C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 001672

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS
NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER
USAID FOR AA/AFR VDICKSON-HORTON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/22/11
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINR ZI
SUBJECT: RECENT EVENTS IN ZIMBABWE UNDERMINE RULING
PARTY STRENGTH
CONFIDENTIAL


PAGE 02 HARARE 01672 01 OF 03 221223Z

REF: A) HARARE 1648, B) HARARE 1620, C) HARARE 1535,
D) HARARE 1515, E) HARARE 1470

CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE D'AFFAIRES EARL IRVING FOR REASONS:
1.5 (B) AND (D).


1. (C) SUMMARY: RECENT EVENTS IN ZIMBABWE ARE BEGINNING
TO UNDERMINE A ZANU-PF THAT HAD BEEN INFUSED WITH NEW
CONFIDENCE SINCE ITS DECEMBER 2000 CONGRESS. THE SUDDEN
DEATH OF PARTY COMMISSAR BORDER GEZI, THE RESIGNATION OF
INDUSTRY AND INTERNATIONAL TRADE MINISTER NKOSANA MOYO,
THE LOSS OF THE MASVINGO MAYORSHIP TO THE OPPOSITION
MDC, AND THE FAILED CAMPAIGN TO BOOST URBAN SUPPORT BY
ATTACKING BUSINESSES AND NGOS, ARE EVENTS THAT HAVE
DULLED THE RULING PARTY'S PRESIDENTIAL RACE PROSPECTS.
DOUBTS ARE GROWING ABOUT THE PARTY'S RECENTLY-COMPLETED
RESTRUCTURING EXERCISE, WHICH HAD BEEN LED BY GEZI, IN
WHETHER IT WILL HELP THE PARTY MORE THAN HURT IT IN NEXT
YEAR'S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION. FINGER POINTING IS ON THE
UPSWING, AND OLD DIVISIONS ARE REAPPEARING AS CONCERNS
ABOUT PRESIDENT MUGABE'S CANDIDACY FOR THE ELECTION
RESURFACE. END SUMMARY.

SUDDEN VACANCIES WILL BE HARD TO FILL
--------------


2. (C) THE APRIL 28 DEATH OF YOUTH DEVELOPMENT
MINISTER, PARTY COMMISSAR, AND BINDURA MP BORDER GEZI IN
A CAR ACCIDENT (REF E) LEFT A YAWNING GAP IN THE ZANU-PF
STRUCTURE. IT WILL BE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO FIND AS
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PAGE 03 HARARE 01672 01 OF 03 221223Z
ENTHUSIASTIC A PARTY PROMOTER TO FILL ALL THREE OF
GEZI'S POSITIONS. BRIAN RAFTOPOULOS, A RESEARCH FELLOW
AT THE UNIVERSITY OF ZIMBABWE, TOLD US THERE IS NO ONE
IN THE PARTY WHO CAN ADEQUATELY REPLACE GEZI. WHEN
ASKED WHETHER GEZI'S DEATH HAD NOT BEEN AN ACCIDENT,
RAFTOPOULOS DISCOUNTED THE POPULAR RUMOR, SAYING GEZI
HAD BEEN TOO VALUABLE TO THE PARTY FOR ANY RIVAL TO KILL
HIM, AND IN ANY CASE, WAS TOO YOUNG TO BE A SERIOUS

CONTENDER FOR A MAJOR POSITION OF POWER. FRED SHAVA,
ZANU-PF'S NATIONAL DIRECTOR FOR ADMINISTRATION, TOLD
POLOFF THAT GEZI HAD BEEN A "FANTASTIC ORGANIZER."
SHAVA REFUSED TO SPECULATE ON WHO HIS REPLACEMENT AS
POLITICAL COMMISSAR MIGHT BE, BUT SAID HE WOULD COME
FROM THE PARTY'S CENTRAL COMMITTEE, IF NOT THE SMALLER
POLITBURO. THE PARTY WILL BE LOOKING FOR SOMEONE WITH
GEZI'S "AGILITY," THE DIRECTOR STATED. THE MAY 11
EDITION OF THE "ZIMBABWE INDEPENDENT" LISTED CHINHOYI MP
PHILIP CHIYANGWA, BUSINESSMAN JAMES MAKAMBA, AND
MASHONALAND CENTRAL GOVERNOR ELLIOT MANYIKA AS THE
LIKELIEST SUCCESSORS. MINISTER OF STATE FOR NATIONAL
SECURITY NICHOLAS GOCHE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY AS HE IS
THE ACTING COMMISSAR. AS FOR WHO WOULD BE APPOINTED
YOUTH DEVELOPMENT MINISTER, SHAVA REMARKED THAT THAT IS
PURELY "THE PRESIDENT'S PREROGATIVE."


