RECENT EVENTS IN ZIMBABWE UNDERMINE RULING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 001672 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER USAID FOR AA/AFR VDICKSON-HORTON E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/22/11 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINR ZI SUBJECT: RECENT EVENTS IN ZIMBABWE UNDERMINE RULING PARTY STRENGTH CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 01672 01 OF 03 221223Z REF: A) HARARE 1648, B) HARARE 1620, C) HARARE 1535, D) HARARE 1515, E) HARARE 1470 CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE D'AFFAIRES EARL IRVING FOR REASONS: 1.5 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: RECENT EVENTS IN ZIMBABWE ARE BEGINNING TO UNDERMINE A ZANU-PF THAT HAD BEEN INFUSED WITH NEW CONFIDENCE SINCE ITS DECEMBER 2000 CONGRESS. THE SUDDEN DEATH OF PARTY COMMISSAR BORDER GEZI, THE RESIGNATION OF INDUSTRY AND INTERNATIONAL TRADE MINISTER NKOSANA MOYO, THE LOSS OF THE MASVINGO MAYORSHIP TO THE OPPOSITION MDC, AND THE FAILED CAMPAIGN TO BOOST URBAN SUPPORT BY ATTACKING BUSINESSES AND NGOS, ARE EVENTS THAT HAVE DULLED THE RULING PARTY'S PRESIDENTIAL RACE PROSPECTS. DOUBTS ARE GROWING ABOUT THE PARTY'S RECENTLY-COMPLETED RESTRUCTURING EXERCISE, WHICH HAD BEEN LED BY GEZI, IN WHETHER IT WILL HELP THE PARTY MORE THAN HURT IT IN NEXT YEAR'S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION. FINGER POINTING IS ON THE UPSWING, AND OLD DIVISIONS ARE REAPPEARING AS CONCERNS ABOUT PRESIDENT MUGABE'S CANDIDACY FOR THE ELECTION RESURFACE. END SUMMARY. SUDDEN VACANCIES WILL BE HARD TO FILL -------------- ¶2. (C) THE APRIL 28 DEATH OF YOUTH DEVELOPMENT MINISTER, PARTY COMMISSAR, AND BINDURA MP BORDER GEZI IN A CAR ACCIDENT (REF E) LEFT A YAWNING GAP IN THE ZANU-PF STRUCTURE. IT WILL BE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO FIND AS CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 01672 01 OF 03 221223Z ENTHUSIASTIC A PARTY PROMOTER TO FILL ALL THREE OF GEZI'S POSITIONS. BRIAN RAFTOPOULOS, A RESEARCH FELLOW AT THE UNIVERSITY OF ZIMBABWE, TOLD US THERE IS NO ONE IN THE PARTY WHO CAN ADEQUATELY REPLACE GEZI. WHEN ASKED WHETHER GEZI'S DEATH HAD NOT BEEN AN ACCIDENT, RAFTOPOULOS DISCOUNTED THE POPULAR RUMOR, SAYING GEZI HAD BEEN TOO VALUABLE TO THE PARTY FOR ANY RIVAL TO KILL HIM, AND IN ANY CASE, WAS TOO YOUNG TO BE A SERIOUS CONTENDER FOR A MAJOR POSITION OF POWER. FRED SHAVA, ZANU-PF'S NATIONAL DIRECTOR FOR ADMINISTRATION, TOLD POLOFF THAT GEZI HAD BEEN A "FANTASTIC ORGANIZER." SHAVA REFUSED TO SPECULATE ON WHO HIS REPLACEMENT AS POLITICAL COMMISSAR MIGHT BE, BUT SAID HE WOULD COME FROM THE PARTY'S CENTRAL COMMITTEE, IF NOT THE SMALLER POLITBURO. THE PARTY WILL BE LOOKING FOR SOMEONE WITH GEZI'S "AGILITY," THE DIRECTOR STATED. THE MAY 11 EDITION OF THE "ZIMBABWE INDEPENDENT" LISTED CHINHOYI