPY OF THE EU'S LETTER, THE DRAFT LANGUAGE DESCRIBED BY OUR SWEDISH COLLEAGUE IS VERY STRONG INDEED. ACCORDING TO A NUMBER OF EU DIPLOMATS HERE, THE TWO-MONTH DEADLINE IS FIRM; WITHOUT ACHIEVEMENT OF "SUBSTANTIAL PROGRESS" DURING THAT PERIOD, THE EU APPEARS DETERMINED TO MOVE TO ARTICLE ¶96. IT IS REFRESHING TO SEE THE EU TAKING SUCH A HARD LINE. ALTHOUGH WE ARE SKEPTICAL THAT THE LETTER WILL ELICIT SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS, IT WILL PUT THE GOZ ON NOTICE THAT IT FACES SERIOUS CONSEQUENCES FOR NOT TAKING CONCRETE STEPS TO ADDRESS EU CONCERNS. HOOKS CONFIDENTIAL >