MDC LEADER DISCUSSES ZANU-PF STRATEGY, SOUTH AFRICA, THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 001798 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER E.O. 12958: DECL. 06/04/11 TAGS: PGOV PHUM MARR PINS PINR ZI SUBJECT: MDC LEADER DISCUSSES ZANU-PF STRATEGY, SOUTH AFRICA, THE ZIMBABWEAN MILITARY, AND SECRETARY POWELL'S REMARKS CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 01798 01 OF 02 051323Z REF: HARARE 1784 CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE D'AFFAIRES EARL M. IRVING. REASONS: 1.5 (B) AND (D). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE (MDC) PRESIDENT MORGAN TSVANGIRAI TOLD CHARGE ON JUNE 4 THAT THE DEATHS THE PAST MONTH SIPDIS OF THREE ZANU-PF STALWARTS, THE LOSS OF THE MASVINGO MAYORAL ELECTION, AND THE BACKLASH FROM THE WAR VETERANS' "LABOR DISPUTE" CAMPAIGN MIGHT LEAD THE RULING PARTY TO REASSESS ITS CAMPAIGN TACTICS. THE MDC PRESIDENT PRAISED SECRETARY POWELL'S RECENT REMARKS, SAYING THEY PUT ADDITIONAL PRESSURE ON SOUTH AFRICA TO DO SOMETHING ABOUT ZIMBABWE. TSVANGIRAI SAID THE MDC ENJOYS GOOD RELATIONS WITH SOUTH AFRICA AND THE ANC, BUT HE WAS CONCERNED THAT DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE LEADER TONY LEON'S OUTSPOKENNESS BOLSTERS MUGABE'S EFFORTS TO PORTRAY THE ZIMBABWEAN OPPOSITION PARTY AS A FRONT FOR WHITE INTERESTS. THE MDC TAKES SERIOUSLY MUGABE'S THREAT "NEVER, EVER" TO ALLOW IT TO GOVERN ZIMBABWE AND BELIEVES THREE-QUARTERS OF THE ARMED FORCES WILL SUPPORT IT IN THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION EXPECTED IN 2002. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) CHARGE, ACCOMPANIED BY POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF, CALLED BRIEFLY ON MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE (MDC) PRESIDENT MORGAN TSVANGIRAI ON JUNE 4. CHARGE INFORMED TSVANGIRAI THAT ASSISTANT SIPDIS SECRETARY KANSTEINER HAD RECENTLY BEEN CONFIRMED BY THE U.S. SIPDIS SENATE AND NOTED THAT WE WERE AWARE THAT TSVANGIRAI PLANNED TO VISIT WASHINGTON FOR SEVERAL DAYS AT THE END OF JUNE -- FOLLOWING CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 01798 01 OF 02 051323Z A TWO-WEEK LEADERSHIP SEMINAR AT HARVARD UNIVERSITY. HE SUGGESTED THAT MEMBERS OF THE ADMINISTRATION WOULD BE INTERESTED IN HEARING THE MDC PRESIDENT'S VIEWS. DEATHS OF GEZI, MAHACHI, AND HUNZVI -------------- ¶3. (C) ASKED HIS THOUGHTS ON THE LIKELY IMPACT OF THE DEATH OF WAR VETERAN LEADER CHENJERAI "HITLER" HUNZVI, TSVANGIRAI REPLIED, LOOKING SKYWARD, THAT "SOMEONE UP THERE WHERE ZANU-PF DOES NOT HAVE A MONOPOLY ON POWER" MUST BE LOOKING AFTER ZIMBABWEANS. THINGS ARE NOT GOING WELL FOR ZANU-PF, TSVANGIRAI ASSERTED. DURING THE PAST MONTH, THE RULING PARTY HAS SUFFERED THE DEVASTATING LOSS OF THREE FIGURES CRITICAL TO ITS TACTICS OF VIOLENCE AND INTIMIDATION -- THE MINISTER OF DEFENSE, THE MINISTER OF YOUTH DEVELOPMENT, GENDER, AND EMPLOYMENT CREATION, AND NOW HUNZVI. ZANU-PF'S LOSS TO THE MDC IN THE MASVINGO MAYORAL ELECTION HAD BEEN EMBARRASSING FOR