MP PHILIP CHIYANGWA, BUSINESSMAN JAMES MAKAMBA, AND MASHONALAND CENTRAL GOVERNOR ELLIOT MANYIKA AS THE LIKELIEST SUCCESSORS. MINISTER OF STATE FOR NATIONAL SECURITY NICHOLAS GOCHE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY AS HE IS THE ACTING COMMISSAR. AS FOR WHO WOULD BE APPOINTED YOUTH DEVELOPMENT MINISTER, SHAVA REMARKED THAT THAT IS PURELY "THE PRESIDENT'S PREROGATIVE." ¶3. (C) BOTH SHAVA AND RAFTOPOULOS CHARACTERIZED INDUSTRY AND INTERNATIONAL TRADE MINISTER NKOSANA MOYO'S RESIGNATION (REF C) AS UNIMPORTANT. SHAVA COMMENTED THAT IT WAS "OF NO CONSEQUENCE TO THE PARTY," AS MOYO HAD NOT EVEN BEEN A PARTY MEMBER. RAFTOPOULOS LIKENED THE RESIGNATION TO A "BLIP ON THE SCREEN" BECAUSE MOYO, CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 01672 01 OF 03 221223Z AS A REFORMER, HAD NOT BEEN ABLE TO DO MUCH ANYWAY. WHEN ASKED ABOUT RUMORS OF MORE HIGH-PROFILE RESIGNATIONS, RAFTOPOULOS SAID THAT EVEN IF THEY DID OCCUR, THEY WOULD NOT LEAD TO "CONVULSIONS" IN THE PARTY AS THEY HAD IN ZAMBIA'S RULING PARTY. (NOTE: DISSENTION AMONG SENIOR CIVIL SERVANTS SEEMS TO BE ON THE INCREASE. MINISTRY OF LOCAL GOVERNMENT PERMANENT SECRETARY FINNIE MUNYIRA TOLD US MAY 16 THAT HE HAD RECENTLY FILED HIS RETIREMENT PAPERS BECAUSE HE IS FED UP. A DIRECTOR IN THE MINISTRY OF FINANCE, AND KEY INTERLOCUTOR BETWEEN DONORS AND GOZ, HAS ALSO FILED RETIREMENT PAPERS FOR SIMILAR REASONS. A SENIOR PROVINCIAL OFFICIAL RESIGNED IN MATABELELAND NORTH DUE TO INTERFERENCE WITH MEDICAL SERVICES BY WAR VETS. END NOTE.) EDDISON ZVOBGO, MASVINGO "SUPREMO" AND MP FOR MASVINGO SOUTH, TOLD US THAT A NUMBER OF GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS, INCLUDING FINANCE MINISTER SIMBA MAKONI, HAVE RECENTLY ASKED HIM HOW THEY CAN "GET OUT OF GOVERNMENT." MORE SETBACKS IN URBAN AREAS -------------- ¶4. (C) ZANU-PF HAS BEEN HIT WITH MORE SETBACKS IN RECENT WEEKS WITH THE LOSS OF THE MASVINGO MAYORAL ELECTION TO THE MDC (REF B),AND THE FAILURE OF ITS CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ5899 PAGE 01 HARARE 01672 02 OF 03 221223Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 AMAD-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 INL-00 DINT-00 DODE-00 DOTE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 EUR-00 FAAE-00 FBIE-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 L-00 VCE-00 MED-07 AC-01 DCP-01 NSAE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 STR-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 PRM-01 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /017W -------------- EF35AD 221223Z /38 P 221207Z MAY 01 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8934 INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY AMEMBASSY NAIROBI C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 03 HARARE 001672 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER USAID FOR AA/AFR VDICKSON-HORTON E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/22/11 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINR ZI SUBJECT: RECENT EVENTS IN ZIMBABWE UNDERMINE RULING PARTY STRENGTH CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 01672 02 OF 03 221223Z "LABOR RESOLUTION" CAMPAIGN TO BOOST SUPPORT IN THE CITIES. THE MAY 12-13 LOSS IN MASVINGO IS NOT ONLY ZANU-PF'S FIRST LOSS OF A MAYORSHIP, IT WAS LOST BY A TWO-TO-ONE MARGIN -- DESPITE HEAVY CAMPAIGNING AND INTIMIDATION BY RULING PARTY SUPPORTERS. THE WAR VETERAN CAMPAIGN TO INTERVENE IN LABOR DISPUTES BETWEEN FORMER EMPLOYEES AND BUSINESSES AND NGOS HAS BEEN AN UNMITIGATED DISASTER. JOSEPH CHINOTIMBA AND OTHER WAR VETERAN LEADERS WERE BOOED OFF THE STAGE WHEN THEY TRIED TO SPEAK ABOUT THEIR CAMPAIGN AT THE ZCTU'S MAY DAY RALLY IN HARARE (REF D). MOST POLITICAL OBSERVERS HERE AGREE THAT THE CAMPAIGN, WITH ITS RESULTING BUSINESS CLOSURES, HAS HARDENED URBAN PUBLIC OPINION AGAINST ZANU-PF. REALIZING THAT THE WAR VET LABOR CAMPAIGN WAS NOT WORKING, AND BENDING TO A GROWING INTERNATIONAL OUTCRY, GOVERNMENT BACKED OFF AND ORDERED THE ARREST OF TWO PROVINCIAL ZANU-PF OFFICIALS WHO HAD BEEN INVOLVED IN DIRECTING THE WAR VETERANS (REF A). THE ZANU-PF DEPUTY CHAIRMAN FOR HARARE, MIKE MOYO, WAS QUICKLY RELEASED ON BAIL. PARTY RESTRUCTURING MORE HURTFUL THAN HELPFUL -------------- ¶5. (C) THE REORGANIZATION OF PROVINCIAL PARTY STRUCTURES AND THE REPLACEMENT OF ELECTED PARTY EXECUTIVES MAY HURT ZANU-PF MORE THAN HELP IT IN THE RUNUP TO THE 2002 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION. PARTY COMMISSAR GEZI HAD LED THE CHARGE TO REENERGIZE THE PARTY AFTER ITS DEVASTATING LOSSES IN THE JUNE 2000 CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 01672 02 OF 03 221223Z PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS. ACCORDING TO ZVOBGO, GEZI "MASSACRED" THE PARTY'S STRUCTURES. NINE OUT OF TEN LEGITIMATELY ELECTED PROVINCIAL EXECUTIVES WERE SUMMARILY DISMISSED, AND YOUNGER, MOSTLY INEXPERIENCED LEADERS WERE IMPOSED BY HARARE. ZVOBGO BELIEVES THIS WILL BE THE PARTY'S UNDOING IN 2002. "YOU DON'T DEMOLISH 20-YEAR-OLD STRUCTURES AND EXPECT NEW ONES TO BE REBUILT OVERNIGHT," ZVOBGO LAMENTED. THE NEW PROVINCIAL LEADERSHIPS "DON'T KNOW WHERE THE PARTY'S BEEN OR WHERE IT'S GOING," WHICH IS A SIGN OF THE GENERAL DECAY OF THE ZANU-PF MACHINE, THE MASVINGO MP ADDED. ¶6. (C) WEBSTER SHAMU, ZANU-PF MP FOR CHEGUTU AND OUSTED MASHONALAND WEST PARTY CHAIRMAN, SANG ZVOBGO'S REFRAIN. WITH THE PARTY RESTRUCTURING EXERCISE, ZANU-PF WAS MOVING AWAY FROM DEMOCRATIC STRUCTURES TO MORE DICTATORIAL ONES, SHAMU COMPLAINED. THE PARTY LEADERSHIP WAS BYPASSING ITS OWN PROCEDURES TO PUT IN MORE LOYAL EXECUTIVES. THE MAY 14 "DAILY NEWS" DESCRIBED THE ELECTION OF CHINHOYI MP PHILLIP CHIYANGWA AS