ZIMBABWE COUP PLOT REPORT TOUCHES A RAW NERVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 001751 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER PASS USAID FOR AFR/SA - C. PALMA PASS AF/PD FOR SANDERS PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 01751 01 OF 02 311430Z E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/31/11 TAGS: PINS PGOV MARR PGOV SOCI PHUM PREL ZI SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE COUP PLOT REPORT TOUCHES A RAW NERVE CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE D'AFFAIRES EARL M. IRVING FOR REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: THE GOVERNMENT OF ZIMBABWE HAS VIGOROUSLY DISPUTED A MAY 29 ARTICLE IN THE BRITISH "GUARDIAN" NEWSPAPER THAT STATES THAT ZIMBABWEAN MILITARY OFFICERS ARE PLANNING A COUP AGAINST PRESIDENT MUGABE. WE HAVE BEEN UNABLE TO CORROBORATE THE SUBSTANCE OF THE REPORT. THE GOZ'S INITIAL DENIALS RELIED EXCLUSIVELY ON COMMENTS BY SOUTH AFRICAN OFFICIALS DISTANCING THEMSELVES FROM THE STORY, FOLLOWED ONLY A SECOND DAY BY THE ZIMBABWEAN DEFENSE FORCE COMMANDER AWKWARDLY DISMISSING THE REPORT. THE "GUARDIAN'S" HARARE STRINGER INFORMED US THAT THE OFF- THE-RECORD SOURCE FOR THE STORY WAS PRESIDENT THABO MBEKI. THE VEHEMENCE OF THE ZIMBABWEAN GOVERNMENT'S REACTION REFLECTS THE INCREASING PARANOIA WITHIN THE RULING PARTY FOLLOWING THE RECENT DEATHS OF TWO MINISTERS IN CAR ACCIDENTS -- HISTORICALLY A FAVORITE ZANU-PF METHOD OF ASSASSINATION -- AND GROWING CONCERNS ABOUT THE LOYALTY OF THE MILITARY RANK-AND-FILE. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (U) AN ARTICLE WRITTEN BY HUGO YOUNG IN THE MAY 29 EDITION OF THE "GUARDIAN" NEWSPAPER REPORTING THAT SENIOR ZIMBABWE MILITARY OFFICERS WILL LAUNCH A COUP CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 01751 01 OF 02 311430Z AGAINST PRESIDENT MUGABE HAS STRUCK A RAW NERVE IN HARARE. THE ARTICLE ALLEGES THAT ZIMBABWEAN MILITARY COMMANDERS INFORMED THE SOUTH AFRICAN GOVERNMENT THAT THEY EXPECT A FOOD CRISIS LATER THIS YEAR WILL PROVE A FLASH POINT THAT COULD RESULT IN FOOD RIOTS. THE ARMY WOULD BE FORCED TO INTERVENE IN SUPPORT OF THE POLICE, BUT WOULD NOT USE FORCE AGAINST ORDINARY ZIMBABWEANS, THE ARTICLE CONTINUES. IF THE MUGABE GOVERNMENT ORDERS THE MILITARY TO SHOOT, IT WOULD INSTEAD OPT TO TAKE POWER, THE "GUARDIAN" STORY ALLEGES, AND SOUTH AFRICAN OFFICIALS BELIEVE THAT SENIOR ZIMBABWEAN MILITARY OFFICERS ALREADY HAVE MADE PLANS TO DO SO. THE BRITISH NEWSPAPER CONTINUED THAT, ACCORDING TO SOUTH AFRICAN INTELLIGENCE, THE COUP LEADER WOULD BE THE COMMANDER OF THE AIR FORCE, AIR MARSHAL PERENCE SHIRI. ¶3. (C) HARARE STRINGER FOR THE "GUARDIAN" NEWSPAPER, ANDREW MELDRUM, TOLD CHARGE ON MAY 30 THAT YOUNG HAD NONE OTHER THAN THABO MBEKI AS HIS OFF-THE-RECORD