THE RULING PARTY. IN ADDITION, THE RECENT EFFORT BY WAR VETERANS TO RESOLVE LABOR DISPUTES HAD BACKFIRED BADLY FOR ZANU-PF, ALIENATING BOTH ZIMBABWEAN VOTERS AND THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY. THE MDC PRESIDENT SURMISED THAT THE RULING PARTY CONSEQUENTLY MIGHT BE REASSESSING ITS STRATEGY AND COULD DECIDE TO TRY RUNNING A "LEGITIMATE" CAMPAIGN IN THE BULAWAYO MAYORAL RACE SCHEDULED TO TAKE PLACE JUNE 23-24. TSVANGIRAI INSISTED, HOWEVER, THAT SUCH A TACTICAL CHANGE WOULD ACCOMPLISH LITTLE IN BULAWAYO, AS AN MDC VICTORY THERE WAS ALL BUT A FOREGONE CONCLUSION. SECRETARY POWELL'S REMARKS AND SOUTH AFRICA'S ROLE SIPDIS -------------- -------------- CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 01798 01 OF 02 051323Z ¶4. (C) THE MDC PRESIDENT SAID HE WAS PLEASED WITH SECRETARY POWELL'S REMARKS ABOUT ZIMBABWE, DURING HIS VISIT TO PRETORIA, AND THAT THEY HAD SENT A MESSAGE TO THE GOVERNMENT OF ZIMBABWE THAT "MUGABE'S TIME IS UP." HE BELIEVED POWELL'S COMMENTS WOULD PUT PRESSURE ON OTHER COUNTRIES WITH MORE INFLUENCE IN ZIMBABWE TO STEP UP THEIR EFFORTS TO EFFECT POSITIVE CHANGE, SOUTH AFRICA IN PARTICULAR. ¶5. (C) ASKED TO DESCRIBE THE MDC'S RELATIONSHIP WITH ZIMBABWE'S SOUTHERN NEIGHBOR, TSVANGIRAI PROVIDED AN UPBEAT ASSESSMENT, INSISTING THAT THE SOUTH AFRICAN GOVERNMENT (SAG) HAS "DEPARTED COMPLETELY" FROM ITS ORIGINAL APPROACH. THE SAG, HE POINTED OUT, IS BEING MUCH MORE CRITICAL OF PRESIDENT MUGABE AND HIS GOVERNMENT, AND THE MDC ENJOYS POSITIVE TIES WITH THE SAG AND THE ANC. TSVANGIRAI CONTINUED, HOWEVER, THAT PEOPLE LIKE DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE LEADER TONY LEON "DO NOT HELP MATTERS." LEON ACTS AS IF HE IS SPEAKING ON BEHALF OF THE MDC, A FACT WHICH PLAYS INTO MUGABE'S ATTEMPTS TO PORTRAY ZIMBABWE'S PRINCIPAL OPPOSITION PARTY AS MERELY A FRONT FOR WHITE INTERESTS. TSVANGIRAI WAS PARTICULARLY UPSET ABOUT A QUESTION LEON RECENTLY POSED TO PRESIDENT THABO MBEKI IN PARLIAMENT ABOUT LAND REFORM IN ZIMBABWE, WHICH APPARENTLY FORCED THE SOUTH AFRICAN PRESIDENT TO ENDORSE THE GOZ'S FAST TRACK RESETTLEMENT PROGRAM. WILL MUGABE ALLOW MDC TO TAKE POWER? CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTO9067 PAGE 01 HARARE 01798 02 OF 02 051323Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 AMAD-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 USNW-00 DINT-00 DODE-00 DOTE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 EUR-00 FAAE-00 FBIE-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 LAB-01 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 IRM-00 STR-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 PRM-01 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /010W -------------- F485D1 051323Z /38 P 051241Z JUN 01 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9029 INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY AMEMBASSY NAIROBI C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 001798 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER E.O. 