3. (C) BOTH SHAVA AND RAFTOPOULOS CHARACTERIZED
INDUSTRY AND INTERNATIONAL TRADE MINISTER NKOSANA MOYO'S
RESIGNATION (REF C) AS UNIMPORTANT. SHAVA COMMENTED
THAT IT WAS "OF NO CONSEQUENCE TO THE PARTY," AS MOYO
HAD NOT EVEN BEEN A PARTY MEMBER. RAFTOPOULOS LIKENED
THE RESIGNATION TO A "BLIP ON THE SCREEN" BECAUSE MOYO,
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PAGE 04 HARARE 01672 01 OF 03 221223Z
AS A REFORMER, HAD NOT BEEN ABLE TO DO MUCH ANYWAY.
WHEN ASKED ABOUT RUMORS OF MORE HIGH-PROFILE
RESIGNATIONS, RAFTOPOULOS SAID THAT EVEN IF THEY DID
OCCUR, THEY WOULD NOT LEAD TO "CONVULSIONS" IN THE PARTY
AS THEY HAD IN ZAMBIA'S RULING PARTY. (NOTE: DISSENTION
AMONG SENIOR CIVIL SERVANTS SEEMS TO BE ON THE INCREASE.
MINISTRY OF LOCAL GOVERNMENT PERMANENT SECRETARY FINNIE
MUNYIRA TOLD US MAY 16 THAT HE HAD RECENTLY FILED HIS
RETIREMENT PAPERS BECAUSE HE IS FED UP. A DIRECTOR IN
THE MINISTRY OF FINANCE, AND KEY INTERLOCUTOR BETWEEN
DONORS AND GOZ, HAS ALSO FILED RETIREMENT PAPERS FOR
SIMILAR REASONS. A SENIOR PROVINCIAL OFFICIAL RESIGNED
IN MATABELELAND NORTH DUE TO INTERFERENCE WITH MEDICAL
SERVICES BY WAR VETS. END NOTE.) EDDISON ZVOBGO,
MASVINGO "SUPREMO" AND MP FOR MASVINGO SOUTH, TOLD US
THAT A NUMBER OF GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS, INCLUDING FINANCE
MINISTER SIMBA MAKONI, HAVE RECENTLY ASKED HIM HOW THEY
CAN "GET OUT OF GOVERNMENT."

MORE SETBACKS IN URBAN AREAS
--------------


4. (C) ZANU-PF HAS BEEN HIT WITH MORE SETBACKS IN
RECENT WEEKS WITH THE LOSS OF THE MASVINGO MAYORAL
ELECTION TO THE MDC (REF B), AND THE FAILURE OF ITS

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CONFIDENTIAL PTQ5899

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ACTION AF-00

INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 AMAD-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 INL-00
DINT-00 DODE-00 DOTE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 EUR-00
FAAE-00 FBIE-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00
L-00 VCE-00 MED-07 AC-01 DCP-01 NSAE-00 OIC-02
OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00
SP-00 STR-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 PRM-01
DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /017W
-------------- EF35AD 221223Z /38
P 221207Z MAY 01
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8934
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 03 HARARE 001672

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS
NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER
USAID FOR AA/AFR VDICKSON-HORTON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/22/11
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINR ZI
SUBJECT: RECENT EVENTS IN ZIMBABWE UNDERMINE RULING
PARTY STRENGTH
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02 HARARE 01672 02 OF 03 221223Z