SOURCE. DIANE CORNER, THE BRITISH DEPUTY HIGH COMMISSIONER IN HARARE, DESCRIBED YOUNG AS A LEADING POLITICAL COMMENTATOR AND, INDEED, ONE OF THE MOST INFLUENTIAL JOURNALISTS IN BRITAIN. SHE CONTINUED THAT WHILE FOREIGN AFFAIRS IS NOT YOUNG'S USUAL BEAT, THE "GUARDIAN" FELT IT HAD TO SEND ONE OF ITS TOP PEOPLE TO SECURE AN INTERVIEW WITH MBEKI PRIOR TO THE SOUTH AFRICAN PRESIDENT'S VISIT TO LONDON IN JUNE. WE HAVE CHECKED OUT THE STORY WITH CONTACTS IN THE ZIMBABWEAN MILITARY, INTELLIGENCE SERVICES AND IN THE SOUTH AFRICAN HIGH COMMISSION, BUT HAVE BEEN UNABLE TO CORROBORATE THE SUBSTANCE OF THE REPORTS. MOREOVER, THE MAY 30 EDITION CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 01751 01 OF 02 311430Z OF THE "GUARDIAN" GAVE PROMINENT PLAY TO STRONG DENIALS FROM SOUTH AFRICAN GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS THAT THEY HAD ANY KNOWLEDGE OF A COUP PLOT. ¶4. (SBU) THE ZIMBABWEAN GOVERNMENT HAS DENIED THIS SPECULATIVE STORY WITH VIGOR. GOVERNMENT-CONTROLLED RADIO, TELEVISION AND PRINT MEDIA HAVE DISMISSED THE ALLEGATIONS WITH CONTEMPT AND QUOTED THE SOUTH AFRICAN LEADERSHIP AS DISTANCING ITSELF FROM THE STORY. ON MAY 31 THE PRO-GOVERNMENT "HERALD" NEWSPAPER QUOTED THE INARTICULATE AND NORMALLY RECLUSIVE DEFENSE FORCE COMMANDER, GENERAL VITALI S ZVINAVASHE, AS MALADROITLY DISMISSING THE COUP PLOT REPORTS. "IT IS NOT TRUE," THE PAPER CITES THE GENERAL AS HAVING SAID, "BECAUSE THAT TYPE OF THING IS NOT BEING EXPECTED IN THIS COUNTRY. I, AS THE COMMANDER, WOULD HAVE KNOWN ABOUT THE COUP. IT IS NOT TRUE." "THE HERALD" ALSO RAN A SCURRILOUS ARTICLE IN ITS MAY 30 EDITION ALLEGING THAT THE "GUARDIAN" PIECE WAS ANOTHER STEP IN THE BRITISH PLOT TO DESTABILIZE AND DISCREDIT PRESIDENT MUGABE'S GOVERNMENT. WE NOTED WITH SOME SURPRISE THAT THE "HERALD'S" INITIAL CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ8893 PAGE 01 HARARE 01751 02 OF 02 311430Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 DODE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 FBIE-00 VC-00 TEDE-00 INR-00 LAB-01 VCE-00 NSAE-00 PM-00 SSO-00 SS-00 STR-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 PRM-01 DRL-02 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /004W -------------- F2C324 311430Z /38 O 311412Z MAY 01 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9000 INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY PRIORITY AMEMBASSY NAIROBI PRIORITY C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 001751 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER PASS USAID FOR AFR/SA - C. PALMA PASS AF/PD FOR SANDERS PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 01751 02 OF 02 311430Z E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/31/11 TAGS: PINS PGOV MARR PGOV SOCI PHUM PREL ZI SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE COUP PLOT REPORT TOUCHES A RAW NERVE REACTION TO THE "GUARDIAN" STORY (MAY 30) RELIED SOLELY UPON SOUTH AFRICAN DENIALS OF THE ALLEGED COUP PLOT. THE "HERALD" REPORTED NO REACTION FROM THE ZIMBABWEAN MILITARY UNTIL THE MAY 31 EDITION. ¶5. (C) COMMENT: THE "GUARDIAN" STORY APPEARED AT A TIME WHEN SENIOR MEMBERS OF THE ZIMBABWEAN GOVERNMENT ARE FEELING MORE PARANOID THAN EVER. IN THE SPACE OF ONE MONTH, TWO CABINET MINISTERS HAVE.PERISHED IN CAR ACCIDENTS, A POLITICAL ASSASSINATION METHOD THAT HAS BEEN USED BY ZANU-PF IN THE PAST. MANY ZIMBABWEANS WITH WHOM WE SPEAK ASSUME THAT THE TWO MINISTERS WERE VICTIMS OF A HIT. THE MOST COMMON SPECULATION IS THAT 36 YEAR- OLD YOUTH DEVELOPMENT, GENDER, AND EMPLOYMENT CREATION MINISTER BORDER GEZI WAS KILLED BY ORDER OF THE RULING PARTY'S OLD GUARD, WHO BELIEVED HE HAD ACQUIRED TOO MUCH INFLUENCE TOO QUICKLY. IN RETURN, ACCORDING TO THIS LINE OF SPECULATION, GEZI'S SUPPORTERS DECIDED TO SEND A MESSAGE BY PLANNING THE MURDER OF MAHACHI, A LEADING MEMBER OF THE OLD GUARD. WE HAVE NO EVIDENCE, HOWEVER, THAT WOULD INDICATE THAT THE DEATHS OF THE TWO MINISTERS WERE ANYTHING OTHER THAN TRAGIC ROAD ACCIDENTS. ¶6. (C) COMMENT CONTINUED: THE GOVERNMENT'S RABID RESPONSE TWO DAYS RUNNING TO THE COUP STORY REVEALS ITS VULNERABILITY AND PERCEPTION THAT IT IS UNDER SIEGE. CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 01751 02 OF 02 311430Z THE VEHEMENT DENIALS MIGHT ALSO REFLECT A CONCERN ABOUT THE LOYALTY OF THE MILITARY'S RANK-AND-FILE. IN ADDITION, THE MILITARY IS SOMETHING OF AN OFF-LIMITS TOPIC FOR THE PRESS HERE. IN JANUARY 1999, AFTER THE INDEPENDENT "THE STANDARD" NEWSPAPER RAN A STORY ABOUT A COUP PLOT, THE ARMY ABDUCTED THE NEWSPAPER'S EDITOR AND THE STORY'S WRITER, HOLDING THEM INCOMMUNICADO FOR A WEEK DURING WHICH TIME SOLDIERS TORTURED THEM. IN MARCH 1999 POLICE ARRESTED THE PUBLISHER AND REPORTER OF "THE MIRROR," AN OSTENSIBLY INDEPENDENT NEWSPAPER, FOR A STORY IT RAN ON A HEADLESS BODY OF SOLDIER HAVING BEEN RETURNED FROM THE CONGO. THE BACKLASH FROM THE HARARE DIPLOMATIC CORPS AND WORLD PRESS FRATERNITY MADE THE GOVERNMENT HERE LOOK RIDICULOUS AND TAUGHT IT TO TREAD LIGHTLY WITH THE SCRIBES. RATHER THAN REMAIN IN SECLUSION AND MOURNING FOR HIS DEAD COMRADE IN ARMS, THE LATE DEFENSE MINISTER MOVEN MAHACHI, PRESIDENT MUGABE BARELY BURIED THE MAN BEFORE JETTING OFF TO JAKARTA FOR THE.G-15 MEETING, AS IF TO SHOW HIS CONTEMPT FOR THE "GUARDIAN'S" ACCOUNT. WE ALSO TAKE MUGABE'S DEPARTURE FOR JAKARTA AS A POSITIVE SIGN: THE PRESIDENT'S CONTINUED ENGAGEMENT WITH THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY IS BETTER NEWS FOR ZIMBABWE THAN HIS WITHDRAWAL INTO A FRIGHTENED AND PARANOID COCOON HERE IN HARARE. END COMMENT. IRVING CONFIDENTIAL >