12958: DECL. 06/04/11 TAGS: PGOV PHUM MARR PINS PINR ZI SUBJECT: MDC LEADER DISCUSSES ZANU-PF STRATEGY, SOUTH AFRICA, THE ZIMBABWEAN MILITARY, AND SECRETARY POWELL'S REMARKS CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 01798 02 OF 02 051323Z -------------- ¶6. (C) POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF RECALLED PRESIDENT MUGABE'S REMARK ON SEVERAL PUBLIC OCCASIONS THAT HE WOULD "NEVER, EVER" ALLOW THE MDC TO GOVERN ZIMBABWE AND ASKED HOW THE MDC WOULD RESPOND IF MUGABE STEALS NEXT YEAR'S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION. TSVANGIRAI RESPONDED THAT HIS PARTY TAKES MUGABE'S THREAT SIPDIS SERIOUSLY, AS IT WOULD BE NAIVE NOT TO, AND REALIZES THAT THERE IS A DIFFERENCE BETWEEN WINNING AN ELECTION AND WINNING POWER. THAT IS WHY HE AND OTHER SENIOR MDC OFFICIALS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO ENSURE THAT THE POLICE AND MILITARY ABIDE BY THE OUTCOME OF THE ELECTION, AN EFFORT WHICH HE CLAIMED HAD BORNE FRUIT. WHILE ACKNOWLEDGING THAT THE MILITARY'S TOP BRASS RETAIN STRONG LOYALTIES TO MUGABE, TSVANGIRAI ASSERTED THAT THREE-QUARTERS OF THE ARMED FORCES ARE "WITH US." TSVANGIRAI'S COURT CASE SIPDIS -------------- ¶7. (C) WHEN ASKED ABOUT THE CHARGES PENDING AGAINST HIM FOR ALLEGEDLY INCITING VIOLENCE, TSVANGIRAI SEEMED GENUINELY UNCONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL OUTCOMES. HE STATED THAT HE THOUGHT HIS LEGAL TEAM SHOULD HAVE AGREED TO PROCEED IN THE HIGH COURT, AS THE CHARGES WERE BASELESS AND THE CASE WOULD HAVE BEEN DISMISSED ON THE MERITS. IN THE END, HOWEVER, TSVANGIRAI YIELDED TO HIS LAWYERS, WHO MAINTAINED THAT THE BEST STRATEGY WAS FIRST TO ASK THE SUPREME COURT TO RULE ON THE CONSTITUTIONALITY OF THE COLONIAL-ERA LAW UNDER WHICH HE HAS BEEN CHARGED. COMMENT -------------- CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 01798 02 OF 02 051323Z ¶8. (C) TSVANGIRAI WAS CONFIDENT AND UPBEAT, BUT OBVIOUSLY DISTRACTED BY HIS IMMINENT DEPARTURE FOR THE WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM IN DURBAN AND, SUBSEQUENTLY, FOR THE UNITED STATES. HE WAS CLEARLY PLEASED ABOUT THE EVOLUTION OF THE MDC'S RELATIONSHIP WITH SOUTH AFRICA, AND THOUGHT THE PRIMARY VALUE OF SECRETARY POWELL'S RECENT REMARKS WAS TO EXERT PRESSURE ON PRETORIA TO "DO SOMETHING" TO STOP THE LAWLESSNESS AND STANCH THE ECONOMIC BLEEDING TO THE NORTH. THE DEATHS OF GEZI, MAHACHI, AND HUNZVI HAVE CAUSED SIGNIFICANT PARANOIA WITHIN THE RULING PARTY, BUT THERE IS NO EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT TSVANGIRAI'S SPECULATION THAT ZANU-PF MIGHT AS A RESULT DECIDE TO JETTISON ITS TIME-TESTED CAMPAIGN TACTICS OF VIOLENCE AND INTIMIDATION. INDEED, INDICATIONS ARE THAT URBAN AND RURAL VIOLENCE WILL CONTINUE TO BE ZANU-PF'S SIGNATURE TACTIC. THAT THE MDC IS MAKING A DETERMINED EFFORT TO CULTIVATE THE MILITARY REVEALS POLITICAL MATURITY AND SAVVY, BUT TSVANGIRAI'S CLAIM THAT THREE-QUARTERS OF THE ARMED FORCES SUPPORT THE MDC STRIKES US AS A BIT OPTIMISTIC. IRVING CONFIDENTIAL >