"LABOR RESOLUTION" CAMPAIGN TO BOOST SUPPORT IN THE
CITIES. THE MAY 12-13 LOSS IN MASVINGO IS NOT ONLY
ZANU-PF'S FIRST LOSS OF A MAYORSHIP, IT WAS LOST BY A
TWO-TO-ONE MARGIN -- DESPITE HEAVY CAMPAIGNING AND
INTIMIDATION BY RULING PARTY SUPPORTERS. THE WAR
VETERAN CAMPAIGN TO INTERVENE IN LABOR DISPUTES BETWEEN
FORMER EMPLOYEES AND BUSINESSES AND NGOS HAS BEEN AN
UNMITIGATED DISASTER. JOSEPH CHINOTIMBA AND OTHER WAR
VETERAN LEADERS WERE BOOED OFF THE STAGE WHEN THEY TRIED
TO SPEAK ABOUT THEIR CAMPAIGN AT THE ZCTU'S MAY DAY
RALLY IN HARARE (REF D). MOST POLITICAL OBSERVERS HERE
AGREE THAT THE CAMPAIGN, WITH ITS RESULTING BUSINESS
CLOSURES, HAS HARDENED URBAN PUBLIC OPINION AGAINST
ZANU-PF. REALIZING THAT THE WAR VET LABOR CAMPAIGN WAS
NOT WORKING, AND BENDING TO A GROWING INTERNATIONAL
OUTCRY, GOVERNMENT BACKED OFF AND ORDERED THE ARREST OF
TWO PROVINCIAL ZANU-PF OFFICIALS WHO HAD BEEN INVOLVED
IN DIRECTING THE WAR VETERANS (REF A). THE ZANU-PF
DEPUTY CHAIRMAN FOR HARARE, MIKE MOYO, WAS QUICKLY
RELEASED ON BAIL.

PARTY RESTRUCTURING MORE HURTFUL THAN HELPFUL
--------------


5. (C) THE REORGANIZATION OF PROVINCIAL PARTY
STRUCTURES AND THE REPLACEMENT OF ELECTED PARTY
EXECUTIVES MAY HURT ZANU-PF MORE THAN HELP IT IN THE
RUNUP TO THE 2002 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION. PARTY
COMMISSAR GEZI HAD LED THE CHARGE TO REENERGIZE THE
PARTY AFTER ITS DEVASTATING LOSSES IN THE JUNE 2000
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PAGE 03 HARARE 01672 02 OF 03 221223Z
PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS. ACCORDING TO ZVOBGO, GEZI
"MASSACRED" THE PARTY'S STRUCTURES. NINE OUT OF TEN
LEGITIMATELY ELECTED PROVINCIAL EXECUTIVES WERE
SUMMARILY DISMISSED, AND YOUNGER, MOSTLY INEXPERIENCED
LEADERS WERE IMPOSED BY HARARE. ZVOBGO BELIEVES THIS
WILL BE THE PARTY'S UNDOING IN 2002. "YOU DON'T
DEMOLISH 20-YEAR-OLD STRUCTURES AND EXPECT NEW ONES TO
BE REBUILT OVERNIGHT," ZVOBGO LAMENTED. THE NEW
PROVINCIAL LEADERSHIPS "DON'T KNOW WHERE THE PARTY'S
BEEN OR WHERE IT'S GOING," WHICH IS A SIGN OF THE
GENERAL DECAY OF THE ZANU-PF MACHINE, THE MASVINGO MP
ADDED.