ZANU-PF'S MASHONALAND WEST CHAIRMAN AS A DIVISIVE AND CONTENTIOUS AFFAIR. THE ELECTION BY PARTY CADRES HAD TO BE POSTPONED AFTER WAR VETERANS DISRUPTED THE MEETING TO PROTEST CHIYANGWA'S CANDIDACY. THE WAR VETERANS REPORTEDLY COMPLAINED THAT CHIYANGWA WAS "TRYING TO LEAPFROG TO A SENIOR POSITION IN THE PARTY." (COMMENT: IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT A SENIOR PARTY OFFICIAL OPPOSED TO CHIYANGWA SENT THE WAR VETERANS TO THE CHINHOYI MEETING IN AN ATTEMPT TO DERAIL THE MP'S CANDIDACY. END COMMENT.) THE ARTICLE ALSO QUOTED A FORMER ZANU-PF MP CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 01672 02 OF 03 221223Z AS SAYING AT THE MEETING "THESE YOUNG PEOPLE WITH MONEY [CHIYANGWA] ARE KILLING THE PARTY." SHAVA TOLD POLOFF THAT CHIYANGWA HAS A BIG TASK AHEAD OF HIM, BUT BELIEVES HE WILL FULFILL HIS DUTIES "WITH ZEAL." THE MAY 22 EDITION OF THE GOVERNMENT-CONTROLLED "THE HERALD" REPORTED THAT, WITH PARTY ELECTIONS IN BULAWAYO AND MATABELELAND NORTH ON MAY 19-20, THE RESTRUCTURING EXERCISE IS COMPLETE. DOUBTS ABOUT MUGABE CANDIDACY RESURFACE -------------- ¶7. (U) ZANU-PF'S RECENT SETBACKS APPEAR TO HAVE REIGNITED THE OLD DEBATE IN THE PARTY ON WHETHER MUGABE SHOULD BE ITS PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE NEXT YEAR. THE MAY 18-23 "ZIMBABWE INDEPENDENT" REPORTED THAT ZANU-PF NATIONAL CHAIRMAN JOHN NKOMO STATED THAT MUGABE HAD NOT YET BEEN NOMINATED AS THE PARTY'S CANDIDATE FOR PRESIDENT. A FLURRY OF DENIALS SOON CASCADED OUT OF MUGABE'S INNER CIRCLE, FIRST BY PARTY INFORMATION SECRETARY NATHAN SHAMUYARIRA, THEN BY INFORMATION SIPDIS MINISTER JONATHAN MOYO, SAYING THAT MUGABE WAS ALREADY THE PARTY'S CANDIDATE AND THERE WOULD BE NO FURTHER DISCUSSION OF THE MATTER. NKOMO IS CONSIDERED THE ARCHRIVAL OF SPEAKER OF PARLIAMENT EMMERSON MNANGAGWA, CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ5900 PAGE 01 HARARE 01672 03 OF 03 221223Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 AMAD-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 INL-00 DINT-00 DODE-00 DOTE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 EUR-00 FAAE-00 FBIE-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 L-00 VCE-00 MED-07 AC-01 DCP-01 NSAE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 STR-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 PRM-01 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /017W -------------- EF35C2 221223Z /38 P 221207Z MAY 01 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8935 INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY AMEMBASSY NAIROBI C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 03 HARARE 001672 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER USAID FOR AA/AFR VDICKSON-HORTON E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/22/11 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINR ZI SUBJECT: RECENT EVENTS IN ZIMBABWE UNDERMINE RULING PARTY STRENGTH CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 01672 03 OF 03 221223Z WHO IS OFTEN SEEN AS PRESIDENT MUGABE'S CHOSEN SUCCESSOR. ¶8. (C) ZVOBGO TOLD US THAT THE ONLY WAY TO GET MUGABE TO STEP DOWN BEFORE THE ELECTION WOULD BE FOR A SERIES OF "RESPECTABLE" AND INFLUENTIAL PEOPLE IN THE PARTY TO BEGIN SPEAKING OUT AGAINST MUGABE'S CANDIDACY. ZVOBGO OPINED THAT THE FIRST PERSON TO CASTIGATE MUGABE WOULD FACE A STRONG REBUKE, BUT ONCE A SECOND AND THIRD PERSON JOINED THE CHORUS, IT WOULD BE DIFFICULT FOR MUGABE TO DROWN OUT THE RESULTING NOISE, AND HE WOULD BE FORCED TO RELINQUISH HIS CANDIDACY FOR PRESIDENT. ZVOBGO HINTED THAT HE WOULD BE ONE OF THE FIRST PEOPLE TO SPEAK OUT AGAINST MUGABE. THE WILY MP EMPHASIZED HOWEVER, THAT THE CRITICISM COULD NOT BEGIN TOO EARLY BEFORE THE ELECTION LEST MUGABE HAVE TIME TO DEVISE COUNTERMEASURES THAT WOULD QUASH ANY PARTY REVOLT. BRIAN RAFTOPOULOS THEORIZED THAT AFTER MUGABE WON RE-ELECTION AND LEGITIMIZED HIS WIN WITH BLESSINGS FROM SADC LEADERS, HE WOULD FEEL COMFORTABLE STEPPING DOWN WITH THE KNOWLEDGE THAT LAND REDISTRIBUTION WOULD CONTINUE AND THE MDC WAS DESTROYED. ZVOBGO DISMISSED THIS THEORY, SAYING WHOEVER BELIEVES IT DOES NOT KNOW MUGABE AS WELL AS HE DOES. ZVOBGO THINKS MUGABE INTENDS TO COMPLETE HIS NEXT TERM. COMMENT -------------- ¶9. (C) THERE ARE NEW SIGNS OF INTERNAL DISSATISFACTION IN ZANU-PF AND THE GOZ. SENIOR CIVIL SERVANTS ARE CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 01672 03 OF 03 221223Z LEAVING AGAINST A BACKDROP OF A PURGE OF PARTY STRUCTURES THAT HAS LEFT A LOT OF BRUISED PEOPLE BEHIND. ALTHOUGH OUR CONTACTS DOWNPLAYED NKOSANA MOYO'S RESIGNATION, IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO SET OFF A CHAIN REACTION OF OTHER HIGH-PROFILE RESIGNATIONS IN GOVERNMENT OR CABINET. ONE OR TWO MORE WOULD FURTHER DAMPEN MORALE IN ZANU-PF AS A WHOLE, AND INCREASE THE LEVEL OF PARANOIA AMONG THE TOP LEADERSHIP. MORE MINISTERS WOULD COME UNDER SUSPICION OF DISLOYALTY, AND MORE, SUCH AS FORMER LANDS AND AGRICULTURE MINISTER KUMBIRAI KANGAI, COULD FIND THEMSELVES ON THE WRONG END OF A CORRUPTION INVESTIGATION. WAR VETERANS HAVE ACCUSED REGISTRAR-GENERAL TOBAIWA MUDEDE, A PARTY LOYALIST AND STALWART, OF RIGGING THE MASVINGO MAYORAL ELECTION. THE LOSS OF THE BULAWAYO MAYORAL ELECTION -- SCHEDULED FOR JUNE -- AND ADDITIONAL RECRIMINATIONS FROM THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY -- PARTICULARLY THE EU, IF IT DECIDES TO IMPOSE SANCTIONS NEXT MONTH -- WOULD WEIGH HEAVILY ON ZANU-PF LEADERS, ESPECIALLY MUGABE. UNFORTUNATELY, THE LIKELY REACTION FROM ZANU-PF WILL BE TO CIRCLE THE WAGONS AND RETURN TO THE TRIED AND TRUE TACTICS OF VIOLENCE AND INTIMIDATION AGAINST RURAL RESIDENTS. END COMMENT. IRVING CONFIDENTIAL >