6. (C) WEBSTER SHAMU, ZANU-PF MP FOR CHEGUTU AND OUSTED
MASHONALAND WEST PARTY CHAIRMAN, SANG ZVOBGO'S REFRAIN.
WITH THE PARTY RESTRUCTURING EXERCISE, ZANU-PF WAS
MOVING AWAY FROM DEMOCRATIC STRUCTURES TO MORE
DICTATORIAL ONES, SHAMU COMPLAINED. THE PARTY
LEADERSHIP WAS BYPASSING ITS OWN PROCEDURES TO PUT IN
MORE LOYAL EXECUTIVES. THE MAY 14 "DAILY NEWS"
DESCRIBED THE ELECTION OF CHINHOYI MP PHILLIP CHIYANGWA
AS ZANU-PF'S MASHONALAND WEST CHAIRMAN AS A DIVISIVE AND
CONTENTIOUS AFFAIR. THE ELECTION BY PARTY CADRES HAD TO
BE POSTPONED AFTER WAR VETERANS DISRUPTED THE MEETING TO
PROTEST CHIYANGWA'S CANDIDACY. THE WAR VETERANS
REPORTEDLY COMPLAINED THAT CHIYANGWA WAS "TRYING TO
LEAPFROG TO A SENIOR POSITION IN THE PARTY." (COMMENT:
IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT A SENIOR PARTY OFFICIAL OPPOSED
TO CHIYANGWA SENT THE WAR VETERANS TO THE CHINHOYI
MEETING IN AN ATTEMPT TO DERAIL THE MP'S CANDIDACY. END
COMMENT.) THE ARTICLE ALSO QUOTED A FORMER ZANU-PF MP
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PAGE 04 HARARE 01672 02 OF 03 221223Z
AS SAYING AT THE MEETING "THESE YOUNG PEOPLE WITH MONEY
[CHIYANGWA] ARE KILLING THE PARTY." SHAVA TOLD POLOFF
THAT CHIYANGWA HAS A BIG TASK AHEAD OF HIM, BUT BELIEVES
HE WILL FULFILL HIS DUTIES "WITH ZEAL." THE MAY 22
EDITION OF THE GOVERNMENT-CONTROLLED "THE HERALD"
REPORTED THAT, WITH PARTY ELECTIONS IN BULAWAYO AND
MATABELELAND NORTH ON MAY 19-20, THE RESTRUCTURING
EXERCISE IS COMPLETE.

DOUBTS ABOUT MUGABE CANDIDACY RESURFACE
--------------


7. (U) ZANU-PF'S RECENT SETBACKS APPEAR TO HAVE
REIGNITED THE OLD DEBATE IN THE PARTY ON WHETHER MUGABE
SHOULD BE ITS PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE NEXT YEAR. THE MAY
18-23 "ZIMBABWE INDEPENDENT" REPORTED THAT ZANU-PF
NATIONAL CHAIRMAN JOHN NKOMO STATED THAT MUGABE HAD NOT
YET BEEN NOMINATED AS THE PARTY'S CANDIDATE FOR
PRESIDENT. A FLURRY OF DENIALS SOON CASCADED OUT OF
MUGABE'S INNER CIRCLE, FIRST BY PARTY INFORMATION
SECRETARY NATHAN SHAMUYARIRA, THEN BY INFORMATION

SIPDIS
MINISTER JONATHAN MOYO, SAYING THAT MUGABE WAS ALREADY
THE PARTY'S CANDIDATE AND THERE WOULD BE NO FURTHER
DISCUSSION OF THE MATTER. NKOMO IS CONSIDERED THE
ARCHRIVAL OF SPEAKER OF PARLIAMENT EMMERSON MNANGAGWA,

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CONFIDENTIAL PTQ5900

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ACTION AF-00

INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 AMAD-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 INL-00
DINT-00 DODE-00 DOTE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 EUR-00
FAAE-00 FBIE-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00
L-00 VCE-00 MED-07 AC-01 DCP-01 NSAE-00 OIC-02
OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00
SP-00 STR-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 PRM-01
DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /017W
-------------- EF35C2 221223Z /38
P 221207Z MAY 01
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8935
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 03 HARARE 001672

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS
NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER
USAID FOR AA/AFR VDICKSON-HORTON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/22/11
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINR ZI
SUBJECT: RECENT EVENTS IN ZIMBABWE UNDERMINE RULING
PARTY STRENGTH
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02 HARARE 01672 03 OF 03 221223Z

WHO IS OFTEN SEEN AS PRESIDENT MUGABE'S CHOSEN
SUCCESSOR.


8. (C) ZVOBGO TOLD US THAT THE ONLY WAY TO GET MUGABE
TO STEP DOWN BEFORE THE ELECTION WOULD BE FOR A SERIES
OF "RESPECTABLE" AND INFLUENTIAL PEOPLE IN THE PARTY TO
BEGIN SPEAKING OUT AGAINST MUGABE'S CANDIDACY. ZVOBGO
OPINED THAT THE FIRST PERSON TO CASTIGATE MUGABE WOULD
FACE A STRONG REBUKE, BUT ONCE A SECOND AND THIRD PERSON
JOINED THE CHORUS, IT WOULD BE DIFFICULT FOR MUGABE TO
DROWN OUT THE RESULTING NOISE, AND HE WOULD BE FORCED TO
RELINQUISH HIS CANDIDACY FOR PRESIDENT. ZVOBGO HINTED
THAT HE WOULD BE ONE OF THE FIRST PEOPLE TO SPEAK OUT
AGAINST MUGABE. THE WILY MP EMPHASIZED HOWEVER, THAT
THE CRITICISM COULD NOT BEGIN TOO EARLY BEFORE THE
ELECTION LEST MUGABE HAVE TIME TO DEVISE COUNTERMEASURES
THAT WOULD QUASH ANY PARTY REVOLT. BRIAN RAFTOPOULOS
THEORIZED THAT AFTER MUGABE WON RE-ELECTION AND
LEGITIMIZED HIS WIN WITH BLESSINGS FROM SADC LEADERS, HE
WOULD FEEL COMFORTABLE STEPPING DOWN WITH THE KNOWLEDGE
THAT LAND REDISTRIBUTION WOULD CONTINUE AND THE MDC WAS
DESTROYED. ZVOBGO DISMISSED THIS THEORY, SAYING WHOEVER
BELIEVES IT DOES NOT KNOW MUGABE AS WELL AS HE DOES.
ZVOBGO THINKS MUGABE INTENDS TO COMPLETE HIS NEXT TERM.

COMMENT
--------------


9. (C) THERE ARE NEW SIGNS OF INTERNAL DISSATISFACTION
IN ZANU-PF AND THE GOZ. SENIOR CIVIL SERVANTS ARE
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PAGE 03 HARARE 01672 03 OF 03 221223Z
LEAVING AGAINST A BACKDROP OF A PURGE OF PARTY
STRUCTURES THAT HAS LEFT A LOT OF BRUISED PEOPLE BEHIND.
ALTHOUGH OUR CONTACTS DOWNPLAYED NKOSANA MOYO'S
RESIGNATION, IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO SET OFF A CHAIN
REACTION OF OTHER HIGH-PROFILE RESIGNATIONS IN
GOVERNMENT OR CABINET. ONE OR TWO MORE WOULD FURTHER
DAMPEN MORALE IN ZANU-PF AS A WHOLE, AND INCREASE THE
LEVEL OF PARANOIA AMONG THE TOP LEADERSHIP. MORE
MINISTERS WOULD COME UNDER SUSPICION OF DISLOYALTY, AND
MORE, SUCH AS FORMER LANDS AND AGRICULTURE MINISTER
KUMBIRAI KANGAI, COULD FIND THEMSELVES ON THE WRONG END
OF A CORRUPTION INVESTIGATION. WAR VETERANS HAVE
ACCUSED REGISTRAR-GENERAL TOBAIWA MUDEDE, A PARTY
LOYALIST AND STALWART, OF RIGGING THE MASVINGO MAYORAL
ELECTION. THE LOSS OF THE BULAWAYO MAYORAL ELECTION --
SCHEDULED FOR JUNE -- AND ADDITIONAL RECRIMINATIONS FROM
THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY -- PARTICULARLY THE EU, IF
IT DECIDES TO IMPOSE SANCTIONS NEXT MONTH -- WOULD WEIGH
HEAVILY ON ZANU-PF LEADERS, ESPECIALLY MUGABE.
UNFORTUNATELY, THE LIKELY REACTION FROM ZANU-PF WILL BE
TO CIRCLE THE WAGONS AND RETURN TO THE TRIED AND TRUE
TACTICS OF VIOLENCE AND INTIMIDATION AGAINST RURAL
RESIDENTS. END COMMENT.

IRVING

CONFIDENTIAL

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